Who would win, Cancellara or Cavendish

[The Hitch]

Forget Renshaw Goss Cipolini Kittel Farrar Bolt and all the other sprinters.

Cancellara showed in Worlds and MSR he is going to be the sprinter to take on Cav.

 

[Panda Claws]

And sometimes, on a flat, even with under 1 k to go, entire team trains cant hold on to Cancellara. So how is Cav on his own going to do it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJNLMYpr2TM&p=373D13547C979A89&playnext=1&index=1

That video is amazing. It is wonderful to see all those riders stare at Cancellara in awe. It is like Paris-Tours this year when a few riders attacked the peleton and where followed by Gilbert. They did not notice that Gilbert was following them and after a few hundred m's they looked around and literally almost fell of their bikes.

 

[taiwan]

There's absolutely no way Brajkovic can handle this (the guy's got a barbed wire biceps tattoo, for God's sake):

That is an inspired shoop, really.

I'm sure this thread went up in the same week as the navy seals one. That was truly a renaissance for 5h1t, funny threads.

 

[Maxiton]

And sometimes, on a flat, even with under 1 k to go, entire team trains cant hold on to Cancellara. So how is Cav on his own going to do it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJNLMYpr2TM&p=373D13547C979A89&playnext=1&index=1

Yeah, good point. That has to be one of my all time favorite stage finishes. For a long time, in fact, I used that as my desktop image. (Resurrected for this post. )

This finish, though, is in my opinion a great illustration of exactly what happens when you pit the steady, high wattage output of a Cancellara against the sudden, super high, violent, but short burst output of a sprinter (or in this case sprinters ). Once Cancellara had a good jump on them it was all over. Too bad that doesn't happen more often, though I can see why it doesn't.

 

[greenedge]

I'm sure Cancellara will be utterly dominant next year.

I also think Wiggins and Gesink deserve to be included in the ring against Rasmussen and Brajkovic.

 

[McLovin]

If I would be a billionaire, I would pay each of them 1 million to see this and probably other events like this one. Maybe a downhill TT contest between Fabian and Savoldelli, or a five days stage race with Evans, Contador, Wiggins, Menchov, one of the Shlecks, Basso, Cancellara, and Cunego, just them, without any teammates.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Ok, I can‘t help myself and will restart this debate. Obviously the best tactic for Cav would be to just stay in Cancellara‘s wheel and try his best to never ride past him. If Cancellara accelerates hard, Cav does probably 200-300 watts less in the slipstream and this is Cav‘s best discipline so he possibly wouldn‘t even be in Zone 7. If Cancellara goes for a sustained effort, maybe after a fast start, Cav was also a good prologue rider, meaning he shouldn’t immediately be done so Cancellara would have to do a really long effort where it‘s almost the same as Cancellara working for Cav assuming the road is really flat. Cav in the draft would surely have to make a lower effort relative to his threshold than Cancellara in the wind, otherwise I don‘t know how he became a pro cyclist. Then Cancellara would have to hope that Cav wears out constantly doing easier efforts than Cance for 200 k, but then Cav could never have won some of the tougher races he did. You have to remember that this isn‘t even a 200k cornerous farm road or a 200 k cobble race but a motorway and there are also no climbs. Just no chance.

 

[laarsland]

Where is "Vino"-option?

 

[Red Rick]

Thread actually blows my mind. Like Cavendish couldn't hold the wheel of a bigger rider on a flat road. Like actual wat.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I guess the perception of Cavendish's durability/perseverance/adaptability changed from 2010.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Cancellara could weave aggressively back and forth on the road for the entire duration, like use the entire width, making it more like an 5 or 600k race and ensuring Cavendish doesn't get a draft, I think that's the best strat.

 

[Red Rick]

I guess the perception of Cavendish's durability/perseverance/adaptability changed from 2010.

Did it? Cavendish is still mostly seen as a pure sprinter who occasionally showed some decent racing chops at races like the nationals, so not a complete Guardini-on-every-speed-bump kind of guy.

To me the it mostly signals a general lack of understanding of the physiology, underestimating the aerobic ability of sprinters especially on pure flats, and the magnitude of drafting.

Holding the wheel of Cancellara riding at threshold is simply gonna be a lower watts output than Cavendish needs to do to finish in the time limit on an MTT.

 

[pmcg76]

Did it? Cavendish is still mostly seen as a pure sprinter who occasionally showed some decent racing chops at races like the nationals, so not a complete Guardini-on-every-speed-bump kind of guy.

To me the it mostly signals a general lack of understanding of the physiology, underestimating the aerobic ability of sprinters especially on pure flats, and the magnitude of drafting.

Red Rick, have you ever raced yourself?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I‘m wondering who the least durable sprinter would be and if they should race Remco or someone else in a modern sequel. Of course that wouldn’t be a fair comparison to a three time Madison World champion and MSR winner, but according to my view, it would be more interesting. David Dekker is currently unable to race by the way.

 

[RedheadDane]

Red Rick, have you ever raced yourself?

Racing yourself is the hardest thing ever!

 

[Netserk]

Ok, I can‘t help myself and will restart this debate. Obviously the best tactic for Cav would be to just stay in Cancellara‘s wheel and try his best to never ride past him. If Cancellara accelerates hard, Cav does probably 200-300 watts less in the slipstream and this is Cav‘s best discipline so he possibly wouldn‘t even be in Zone 7. If Cancellara goes for a sustained effort, maybe after a fast start, Cav was also a good prologue rider, meaning he shouldn’t immediately be done so Cancellara would have to do a really long effort where it‘s almost the same as Cancellara working for Cav assuming the road is really flat. Cav in the draft would surely have to make a lower effort relative to his threshold than Cancellara in the wind, otherwise I don‘t know how he became a pro cyclist. Then Cancellara would have to hope that Cav wears out constantly doing easier efforts than Cance for 200 k, but then Cav could never have won some of the tougher races he did. You have to remember that this isn‘t even a 200k cornerous farm road or a 200 k cobble race but a motorway and there are also no climbs. Just no chance.

Cancellara should stand still. The accelerations should not be up to full speed (as long as Cav follows him), and when Cav follows closely in the wheel, Cancellara should stand still again.

Draft will play a much smaller role like that, and there will be time for a lot of efforts.

 

[Red Rick]

Red Rick, have you ever raced yourself?

Irrelevant to the point I'm making. Laws of physiology don't change whether I've suckwheeled at a WT or recreational level in my day

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Cancellara should stand still. The accelerations should not be up to full speed (as long as Cav follows him), and when Cav follows closely in the wheel, Cancellara should stand still again.

Draft will play a much smaller role like that, and there will be time for a lot of efforts.

Cancellara was fast but he wasn‘t explosive, I guess it would be his best bet but I don‘t think anyone has ever done a 500 8 second interval challenge and could tell us how it affects those two rider types. There‘s a chance Cancellara does it but there‘s also a chance he isn‘t able to accelerate to any meaningful degree at some point.

 

[pmcg76]

Irrelevant to the point I'm making. Laws of physiology don't change whether I've suckwheeled at a WT or recreational level in my day

Well, actually it does, because what you think happens on paper and what happens in a race are very different. When you come up against someone with a much larger engine, drafting will only get you so far.

For sure, a sprinters speed will match the speed of an attack, but if you have to do that 20/30 times, then it comes down to engine size. If a gap opens at all, game over. It is more than just sitting on a wheel. For sure it is harder to break the chain on the flat, but even if the sprinter manages to stay on the wheel, it may not be a foregone conclusion in a sprint as we do see it happen that a supposedly better sprinter will lose out unexpectedly after a hard race.

 

[YavorD]

I think we won't be able to see the finish of this bike race.
When Cancellara leads for 30-40 kilometres and Cav stays on his wheel without taking turns (cause why would he?), Cancellara will stop working and then we'll have a damp squib, track sprints or something with the race being probably 10 hours long.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I can see the desired scenario setup.
But imagine the two had other plans, starting a real two-man battle from far out, like a track sprint discipline?
Both standing still, then rolling for half a wheel revolution or so, and then again; standstill stalemate game for some time. 200km.
The one who first falls asleep from fatigue has lost.

 

[Cookster15]

Thread actually blows my mind. Like Cavendish couldn't hold the wheel of a bigger rider on a flat road. Like actual wat.

So we are saying Cancellara can't launch then hold a violent attack where Cav couldn't hold his wheel for maybe 5 minutes? Maybe that is right but I don't know? Knowing how Cancellara has destroyed Tour de France prologues I find this surprising.

And also when we say 'flat' road this is unusual on a stage of any reasonable length. Usually there are at least some small hills and that is where it is advantage Cancellera.

Once there is a decent gap of 3 metres or so drafting is neutralized.

I recall I personally had the exact same challenge in a triathlon many years ago. A friend I trained with who is a better swimmer and runner but weaker cyclist than me jumped on my wheel and blatantly drafted when I caught him early in the bike leg. I did several repeated attacks and eventually dropped him. I never saw him again until after the finish line. Once the elastic band snapped it was game over.

Cav's advantage is his explosivity means it would be difficult (but not impossible) for Cancellara to get that gap.

Laws of physiology don't change whether I've suckwheeled at a WT or recreational level in my day

Maybe pros but not recreational level per my example. I think what @QueenStagiaire says is right. But laws of physiology didn't help my friend and I think Cancellara could certainly pull a big enough gap to put Cavendish out of contention on a flat road.

ps - yes I've also raced on the road.

Interesting discussion BTW!

 

[Red Rick]

Well, actually it does, because what you think happens on paper and what happens in a race are very different. When you come up against someone with a much larger engine, drafting will only get you so far.

For sure, a sprinters speed will match the speed of an attack, but if you have to do that 20/30 times, then it comes down to engine size. If a gap opens at all, game over. It is more than just sitting on a wheel. For sure it is harder to break the chain on the flat, but even if the sprinter manages to stay on the wheel, it may not be a foregone conclusion in a sprint as we do see it happen that a supposedly better sprinter will lose out unexpectedly after a hard race.

The usual "sprint after a hard race" has the more durable rider benefitting from both doing an equally hard race. This wouldn't be such a case.

Cancellara was fast but he wasn‘t explosive, I guess it would be his best bet but I don‘t think anyone has ever done a 500 8 second interval challenge and could tell us how it affects those two rider types. There‘s a chance Cancellara does it but there‘s also a chance he isn‘t able to accelerate to any meaningful degree at some point.

Cav could probably sit in front on sleepwalker pace himself, as to ensure that Cancellara has to attack across more distance, and so that accelerating would achieve a higher speed meaning that if Cancellara attacks, Cavendish drafts more anyway. Probably high 20s would do the trick.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Racing yourself is the hardest thing ever!

Indeed. Especially the days you're motivated for defeating yourself.

 

[pmcg76]

The usual "sprint after a hard race" has the more durable rider benefitting from both doing an equally hard race. This wouldn't be such a case.

Cav could probably sit in front on sleepwalker pace himself, as to ensure that Cancellara has to attack across more distance, and so that accelerating would achieve a higher speed meaning that if Cancellara attacks, Cavendish drafts more anyway. Probably high 20s would do the trick.

Trust me, having to follow repeated attacks one-on-one means you are working just as hard' as you also have to do the repeated accelerations and it will eventually come down to the bigger engine.