Who would win, Cancellara or Cavendish

[M Sport]

Yeah, in the Commonwealth Games RR, where he rode his backside off.

And got dropped by Davis's multiple accelerations, he was a broken man. A nice comparison though because it’s one of the only times outside of a sprint I’ve seen him on a man to man fight.

If you put the winner on a win bonus of $5,000 per each minute they won by I think Cancellara could break him by at least half an hour.

 

[Altitude]

I thought this was "who would win in a fight"

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Cancellara can hold that pace for much, much, much, much longer than cav. Sure cav could catch back up, but once he did he'd get dropped from the high pace almost immediately since he wouldnt be able to recover sitting second wheel.

Sure he'll be able to recover. Even though sitting on second wheel isn't nearly as energy conserving as being in a pack, it does make a significant difference. If Fabien is out in the wind all race (as Cav has no reason to force the pace), he is most likely to get extremely tired while Cav sits on his wheel and outsprints him.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Did you watch Paris-Roubaix this year? He just, sorts of rides off in to the distance with 50K to go Same would happen on a pan flat course with Cav, assuming both had been sharing the wind at race speed up until then.

But there is no reason for Cav to be sharing the pulls, he knows he won't be able to drop Cancellara and wouldn't even try. In this race, Cav has the upper hand tacticly as his sprinting ability would force Fabien to be extremely agressive.

 

[pedaling squares]

Sure he'll be able to recover. Even though sitting on second wheel isn't nearly as energy conserving as being in a pack, it does make a significant difference. If Fabien is out in the wind all race (as Cav has no reason to force the pace), he is most likely to get extremely tired while Cav sits on his wheel and outsprints him.

I think you are seriously underestimating the effect that reacting to repeat attacks would have on Cavendish.

 

[flatclimb]

Cancellara would rip Cavs legs off. Honestly how is this a thread?

 

[mulletCobra]

Isn't this as simple as who can sustain a higher wattage rate over the entire distance?From my understanding Cavendish can put out a high wattage but only for a short while. It happens to be the aerodynamics of his body along with his high burst of speed that win him races(along with an excellent team.) He conserves as much energy as possible until it's game time. Then he does his best to ride away.

Fabian can put out high watts as well. He can sustain them for an ungodly amount of time too. Fabian wins this race with ease. I'm not even sure Cavendish would be able to withstand more than two attacks.. He simply doesn't have the stamina. Plus, I can't recall Cavendish ever attacking anything. He is known to sit up when he's bested. I don't understand how this is even a discussion.

 

[scribe]

If Cav could manage to extend his final 300m convulsive/spasmatic sprint into another couple hundred k's..... he could beat Cancellara. Until then, this isn't even close.

 

[ergmonkey]

How about we expand this thread into a whole slew of Cavendish vs. Cancellara questions just to really rub it in?

1) Who would win a 1km prologue (like that one in the Giro a few years ago)? Cancellara.

2) Who would win anything longer than that 1km prologue? Cancellara.

3) Who would win a popularity contest among riders? Cancellara.

4) Who would win a popularity contest among Flemish fans. Oh, wait, Cancellara already won that.

5) Who would win a massive new contract and expensive buy-out of his old contract to ride where he wants? Wait, Cancellara already won that one, too.

6) Whom would any reasonable woman prefer? Cancellara.

7) Who can confidently predict when he's going to win a monument or world championship? Cancellara.

8) Who is so bad at handling the constant pressure of public scrutiny that he cries like a baby when he (finally) delivers a result? Okay, Cav wins one.

 

[Ferminal]

Cancellara would win 100% of the time, just like Cav would win 100% of the time if it were over 1000m.

The number of cyclists who could beat Cav in that simulation would be over one hundred.

 

[Marcus135]

Fabian would win every time by a huge amount, i wouldn't be surprised if he won by more than 30 mins...

 

[derailleur]

The fairer fight would be 10k. Now there we could see if Canc could make the drop.

I have no doubt he could. Fabs can just take off from the line at top speed. After 1-2 km Cav would be hanging on for dear life, and would be screwed if he fell back even a few inches. One good pop by Cancellara and Cavendish would be battling wind instead of sucking wheel. If he tried to lose his guts he might sprint up once. But the second time he'd just be watching Spartacus disappear around the next bend. Once you know you're bested by a guy with demonstrably as much competitive mania as you have, yours doesn't help as much. If instead Fabo let Cavo hang on until km 8 or so and then popped him, Cav's sprint to stay on would deplete him. He'd never recover enough to see daylight at the finish.

I think we need to shorten this to 3 km at most. Then it gets interesting.

 

[derailleur]

Of course after 200k, Cav would feel it, but won't Fabien be feeling it as well?

He would if he let Cav suck his wheel for 200k.

So what he'd do is drop him early, TT off until he had a several-minute lead, then rest until he had a short lead (no draft and no rest for Cav), then TT off, and so on. Turn it into a 200-km ITT where Cav is working full-bore the whole way and Spartacus is stopping off for espressos. By the end they'd have felt the same distance and wind, but Cav would be barfing up a lung and Fabs wouldn't let him close enough to even think of sprinting to the line.

Or, to simplify the math, Fabs could just get 200 m ahead and hold that the rest of the way. His worst fear would be nodding off.

 

[ultimobici]

4) Who would win a popularity contest among Flemish fans. Oh, wait, Cancellara already won that.

How'd you figure that one?

 

[Sophistic]

Cancellara could win in two ways easily: 1)hammer from the start, drafting will not neutralise the difference in TT strength. 2)lots of attacks with real slow recovery phases inbetween.

 

[SpaceRonin]

Yeah but what would chuck Norris do..

 

[SpaceRonin]

Yeah but what would chuck norris do?

 

[For The World]

Yeah but what would chuck norris do?

A roundhouse kick to Cavs face while popping a mono and screaming out in German "death to manky man!".

 

[El Pistolero]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcNBkQXPFog

That's what would happen to Cav

 

[Angliru]

you don't race bikes do you?

...and you do?

 

[Angliru]

Cancellara.

There's no incentive for either of them to work on the front, so the initial part of the race would be Cancellara attacking constantly, interspersed with periods of them going extremely slowly. Eventually, I'd expect Cav to crack and Cancellara will ride off into the distance.

If it were 200m's Cavendish would do as sprinters do and let Cancellara attack, jump on his wheel each time and eventually come around for the win.
There is not enough road for Cancellara to wear Cavendish down to be able to get away from him.

200 km's Cavendish has absolutely no chance whatsoever.

 

[Winterfold]

Some people are very certain that Canc just rides away from Cavendish. Please explain very carefully and clearly how he does this, and the speed at which Canc breaks him.

Before you try and work this out, think about who is the best person in the peloton at holding wheels at 55-60kmh, and remember Cav will get about 25% power advantage from drafting a big rouleur.

You might also want to bear in mind a few other facts about Cav's track background; sub 4'20" 4km pursuiter. Able to maintain 50kmh+ average in Scratch races.

I'm not saying Canc doesn't drop him, maybe, but I dont think it will be easy one-on-one.

This is a flat 200km? A hill might help. Or if Cav stops for a *** and coffee like Boonen did in P-R.

 

[Bertie]

I dont see Cancellara getting away from Cavendish. People dont give Cavendish enough credit for his shorter TT skills, and overall strength. It took two "top" aussies to crack him (only just) working off one another in the last ten miles of the Commonwealth Games.

 

[El Pistolero]

Some people are very certain that Canc just rides away from Cavendish. Please explain very carefully and clearly how he does this, and the speed at which Canc breaks him.

Before you try and work this out, think about who is the best person in the peloton at holding wheels at 55-60kmh, and remember Cav will get about 25% power advantage from drafting a big rouleur.

You might also want to bear in mind a few other facts about Cav's track background; sub 4'20" 4km pursuiter. Able to maintain 50kmh+ average in Scratch races.

I'm not saying Canc doesn't drop him, maybe, but I dont think it will be easy one-on-one.

This is a flat 200km? A hill might help. Or if Cav stops for a *** and coffee like Boonen did in P-R.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcNBkQXPFog

That's how he would do it.

 

[Bertie]

1) Element of surprise followed by two riders bickering
2) A hill attack.

Neither of which will be possible in a windless, flat 200KM.

Cancellara is the best bike rider in the world, no question...but if he did not break clear of Cav in the early stages, he'd have missed his chance. Cav averaged almost 700W in the last 5k of MSR, nobody can drop that solo.