Who will win the Tour 2013 - Wiggins or Contador?

[Mount Megiddo]

We can forget forecasting the winner of this tour. With another 50k time trial, Wiggins has it in the bag, barring crash or injury. The question really now is who will win the next one.

I think Evans has returned to the form he showed before 2011, and at his age is unlikely to get any better. 2011 was the peak of his career. Schlecks never reach their potential and can't TT. So to me it's looking like a straight fight between Wiggins and Contador, and possibly Froome on another team.

People will reflexively say Contador easily has the edge, but he barely beat Andy Schleck in 2010 and cracked in 2011. It's by no means certain he is the automatic favorite. I don't think he will be much better than Evans in the TTs so it be all down to how much he can put into Wiggins and Froome in the mountains, and it's an open question as to whether he will be able to pulloff alien style attacks to achieve this in today's climate. I think Wiggins will be the bookies favorite.

Wiggins and Sky look likely to dominate the tour for the next few years in my reckoning.

 

[The Hitch]

This is the one that matters. We can see this in the popularity of the Contador and Schleck threads throughout June and July, even after it became clear both were out of this years edition.

The Great One is clearly the favourite with the tt but Schleck will push him hard in the mountains.

Wiggins only chance is that they both get injured.

 

[LaFlorecita]

With a route like this year's - Wiggins by a huge margin.

With a better, more balanced route - Alberto.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Oh, by the way I think Alberto will be the bookies' favourite

 

[Peccio89]

It will be Andy Shleck big year, smashing everybody on the mountains.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It will be Andy Shleck big year, smashing everybody on the mountains.

As someone (Publicus?) said in the Andy thread, if Andy's season is over already because of his injury, he will have a hard time in 2013.

 

[Gloin22]

Shouldn't an option be Froome ?

Alberto by long way imo if stays healthy.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Contador or Froome.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Froome doesn't have a big chance imo.

 

[Cervelo77]

I have no idea and neither does anyone else at this point. Too many unknown factors between now and then.

But Contador obviously.

 

[Carols]

Depends on the parcours...but I'll go with Contador smashing Wiggo into little Wiggo pieces

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Who's Contador?

 

[LaFlorecita]

I do expect next year's Tour to be a mountain heavy Tour. So Alberto or Andy depending on Andy's situation. Or maybe the Tour organisers really enjoy Wiggo smashing it apart in the TTs.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Who's Contador?

Funny.

 

[H2OUUP2]

With a route like this year's - Wiggins by a huge margin.

With a better, more balanced route - Alberto.

With a route like this year's, I would give the nod to wiggo. Not a huge margin though.

Contador on a more balanced route by a huge margin.

 

[PosterBill]

Let's see how Contador is performing upon his return. But it will be interesting. I kind of hope Alberto is climbing like 2010 so it will give some contrast to the tour. A lot riding on his return IMHO

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Can someone point me towards the "who will win the TDF 2020" topic? Thanks.

 

[mr. tibbs]

With a route like this year's - Wiggins by a huge margin.

With a better, more balanced route - Alberto.

No way! I think Contador is the only rider who could've beaten Wiggins this year. (I'd like to say Andy could have, but I doubt he'd put in the attacks needed.) He'll definitely beat him next year--regardless of the route.

Anyway, Hitch nails it on the first post when he posits a Contador/Schleck showdown:

[...]
Wiggins only chance is that they both get injured.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Let's see how Contador is performing upon his return. But it will be interesting. I kind of hope Alberto is climbing like 2010 so it will give some contrast to the tour. A lot riding on his return IMHO

I kind of hope his climbing is like in 2011 so there's at least a battle between Wiggo and Alberto.

 

[Mount Megiddo]

Maybe people are stuck in the past here. I can't see either Schleck or Contador putting minutes into Wiggins in the mountains. That type of riding happens less and less in the big tours these days, and it forgets what a great climber Wiggins now is in any event.

What we've seen from Wiggins today, smashing cancellara in the TT, has taken it to a new level. The only time AC beat FC in a TT was by a second, there was a big hill in the middle of the course, and it was in the different era or the sport (ah hem). AC is almost certainly going to lose big time to Wiggins and will struggle to get it back. Plus no team out there is as good as sky. Saxo bank can't compete.

 

[LaFlorecita]

No way! I think Contador is the only rider who could've beaten Wiggins this year. (I'd like to say Andy could have, but I doubt he'd put in the attacks needed.) He'll definitely beat him next year--regardless of the route.

No - Alberto would've lost 2 minutes in today's TT and 3, 3.5 minutes in the last TT. No way he could've gained 5 minutes in the mountains.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Maybe people are stuck in the past here. I can't see either Schleck or Contador putting minutes into Wiggins in the mountains. That type of riding happens less and less in the big tours these days, and it forgets what a great climber Wiggins now is in any event.

What we've seen from Wiggins today, smashing cancellara in the TT, has taken it to a new level. The only time AC beat FC in a TT was by a second, there was a big hill in the middle of the course, and it was in the different era or the sport (ah hem). AC is almost certainly going to lose big time to Wiggins and will struggle to get it back.

Do you know what Il Giro is?

 

[jens_attacks]

alberto has to up his game big time to beat wiggo and especially froomy next year.
i think he already did that and we'll see it in la vuelta

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

No - Alberto would've lost 2 minutes in today's TT and 3, 3.5 minutes in the last TT. No way he could've gained 5 minutes in the mountains.

Alberto = Nibali as TT?

If you say so.

 

[trompe le monde]

Depends if there is a TTT. If so, then Sky's dominance can carry on for another year.