Why Lance will dodge this bullet.

[FastMatt]

There hasn't been ONE clean contender in the TdF since at LEAST 1995, and that assumes that Big Mig was clean and I'm honestly sure he wasn't...hell, I'm absolutely SURE that Greg was no angel either, which is why I put so little credence to his statements.

My thoughts exactly... The last clean winner was probably Hinault or Fignon in '84-'85. Although the proliferation of the peloton occured some years later in the early to mid '90's.

The once minority of dopers is now the majority in the peloton. If grand tours were really clean there would be no continental team participating. It would be mostly club riders like myself, who could not complete the entire 3 week tour.

What was the attrition rate of riders before the doping days? I would assume many more riders dropped out on the second and third weeks before the "enhanced" peloton was common.

 

[theswordsman]

It's gonna get fun. I just read that Novitsky was with the IRS before he went to the FDA. Subpoenas, wire taps - they could put guys undercover, go after test samples. Good times

 

[RhodriM]

I'm really surprised at how the media have turned. They wouldn't step out of line a few years ago but now they smell blood suddenly they've found their voice.

Actually, maybe that doesn't surprise me.

Even if he 'dodges the bullet' he's now no longer untouchable in most people's eyes.

 

[FastMatt]

There hasn't been ONE clean contender in the TdF since at LEAST 1995, and that assumes that Big Mig was clean and I'm honestly sure he wasn't...hell, I'm absolutely SURE that Greg was no angel either, which is why I put so little credence to his statements.

My thoughts exactly... The last clean winner was probably Hinault or Fignon in '84-'85. Although the proliferation of the peloton occured some years later in the early to mid '90's.

The once minority of dopers is now the majority in the peloton. If grand tours were really clean there would be no continental team participating. It would be mostly club riders like myself, who could not complete the entire 3 week tour.

What was the attrition rate of riders before the doping days? I would assume many more riders dropped out on the second and third weeks before the "enhanced" peloton was common.

 

[scribe]

I'm really surprised at how the media have turned. They wouldn't step out of line a few years ago but now they smell blood suddenly they've found their voice.

Actually, maybe that doesn't surprise me.

Even if he 'dodges the bullet' he's now no longer untouchable in most people's eyes.

No matter what, I doubt LA doesn't tweet about reading the NYT's anymore. I'd be surprised if he does, confirming his penchant for holding grudges.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

The tour has always been "doping days" and hasn't Fignon recently admitted to taking stuff?

To my mind there actually seem to be fewer guys dropping out or being eliminated in the last couple of years. There haven't been (so many) ridiculous individual mountain demonstrations of EPO leaving guys to get inside % time limits on mountain stages with 40km/h+ average speeds

There hasn't been ONE clean contender in the TdF since at LEAST 1995, and that assumes that Big Mig was clean and I'm honestly sure he wasn't...hell, I'm absolutely SURE that Greg was no angel either, which is why I put so little credence to his statements.

My thoughts exactly... The last clean winner was probably Hinault or Fignon in '84-'85. Although the proliferation of the peloton occured some years later in the early to mid '90's.

The once minority of dopers is now the majority in the peloton. If grand tours were really clean there would be no continental team participating. It would be mostly club riders like myself, who could not complete the entire 3 week tour.

What was the attrition rate of riders before the doping days? I would assume many more riders dropped out on the second and third weeks before the "enhanced" peloton was common.

 

[RhodriM]

No matter what, I doubt LA doesn't tweet about reading the NYT's anymore. I'd be surprised if he does, confirming his penchant for holding grudges.

Seems to me the usual response is to go on the attack, to denounce a critic as not credible, or whip up a frenzy on twitter(like they did to Contador).

But this time, the 'trolls'(as I believe he calls them) are so numerous he can't go after them all; he seems to be pretending to ignore it.

 

[Tubeless]

Seems to me it would be in their best interest to wait as long as the court allows (I'm not familiar with the specific statutes). They aren't going to try to prove that LA took performance-enhancing drugs. They already tried that, and got cold feet before it went to the arbitration panel.

If that does get proven, by any sanctioning body (USAC, WADA, the feds), they'll pressure the DA to go after LA for perjury relating to the deposition, which is a criminal offense. Having a finding in that case will then make the civil case to invalidate the settlement pretty much a slam dunk.

At that point it's a stone's throw away to fraud charges.

Even if there's no actual conviction, this could get expensive for LA long term. He won't be able to buy or bribe his way out of the present trouble. If it ends badly, he'll lose future earnings from sponsorships, appearance fees and probably also the income generated through his foundation. But who else besides SCA would sue for damages for his past misrepresentations?

 

[buckwheat]

Even if there's no actual conviction, this could get expensive for LA long term. He won't be able to buy or bribe his way out of the present trouble. If it ends badly, he'll lose future earnings from sponsorships, appearance fees and probably also the income generated through his foundation. But who else besides SCA would sue for damages for his past misrepresentations?

The absolute best Pharmstrong can hope for is a Bonds like ending.

That's not good for lance because he has much better PR than Bonds ever had. Bonds was always looked on as a ***. Even when he was clean.

 

[eleven]

The absolute best Pharmstrong can hope for is a Bonds like ending.

That's not good for lance because he has much better PR than Bonds ever had. Bonds was always looked on as a ***. Even when he was clean.

1. When was Bonds clean?

2. You're making a rather large assumption that the facts in this case are at all analogous to the case against Bonds (who, by the way, is free to pursue a career in baseball)

 

[buckwheat]

Seems to me the usual response is to go on the attack, to denounce a critic as not credible, or whip up a frenzy on twitter(like they did to Contador).

But this time, the 'trolls'(as I believe he calls them) are so numerous he can't go after them all; he seems to be pretending to ignore it.

This time, although LA won't acknowledge it, the chief troll is Novitsky.

He absolutely cannot go after Novitsky unless he wants to utilize the other Federal Agents who have had problems with Novitsky. Novitsky won those battles and I doubt they will be re fought.

Besides, lance already said he would cooperate with the investigation.

 

[buckwheat]

1. When was Bonds clean?...

Get some background, then we'll talk.

2. You're making a rather large assumption that the facts in this case are at all analogous to the case against Bonds (who, by the way, is free to pursue a career in baseball...

A Federal Investigation into doping in sports as a crime, no assumption required at all.

Yes, Bonds is free to play. BTW, what 45 year old who has relied on PED's for the last 12 years has made a comeback?

Lance riding clean would be as embarrassing as Bonds trying to comeback clean. Won't happen.

 

[eleven]

Get some background, then we'll talk.

I have "some background". Can you demonstrate that Bonds was not using PED's while a Pirate?

A Federal Investigation into doping in sports as a crime, no assumption required at all.

Just because the charge is similar doesn't make the facts of the case similar.

Yes, Bonds is free to play. BTW, what 45 year old who has relied on PED's for the last 12 years has made a comeback?

Well, I did watch Mark McGwire giving batting practice lessons this week. He's back...to thunderous applause in Cardinal Red.

 

[BYOP88]

Get some background, then we'll talk.




A Federal Investigation into doping in sports as a crime, no assumption required at all.

Yes, Bonds is free to play. BTW, what 45 year old who has relied on PED's for the last 12 years has made a comeback?

Lance riding clean would be as embarrassing as Bonds trying to comeback clean. Won't happen.

If Bonds was going to come back he'd already have been signed by now.

 

[BYOP88]

I have "some background". Can you demonstrate that Bonds was not using PED's while a Pirate?





Just because the charge is similar doesn't make the facts of the case similar.


Well, I did watch Mark McGwire giving batting practice lessons this week. He's back...to thunderous applause in Cardinal Red.

Didn't Mark make an "apology" though?

 

[eleven]

Didn't Mark make an "apology" though?

McGwire did apologize, yes. (if you can call what he said an "apology")

 

[buckwheat]

I have "some background". Can you demonstrate that Bonds was not using PED's while a Pirate?

Clearly, he wasn't using steroids. Have greenies ever turned a sows ear into a silk purse in baseball?

Can you demonstrate he was using PED's as a Pirate.

Can you demonstrate you didn't cheat to attain your position in life?

You realize your question is crazy?

Just because the charge is similar doesn't make the facts of the case similar.?

Every aspect of the case is much more serious for the principle target.

Well, I did watch Mark McGwire giving batting practice lessons this week. He's back...to thunderous applause in Cardinal Red.

Speaks to the standards of the audience.

I'll be charitable and say that maybe they think he's suffered enough.

At any rate, he's never going to get that thunderous applause at a HOF induction ceremony. Where is he on the list of all time home run leaders? And will never be in the HOF.

 

[buckwheat]

If Bonds was going to come back he'd already have been signed by now.

It wasn't me that was arguing that he was free to play.

 

[eleven]

Clearly, he wasn't using steroids. Have greenies ever turned a sows ear into a silk purse in baseball?

Can you demonstrate he was using PED's as a Pirate.

No, I can not demonstrate that Bonds was using PED's as a Pirate. Without hard evidence, I can also not demonstrate that Lance Armstrong forced fellow team members to dope as part of their contract with a team he lead and later had part ownership in.

Every aspect of the case is much more serious for the principle target.

again, just because the charges are similar does not mean the facts are similar. And the level of guilt is not measured by the seriousness of the charge

Speaks to the standards of the audience.

Lol....yes, St Louis fans are certainly knows as substandard! When I think of great fans, Cardinal fans never come to mind. Low standards, them.

As for the HoF, time will tell but I suspect you're right. Which is unfortunate because both he and Bonds were good candidates long before they started smashing 60+ HR's and presumably before they started juicing.

 

[Tubeless]

Original thread question was - is there a way Lance can dodge this bullet?

This is not a doping test matter, but a criminal investigation. We know FDA is the federal agency in charge. They have a credible, experienced agent named to hande the case. Is Novitsky sufficiently motivated? Nailing Lance would add another well-known case to his prosecutorial record - fame, not fortune is what typically what motivates these career-investigators.

There are many federal investigations that go nowhere, including some that have been leaked to press. Somtimes politicians interfere and try to pressure to shelve the investigation - with justifications such as relative priorities, conflicting investigations by other federal agencies or some such seemingly valid excuse. Does Lance have any friends in high-enough places? Senators, congressmen, administration officials, FDA management? Given the recent PR reaction, it could be a risky move by a politician to get involved - it would probably not stay confidential at this stage.

That leaves how much evidence Novitsky will be able to collect to first get an indictment and then the eventual conviction - and what laws he's targeting as having been broken. This may prove to be a laborous and time-consuming phase, but given the facts are not in dispute, should eventually be successful. A press piece discussed that statue of limitations is 5 years for certain applicable crimes - the fact that the investigation is proceeding would suggest that the investigation does not cover just the US Postal team time frame, but also that of the Discovery Channel team, which started in June 2004. Lance's last TdF victory is from July 2005 - just less than 5 years ago.

The only way out for Lance would probably be a distraction - a new event that's deemed a higher priority for FDA and this agent to focus its energies on at the moment. But even in that case, the likely outcome is that the case would be just delayed, not cancelled.

 

[VeloCity]

I can also not demonstrate that Lance Armstrong forced fellow team members to dope as part of their contract with a team he lead and later had part ownership in.

well, that's what we're about to find out, isn't it.

 

[Publicus]

I was reading over Lance's deposition in the SCA case and I think the UCI and Lance are being a bit clever. There were in fact two payments. One made some years before 2005. And another made after he retired, the one for $100,000.

After talking about the $25M or so that he had previously donated "some years ago" (Armstrong can't recall the specifics), the questioning attorney asks:

Q: "Had you ever given any money to UCI before?"

A: "No"

Q: "Have you ever given any money since?

A: "I have pledged money since, but I don't think I've done it yet."

(I typed this in from the transcript, couldn't copy and paste)

Now this was in 2005. So, I think this is a clear reference to the $100,000. So this raises the question, which should be directed to Pat McQuaid and Lance Armstrong, when was this money received and what did the UCI do with those funds?

 

[Benotti69]

where did he get the name 'Mellow Johnny's' ?..probably an inside joke referring to their PED habits.....

 

[eleven]

well, that's what we're about to find out, isn't it.

Indeed.

in both cases, the correct answer is "We don't know" and an opinion either way is simply conjecture.

<although, to be fair, I have my doubts about us being "about to find out".>

 

[VeloCity]

Indeed.

in both cases, the correct answer is "We don't know" and an opinion either way is simply conjecture.

<although, to be fair, I have my doubts about us being "about to find out".>

Yes, but this is a cycling forum, where opinions, conjectures, and the like are expressed, shared, discussed, ridiculed, etc.