Experts were lol wrong.Not what he did in Tokyo. Just saying. It was commented on at the time, not just here, but by the "experts".
What happened in Tokyo was everyone started out too hard because they underestimated the conditions, and Roglic was the only one who did the 2nd lap about as fast as the first lap, while everyone else slowed down by around a minute or more.
Roglic wasn't even the fastest on the T1 over the first climb despite being by far the best punchy climber in that TT. Clearly holding back.