World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Climbing]

I thought it was 8 as well, but apparently it's 7?

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

I thought it was 8 as well, but apparently it's 7?

It's 8 for 1st to 10th nation ranked, 6 for 11th to 20th, 4 for 21st to 30th and 1 fo 31st to 50th.
http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/News/18/54/12/CMR-Syst%C3%A8medequalification2018-ENG_English.PDF

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Depending on form, you'd expect at least six of these (they have 8 spots, right?):

Julian Alaphilippe
Romain Bardet
Warren Barguil
Lilian Calmejane
Tony Gallopin
Pierre Latour
Thibaut Pinot
Alexis Vuillermoz

Frightening team.

Seven of them have already achieved a top-10 in Il Lombardia. Four of them have already achieved a top-5 in that particular race.

Now this potential team is faced with a problem: how do you win (or even podium, that would be enough for us) when you desperately fail to win a WorldTour event year after year.

 

[Climbing]

Re: Re:

I thought it was 8 as well, but apparently it's 7?

It's 8 for 1st to 10th nation ranked, 6 for 11th to 20th, 4 for 21st to 30th and 1 fo 31st to 50th.
http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/News/18/54/12/CMR-Syst%C3%A8medequalification2018-ENG_English.PDF

Yeah I linked that myself some pages ago, but somebody said it wasn't correct.
Can make quite a bit of a difference.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

Obviously Sagan can't win because nobody has ever won 4 time in a row, so that can't happen.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

So what part of "based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race" you don't understand?

What part of that is illogical? Please tell me!

Is it because in your option history should never be taken into consideration when talking the "likeliness" of future results? Isn't that what the bookies do?

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

So what part of "based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race" you don't understand?

What part of that is illogical? Please tell me!

Is it because in your option history should never be taken into consideration when talking the "likeliness" of future results? Isn't that what the bookies do?

This is silly. Of course it's illogical. So do you think the bookies are going to rate Slovakia's chances higher at Worlds this year than Colombia's? What about Germany? USA? Australia? All have a better Worlds record.

Of course they won't because history is only one piece you look at and when it comes to Worlds it's a very small piece because the parcours changes completely every year. Also, a nations' talent changes over the years and as we know Colombia has great talent right now, particularly for a course like Innsbruck.

 

[tobydawq]

Slovakia had never won a medal ar the Worlds three years ago. Guess who were the bookies' favourite for Richmond, Doha and Bergen.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I hardly call that frightening.

I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

So what part of "based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race" you don't understand?

What part of that is illogical? Please tell me!

Is it because in your option history should never be taken into consideration when talking the "likeliness" of future results? Isn't that what the bookies do?

No it's just that this route is one of the hardest worlds routes ever and that Colombian cycling has taken a major step forward in the last decade. It doesn't need a rocket scientist to figure out that results on routes like in Doha don't tell you a lot about this race. If you don't think all the Colombian climbers could cause carnage on this route because of history, I can't help you

 

[Netserk]

So he managed to hook 4. Not bad.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

3101#p2243101]Gigs_98[/url]"]
I agree, if Colombia really wanted to they could pretty much drop half of the french team in the first lap. Ofc not a bad team either, but there will surely be stronger ones.

Colombia?

The same Colombia that has ZERO medals from the WC?
Do you realize they never even managed to get on the podium?
Is that the Colombia you are talking about?

Well, perhaps they can drop some riders on the first climb, but other than that, based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race.

Edit: anyway, there is a better chance of Sagan winning this race than anybody from Colombia

Can logic get any less flawless?

So what part of "based on history, it is very unlikely they will win or even podium this race" you don't understand?

What part of that is illogical? Please tell me!

Is it because in your option history should never be taken into consideration when talking the "likeliness" of future results? Isn't that what the bookies do?

No it's just that this route is one of the hardest worlds routes ever and that Colombian cycling has taken a major step forward in the last decade. It doesn't need a rocket scientist to figure out that results on routes like in Doha don't tell you a lot about this race. If you don't think all the Colombian climbers could cause carnage on this route because of history, I can't help you

[/quote]

So you are saying that all the previous WC courses were pretty much flat and that is the reason why no Colombian ever podium at WC?

So finally now there is a proper course and the Combians will sweep the podium :lol:

Hmmm, every time I come here I learn something new.

To give you a credit, yes, the Colombians took a small step forward ... so did all the other countries.

Bottom line, no Colombian will win this race!

That is my prediction and probably the best bet anybody can make

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I thought it was 8 as well, but apparently it's 7?

It's 8 for 1st to 10th nation ranked, 6 for 11th to 20th, 4 for 21st to 30th and 1 fo 31st to 50th.
http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/News/18/54/12/CMR-Syst%C3%A8medequalification2018-ENG_English.PDF

Yeah I linked that myself some pages ago, but somebody said it wasn't correct.
Can make quite a bit of a difference.

Are you referring to this post?
viewtopic.php?p=2237847#p2237847

The chapter cited in that post is the wrong one, it's for XCO and DHI not RR.

 

[Koronin]

Colombia could get a podium however, they need to go with one leader and maybe one plan B. However, if it's a free for all and riders refusing to work for each other, again they will be extremely lucky if they get a podium.
I actually agree with Jancouver that Sagan has as good of a shot at winning the worlds this year as a rider from Colombia has, and that isn't a very good chance.

 

[Durden93]

Re:

Colombia could get a podium however, they need to go with one leader and maybe one plan B. However, if it's a free for all and riders refusing to work for each other, again they will be extremely lucky if they get a podium.
I actually agree with Jancouver that Sagan has as good of a shot at winning the worlds this year as a rider from Colombia has, and that isn't a very good chance.

I think Columbia has as strong a chance as any team aside from Spain and Italy. They can create chaos from the start if they’d like. Put Pantano or Atapuma in the break and then try and go long with Quintana. Then you have Uran and Chaves to play for the finale. Yeah, they don’t have great sprinters but after 7 hours and 5000m of climbing I think the differences get neutralized a bit.

As for history, I don’t think Colombia’s lack of previous WC success really factors in here. Since 1995 there have only really been 3 mountainous WCs and by the 90s Colombia lacked the star power it did in the 80s for reasons which I shall not mention.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Colombia could get a podium however, they need to go with one leader and maybe one plan B. However, if it's a free for all and riders refusing to work for each other, again they will be extremely lucky if they get a podium.
I actually agree with Jancouver that Sagan has as good of a shot at winning the worlds this year as a rider from Colombia has, and that isn't a very good chance.

I think Columbia has as strong a chance as any team aside from Spain and Italy. They can create chaos from the start if they’d like. Put Pantano or Atapuma in the break and then try and go long with Quintana. Then you have Uran and Chaves to play for the finale. Yeah, they don’t have great sprinters but after 7 hours and 5000m of climbing I think the differences get neutralized a bit.

As for history, I don’t think Colombia’s lack of previous WC success really factors in here. Since 1995 there have only really been 3 mountainous WCs and by the 90s Colombia lacked the star power it did in the 80s for reasons which I shall not mention.

Thus they had better hope they aren't coming to the finish with Nibali and Valverde. Valverde will still have his sprint no matter how many KMs they've just raced and Nibali has an OK sprint, although nothing compared to Valverde's.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

Colombia could get a podium however, they need to go with one leader and maybe one plan B. However, if it's a free for all and riders refusing to work for each other, again they will be extremely lucky if they get a podium.
I actually agree with Jancouver that Sagan has as good of a shot at winning the worlds this year as a rider from Colombia has, and that isn't a very good chance.

I think Columbia has as strong a chance as any team aside from Spain and Italy. They can create chaos from the start if they’d like. Put Pantano or Atapuma in the break and then try and go long with Quintana. Then you have Uran and Chaves to play for the finale. Yeah, they don’t have great sprinters but after 7 hours and 5000m of climbing I think the differences get neutralized a bit.

As for history, I don’t think Colombia’s lack of previous WC success really factors in here. Since 1995 there have only really been 3 mountainous WCs and by the 90s Colombia lacked the star power it did in the 80s for reasons which I shall not mention.

Thus they had better hope they aren't coming to the finish with Nibali and Valverde. Valverde will still have his sprint no matter how many KMs they've just raced and Nibali has an OK sprint, although nothing compared to Valverde's.

I would have to think that either Uran or Chaves could contest a sprint with Nibali quite well.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

ORF reports, that there are still 3,2 Mio. Euros missing to finance this event. Hello Qatar...

http://www.tt.com/sport/sportreport/14105466-91/die-rad-wm-in-innsbrucktirol-eine-herkulesaufgabe.csp

Here are some numbers. They are reporting, that they will close two major deals soon.

It's quite interesting. I found an article for the 2011 World Championships with Hamburg thinking about becoming a candidate. That article stated, that the WRR would cost 6 Mio. Euros. Now we are at almost 13 Mio. Bergen was at 20 Mio. Euros and they failed hard to bring that money to the table. Vicenza 2020 is out for money reasons. Does anybody have an idea, why these events have become so expensive so fast? Security issues maybe? Or has UCI gone into FIFA mode?

 

[Jancouver]

Tactically, the only Colombian that has any chance is Sergio Henao. Tactics are important and perhaps even the reason why they never got on the podium.

... too many chiefs not enough indians

 

[Red Rick]

ORF reports, that there are still 3,2 Mio. Euros missing to finance this event. Hello Qatar...

http://www.tt.com/sport/sportreport/14105466-91/die-rad-wm-in-innsbrucktirol-eine-herkulesaufgabe.csp

Here are some numbers. They are reporting, that they will close two major deals soon.

It's quite interesting. I found an article for the 2011 World Championships with Hamburg thinking about becoming a candidate. That article stated, that the WRR would cost 6 Mio. Euros. Now we are at almost 13 Mio. Bergen was at 20 Mio. Euros and they failed hard to bring that money to the table. Vicenza 2020 is out for money reasons. Does anybody have an idea, why these events have become so expensive so fast? Security issues maybe? Or has UCI gone into FIFA mode?

The worlds need to change in terms of financing and monetezation. That much is clear.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Tactically, the only Colombian that has any chance is Sergio Henao. Tactics are important and perhaps even the reason why they never got on the podium.

... too many chiefs not enough indians

That could also become a problem fro France.
Ala will be the leader, but Bardet, Barguil and Pinot will all have their own ambitions.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Tactically, the only Colombian that has any chance is Sergio Henao. Tactics are important and perhaps even the reason why they never got on the podium.

... too many chiefs not enough indians

That could also become a problem fro France.
Ala will be the leader, but Bardet, Barguil and Pinot will all have their own ambitions.

It's gonna be a weird, weird worlds cause it's so tough nobody really has an idea what will happen.

I don't even know which race to compare it to.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I reckon Spain also will have a pretty good team for the Worlds. They have produced some very good riders lately who have developed better than some might have expected - many of them are not spectacular, but can play the role of great domestiques for Valverde and possibly Landa who also can win: Bilbao, Cruz, Fraile, Soler, Mas, Ion, Gorka, Luis Leon, Verona, Rosón...

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I reckon Spain also will have a pretty good team for the Worlds. They have produced some very good riders lately who have developed better than some might have expected - many of them are not spectacular, but can play the role of great domestiques for Valverde and possibly Landa who also can win: Bilbao, Cruz, Fraile, Soler, Mas, Ion, Gorka, Luis Leon, Verona, Rosón...

Basically find out who's racing la Vuelta to find out who is in the running to make the team. The Spanish national coach doesn't like taking riders who didn't race la Vuelta. Although right now I think we can safely say Valverde and Luis Leon are on the team. The way Soler is riding I'd be surprised if he's not taken.