Why Lance will dodge this bullet.

[python]

he wont dodge if...

i think it’s too early to say anything about armstrong’s chances to skate. everything will depend on how deep and wide the fda investigation will get.

there is a ton of evidence that armstrong doped. flandis added only a pound to the ton. the biggest bomb floyd dropped was armstrong’s personal involvement in pushing and facilitating ped on his teams.

firming up and validating evidence of that is the real challenge for novitzky. i cant imagine armstrong procuring drugs by himself - so the leads (the emails, receipts, diary records etc) all exist but novitzky needs to uncover and connect them.

i imagine that usada without the additional evidence of positive tests will run into the wall pretty soon.

can they find more doping evidence in armstrong’s biological samples ?

i think they can if any samples from 2005 and earlier were left in storage. the likeliest gold mind is not armstrong’s pss but his blood samples or more accurately his frozen plasma - the only practical thing the labs occasionally store as storing cells requires a more complicated technology the wada labs don’t have.. We are not talking about bio passport samples but the single (not a&b) medical check samples (mandatory 4 times a year) and the pre-race ‘health’ samples perhaps a dozen/year. these are 3 to 5 millilitre aliquots normally disposed of upon test completion but occasionally stored for future research. do they exist for armstrong ? I have no idea. but if they do i know where they are with 100% certainty - in lausanne’s wada lab. i also know who has the key to them - the answer is very disappointing - the uci.

the usada can’t get that key. but fda with its power of subpoena can. will they go that far ?

 

[nevada]

Someone paid someone for these PED's and it would not take an forensic accountant to long to start asking difficult questions.

 

[Oldman]

[QUOTE=python;226815]i think it’s too early to say anything about armstrong’s chances to skate. everything will depend on how deep and wide the fda investigation will get.


the usada can’t get that key. but fda with its power of subpoena can. will they go that far ?[/QUOTE]

Lance has the mean$ and is already buying ice in a safe haven, you can bet on that.
The Feds will certainly subpoena but with upstream players like UCI and IOC you can't tell what pressure he'll be under.

 

[python]

[QUOTE=python;226815]i think it’s too early to say anything about armstrong’s chances to skate. everything will depend on how deep and wide the fda investigation will get.


the usada can’t get that key. but fda with its power of subpoena can. will they go that far ?Lance has the mean$ and is already buying ice in a safe haven, you can bet on that.
The Feds will certainly subpoena but with upstream players like UCI and IOC you can't tell what pressure he'll be under

.

once the united states drug crime authority gets involved the uci and the ioc become little shyte players who will be shoved aside like the useless garbage they are. one call from novitzky to his boss and one email from his boss to the appropriate face in switzerland and everything will start rolling in the right direction. the problem is - do they have the samples.

 

[Sheltowee]

If the actual percentages of dopers being 80-90% as some have suggested that would mean that there are about 30 clean riders every year in the TDF.

If Lance and the other big names are all found to have been manipulating their blood and flying under the radar it would mean that oragnizers have no way of policing the riders. We never will know who is clean so everyone looks the other way and unless a rider is found to be doing something more blatant they are not caught.

By crucifying Lance and the others to follow it will call into question Contador and every other winner through 160th place finisher in the TDF going back years.

I doubt anything will come out of this. Now, that the officials know what is going on they will surely catch future offenders. I doubt they will pursue past offenders and this will all fizzle out as time passes.

I also doubt that much will come out of this, but anyone who saw (and who has raced a bike on moutains) the Contador & Rasmussen freak show in 07 will usually question all of Contador's GT wins. A thinking person with empirical knowledge of the sport can't help but question his wins just like the 06 Floyd Landis' victory and Armstrong especially so in 04.

 

[red_flanders]

I also doubt that much will come out of this, but anyone who saw (and who has raced a bike on moutains) the Contador & Rasmussen freak show in 07 will usually question all of Contador's GT wins. A thinking person with empirical knowledge of the sport can't help but question his wins just like the 06 Floyd Landis' victory and Armstrong especially so in 04.

I find it difficult to question anyone's wins since about 1994, since I wouldn't know where to find the first clean guy. Riis, Ullrich, Pantani, Armstrong, Landis, Contador--all oxygen vector doped in one fashion or another, and all their competitors were similarly doped.

I question Indurain's wins more than anyone's.

 

[scribe]

Isn’t it comforting that an uneducated Mennonite hick from the sticks knows more about doping than Dr Ashenden and Dr Catlin.

Yea, it would never have occurred to me to work with an ex or compliant cyclist to find out how to beat the system.

I don't believe for a moment governing authorities over cycling and doping don't know exactly what the athletes are doing. The testing for it us the problem they obviously can't solve.

 

[Oldman]

once the united states drug crime authority gets involved the uci and the ioc become little shyte players who will be shoved aside like the useless garbage they are. one call from novitzky to his boss and one email from his boss to the appropriate face in switzerland and everything will start rolling in the right direction. the problem is - do they have the samples.

No question. I meant to suggest maybe Armstrong becomes less newsworthy if they actually go after something as big and entrenched as the IOC.

 

[Tubeless]

i think it’s too early to say anything about armstrong’s chances to skate. everything will depend on how deep and wide the fda investigation will get.

there is a ton of evidence that armstrong doped. flandis added only a pound to the ton. the biggest bomb floyd dropped was armstrong’s personal involvement in pushing and facilitating ped on his teams.

firming up and validating evidence of that is the real challenge for novitzky. i cant imagine armstrong procuring drugs by himself - so the leads (the emails, receipts, diary records etc) all exist but novitzky needs to uncover and connect them.

i imagine that usada without the additional evidence of positive tests will run into the wall pretty soon.

can they find more doping evidence in armstrong’s biological samples ?

i think they can if any samples from 2005 and earlier were left in storage. the likeliest gold mind is not armstrong’s pss but his blood samples or more accurately his frozen plasma - the only practical thing the labs occasionally store as storing cells requires a more complicated technology the wada labs don’t have.. We are not talking about bio passport samples but the single (not a&b) medical check samples (mandatory 4 times a year) and the pre-race ‘health’ samples perhaps a dozen/year. these are 3 to 5 millilitre aliquots normally disposed of upon test completion but occasionally stored for future research. do they exist for armstrong ? I have no idea. but if they do i know where they are with 100% certainty - in lausanne’s wada lab. i also know who has the key to them - the answer is very disappointing - the uci.

the usada can’t get that key. but fda with its power of subpoena can. will they go that far ?

FDA's subpoena powers don't extend across US borders.

 

[scribe]

FDA's subpoena powers don't extend across US borders.

I think this will become the deal-breaker in all this. This one aint limited to the bay area, for nowitsky. There is a greater chance of convicting someone for smoking el'POTo in Amsterdam.

 

[janus1969]

Saying you will be surprised if Novitsky comes up with anything is a ridiculous statement. No one knows at this point either way it will go.

and if Lance becomes the punchline that the 3 players mentioned do you seriously think he would be Ok with that? That's 2 foolish and unsupportable assertions in one pargraph.

Sigh...the TRUTH is likely never coming out, but if it does, the earlier assertion that 160-ish riders from the TdF will be implicated is likely MUCH more correct. It won't be LA alone...they either stand together or everyone dies alone. That's the problem with this hyped-up, attack dog concept being espoused.

There hasn't been ONE clean contender in the TdF since at LEAST 1995, and that assumes that Big Mig was clean and I'm honestly sure he wasn't...hell, I'm absolutely SURE that Greg was no angel either, which is why I put so little credence to his statements.

EVERY winner will be proven to be "clean" or none will. EVERY team will be proven to be "clean" or none will. I'm talking Pro Tour level teams. We all know that they're not clean...but it is suicide to capitulate.

Oh, and if you think AC is clean...you are absolutely dreaming...the Spanish have TAUGHT the modern techniques to the peloton and AC has already had brushes with things...

 

[eleven]

Saying you will be surprised if Novitsky comes up with anything is a ridiculous statement. No one knows at this point either way it will go.

So, you admit that no one knows what will happen but you think it's ridiculous for me to say I doubt Novitsky will come up with anything?

Can you explain that to me? Because based on the information I've seen and my understanding of the applicable laws, I will be surprised if Novitsky comes up with anything.

and if Lance becomes the punchline that the 3 players mentioned do you seriously think he would be Ok with that?

No, nor did I say that. I said that IF the invstigation demonstrates that he doped and acted contrary to US law, he'd be OK with ending up in the situation that Clemens etal now find themselves - namely, very wealthy, free men living their lives as they see fit; some even returning to their sport.

That's 2 foolish and unsupportable assertions in one pargraph.

^this kind of nonsense really strengthens your point.

 

[Tubeless]

I think this will become the deal-breaker in all this. This one aint limited to the bay area, for nowitsky. There is a greater chance of convicting someone for smoking el'POTo in Amsterdam.

Nowitsky is largely limited to get his evidence from the US. US Postal was a domestic team. He can try to get records from that era but it's been a while ago, and an inactive team's books are likely not in anyone's storage (or are burning on LA's bbq as we speak). His best chance is to question US Postal personnel, but once again it'll likely be limited to US citizens. However, there should be enough of them around - and he'd be smart to start with now-inactive US Postal riders (e.g. Andreau, Hamilton) and move from there to corner others (Hincapie, Leipheimer etc.).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_Channel_Pro_Cycling_Team#Former_members_of_U.S._Postal

If US Postal has a team-organized doping program, that can be proven with first-hand witness accounts only. Fingering Lance to be the ringleader should also be possible. And to prove fraud, finding written statements that US Postal claimed to be doping-free should not be hard...

 

[131313]

I said that IF the invstigation demonstrates that he doped and acted contrary to US law, he'd be OK with ending up in the situation that Clemens etal now find themselves - namely, very wealthy, free men living their lives as they see fit; some even returning to their sport.

I think that's pretty unlikely. That 5 million dollar bonus will likely be the undoing for Big Tex, and I think it's pretty likely he'll actually end up in jail if it's demonstrated to have taken performance-enhancing drugs. There's the perjury charge from his sworn deposition, and a potential fraud charge in his collection of the bonus.

The SCA lawyers are chomping at the bit to get the settlement invalidated. 7.5 million is actually a lot of money, and more importantly lawyers hate to lose. They aren't just going to let this one go.

 

[buckwheat]

I'll be surprised if anything comes of the Novitsky investigation, but if the smoke produces fire and it develops along the lines of what has happened to McGwire, Clemens or Bonds I think Lance would be quite fine with the outcome.

The Novitsky investigation is already well along.

Smoke doesn't produce fire. It's the other way around. It's the smoke that usually kills too.

Mc Gwire, Clemens, and Bonds were the end users. Armstrong's role isn't analogous to that of Bonds. His role is more like the role Victor Conte played. Armstrong is a partner in the ownership of his teams. Bruyneel works for Armstrong. That's part of what makes Armstrongs 2009 TdF nonsense about Contador not following team orders, absurd. Even though the Kazahks own Astana, the pecking order of the team was Armstrong, then Bruyneel.

Anyway, Novitzsky, having subpoena power is going to break this thing. I don't see the lesser players going to prison for obstruction and LE doesn't like to be bull$hitted by arrogant a$sholes with agendas. That's like raw meat in front of a pit bull.

Anyone who thinks Novitsky is going to close up shop without some convictions, is kidding themselves.

The guy has a license to kick a$s. A power very few people obtain.

 

[scribe]

The Novitsky investigation is already well along.

Smoke doesn't produce fire. It's the other way around. It's the smoke that usually kills too.

Mc Gwire, Clemens, and Bonds were the end users. Armstrong's role isn't analogous to that of Bonds. His role is more like the role Victor Conte played. Armstrong is a partner in the ownership of his teams. Bruyneel works for Armstrong. That's part of what makes Armstrongs 2009 TdF nonsense about Contador not following team orders, absurd. Even though the Kazahks own Astana, the pecking order of the team was Armstrong, then Bruyneel.

Anyway, Novitzsky, having subpoena power is going to break this thing. I don't see the lesser players going to prison for obstruction and LE doesn't like to be bull$hitted by arrogant a$sholes with agendas. That's like raw meat in front of a pit bull.

Anyone who thinks Novitsky is going to close up shop without some convictions, is kidding themselves.

The guy has a license to kick a$s. A power very few people obtain.

You obviously watch a lot of cop shows on primetime television.

 

[buckwheat]

Sigh...the TRUTH is likely never coming out, but if it does, the earlier assertion that 160-ish riders from the TdF will be implicated is likely MUCH more correct. It won't be LA alone...they either stand together or everyone dies alone. That's the problem with this hyped-up, attack dog concept being espoused....

The truth has already come out. It's just a matter of it being admissable in court and whether convictions can be obtained.

You don't think that Novitzky is going to question Hincapie?

Hincapie is cracking already in the press talking this whiny stuff about how he's given his life to the sport.

Guaranteed they turn him. He has his sportswear company to think about and I'm sure they are threatening that and his retreat in SC.

He has three choices. Truth, Lie, or plead the 5th.

They'll be playing on his conscience, his kids, his finances.

With SI and the NYT fighting over this story, you don't think there are going to be leaks by the investigation to either Macur or Austin Murphy? Please.

Unless he tells the truth he's toast.

 

[Kennf1]

I think that's pretty unlikely. That 5 million dollar bonus will likely be the undoing for Big Tex, and I think it's pretty likely he'll actually end up in jail if it's demonstrated to have taken performance-enhancing drugs. There's the perjury charge from his sworn deposition, and a potential fraud charge in his collection of the bonus.

The SCA lawyers are chomping at the bit to get the settlement invalidated. 7.5 million is actually a lot of money, and more importantly lawyers hate to lose. They aren't just going to let this one go.

I've been thinking about the SCA deal. I'm wondering if they will sit back and let the official investigation run its course first. Their civil suit would be for fraud, and they would seek punitive damages.

 

[buckwheat]

You obviously watch a lot of cop shows on primetime television.

Have you taken down your Armstrong posters yet?

You do realize that "cops" are the consultants on cop shows and retired military consults on movies?

It's all about money, and no one is immune to money and fame.

BTW, I enjoyed your meaningless point.

Why bother to talk if you're not going to say "anything?"

 

[scribe]

Have you taken down your Armstrong posters yet?

You do realize that "cops" are the consultants on cop shows and retired military consults on movies?

It's all about money, and no one is immune to money and fame.

Yes. And Ronald McDonald consults on any changes McD's makes to their Happy Meals™.

 

[Tubeless]

The Novitsky investigation is already well along.

Smoke doesn't produce fire. It's the other way around. It's the smoke that usually kills too.

Mc Gwire, Clemens, and Bonds were the end users. Armstrong's role isn't analogous to that of Bonds. His role is more like the role Victor Conte played. Armstrong is a partner in the ownership of his teams. Bruyneel works for Armstrong. That's part of what makes Armstrongs 2009 TdF nonsense about Contador not following team orders, absurd. Even though the Kazahks own Astana, the pecking order of the team was Armstrong, then Bruyneel.

Anyway, Novitzsky, having subpoena power is going to break this thing. I don't see the lesser players going to prison for obstruction and LE doesn't like to be bull$hitted by arrogant a$sholes with agendas. That's like raw meat in front of a pit bull.

Anyone who thinks Novitsky is going to close up shop without some convictions, is kidding themselves.

The guy has a license to kick a$s. A power very few people obtain.

It's ironic but Lance's deposition in the SCA case (where he remembered almost nothing and purposely tried to frustrate the SCA attorney) is now coming back to haunt him. It is the kind of written record that an experienced investigator will see for what it is - a bully who's guilty and taking advantage of the limited power of civil litigation. With Landis' cooperation, the unchallenged evidence from the SCA case, and the past admissions of US Postal riders having taken EPO, Nowitsky does not need to be convinced of what happened.

He simply needs to get the proof that can stand in court. It helps that the public opinion has turned so he's likely to have free hands, enough funding and sufficient time to do whatever it takes to make the case. But this will take some time - many months.

In the meantime, will Lance be riding TdF? You'd think RadioShack (the sponsor) must be concerned. ASO could also uninvite his team, or Lance personally - to prevent a distracting scandal should some news from the investigation come out during the tour?

 

[scribe]

In the meantime, will Lance be riding TdF? You'd think RadioScack (the sponsor) must be concerned. ASO could also uninvite his team, or Lance personally - to prevent a distracting scandal should some news from the investigation come out during the tour?

I think this was the initial goal with all of this. Start right before the tour to derail the invitation and apparent swansong effort by LA. Landis does know how to lower the boom.

 

[buckwheat]

I think this will become the deal-breaker in all this. This one aint limited to the bay area, for nowitsky. There is a greater chance of convicting someone for smoking el'POTo in Amsterdam.

Testing has very little to do with this investigation. That may come to light, but the issue is the cooperation of the people of interest.

It's not like they are dealing with people like John Gotti who are going to clam up because they already have a widely known bad reputation.

Most of the players here rely on good PR. Not cooperating with a Federal Investigation clearly doesn't enhance PR.

 

[131313]

I've been thinking about the SCA deal. I'm wondering if they will sit back and let the official investigation run its course first. Their civil suit would be for fraud, and they would seek punitive damages.

Seems to me it would be in their best interest to wait as long as the court allows (I'm not familiar with the specific statutes). They aren't going to try to prove that LA took performance-enhancing drugs. They already tried that, and got cold feet before it went to the arbitration panel.

If that does get proven, by any sanctioning body (USAC, WADA, the feds), they'll pressure the DA to go after LA for perjury relating to the deposition, which is a criminal offense. Having a finding in that case will then make the civil case to invalidate the settlement pretty much a slam dunk.

At that point it's a stone's throw away to fraud charges.

 

[buckwheat]

Yes. And Ronald McDonald consults on any changes McD's makes to their Happy Meals™.

Substance?

Hey, do you think all these guys like Hincapie, Zabriskie, Leipheimer, Steve Johnson, Weisel, et al. are directing these inquiries to their lawyers or are answering questions? How about Carmichael? He's already settled a doping case. He's made a fair bit of money. Won't look too good for his "training" business if some bad PR comes out about his stonewalling the Feds, will it? You think he'll go down for Lance? I don't.

High cadence? LMAO....