Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

You have no idea.

 

[markene2]

Berto to smash the rest. Aru to take 3rd place

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

You have no idea.

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

And I'd say that he has to be glued to his wheel on the first MTF. In the last editions, that's where Froome has won the Tour. We already knew that he was going to win in 2013 and 2015 after the first MTF. I don't buy all that "tired in the last week" bullsh*t. He was going to win no matter what. With a huge gap down to the closest rivals, he only had to defend himself.

Fact is, if Contador and Quintana only relies on the third week, they will lose the Tour.

 

[WheelofGear]

And even if Quintana and Contador attack earlier on, Sky will always have a strong team to bring them back. Sky have 10 riders who can top 10 in a GT to choose from.

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

 

[gunara]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

Problem is not his climbing it's the several minutes he'll lose when the stopwatches come out and whether or not Froome will motor up Arcalis if both those things happen, he's giving away about four to five minutes, not an advantage you wanna give Chris Froome.

that just means Quintana has to look to gain maximum time on any mountain stage. That means attacking from far out, which is a good thing for us fans. The less mountain sprinting in the last 2KM the better IMO

'A more conservative Nairo' promise us this

 

[MatParker1711]

Re:

And even if Quintana and Contador attack earlier on, Sky will always have a strong team to bring them back. Sky have 10 riders who can top 10 in a GT to choose from.

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

We saw that in 2012 with Mick Rogers and Richie Porte chasing down Nibali and Evans. If Contador and Quintana are forced into something similar Konig, Poels, Roche, Landa and G will just slightly increase the tempo and slowly, slowly catchy monkey. Sky do not want Stage 9 of the 2013 tour to happen again and have surrounded Froome with Super Doms. Isolating him is going to be very difficult and if going into the third week he has a lead like this year, then it's over.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

And even if Quintana and Contador attack earlier on, Sky will always have a strong team to bring them back. Sky have 10 riders who can top 10 in a GT to choose from.

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

We saw that in 2012 with Mick Rogers and Richie Porte chasing down Nibali and Evans. If Contador and Quintana are forced into something similar Konig, Poels, Roche, Landa and G will just slightly increase the tempo and slowly, slowly catchy monkey. Sky do not want Stage 9 of the 2013 tour to happen again and have surrounded Froome with Super Doms. Isolating him is going to be very difficult and if going into the third week he has a lead like this year, then it's over.

Yep. The first couple of weeks are more crucial than the third.

I have an idea that Porte (who is definitely going to fade later on) might be able to destroy Froome's rhythm in the first couple of MTF.

Being able to stay with him on the first MTF resulting in Froome slowing down resulting in Contador/Quintana coming back resulting in Contador attacking.

Or Porte attacking earlier than Froome leading Froome to chase him down and Contador to stay on his wheel.

If Porte is in top form, he could be a danger man which is good for the race. I can't see other riders being able to respond to Froome's acceleration in the early parts of the race.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

Interesting, do you have any numbers to back up your statements?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

Say what

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

Interesting, do you have any numbers to back up your statements?

Compare Froome's results in the Tour 2013 to Contador's in the Vuelta 2014.

Froome have a lot higher w/kg. It's not even an question.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Compare Froome's results in the Tour 2013 to Contador's in the Vuelta 2014.

Froome have a lot higher w/kg. It's not even an question.

Interesting, do you have any numbers to back up your statements?

I do, for the record. But I will let you dig them up first.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

Say what

Paulinho, Hernandez, Trofimov. The elite of the climbers. And Kreuziger can't climb these days.

Compare that to Sky. Both Landa, Intxausti, Henao, Thomas, König, Poels, Nieve can outclimb Contador's leutnant.

And I would not be surprised if Kiryienka, Kwiatkowski, even Kennaugh and Boswell would be able to do too.

 

[Breh]

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Paulinho, Hernandez, Trofimov. The elite of the climbers. And Kreuziger can't climb these days.

Compare that to Sky. Both Landa, Intxausti, Henao, Thomas, König, Poels, Nieve can outclimb Contador's leutnant.

And I would not be surprised if Kiryienka, Kwiatkowski, even Kennaugh and Boswell would be able to do too.

What??

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

You're right. Gut feeling and intuition > methods that works such as trains, thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning.

Do you believe in unicorns too?

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Paulinho, Hernandez, Trofimov. The elite of the climbers. And Kreuziger can't climb these days.

Compare that to Sky. Both Landa, Intxausti, Henao, Thomas, König, Poels, Nieve can outclimb Contador's leutnant.

And I would not be surprised if Kiryienka, Kwiatkowski, even Kennaugh and Boswell would be able to do too.

What??

What what? Hernandez is not even better than Rowe.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Paulinho, Hernandez, Trofimov. The elite of the climbers. And Kreuziger can't climb these days.

Compare that to Sky. Both Landa, Intxausti, Henao, Thomas, König, Poels, Nieve can outclimb Contador's leutnant.

And I would not be surprised if Kiryienka, Kwiatkowski, even Kennaugh and Boswell would be able to do too.

What??

What what? Hernandez is not even better than Rowe.

! Do some research before making ridonkulous statements, please.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

Interesting, do you have any numbers to back up your statements?

Compare Froome's results in the Tour 2013 to Contador's in the Vuelta 2014.

Froome have a lot higher w/kg. It's not even an question.

Over 6.4 W/kg for almost 18 minutes on La Farrapona in a proper mountain stage that was the 3rd consecutive mountain stage at the end of the 2nd week, that's pretty good. Ancares was something like 5.84 W/kg for almost 39 minutes on stage 20, not his most impressive performace, I'll give you that, but probably still better than anything that Froome has ever shown in the 3rd week of a GT
You also have to consider that he was just following Froome's wheel and outsprinted him on the final km and we don't know if Froome and Contador where really at their best durning the Vuelta after crashing out of the Tour, so it's hard to compare those performances.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ammattipyoraily calculated 6.44 W/kg for 18 minutes for Farrapona, and 6.1 W/kg for 39 minutes for Ancares.

Edit: Excusez-moi, it was Mr Vayer who came up with the Ancares number.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Ammattipyoraily calculated 6.44 W/kg for 18 minutes for Farrapona, and 6.1 W/kg for 39 minutes for Ancares.

Ok, Ammattipyoraily is a little bit more reliable than me.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Ammattipyoraily calculated 6.44 W/kg for 18 minutes for Farrapona, and 6.1 W/kg for 39 minutes for Ancares.

Ok, Ammattipyoraily is a little bit more reliable than me.

See my edit, it was Antoine Vayer who came up with 6.1 W/kg.
Jens has him at 38'50" for 12km at 9.2% which would be 1704 m/h and 5.9 W/kg.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

You're right. Gut feeling and intuition > methods that works such as trains, thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning.

Do you believe in unicorns too?

At the end of the day, it comes down to who is the stronger rider. Sky aren't able to destroy everything (think Ax-3 and Pierre Martin) if Froome wasnt the strongest since it's equal to everyone at slopes like that. Doesnt matter if its Porte or Majka pulling, its just a race of nutrition at that point and Froome showing to clearly be the best, at least at the first part of the race.

I guess you can use the good mountain doms to specifically pinpoint where you wanna be aggressive and where you wanna be defensive, but if Froome wasnt as strong as he was, it wouldnt really matter that much. If there arent much wind, the drafting effect on +8% arent really super effective

 

[dacooley]

all the power output stuff is so speculative and dependent on who makes a calculation that it becomes very difficult to consider that as reliable argument.

 

[hrotha]

Re:

all the power output stuff is so speculative and dependent on who makes a calculation that it becomes very difficult to consider that as reliable argument.

Actually, when done properly (and most of the stuff you'll see quoted has been done properly, because everyone knows who gets it right by now), the calculations tend to be bang on when compared to actual data from the power meters themselves. Ask Marco Pinotti.

 

[Breh]

Re: Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

You're right. Gut feeling and intuition > methods that works such as trains, thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning.

Do you believe in unicorns too?

Did I say I do not believe in "thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning"?

In the end it boils down to the strength of your leader in the train. If Froome can't drop Contador, your superclimbing train is pointless.