World Championship team qualifying system

[Zinoviev Letter]

it's all wrong though

i meant to ask you how you arrived at four riders from Ireland. Any mention on local news sources has seemed to indicate three rather than four, but those sources are not, of course, infallible.

 

[MatParker117]

Can't be true. Denmark isn't even on that list.

Typos are a *****.

 

[search]

i meant to ask you how you arrived at four riders from Ireland. Any mention on local news sources has seemed to indicate three rather than four, but those sources are not, of course, infallible.

I have linked it above to that list, we have tried to understand the rules on velorooms. the options to includes tables and statistics on here on cn are a bit limited, so it's propably easier if you have a look at that thread I linked there, but I can try to give a short breakdown of the rules...

the current world tour ranking is:

1 SPAIN 1282
2 COLOMBIA 1001
3 GREAT BRITAIN 970
4 ITALY 737
5 NETHERLANDS 651
6 AUSTRALIA 607
7 FRANCE 532
8 POLAND 439
9 SWITZERLAND 438
10 SLOVAKIA 419
11 BELGIUM 412
12 UNITED STATES 402
13 CZECH REPUBLIC 348
14 IRELAND 317
15 SLOVENIA 278
16 GERMANY 259
17 PORTUGAL 250
18 DENMARK 166
19 NORWAY 153
20 ESTONIA 84

according to this rule:

1. The 10 first countries in UCI WorldTour classification by nation on 15 August 2013:

each country may enter 14 riders, with 9 to start. However, a nation with fewer than 9 riders classified in the individual UCI WorldTour ranking on 15 August 2013 shall start the number of riders that are classified. A nation with fewer than 6 riders classified in the UCI WorldTour ranking will, nonetheless, start 6 riders (* and **)

* A national federation ranked in the top ten on the UCI WorldTour ranking that does not achieve its athlete quota maximum because of the number of riders ranked on the individual UCI WorldTour ranking can complete its athlete quota thanks to the places it can receive on its respective continental circuit – the UCI Africa Tour, UCI America Tour, UCI Asia Tour, UCI Europe Tour and the UCI Oceania Tour - but must not, however, exceed the athlete quota of 14 riders with 9 to start obtained in the UCI WorldTour.

** The places of the nations which have been qualified by the UCI WorldTour calendar but are not allocated in regards of the last disposition, will be reallocated to the nations from the 11th rank of the UCI WorldTour calendar, with one supplementary place allocated by nation.

the Top 10 can have 9 riders, but only if either 9 riders of that country scored points in the world tour (rule 1) or they get the remaining number of riders due to their continental ranking (rule *).

Colombia, Great Britain, Poland, Switzerland and Slovakia are Top 10 but do not have enough riders scoring WT points. Colombia gets 6 from being 1st in american ranking, Switzerland and Poland are Top 14 in european ranking, so they get 3 spots. Slovakia and GB don't get any more. So we have:

SPAIN 9
COLOMBIA 9 (4 WT riders + 6 from cont. ranking -> maximum: 9)
GREAT BRITAIN 8 (only 8 riders scoring wt points)
ITALY 9
NETHERLANDS 9
AUSTRALIA 9
FRANCE 9
POLAND 6 (3 riders scoring WT points + 3 from cont. ranking)
SWITZERLAND 8 (5 riders scoring WT points + 3 from cont. ranking)
SLOVAKIA 6 (2 riders scoring WT points -> filled up to minimum)

so 8 spots are unused.

according to rule

7. Each nation in the UCI WorldTour classification which has not otherwise qualified but has:

i) a rider among the first 100 in the individual classification of the UCI WorldTour classification on 15 August 2013 : each nation may enter 5 riders, with 3 to start

Ireland would get 3 spots because of Dan Maritn being 10th in individual WT ranking

but because of rule **

** The places of the nations which have been qualified by the UCI WorldTour calendar but are not allocated in regards of the last disposition, will be reallocated to the nations from the 11th rank of the UCI WorldTour calendar, with one supplementary place allocated by nation.

the nations on place 11 to 18 in WT ranking by nation get one of those 8 unused spots = 3+1 for Ireland

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Bloody hell. No wonder everyone is confused. Thanks very much for taking the time to have a go at explaining the inexplicable. Did the UCI get Kafka to design that system as some kind of metaphor?

 

[Escarabajo]

Thanks search for the information. It is quite complicated.

I am so happy that Colombia finally gets 9 riders. I can't believe that we go as one of the favorites. If we win it would be the first World championship for Colombia in road racing.

 

[gospina]

Colombia strategy?

going off topic a bit, but specifically in this year's race, I see four individual favorites and one team with plenty of power but no clear leader.
Froome is top favorite, Nibali will depend on the vuelta and a good classic rider will also be a threat, Cancellara and Sagan. Colombia has plenty of options, but will have to control the race, same with Spain.
Now, you cannot beat Froome and/or Nibali is you wait for a final attack. I know Nairo, Carlos and Sergio have that last 2km punch, but Froome and Nibali have it as well. You also cannot let Sagan or Cancellara attack from far.
What is Colombia to do? my take is do what they do in the Vuelta a Colombia & Clasico RCN races in Colombia...attack like crazy. In those races, there is 5, 6 sometimes 7 chase groups. Very small peloton. With no radios allowed in the worlds, it will be a perfect strategy. Duarte & atapuma can be on the break. I hope they pick Acevedo, he has shown a lot of potential on his own with no team. He can also be on the break. Force Spain, Italy, etc... to chase those guys down. Switzerland and Slovania will hopefully lose guys (and Great Britain too). When it gets to the last climb, attack after attack is the only way to beat Froome & Nibali. Send Carlos first, ride wheels. If they catch him, Sergio attacks. Two huge threats, others HAVE to chase. Save Rigo for 2km out attacks, Nairo for 1km attacks. Nairo doesn't have to win, he can be the smoking gun here.
What is really a shame is that there is a better chance for a Colombian to have the World champion jersey at a WT event than a Colombian having the national champion jersey at a WT event, but that's a different discussion

 

[Afrank]

going off topic a bit, but specifically in this year's race, I see four individual favorites and one team with plenty of power but no clear leader.
Froome is top favorite, Nibali will depend on the vuelta and a good classic rider will also be a threat, Cancellara and Sagan. Colombia has plenty of options, but will have to control the race, same with Spain.
Now, you cannot beat Froome and/or Nibali is you wait for a final attack. I know Nairo, Carlos and Sergio have that last 2km punch, but Froome and Nibali have it as well. You also cannot let Sagan or Cancellara attack from far.
What is Colombia to do? my take is do what they do in the Vuelta a Colombia & Clasico RCN races in Colombia...attack like crazy. In those races, there is 5, 6 sometimes 7 chase groups. Very small peloton. With no radios allowed in the worlds, it will be a perfect strategy. Duarte & atapuma can be on the break. I hope they pick Acevedo, he has shown a lot of potential on his own with no team. He can also be on the break. Force Spain, Italy, etc... to chase those guys down. Switzerland and Slovania will hopefully lose guys (and Great Britain too). When it gets to the last climb, attack after attack is the only way to beat Froome & Nibali. Send Carlos first, ride wheels. If they catch him, Sergio attacks. Two huge threats, others HAVE to chase. Save Rigo for 2km out attacks, Nairo for 1km attacks. Nairo doesn't have to win, he can be the smoking gun here.
What is really a shame is that there is a better chance for a Colombian to have the World champion jersey at a WT event than a Colombian having the national champion jersey at a WT event, but that's a different discussion

Froome is most definitely not the top favorite, he's more an outside bet considering his history in important one days. Don't think Sagan will do much either, iirc he has said the course is too hard for him.

Agree with your main assessment of what their tactics should be though. Attacking like crazy could work well for them I think. Would be good to send their lower level guys in breaks or on earlier attacks and have the higher level guys (like Henao, Quintana, Betancur) stay with the favorites group and mark them. Then if the break is brought back and it comes down to the main favorites take turns attacking them.

 

[Escarabajo]

By any means Froome is not the top favorite.

 

[Dedelou]

By any means Froome is not the top favorite.

much more should be said in this thread about not only the selection process but the atypical tactics that characterizes the WC road race. Unlike the classics where the teams goals are consistent with their year long objective, the win at the world's is achieved or countered with the support of riders who are not necessarily the winner's teammate the rest of the year. Strange politics come to play and obviously unwritten but powerful secret alliances. The host country always has an advantage but we know that such status can also become a target for the host team.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'd have thought that the guys who are at the sharp end of the Ardennes classics and Lombardia would be the main favourites. Is there any reason why they wouldn't be (bar in a few cases being handicapped by a weak team)?

 

[burning]

I have a strange feeling that Valverde will be the winner if he races on his favorite country

 

[barmaher]

Guys with one-day pedigree who would have designed a course like this:

Rodriguez
Valverde
Dan Martin
Gilbert
Betancur
Henao
Uran
Nibali
Evans
Sanchez x 2

Then you have the guys like Sagan, Cancellara, Gerrans, Albasini who may fancy their chances.

And after all of that, I would consider riders like Froome. A guy with a chance, but I would say he is not in the Top 20 favourites. Certainly not in the Top 10.

 

[Gloin22]

Gilbert? Doubtful, too much climbing for him. Other than that, all those names you mentioned should feature.

Although Evans will likely be fatigued from doing two GT's and wont feature as much as well.

 

[Pentacycle]

Don't forget Scarponi, Costa & Quintana. Of the others you named LLS, Gerro and Albasini aren't exactly known for handling tough circuits like these over such a distance.

 

[gospina]

My point with Froome is that he has stated he is targeting the worlds. He has the ability to go at threshold for longer than most riders. He can climb very well and has a good team. The main concern for him will be the LONG distance for a one-day race. Froome has to be top 10 IMO. Cancellara as well. Sagan is also targeting it and has shown in the past that he can also do very good with 2 or 3 climb events.
My favorite is still a Colombian. Looking at last year's world championship, Uran and Henao were right up with Gilbert until the final attack. Same was Purito, who is my dark horse. Duarte faded a bit towards the end, but he was also up there.
After the worlds at Lombardia, the final classic, you got a very good look at who was still in form and who could handle a long, long one day stage with a summit finish, like this year's world. Purito won. There was a group of about 20 at the end. EVERYONE ONE OF THE COLOMBIAN NATIONAL TEAM WAS IN THOSE 20. THEY ALL PLACED on the top 25 at the end.
Purito (ESP) 1st.
1st chase group, where purito jumped from: 9sec back
Sanchez (SPAIN)
URAN (COL)
Santambrogio (ITA)
HENAO (COL)
Hesjedal (CAN)
Mollerma (NED)
Zaugg (SUI)
Contador (ESP)
Kessiakoff (SW)
QUINTANA (COL)
Pelizotti (ITA)
2nd group contained the rest of the colombian team: 1 25 back
Martin (IRL)
Van Avermaet (BEL)
Peraud (FRA)
Rabottini (ITA)
Di Luca (ITA)
DUARTE (COL)
Marczynski (POL)
RUBIANO (COL)
BETANCUR (COL)
ANACONA (COL)
Nibali (ITA)
Verdugo (ESP)
Basso (ITA)

This year, they will have 9 riders, adding hopefully Acevedo and Atapuma. All have characteristics that are better for this year's worlds.

 

[barmaher]

Agreed with the Gloin and Pentacycle comments, although I have a sneaky Gilbert feeling.

I just wanted to show the type of riders that would be favoured over Froome given his peidgree and the parcours, rather than coming up with a comprehensive list of who is hot and who is not.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out Albasini, by the way. But this all sounds like stuff for a different thread.

 

[gospina]

We can also look at spain and italy from Lombardia:
Rodriguez - contender
Sanchez - not a good year for him
Santambrogio (ITA) - EPO out
Hesjedal (CAN) - really bad year
Contador (ESP) - contender
Pelizotti (ITA) - really bad year
Rabottini (ITA) - nothing this year
Di Luca (ITA) - EPO out
Nibali (ITA) - contender
Verdugo (ESP) - nothing really this eyar
Basso (ITA) - depends on Vuelta

 

[barmaher]

Who is going to be good in Froome's team? And by good, I mean in comparison to the lieutenants that J-Rod, Valverde, Nibali and even Evans will have.

 

[MatParker117]

Who is going to be good in Froome's team? And by good, I mean in comparison to the lieutenants that J-Rod, Valverde, Nibali and even Evans will have.

Likely GB Team:
Froome
Wiggins
Cummings
Millar
Edmonson
Stannard
Thomas
Kennaugh

 

[Escarabajo]

...

This year, they will have 9 riders, adding hopefully Acevedo and Atapuma. All have characteristics that are better for this year's worlds.

I think Serpa would be selected among those 9 riders. Maybe Acevedo would be left out. Depends on how he does in Colorado maybe.

 

[barmaher]

I don't think that is a great team for this course. Geraint if he is fit could be a good ally. Who knows with Wiggins, and Kennaugh has really improved a lot, but compared to the Colombians, the French, the Spanish, it is not very good.

 

[Parrulo]

This point system is a mess.

In Portugal's case, usually, most of the continental points are earned during the Volta which is going on right now, but since the date the points are counted is now before the end of the Volta those points no longer count, which reduces the number of riders portugal sends by roughly half.

So Costa this year, due to a technicality instead of having 5 riders supporting him, will only have 2

 

[gospina]

That sucks for Costa!. If Nibali podiums at the Vuelta, he will jump to favorite. To bring the discussion back to the thread, what is the US team looking like?

 

[search]

In Portugal's case, usually, most of the continental points are earned during the Volta which is going on right now, but since the date the points are counted is now before the end of the Volta those points no longer count, which reduces the number of riders portugal sends by roughly half.

I seriously doubt they would score 600 points in the Volta

that would be like top 3 in gc + all portugese top 3 in every stage

edit: based on the results so far it's not even possible to score 600 points anymore, even if they are top 6 in every stage + Top 10 in GC. So it doesn't make a difference at all

 

[Parrulo]

I seriously doubt they would score 600 points in the Volta

that would be like top 3 in gc + all portugese top 3 in every stage

I gave this year as an example but i am talking in general., as this has happened a few times before. Also it has gotten worse with the volta dropping from 2.HC to 2.2 but that is another story.

Overall the system is an absolute mess as countries that will bring absolutely nothing to the race get to take more riders than countries that could actually do something.