Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Valverde to surprise everyone.

Now that would be a huge surprise.

Why?

The guy has won 8 of his 9 latest stage races and except for the Dauphiné and the Ruta del Sol stage last year has won every mountain stage he has raced in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

It's as if people are blinded by that number, though. 38.

Because he's completed loads of 3 week races, been there or thereabouts loads. But won only 1, and that's because it was a weak field.

I realise that but what's baffling me is that his recent extreme elevation in GC ability in the smaller races doesn't seem to rise the expectations of him GT-wise.

Because, as Blanco says, he is always thereabouts also in the GTs. And if his level has risen in the other stage races, I really don't think it would be a huge surprise if he were to win a GT that suits him fine.

 

[del1962]

The favourites

***** The mythical Landa, Quintana, Roglic
**** Porte, Froome, Nibali
*** Uran, Martin, Bardet, Yates, Fuglsang, Thomas
** Bernal, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Mollema, Dumoulin
* Kittel, Valverde et al

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Valverde to surprise everyone.

Now that would be a huge surprise.

Why?

The guy has won 8 of his 9 latest stage races and except for the Dauphiné and the Ruta del Sol stage last year has won every mountain stage he has raced in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

It's as if people are blinded by that number, though. 38.

Because he's completed loads of 3 week races, been there or thereabouts loads. But won only 1, and that's because it was a weak field.

I realise that but what's baffling me is that his recent extreme elevation in GC ability in the smaller races doesn't seem to rise the expectations of him GT-wise.

Because, as Blanco says, he is always thereabouts also in the GTs. And if his level has risen in the other stage races, I really don't think it would be a huge surprise if he were to win a GT that suits him fine.

Isn't it because week long stage races very rarely have many high mountain stages with multiple climbs in them? Whereas Grand Tours do. And that is where Valverde has traditionally fallen slightly short.

I think he'll be going all in for the Vuelta and Worlds this year and will happily play a supporting role at the Tour.

 

[Bolder]

I voted for "other." Hope springs eternal that an underdog or little-known can pull off a TdF win.

Rationally, Froome or Thomas, then maybe one of the Movistars. I'm a huge Bardet fan but think TTs will be very important so not expecting better than 3d.

 

[telencefalus]

if quintana stay in the 3 minutes range after the first 9 stages he will win dominating the climbs

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Brain: Valverde (why isn't he an option?)
Heart: Too busy being a non-sentient organ to provide its opinion.

Added Valverde.

He was further down for the bookies to be a winner. But here we are fans and anything is possible.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Brain: Valverde (why isn't he an option?)
Heart: Too busy being a non-sentient organ to provide its opinion.

Added Valverde.

He was further down for the bookies to be a winner. But here we are fans and anything is possible.

You might as well add Jungels, Pauwels, Gaudu, Majka, Barguil, Ion Izaguirre and Calmejane then

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Brain: Valverde (why isn't he an option?)
Heart: Too busy being a non-sentient organ to provide its opinion.

Added Valverde.

He was further down for the bookies to be a winner. But here we are fans and anything is possible.

You might as well add Jungels, Pauwels, Gaudu, Majka, Barguil, Ion Izaguirre and Calmejane then

Sorry, IMHO their chances are too low!

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

Brain: Valverde (why isn't he an option?)
Heart: Too busy being a non-sentient organ to provide its opinion.

Added Valverde.

He was further down for the bookies to be a winner. But here we are fans and anything is possible.

You might as well add Jungels, Pauwels, Gaudu, Majka, Barguil, Ion Izaguirre and Calmejane then

Sorry, IMHO their chances are too low!

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him, Gaudu hasn't even ridden a GT before, Barguil hasn't shown any form yet and goes for stage wins anyway, Izagirre is a domestique and Calmejane hasn't nearly shown enough potential in the high mountains and prefers to go for stage wins too.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

***** - The Dark Knight
*** - Porte, Landa, Nibali, Quintana
** - Roglic, GT, Bernal, Bardet, Uran, Yates
* - Zakarin, Dumo, Kruijswijk, Majka, Fuglsang, Martin

 

[ice&fire]

Head doesn't know
Heart doesn't care

 

[skippo12]

Considering the amount of downhill finishes...I don`t see a way Porte can win this. Even if he has a lead coming out of the TTT he has to worry about the cobbles and downhills. Every second he gains uphill he is likely to lose downhill.
I expect him to be the best climber this year but overall that won`t be enough.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

 

[zlev11]

Roglic

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.

 

[Gigs_98]

If Froome suffers from riding the giro this is extremely wide open with loads of possible winners. As Valverde has been mentioned, I'm actually super excited to see what he can do. His stage racing shape has been far better than ever before in the last two years and if he can bring the shape from the one week races over to the gt's the sky is the limit for him. Generally can't wait to see Movistar in the mountains.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.

Oh he definitely has GT winning potential, but it ain’t gonna be this one!

 

[arvc40]

Froome.

He will show how easy it is for him to recover from Giro.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Valverde to surprise everyone.

Now that would be a huge surprise.

Why?

The guy has won 8 of his 9 latest stage races and except for the Dauphiné and the Ruta del Sol stage last year has won every mountain stage he has raced in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

It's as if people are blinded by that number, though. 38.

It's more because the Tour has always been a major headache for him. Although he has his typical top 10 in GC when he finishes this race (really outside of 2012) he's just always had issues and the altitude does get to him. It's his weakness and one that there is nothing he can do to fix. I also don't believe he's that close to a peak and don't believe he's going to be because of how much going after the Worlds means to him this year.

 

[SHAD0W93]

He is about to give everyone a headache when he comes out of no where.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

He is about to give everyone a headache when he comes out of no where.

That would be nice. Who knows. Maybe he can find a way to sneak into one of those early breaks on one of the mountain stages, esp one with a downhill finish.

 

[tobydawq]

Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

 

[Koronin]

He does have peaks, which he typically peaks for the Ardennes, then for the Tour, then for the Vuelta/Worlds. Yes 3, and this year he's trying two longer peaks by not peaking for the Tour. The difference is as his bosses have said it that it's really hard to tell the difference between Valverde at/near peak and Valverde just in race shape. Then again he also won Fleche Wallone in 2016 when he admitted he wasn't that close to peak because he was holding off his peak until the Giro. There in lies the difference, basically everyone has has a noticeable difference between race shape, off peak, and peak, where Valverde doesn't.

 

[Cookster15]

I'm not convinced Froome will fade after the Giro. If we believe the Sky PR he deliberately delayed his peak to be best in week three of the Giro but also to reduce cumulative fatigue for a decent shot at the TdF. It seems a similar path as last season when he came into the Tour with good but less than dominating form but was able to hold enough together to also win the Vuelta when it mattered.

Sky no doubt would have studied Contador's rides in 2011. Certainly this year's Giro wasn't as tough as that of 2011 but back then Contador animated the Tour for three weeks punctured by fatigue induced cracks to Luz Ardiden and on the slopes of the Galibier. At the Giro, Froome only woke up on the Zoncolan, went to sleep the next day, but then of course came good just in time to win the race on Finistre.

Of course Quintana is 2nd rung favourite. He showed in the Tour de Swiss he can do long range attacks with the help of his team and he has Valverde as the joker. Nibali will entertain he is the complete racer but has not seemed so strong recently maybe age related. Sky will be marking moves as they know Froome has the TT advantage, the strongest team, plus Egan Bernal and if we can believe the hype, Geraint Thomas on his side. If Porte can make the podium in this field he can hold his head up the stars are aligning for the Tour de France.

 

[jaylew]

Head: Porte or Nairo
Heart: anyone but the alien praying mantis