World Championship 2025: Men’s ITT, September 21

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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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AlpRaid said:
Not what he did in Tokyo. Just saying. It was commented on at the time, not just here, but by the "experts".
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Experts were lol wrong.

What happened in Tokyo was everyone started out too hard because they underestimated the conditions, and Roglic was the only one who did the 2nd lap about as fast as the first lap, while everyone else slowed down by around a minute or more.

Roglic wasn't even the fastest on the T1 over the first climb despite being by far the best punchy climber in that TT. Clearly holding back.
 
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AlpRaid

AlpRaid

May 9, 2025
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Red Rick said:
Experts were lol wrong.

What happened in Tokyo was everyone started out too hard because they underestimated the conditions, and Roglic was the only one who did the 2nd lap about as fast as the first lap, while everyone else slowed down by around a minute or more.
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hmm. I guess you then are the only expert. ;-)

there were many, many images of him catching a rider and dropping them on the climb and then that rider passing him on the descent.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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AlpRaid said:
hmm. I guess you then are the only expert. ;-)

there were many, many images of him catching a rider and dropping them on the climb and then that rider passing him on the descent.
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That was just weird stuff and nobody really knows what happened there, but the fact is he kept taking more time every split in the 2nd lap.
 
B

broppo

Jul 14, 2016
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So this tt is nothing like the tt in the tdf where Pog destroyed Evenepoel? I am kind of confused
 
AlpRaid

AlpRaid

May 9, 2025
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broppo said:
So this tt is nothing like the tt in the tdf where Pog destroyed Evenepoel? I am kind of confused
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no it's literally identical. it's almost exclusively up an 8% mountain, and Remco no doubt is suffering again from lack of prep, lack of recuperation leading to exhaustion, and a broken rib. In fact, I am sure he will abandon the ITT the very next day...

oh wait...
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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broppo said:
So this tt is nothing like the tt in the tdf where Pog destroyed Evenepoel? I am kind of confused
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This is a hilly TT so somewhere between classical flat/rolling TT and a mountain TT (probably closer to the former). That Tour TT was basically an uphill battle i.e. a good climber smokes a good TT-ist any day on that course. Remco climbed badly at that time and withdrew the day later. His TT skills meant almost nothing on that course.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Krzysztof_O said:
This is a hilly TT so somewhere between classical flat/rolling TT and a mountain TT (probably closer to the former). That Tour TT was basically an uphill battle i.e. a good climber smokes a good TT-ist any day on that course. Remco climbed badly at that time and withdrew the day later. His TT skills meant almost nothing on that course.
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Maybe he means Nice?
 
Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Berniece said:
Maybe he means Nice?
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Ah maybe, I thought Peyreguades. Nice was more similar to this surely but probably more difficult and at the end of a 3-week GT. Pogacar was also gaining time on difficult descents: he knows them by heart.
 
Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Odds for the TT and the RR:

m.nicerodds.co.uk

Road World Championships odds | Nicer Odds

Odds comparisons at Road World Championships 2025.
m.nicerodds.co.uk m.nicerodds.co.uk

Pogacar #1 favourite in the TT but closely followed by Evenepoel. Vine also has really short odds. The rest is very far behind.

In the RR Pogacar is a ridiculously strong #1 favorite (1.2). Guys like Evenepoel, Del Toro, Pidcock and others are miles behind.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Krzysztof_O said:
Odds for the TT and the RR:

m.nicerodds.co.uk

Road World Championships odds | Nicer Odds

Odds comparisons at Road World Championships 2025.
m.nicerodds.co.uk m.nicerodds.co.uk

Pogacar #1 favourite in the TT but closely followed by Evenepoel. Vine also has really short odds. The rest is very far behind.

In the RR Pogacar is a ridiculously strong #1 favorite (1.2). Guys like Evenepoel, Del Toro, Pidcock and others are miles behind.
Click to expand...
The sweet smell of arbitrage.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Krzysztof_O said:
Ah maybe, I thought Peyreguades. Nice was more similar to this surely but probably more difficult and at the end of a 3-week GT. Pogacar was also gaining time on difficult descents: he knows them by heart.
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Yeah, when you look at the ITT in Nice I would expect it to be close on Sunday in Rwanda. Evenepoel lost around 50s on the downhill sections in Nice. As you said it was at the end of a GT where Pogacar was just fresher. And Nice was just a more difficult course in general.

I expect both riders to be within 10-20s of each other at the finish. No clue who will win.
 
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KenFiamingo

KenFiamingo

Dec 22, 2019
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Berniece said:
Maybe he means Nice?
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Yeah but even the one at Nice is not fully comparable with this years WCITT:
  • Nice had 720m vert over 33km; Kigali has 758m over 40km
  • Nice had a 8.2km long climb at 5.7% and a steep 1,6km at 8.8%. Kigali has more climbs but they are more shallow.
  • The downhill sections in Nice were really technical.
Kigali definitely suits Remco a lot better than Nice.
 
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C

Cycling111

Apr 13, 2025
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AlpRaid said:
no it's literally identical. it's almost exclusively up an 8% mountain, and Remco no doubt is suffering again from lack of prep, lack of recuperation leading to exhaustion, and a broken rib. In fact, I am sure he will abandon the ITT the very next day...

oh wait...
Click to expand...
Is the broken rib story true? With a broken rib, he won a stage and finished third for a week. Almeida couldn't even continue for a day.

Everything you question and this is not :rolleyes:
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Krzysztof_O said:
This is a hilly TT so somewhere between classical flat/rolling TT and a mountain TT (probably closer to the former). That Tour TT was basically an uphill battle i.e. a good climber smokes a good TT-ist any day on that course. Remco climbed badly at that time and withdrew the day later. His TT skills meant almost nothing on that course.
Click to expand...
Best matches for this TT are probably the Tokyo TT, the 2021 Vuelta ITT, and the old Giro wine trials of a few years ago that they stopped doing.

Tokyo fits the best by far, and Roglic beating the true specialists by over a minute is very telling.
 
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