Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[Gigs_98]

Re:

In a game where the players play optimally, aggressive as you define it amounts to not being the strongest climber.

Froome made one serious attack in this years tdf. Then why was he aggressive? I only said that I don't think froome was aggressive this year. And ofc its more likely that you act aggressively when you aren't in front, just because its not likely that you will attack if you already have a good lead, or do you want to tell me that I always have to say the strongest rider is aggressive because "he maybe would attack, if he has to, but he just doesnt because he has the advantage". If thats what you want to say, Wiggins was extremely aggressive too in 2012. You know, there is a difference between not aggressive and unaggressive (at least I hope there is a difference in english, because german there is one ). A rider doesnt attack because he doesnt have to and he maybe would attack if he had to = not aggressive --> froome at this years tour. A rider who should attack doesnt because of lame tactics = unagressive --> Quintana in La Toussuire
Ofc, there are some exceptions in which the leader attacks like Contador in this years giro when he attacked astana out of revenge, but it just doesnt happen often.

 

[Ruby United]

Is Aru now a better GT rider than Nibs?
IMO they are pretty even atm, Aru has a better acceleration on the climbs whilst Nibali is more of an all rounder, better TT'er and more experienced.

 

[Rollthedice]

Froome rides by the numbers. If the numbers look aggressive he attacks.

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

In a game where the players play optimally, aggressive as you define it amounts to not being the strongest climber.

Froome made one serious attack in this years tdf. Then why was he aggressive? I only said that I don't think froome was aggressive this year. And ofc its more likely that you act aggressively when you aren't in front, just because its not likely that you will attack if you already have a good lead, or do you want to tell me that I always have to say the strongest rider is aggressive because "he maybe would attack, if he has to, but he just doesnt because he has the advantage". If thats what you want to say, Wiggins was extremely aggressive too in 2012. You know, there is a difference between not aggressive and unaggressive (at least I hope there is a difference in english, because german there is one ). A rider doesnt attack because he doesnt have to and he maybe would attack if he had to = not aggressive --> froome at this years tour. A rider who should attack doesnt because of lame tactics = unagressive --> Quintana in La Toussuire
Ofc, there are some exceptions in which the leader attacks like Contador in this years giro when he attacked astana out of revenge, but it just doesnt happen often.

Unfortunately, unaggressive/not aggressive doesn't translate like that in English but I do understand what you mean.

However, I disagree with you on your other points

a) Froome didn't not attack in this year's Tour because he didn't need to; the reason he didn't attack is because (most of the time) he wasn't able to. In the last week and a half, where nearly all the mountains were situated, he was simply weaker than Nairito. As we saw in the 2013 Tour and many other places, Froome nearly always attacks when he can.

b) Riders do attack often even when in the lead, Contador was an exception. Generally when riders can attack they do, even when in the lead. Doumolin in Vuelta 2015, Contador in every GT he's won, Froome in 2013 Tour, Nibs in 2014 Tour, Nibs in 2013 Giro etc... More often than not the leader in GC will attack if he can.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Is Aru now a better GT rider than Nibs?
IMO they are pretty even atm, Aru has a better acceleration on the climbs whilst Nibali is more of an all rounder, better TT'er and more experienced.

I would say pretty even right now. I think Aru will prove to be the slightly better climber, while Nibs obviously is the better allrounder.

 

[hrotha]

Re:

Froome rides by the numbers. If the numbers look aggressive he attacks.

Exactly this. Sadly, this still makes him more aggressive than many of his competitors.

 

[MatParker1711]

Re: Re:

I don't think that next year's Tour suits Quintana more. It is not very good for someone that just hits a peak for 3-4 days.
This year's Tour was his chance and he completely blew it. Of course I might be wrong, but 2015 route was tailor-made for him

LOL, how did he blow it? His team did a terrible job in the second stage, and he still came very close to winning at the end. If Sky had made a similar error, Quintana would have won instead; thus, the difference was that Sky did what they had to do while Movistar didn't.

About next year's Tour, you might be right. There isn't a stage like Alp d'Huez, which seems to be Nairo's specialty, but there are enough mountains where I think Quintana could gain time. This year Quintana knew he had Alpe d'Huez where he could make up a lot of time, so he didn't attack earlier and tried to save himself. Next year we will see him attacking a lot earlier. Also, I'm probably in the minority, but I think those two time trials will play into his hands. He won't beat Froome in the flat TT, but he could have a net gain in both.

Froome put a minute into Quintana in the last Tour MTT.

 

[SeriousSam]

MTT != hilly TT

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Is Aru now a better GT rider than Nibs?
IMO they are pretty even atm, Aru has a better acceleration on the climbs whilst Nibali is more of an all rounder, better TT'er and more experienced.

No. Maybe he climbs slightly better lately. Nevertheless he has a bright future.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

In a game where the players play optimally, aggressive as you define it amounts to not being the strongest climber.

Froome made one serious attack in this years tdf. Then why was he aggressive? I only said that I don't think froome was aggressive this year. And ofc its more likely that you act aggressively when you aren't in front, just because its not likely that you will attack if you already have a good lead, or do you want to tell me that I always have to say the strongest rider is aggressive because "he maybe would attack, if he has to, but he just doesnt because he has the advantage". If thats what you want to say, Wiggins was extremely aggressive too in 2012. You know, there is a difference between not aggressive and unaggressive (at least I hope there is a difference in english, because german there is one ). A rider doesnt attack because he doesnt have to and he maybe would attack if he had to = not aggressive --> froome at this years tour. A rider who should attack doesnt because of lame tactics = unagressive --> Quintana in La Toussuire
Ofc, there are some exceptions in which the leader attacks like Contador in this years giro when he attacked astana out of revenge, but it just doesnt happen often.

Unfortunately, unaggressive/not aggressive doesn't translate like that in English but I do understand what you mean.

However, I disagree with you on your other points

a) Froome didn't not attack in this year's Tour because he didn't need to; the reason he didn't attack is because (most of the time) he wasn't able to. In the last week and a half, where nearly all the mountains were situated, he was simply weaker than Nairito. As we saw in the 2013 Tour and many other places, Froome nearly always attacks when he can.

b) Riders do attack often even when in the lead, Contador was an exception. Generally when riders can attack they do, even when in the lead. Doumolin in Vuelta 2015, Contador in every GT he's won, Froome in 2013 Tour, Nibs in 2014 Tour, Nibs in 2013 Giro etc... More often than not the leader in GC will attack if he can.

I know it didn't come to anything but on the cobbled stage in this year's Tour, Froome and Thomas were at the front of the peloton coming out of the last cobbled section. This then became a small group of about 10 riders also including Nibali and Valverde, and the group had a gap over Contador and Quintana and others. Thomas rode on the front driving the group on for about a kilometre. When he was done, Froome, who at this point was already in yellow and had 30ish seconds on Contador, then personally tried to drive the group on. He didn't immediately complain for someone else to come to the front, he didn't sit up, he took up the responsibility of creating a bigger gap to the peloton, even with most of 10km to go. Now, as I say, Sagan pulling for Contador doomed the leading group and it came to nothing, but for me that's not the behaviour of someone who has no attacking spirit, can only have one good day in the mountains, or does the minimum to win.

 

[MatParker1711]

Re: Re:

In a game where the players play optimally, aggressive as you define it amounts to not being the strongest climber.

Froome made one serious attack in this years tdf. Then why was he aggressive? I only said that I don't think froome was aggressive this year. And ofc its more likely that you act aggressively when you aren't in front, just because its not likely that you will attack if you already have a good lead, or do you want to tell me that I always have to say the strongest rider is aggressive because "he maybe would attack, if he has to, but he just doesnt because he has the advantage". If thats what you want to say, Wiggins was extremely aggressive too in 2012. You know, there is a difference between not aggressive and unaggressive (at least I hope there is a difference in english, because german there is one ). A rider doesnt attack because he doesnt have to and he maybe would attack if he had to = not aggressive --> froome at this years tour. A rider who should attack doesnt because of lame tactics = unagressive --> Quintana in La Toussuire
Ofc, there are some exceptions in which the leader attacks like Contador in this years giro when he attacked astana out of revenge, but it just doesnt happen often.

Unfortunately, unaggressive/not aggressive doesn't translate like that in English but I do understand what you mean.

However, I disagree with you on your other points

a) Froome didn't not attack in this year's Tour because he didn't need to; the reason he didn't attack is because (most of the time) he wasn't able to. In the last week and a half, where nearly all the mountains were situated, he was simply weaker than Nairito. As we saw in the 2013 Tour and many other places, Froome nearly always attacks when he can.

b) Riders do attack often even when in the lead, Contador was an exception. Generally when riders can attack they do, even when in the lead. Doumolin in Vuelta 2015, Contador in every GT he's won, Froome in 2013 Tour, Nibs in 2014 Tour, Nibs in 2013 Giro etc... More often than not the leader in GC will attack if he can.

I know it didn't come to anything but on the cobbled stage in this year's Tour, Froome and Thomas were at the front of the peloton coming out of the last cobbled section. This then became a small group of about 10 riders also including Nibali and Valverde, and the group had a gap over Contador and Quintana and others. Thomas rode on the front driving the group on for about a kilometre. When he was done, Froome, who at this point was already in yellow and had 30ish seconds on Contador, then personally tried to drive the group on. He didn't immediately complain for someone else to come to the front, he didn't sit up, he took up the responsibility of creating a bigger gap to the peloton, even with most of 10km to go. Now, as I say, Sagan pulling for Contador doomed the leading group and it came to nothing, but for me that's not the behaviour of someone who has no attacking spirit, can only have one good day in the mountains, or does the minimum to win.

2013 Tour Alpe d Huez despite running on fumes he still dropped Contador and on Mont Semnoz he still went for the win when he could of stopped for a coffee and still won.

 

[HelloDolly]

There is no doubt Froome attacks but there is a predictability about his attacks. SKY have them set out in advance
Quintana attacks but usually late in the race and with a set very high pace rather than an acceleration
This is why Contador is the more exciting ...no one knows when he will attack , including himself at times

What I admire about Froome isn't his attacks. Its the way he hangs in there and comesback when he looks dead in the water. Unfortunately for him that usually happens when he is not in top form
What I admire about Quintana beside how great and natural a climber he is...is he is one tough cookie. A small little guy who manages pressure, cobbles (& Valverde ) with aplomb

 

[Publicus]

I can't really call it yet, but outside of the questions regarding Contador's form, I'm really curious as to when Froome's wife is due to give birth to his first child. That will undoubtedly impact his preparations--no matter what he or anyone else says--as any first time parent will tell you.

EDIT: Apparently by the end of this year. His winter is going to be off.... Maybe he has time to recover some form by July, but I think he will be missing something. I'm picking Contador.

 

[Electress]

Re: Re:

alberto contador velasco
easily.

Alberto Contador Velasco

This and this. The Great One returns.

Oh Yes.

Hey guys I got an idea, let's look at the betting odds to determine who's got the most chance of winning

I am actually considering throwing some change on a Contador win at a bookmaker but I've never done any betting

Me too! I don't bet, as a rule but I might well this time around.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Sky's Tour Team will be the same as this year but, Porte & Konig OUT and Landa & Kwiatkowski IN.

Leaving the following for the Giro:

Landa Intxausti Konig Henao Nieve Boswell Kiryienka Viviani Knees

Very impressive for a 'B Squad'

 

[Movitrain]

Sky's Tour Team will be the same as this year but, Porte & Konig OUT and Landa & Kwiatkowski IN.

Leaving the following for the Giro:

Landa Intxausti Konig Henao Nieve Boswell Kiryienka Viviani Knees

Very impressive for a 'B Squad'

How many more "guesses" about possible GT lineups for Team Sky will there be?

 

[TMP402]

Sky's Tour Team will be the same as this year but, Porte & Konig OUT and Landa & Kwiatkowski IN.

Leaving the following for the Giro:

Landa Intxausti Konig Henao Nieve Boswell Kiryienka Viviani Knees

Very impressive for a 'B Squad'

How many more "guesses" about possible GT lineups for Team Sky will there be?

Enough with the guessing. Although the premature speculation started in the first post so...

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Mick Rogers will win a mountain stage.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Froome rides by the numbers. If the numbers look aggressive he attacks.

yours and many other haters' favorite delusion

 

[Velolover2]

Sky's Tour Team will be the same as this year but, Porte & Konig OUT and Landa & Kwiatkowski IN.

Leaving the following for the Giro:

Landa Intxausti Konig Henao Nieve Boswell Kiryienka Viviani Knees

Very impressive for a 'B Squad'

I'm almost 100% that Landa will not ride the Tour. Thomas is a strong enough to be the sole lieutenant for Froome. And there will be no A or B sqauds. Brailsford stated that they both will get a strong team behind them.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/brailsford-froome-for-the-2016-tour-de-france-and-landa-for-the-giro-ditalia/

Giro: Landa, Intxausti, Nieve, Henao, Kennaugh, Kiryienka, Lopez, Puccio, Viviani.
Tour: Froome, Thomas, Poels, König, Kwiatkowski, Roche, Boswell, Rowe, Stannard

Boswell and Kennaugh might replace each other because of their sponsors want as many Brits as possible in the Tour. But otherwise, this should be the teams.

 

[Velolover2]

With Froome, Quintana, Aru, Contador, Valverde, Pinot, Porte, Thomas, Bardet, Rolland, Mollema, Frank and the Yates brothers comfirmed for the Tour, it's looking like the Giro will become a Nibali vs. Landa-fest.

Getting 3rd in the Giro should be easier than getting 9th in the Tour. Rui Costa, Joaquim Rodríguez, Tejay Van Garderen and Dan Martin have a chance to make the Giro semi-decent. The route is probably too easy for JRod and doesn't suit Dan Martin, but RC and TVG have no excuse other than never having ridden it before which is a non-excuse. Esteban Chaves should ride it too.

 

[Pricey_sky]

With the route that has been announced it will either be Froome or Contador. For all Quintana is a great climber he needs to learn that the Tour is 21 days long and you can take time before the final couple of MTF's. He will also lose time to the other 2 in that long hilly iTT. If Contador can match Froome in the first MTF he will be favourite in my opinion, Froome will certainly target Arcalis and Ventoux.

 

[bassano]

Re:

Froome most agresive rider? He demolished everyone in Tour? What will be next? Flying pink elefant?

With Froome, Quintana, Aru, Contador, Valverde, Pinot, Porte, Thomas, Bardet, Rolland, Mollema, Frank and the Yates brothers comfirmed for the Tour, it's looking like the Giro will become a Nibali vs. Landa-fest.

Getting 3rd in the Giro should be easier than getting 9th in the Tour. Rui Costa, Joaquim Rodríguez, Tejay Van Garderen and Dan Martin have a chance to make the Giro semi-decent. The route is probably too easy for JRod and doesn't suit Dan Martin, but RC and TVG have no excuse other than never having ridden it before which is a non-excuse. Esteban Chaves should ride it too.

None of this riders have much chance to finish 3rd in Giro and neither compete for podium in Tour several riders like that will be even in Giro like Majka, Uran, maybe Purito

 

[Billie]

holy fuckin cow not another thread where these fanboys start guessing the team sky line up

 

[rick james]

Re:

holy **** cow not another thread where these fanboys start guessing the team sky line up

Could be worse, we could have contador fans taking about Froome suit choice