Who would win, Cancellara or Cavendish

[The Hitch]

+1
is like asking who would win a mile race between michael johnson vs usain bolt.

Michael Johnson easily obviously.

I wanted to see that Bolt vs Bekele 600m race. I dont think Bolts team would go through with it though since he would have no chance.

 

[_frost]

Maybe watching a couple of Team Time Trials where world class classic riders drop from the paceline that Spartacus rides almost exclusively would give a picture what would happen...

 

[soOpOSMthanks!]

Are people really debating this? Cancellara; hands down. Cav's speed be damned...it's a speed that lasts METERS. I'd love to see Cav ride the way Cancellara's physiology allows him to ride, hilarity would ensue. Slowtwitch said it best, read it. End of thread.

 

[flatclimb]

Yea seriously, if there was any competition between the two there would have been by now and we wouldn't be here debating it.

Cav's a one trick pony and it's known throughout the peleton, he knows it too.

He's useless besides sprinting and doesn't deserve any respect when he stops trying because he doesn't have a chance at winning anymore. Proves his mental strength is nothing and if they really did race I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled to the side of the road after 10km.

 

[soOpOSMthanks!]

Yes, but if in a pan-flat, no-cobbles race, Cancellara would not have an opportunity to drop Cav, especially if he is forced to do the work the entire time. In P-R, Cancellara has teammates pulling in order for him to save energy. If there was a pacer in this race, Cancellara would almost definitely win; however, in this case, Cancellara would most likely be forced to pull the entire thing.

I'd also like to thank you for providing me with your hilarious insights on this topic, Fowsto.

 

[Polyarmour]

No wind and pan flat, Cav could not hold on. Cav's best strategy would be to suck Cancellara's wheel and try to hang on but but he would dropped by a combination of surging, attacking and changes in direction. Cav might be somewhat protected behind Cancellara but he won't be protected from the accelerations he has to put in to stay on his wheel. Even the 25% power advantage you get for pacelining only exists at half a wheel length away from the rider in front. Cancellara only needs to open up a few metres gap with constant surging and Cav will be working nearly as hard as Cancellara will be. Initially, Cav will be fast enough to get back on but after 40km of this, Cav's fast twitch muscles will turn to jelly and Cancellara will ride off into the sunset.

I believe there is even an argument that Cancellara is so strong he could ride Cav off his wheel without surging or attacking. That is, at some point in the race he just puts his head down and puts in a fast 20-40km and drops Cav.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Yea seriously, if there was any competition between the two there would have been by now and we wouldn't be here debating it.

Cav's a one trick pony and it's known throughout the peleton, he knows it too.

He's useless besides sprinting and doesn't deserve any respect when he stops trying because he doesn't have a chance at winning anymore. Proves his mental strength is nothing and if they really did race I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled to the side of the road after 10km.

Almost all of the best riders are "one trick ponies" in modern cycling. Or sometimes "one and a half trick ponies". The era of the Merckx, Kelly, etc is over. Specialists rule the roost.

There is nothing inherently "shameful" about being a sprinter who can't climb or compete at a long time trial, any more that there's something "shameful" about being one of the miniature climbers who doubles his weight every time he puts his clothes on.

Cavendish is the fastest sprinter in the world. He's arguably the fastest sprinter there's ever been. I suspect that if you offered his palmares to other riders in exchange for their own at the same age, that there's less than half a dozen active guys who wouldn't bite your hand off. Contador... and well, then you start to run out pretty quickly. "Useless besides sprinting" is a worthless criticism to make of a professional sprinter. Usain Bolt isn't going to win any marathons, I doubt if that fact causes him sleepless nights.

I agree, by the way, that there would be no contest at all in the scenario as set up in the original post. There's simply no way that Cavendish could keep on Cancellara's wheel for that sort of distance. There just isn't enough of a slipstream from one rider, and particularly not from one rider who is trying to drop him. Make it 1k on the other hand and we have no contest in the other direction. Make it 10k and we actually have something to argue about.

 

[The Hitch]

So. Did anyone see E3 yesterday

 

[rghysens]

So. Did anyone see E3 yesterday

Did Cavendish compete?

 

[fatsprintking]

Do ya reckon that maybe Cav spends half his life motorpacing at 50kph+? Do you reckon that one of his "one trick pony" tricks is actually being able to hold a wheel beter than most? Do you reckon that Canc is ever going to get a chance to attack from behind? He can keep accelerating, but with no wind and no hills, Cav is going to be able to hold his wheel easily.

Cancellara not only has to put out a huge amount of power more by being on the front, but he also has to put out more power generally because of his size. His would be a good **** to sit behind.

There is not much respect for Cav here at all. In a 200k time trial Canc destroys Cav, but in a 200k race where Cav would not come to the front until 30 meters to go, its not so clear cut.

Have any of you blokes tried to drop a rider who refuses to work in a two up break. It is very rare that you can, even wih hills and wind. If there is a side wind and you can put the guy in the gutter then you can get away, but a flat straight road with no wind is just about impossible.

If Cancellara gets a chance to attack from behind he gets away easy, but as if Cav is going to let this happen. He will cover Cancellaras accelerations without even getting off the seat.

 

[taiwan]

Did you watch much cycling this weekend?

Cancellara went through the entire E3 Prijs field, riding individuals and groups, weak and strong off his wheel. Cav usually rides in he pack, you'd never even see him in an escape. No way Cav holds the wheel alone for all that time. If he didn't just gently slip away, he'd be gone after the first or second attack. In this scenario, Cav<<Boonen.

 

[fatsprintking]

Did you watch much cycling this weekend?

Cancellara went through the entire E3 Prijs field, riding individuals and groups, weak and strong off his wheel. Cav usually rides in he pack, you'd never even see him in an escape. No way Cav holds the wheel alone for all that time. If he didn't just gently slip away, he'd be gone after the first or second attack. In this scenario, Cav<<Boonen.

Oh - I thought you were going to say that there was a two up race on a flat, windless motorway somewhere, where a big bloke with a massive **** tried to ride away from a little super fast bloke who just sat on his wheel....

A race with hills, cobles and wind is different. I dont doubt that Cancellara could get away from Cav in a two up Ronde.

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

Have you ever seen a sprinter in a TT when another rider passes them?

Why would a sprinter be trying to do well in a time trial? of course they look like they are standing still compared to a rider who is actually trying, they are aiming for the slowest allowable TT time to continue the tour.

 

[taiwan]

Oh - I thought you were going to say that there was a two up race on a flat, windless motorway somewhere, where a big bloke with a massive **** tried to ride away from a little super fast bloke who just sat on his wheel....

A race with hills, cobles and wind is different. I dont doubt that Cancellara could get away from Cav in a two up Ronde.

He dropped Boonen and Flecha on a roundabout last year. There probably isn't a harder wheel to hold in the peloton on the flat. It's not the same as getting pulled around by Renshaw, or motorpacing.

 

[fatsprintking]

He dropped Boonen and Flecha on a roundabout last year. There probably isn't a harder wheel to hold in the peloton. It's not the same as getting pulled around by Renshaw, or motorpacing.

Didnt do so well at dropping Goss last week.

 

[taiwan]

Didnt do so well at dropping Goss last week.

You mean in the sprint? Well no, he didn't "drop" him.

 

[El Pistolero]

Didnt do so well at dropping Goss last week.

Goss > Cavendish.

 

[djlovesyou]

Have any of you blokes tried to drop a rider who refuses to work in a two up break. It is very rare that you can, even wih hills and wind. If there is a side wind and you can put the guy in the gutter then you can get away, but a flat straight road with no wind is just about impossible.

Obviously it is very rare, but we're talking about Fabian Cancellara, not some weekend warrior.

He's got 5 hours to gap Cavendish, once he gets that gap he's gone. Early on, Cav can use his speed to get back on the wheel but there are only so many times he would be able to do it.

Fab will be hurting by the time he gets away, but not as bad as Cav. Once he gets a gap, he just rides away.

 

[fatsprintking]

You mean in the sprint? Well no, he didn't "drop" him.

Wasnt there 298km before the sprint?

 

[fatsprintking]

Obviously it is very rare, but we're talking about Fabian Cancellara, not some weekend warrior.

He's got 5 hours to gap Cavendish, once he gets that gap he's gone. Early on, Cav can use his speed to get back on the wheel but there are only so many times he would be able to do it.

Fab will be hurting by the time he gets away, but not as bad as Cav. Once he gets a gap, he just rides away.

Everyone keeps talking about Cavendish "getting back on the wheel". He's never going to "off" the wheel. He can accelerate faster than Cancellara, so how is he going to be dropped unless Cancellara attacks from behind? How is Cancellara going to attack from behind while Cav is on his wheel?

 

[taiwan]

Wasnt there 298km before the sprint?

That would have required him to drop everyone else also and solo for 300k, which might be beyond even him, I'm afraid. Later on in the race he would have had to drop like 40 guys, and in the finale he would have had to attack Gilbert, Pozzato and Ballan, which is obviously much harder than just losing Goss.

Everyone keeps talking about Cavendish being "getting back on the wheel". He's never going to "off" the wheel. He can accelerate faster than Cancellara, so how is he going to be dropped unless Cancellara attacks from behind? How is Cancellara going to attack from behind while Cav is on his wheel?

Cav doesn't get that much of a draft off one rider, after a time he fatigues, a bike length momentarily opens up, it's over.

 

[fatsprintking]

That would have required him to drop everyone else also and solo for 300k, which might be beyond even him, I'm afraid. Later on in the race he would have had to drop like 40 guys, and in the finale he would have had to attack Gilbert, Pozzato and Ballan, which is obviously much harder than just losing Goss.



Cav doesn't get that much of a draft off one rider, after a time he fatigues, a bike length momentarily opens up, it's over.

The studies that I have seen have quoted 27% advantage for a single rider drafting anouther rider @ 40kph. This is for equal sized riders, Cancelara is much bigger than Cav so potentially he has a greater advantage.

The advantage of the drafting rider is huge in pure physics terms, but from a tactical point of view, the ability to respond immediatelly to the rider in front changing pace is also huge - only a very inexperienced rider would be dropped by a rider simply riding away from them unless there was a climb or a side wind which were not cited in this example.

27% means that even with his superior genetics for threshold power, Cancellara is still riding closer to his threshold than Cavandish, meaning that it is Cavendish that has reserves as long as he does not come to the front.

The "Race" would be a game where Cancellara would be trying to coax Cavendish to come from behind his wheel and Cavendish would be refusing to do so. It could be a 200k race that takes 10 hours depending on what Cancellara decides to do. He may win if he can catch Cav napping, but the idea that he just rides off into the sunset is a bit off the mark when you look at the raw figures that are required to do this.

 

[taiwan]

The studies that I have seen have quoted 27% advantage for a single rider drafting anouther rider @ 40kph. This is for equal sized riders, Cancelara is much bigger than Cav so potentially he has a greater advantage.

The advantage of the drafting rider is huge in pure physics terms, but from a tactical point of view, the ability to respond immediatelly to the rider in front changing pace is also huge - only a very inexperienced rider would be dropped by a rider simply riding away from them unless there was a climb or a side wind which were not cited in this example.

27% means that even with his superior genetics for threshold power, Cancellara is still riding closer to his threshold than Cavandish, meaning that it is Cavendish that has reserves as long as he does not come to the front.

The "Race" would be a game where Cancellara would be trying to coax Cavendish to come from behind his wheel and Cavendish would be refusing to do so. It could be a 200k race that takes 10 hours depending on what Cancellara decides to do. He may win if he can catch Cav napping, but the idea that he just rides off into the sunset is a bit off the mark when you look at the raw figures that are required to do this.

Just no. Cav is much more exposed than either during motorpacing or in the bunch where he usually rides. Cancellara can burn all those other riders off the wheel in real races, he can do it to Cav in this scenario.

 

[hughmoore]

Im enjoying this thread, I would say Canc, but not sure on dead pan road with no wind, so leanning back to Cavs ability to draft.

What we need is a computer simulation like in Rocky Balboa.


Hugh

 

[fatsprintking]

Just no. Cav is much more exposed than either during motorpacing or in the bunch where he usually rides. Cancellara can burn all those other riders off the wheel in real races, he can do it to Cav in this scenario.

Oh yes yes yes. Cav is much more exposed than in the bunch but he still gets a huge advantage. Cancellara can ride away from others in a race situation because there are multiple tactical battles going on and this creates hesitations and "games" where people wait for other to chase. All Cav has to do is hold one wheel. I am not sure that Cancellara provides much less draft than a 4ft11 50kg italian girl riding a vespa, but I might be wrong. I have not seen the figures for this.

The peleton also rides faster than Cancellara on his own, so Cav getting less draft has to be looked at in the context of a slower overall pace. It has to be looked at in terms of the power Cancellara needs to be in front versus what Cav needs to stay behind - The difference is huge. Every attack from the front costs Cancellara more than Cav.

No wind and a flat road means that there is nowhere to get a tactical advantage from superior sustainable power.