Who will win the Giro?

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

Valverde hasn't cracked hard on a mountain day in 8 years. It's been a very long time since he had a really bad day in a grand tour.

I'm not confident of Nibali having the legs, really. This is going to be close, and it's probably going to come down to the dumb luck of who happens to have a good day on a hard stage. Quite possibly Sunday.

He cracked a bit on the Hautacam but yeah, that wasn't a really bad day. Sunday is overrated, it's only going to be crucial if someone cracks on stage 14.

He was flatout mediocre in that Tour, especially the Pyrenees, he simply just wasn't better. Not a crack at all.

 

[staubsauger]

Seriously, if Nibali and Valverde are just waiting for each other to crack, Kruijswijk might really win the Giro since the upcoming mountain stages should favor diesel climbers like him!

They need to attack and they'll gonna do sooner or later.

 

[gunara]

It's still not too easy for me to imagine Valverde bossing Giro's - or any grand tour's - big mountain stages, Nibali might not be on form, Landa is gone, and thinking of other names available...well...could this be a race of climbing mediocrity? Not that it should be necessarily not fun, though.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

Valverde hasn't cracked hard on a mountain day in 8 years. It's been a very long time since he had a really bad day in a grand tour.

I'm not confident of Nibali having the legs, really. This is going to be close, and it's probably going to come down to the dumb luck of who happens to have a good day on a hard stage. Quite possibly Sunday.

This is confusion of definition. Valverde usually has a semi-bad day in the mountain. Never has cracked with the terminology that you mean. But he usually has his bad day that would be enough to lose the Giro. Otherwise he is such a consistent rider.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

Valverde hasn't cracked hard on a mountain day in 8 years. It's been a very long time since he had a really bad day in a grand tour.

I'm not confident of Nibali having the legs, really. This is going to be close, and it's probably going to come down to the dumb luck of who happens to have a good day on a hard stage. Quite possibly Sunday.

This is confusion of definition. Valverde usually has a semi-bad day in the mountain. Never has cracked with the terminology that you mean. But he usually has his bad day that would be enough to lose the Giro. Otherwise he is such a consistent rider.

Sure, but I don't remember him having one such since 2008.
Sure he gets dropped, but that's always a better climber or one in better form who is climbing better than him throughout the three weeks

 

[Escarabajo]

Vuelta last year.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Vuelta last year.

But he also never really had a very strong stage last year

 

[PremierAndrew]

I really think this could be Krujswijk's year

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I really think this could be Krujswijk's year

He certainly is looking good but I can't see him drop Nibali who oddly enough seems more concerned about Chavez from the outsiders.

 

[yaco]

Think the MTT will be significant - My experience is that its not always the strongest or best climbers who always perform best.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I really think this could be Krujswijk's year

I'm sensing a surprise win - Kruijswijk or Chavito
They both look really strong

 

[SevenTimeTdfChamp]

This is Valverdes giro. He looks strong and as usually he is playing it smart and showing what a masterfull tactition he is. With 2 movistar in top 3 they can take turns attacking forceing the others to chase. If i were a gc contendor like majka, and valverde or amador was up the road, i would just look at nibali and not help him chase . But that is probably not gonna happend because top 10 means much to the "secundary" gc riders..

About the 2000m thing.. it didnt seem like a problem in the tour and dont forget valverde has won a gt before

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

This is Valverdes giro. He looks strong and as usually he is playing it smart and showing what a masterfull tactition he is. With 2 movistar in top 3 they can take turns attacking forceing the others to chase. If i were a gc contendor like majka, and valverde or amador was up the road, i would just look at nibali and not help him chase . But that is probably not gonna happend because top 10 means much to the "secundary" gc riders..

About the 2000m thing.. it didnt seem like a problem in the tour and dont forget valverde has won a gt before

Why would someone like Majka not chase Amador? Surely Majka will back himself to beat Amador in GC? There is no (known) spite between Nibali and Majka so why would he help Amador? Amador is likely to drop in the mountains somewhere. Nibali is expecting this so doesn't chase on. Chavez and Kruijswijk (both more likely to win than Majka IMO) also. They'll chase Bala attacks, as they still, rightly, believe they can win.

 

[bassano]

krujswijk? seriously?
I can Imagine majka or valvedre making problems to Nibali which is really man to beat right now, chaves is also looking good but I do not believe he will be so consistent during last week
can not wait for friday and especially saturday to see finally big show

 

[IndianCyclist]

If Nibali doesn't get dropped on Friday & Saturday, he will win the Giro. Right now he has a *** in his armor. Movistar have to make the stage hard in order to do that. Valverde is now a given to podum so he should focus on winning.

 

[Vass43]

Re:

If Nibali doesn't get dropped on Friday & Saturday, he will win the Giro. Right now he has a *** in his armor. Movistar have to make the stage hard in order to do that. Valverde is now a given to podum so he should focus on winning.

This.
I honestly do not understand some of the negativity on here about Nibali...he was the man to beat at the start of the Giro and is still the man to beat now. he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Things are panning out beautifully for Nibali.
With Landa out obviously Valverde is his main rival now but i just think Nibali has too much class for him.
Nibali seems to be coasting along and saving his energy for the final week when lots of other riders will be wilting - and this is when the shark will attack - and likely on a downhill section where he is simply better than the other riders. If he can stay healthy I really think he will win it again this year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I will cry for 1 week straight in a corner if Kruijswijk wins.

I agree with the above. I have a feeling the Giro will decided on stage 13-16 instead of the 19 and 20. Bala have this guys, just you wait and see!

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Vuelta last year.

What day did he crack? He was consistently dropped stage after stage by several riders in better form (and not injured, which he was)

 

[Nirvana]

After yesterday i think that Valverde is going to lose this Giro because of the presence of Amador doesn't allow him to ride how he would.

 

[hrotha]

Re:

After yesterday i think that Valverde is going to lose this Giro because of the presence of Amador doesn't allow him to ride how he would.

On the contrary, Amador presents Valverde with the perfect excuse to ride how he would.

Not how he should, mind.

 

[Nirvana]

Yesterday he clarly wanted to attack in the final but he can't and he was also damaged when Amador helped Jungels to gain time.

If Movistar think that Amador could be a contender at least at the same level of Valverde they are wrong, he was dropped on the sterrato then he returned in the contenders group only thanks to his descending skills, yesterday the same on Forcella Mostaccin, he could pay minutes already tomorrow if Astana ride hard the Dolomites.
The only way he could benefit is in the case that Astana want to ride conservative because Nibali can't do more, but also in this case Chaves, Kruijwijk, or others could ride hard and drop him.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Yesterday he clarly wanted to attack in the final but he can't and he was also damaged when Amador helped Jungels to gain time.

He was in front with Nibali and Chaves, what better chance to attack?

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Yesterday he clarly wanted to attack in the final but he can't and he was also damaged when Amador helped Jungels to gain time.

If Movistar think that Amador could be a contender at least at the same level of Valverde they are wrong, he was dropped on the sterrato then he returned in the contenders group only thanks to his descending skills, yesterday the same on Forcella Mostaccin, he could pay minutes already tomorrow if Astana ride hard the Dolomites.
The only way he could benefit is in the case that Astana want to ride conservative because Nibali can't do more, but also in this case Chaves, Kruijwijk, or others could ride hard and drop him.

No, they don't think that. Truth is Valverde likes Amador being high in the GC, so he can put pressure on Nibali and other GC favorites. If Jungels drops on friday, I guarantee Amador will attack to force Nibali or Kruijswijk to chase.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Re: Re:

If Nibali doesn't get dropped on Friday & Saturday, he will win the Giro. Right now he has a *** in his armor. Movistar have to make the stage hard in order to do that. Valverde is now a given to podum so he should focus on winning.

This.
I honestly do not understand some of the negativity on here about Nibali...he was the man to beat at the start of the Giro and is still the man to beat now. he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Things are panning out beautifully for Nibali.
With Landa out obviously Valverde is his main rival now but i just think Nibali has too much class for him.
Nibali seems to be coasting along and saving his energy for the final week when lots of other riders will be wilting - and this is when the shark will attack - and likely on a downhill section where he is simply better than the other riders. If he can stay healthy I really think he will win it again this year.

It is true that Nibali is much better than Valverde. But since 2014 Nibali's form is suspect. What he and Slongo do w.r.t peaking, i donot know but it leaves him vulnerable to attacks in the early stages. Perfect eg. is stage 6 attack. Regarding negativity, some of his antics of late have soured people around here.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

What day did he crack? He was consistently dropped stage after stage by several riders in better form (and not injured, which he was)

I might use that one if the future. I didn't crack, I was just dropped by others with better form. Like that mean-looking twelve year old on that really cool fat bike.