I'm not saying that Menchov doesn't have a chance to do something in this Tour de France. I think that he could very much get a place in the top 6 or even better, maybe even win the whole thing. I'm just saying that you can't possibly say that Menchov is more of a favourite than Wiggins is. Menchov is a very good time trialist but Wiggins is much better and I also think that Menchov is maybe the best climber(?) in this years TdF when on top form. But Wiggins is certainly good enough to wheelsuck to lose max 30sec on a mountain stage.OctaBech said:Yes, do repeat the Carlos Sastre 2008 mistake. People looked at all iTTs where Carlos no longer was in competition for the overall win and missed the one where he actually rode for the win. The same way people only focused on Cadel's second the year before and forgot how Saster had constantly been in top 10 (moving to top 5) minus that previous year.
No, victories in one week races tell nothing about 3 week races, especially not TdF, where they ride so much harder.
What is important is the shape Menchov shows now, because we know that when in shape, Menchov is a damned good time trialist and a better climber than Fränk Schleck.
The biggest problem Menchov is going to face is his preferred way of saving energy. While the competitors sit aware in the front, he prefers to rest in the middle of the peloton, with the dangers there goes with it. Menchov has more than once been caught by cross-wind attacks and crashes, but if he's lucky enough to avoid those then he will be a clear competitor for the podium.