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Maaaaaaaarten

Maaaaaaaarten

Oct 23, 2011
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Re:

movingtarget said:
The Disastrous Decline of The European Center Left

http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=pMJKdIFVI6pghfX2HXfSzxRpdoyDWYNWjFhUL7LaccbDO3+v5W6IXx8M5yBLUwfwcsh7RzKJCPgf+qnPCnFU/iMxMhFbycBbzFYg85hTQdiqbGkflTxajSh+6YpVRsJcU89MGSzSAxlmqnYhVVp7NA==&campaign_id=129&instance_id=104154&segment_id=114093&user_id=12d98412e3bcc0522f6cfbf4c21c54e6&regi_id=42685115
Click to expand...

Speaking for the Netherlands, which is also mentioned in this article as an example, I think the Netherlands has simply become more right wing. Dissatisfaction concerning issues such as immigration and the EU play a big part in that. I think many of the remaining left wing voters felt they had to vote further left and progressive to compensate for the increasing right wing, conservative and nationalistic political tendencies. This led to a spectacular decline of the centre lef/labour/whatever party and they were supplanted by the green party as the biggest left wing party. Needless to say that the left wing voters are only hurting themselves, because the green party are a bunch of irrealistic and incompetent ideologues who will never get anything done (no offense to people who voted for them, I can definitely see good intentions there, but I'm very cynical about the party leadership), compared to the centre left party which actually managed to make compromises and form a coalition with right wing parties and had some real influence.

In a nutshell, issues such as the EU and immigration and economic crises cause increased polarization. The centre left parties have failed to deal with it adequately and fall prey to some further left and populistic gimmicks like Macron or green parties or stuff like that. Centre right parties on the other hand have managed to keep the anti-immigration parties and nationalistic parties, which spawn from the same polarization, abay for now, by becoming more right wing, conservative and nationalistic themselves. That's my take on it at least.
 
M

movingtarget

Aug 5, 2009
15,733
8,116
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Re: Re:

Maaaaaaaarten said:
movingtarget said:
The Disastrous Decline of The European Center Left

http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=pMJKdIFVI6pghfX2HXfSzxRpdoyDWYNWjFhUL7LaccbDO3+v5W6IXx8M5yBLUwfwcsh7RzKJCPgf+qnPCnFU/iMxMhFbycBbzFYg85hTQdiqbGkflTxajSh+6YpVRsJcU89MGSzSAxlmqnYhVVp7NA==&campaign_id=129&instance_id=104154&segment_id=114093&user_id=12d98412e3bcc0522f6cfbf4c21c54e6&regi_id=42685115
Click to expand...

Speaking for the Netherlands, which is also mentioned in this article as an example, I think the Netherlands has simply become more right wing. Dissatisfaction concerning issues such as immigration and the EU play a big part in that. I think many of the remaining left wing voters felt they had to vote further left and progressive to compensate for the increasing right wing, conservative and nationalistic political tendencies. This led to a spectacular decline of the centre lef/labour/whatever party and they were supplanted by the green party as the biggest left wing party. Needless to say that the left wing voters are only hurting themselves, because the green party are a bunch of irrealistic and incompetent ideologues who will never get anything done (no offense to people who voted for them, I can definitely see good intentions there, but I'm very cynical about the party leadership), compared to the centre left party which actually managed to make compromises and form a coalition with right wing parties and had some real influence.

In a nutshell, issues such as the EU and immigration and economic crises cause increased polarization. The centre left parties have failed to deal with it adequately and fall prey to some further left and populistic gimmicks like Macron or green parties or stuff like that. Centre right parties on the other hand have managed to keep the anti-immigration parties and nationalistic parties, which spawn from the same polarization, abay for now, by becoming more right wing, conservative and nationalistic themselves. That's my take on it at least.
Click to expand...

Yes it seems that the Left is suffering an identity crisis in many countries not only within the EU.
 
May0maniac

May0maniac

Jun 30, 2014
7,060
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I have to agree that the downfall of the center left started in the Schröder/Blair years, their pro neoliberalism stance alienated the working class and nowadays the classic center left working class voters often end up voting for the new right because they feel abandoned by the left establishment.
The green parties don't really care for the working class, they often seem to almost despise them and don't offer any alternatives to neoliberalism, they have become the to go party for the progressive upper middle class that often sees themself als the intellectual elite, they are bourgeois to the core.
 
E

Echoes

Oct 8, 2009
3,391
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Methinks that the Left's decline should be relativised. I'd rather agree with the phrase: "identity crisis".

With regards to socio-economy, it migt look like they are but regarding all cultural matters, their reforms are still persistent and even hard to defy, reforms such as: gay marriage, drug legalisation, etc. Even with regards to education, the focus is now still on secularism, mathematics more than languages and the pupils have more and more rights, the teachers less and less authority. I'm leaving aside the migration issue which is quite complicated.

At this point, many would object to me that there's a clear distinction between cultural liberalism, which is reputedly left-wing and economic liberalism, which is reputedly right-wing. Yet the first advocates of liberalism - 18th Enlightenment philosophers - did not distinguish between the two and they were considered Left-wing in their era. So cultural and economic liberalism stem from the same matrix: the Enlightenment. So the Left was the ideology of the rising bourgeois merchant class against the old landowning ruling (aristocrating) class.

It's only by the late 19th century, when the old landowning class declined because heavy taxation (such as inheritance tax, e.g.) and especially for France, the impact of the Dreyfus Affair, plus the 1945 "Cleansing" (massive execution of the last representatives of the Old Right, on the ground that they were Nazi collaborationists, which can be true for some but not the majority of them), that they liberals started to fill in the vacuum that had been left by the old landowners, namely the Right-Wing, while the Socialist started to consider themselves Left-Wingers. 19th century socialists and working-class movements neither considered themselves Left-winger nor Right-wingers. So when I see that recent Left-wing parties whether in Europe or in North America, I'd say they are sort of back to their roots and start to think that the solution for our working class (which has sadly become a "workless class") could come from Right-wing circles. In times of insane globalisation, it's a good thing to look back on our traditions and our ancestral codes.
 
B

Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
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The secularism and equality (homosexuality as well as women) isn't hard to understand, as one is directly from the Marx's views on religion, and the other a natural progression from both 18th century philosophers and Marx, once again, and early 20th century labour movements. The importance of 'stem' is harder, but I guess is to do with the left's belief in science and technological advancement which stems from Marx rather than any previous anti-indrustial socialists. However, of late the left is championing artistic subjects much more than the right. But I disagree with the claim that 'socialists' and anti-capitalists started in right-wing circles, when the 'left' began from revolutionary factions in France, no? The right were conservative and have mostly remained so, which in my mind means they could not have supported those causes.

Anyway, that's an argument that is never-ending. But I think the demise of the left in Europe is a theory that is slightly overblown. I agree with the lack of identity and direction, but I wouldn't ever consider "third-way" politicians to be social democrats or centre left. They are radical centrists, with (right) libertarian leanings. It just happens they rose in left of centre parties. Merkel is a good counter argument to this, her economic policies are very similar to Blair (probably further left) but she is in a nominally centre right party. But as a christian democrat she is less socially reformist. In Scandi countries the left parties are still doing pretty well, even if the Norwegian labour party just had a poor election (still biggest party, but were hoping for much more a year ago). The governing social democrats in sweden are comfortably ahead in polls, and in denmark the left-wing block is ahead. Spain's left is (properly) split for the first time in a long time, which is why PP always win. Italy only adopted an actual third way politician with the unelected Renzi, even if the previous PMs weren't exactly Berlinguer. France has an extreme blairite president, which shows those ideas are still popular (or more popular than le pen).

Basically, the article a year or two ago would have been much more apt than now. The centre left is undergoing a mini resurgence (and I am talking old fashioned social democracy, not blairism). After all, Blair's platform in his landslide 1997 was Corbyn's this year, just without the renationalisation and raised taxes. The same extra money promises. Portugal has seen a massive resurgence of the left, and in the UK it was basically a resurrection from presumed dead. The lack of identity comes from the hard left having a lack of moderity and fresh ideas, and centrist wings being happy with status quo. Nobody willing to take ownership and give new, innoviative ideas.
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
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blutto said:
OCTOBER 4, 2017
Wheels and Deals: Trouble Brewing in the House of Saud
by PEPE ESCOBAR

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/10/04/wheels-and-deals-trouble-brewing-in-the-house-of-saud/

Cheers
Click to expand...
...and there is this to add to a mix

Russia, Saudi Arabia cement new friendship with king's visit
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-terror/russia-saudi-arabia-cement-new-friendship-with-kings-visit-idUSKBN1CA1QU

is vlad getting bought by the saudi petro$$ or the aging king is out-chessed ?

dont really know what to make of it, except to view it as verrry interesting.
 
M

Merckx index

Jul 27, 2010
5,121
884
19,680
Thinking about the unthinkable: the possible consequences of a N. Korean strike:

http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mzagurek100417/

History is replete with “rational actors” grossly miscalculating, especially in crisis situations. It is possible that another North Korean nuclear test—especially if detonated in air or under water—an ICBM test, or a missile test that has the payload impact area too close to US bases in Guam for example, might see Washington react with force. This could include such options as attempting to shoot down the test missiles or possibly attacking North Korea’s missile testing, nuclear related sites, missile deployment areas or the Kim Regime itself. The North Korean leadership might perceive such an attack as an effort to remove the Kim family from power and, as a result, could retaliate with nuclear weapons as a last gasp reaction before annihilation. Therefore, it is worth reviewing the consequences if the “unthinkable” happened.
Click to expand...

According to the calculations presented below, if the “unthinkable” happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries.
Click to expand...

Expert analysis suggests that the North has the capability to arm ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and has a baseline nuclear arsenal estimated at around 20 to 25 nuclear warheads with yields in the 15-25 kiloton range [5]. The September 3 nuclear test was likely a thermonuclear device with estimated yields between 108 and 250 kilotons [3], suggesting that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal could eventually be upgraded to consist of larger yield thermonuclear weapons.
Click to expand...
 
blutto

blutto

Jul 4, 2009
9,666
0
0
Merckx index said:
Thinking about the unthinkable: the possible consequences of a N. Korean strike:

http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mzagurek100417/

History is replete with “rational actors” grossly miscalculating, especially in crisis situations. It is possible that another North Korean nuclear test—especially if detonated in air or under water—an ICBM test, or a missile test that has the payload impact area too close to US bases in Guam for example, might see Washington react with force. This could include such options as attempting to shoot down the test missiles or possibly attacking North Korea’s missile testing, nuclear related sites, missile deployment areas or the Kim Regime itself. The North Korean leadership might perceive such an attack as an effort to remove the Kim family from power and, as a result, could retaliate with nuclear weapons as a last gasp reaction before annihilation. Therefore, it is worth reviewing the consequences if the “unthinkable” happened.
Click to expand...

According to the calculations presented below, if the “unthinkable” happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries.
Click to expand...

Expert analysis suggests that the North has the capability to arm ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and has a baseline nuclear arsenal estimated at around 20 to 25 nuclear warheads with yields in the 15-25 kiloton range [5]. The September 3 nuclear test was likely a thermonuclear device with estimated yields between 108 and 250 kilotons [3], suggesting that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal could eventually be upgraded to consist of larger yield thermonuclear weapons.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

....and Bush and Clinton could have solved this so easily....

Cheers
 
E

Echoes

Oct 8, 2009
3,391
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Strikes in public services, especially transport is terror. Fed up with it. The reforms by the EU commission (not the governments) are disgraceful but it's no reason to take the whole population as hostages. The right for strike should be preserved, protected and guaranteed in the private sector. Those usually have a good reason to protest. In the public sector you have a duty to serve the population, so no strike. They only think about their own personal comfort. They don't care about those who are willing to go to work and have no car. They do not care about the old ladies who need to do their shopping. The teachers don't care about their pupils. They only deserve contempt. :mad:
 
King Boonen

King Boonen

Jul 25, 2012
12,967
1,970
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Echoes said:
Strikes in public services, especially transport is terror. Fed up with it. The reforms by the EU commission (not the governments) are disgraceful but it's no reason to take the whole population as hostages. The right for strike should be preserved, protected and guaranteed in the private sector. Those usually have a good reason to protest. In the public sector you have a duty to serve the population, so no strike. They only think about their own personal comfort. They don't care about those who are willing to go to work and have no car. They do not care about the old ladies who need to do their shopping. The teachers don't care about their pupils. They only deserve contempt. :mad:
Click to expand...

Just because someone works in the public sector does not mean they should have to accept sub-standard pay or conditions. I'm sure the vast majority are well aware of the problems strikes cause, that's pretty much the point.
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
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...did not hear or read anything on the development in my west-based msm rss, but the new diplomatic conflict btwn the us and turkey was very much in the ctr of the turkish state media i saw (the trt and the a-news tv channels)

they smack the turkish 'instant and mirror' response to american suspension of visas...if i understood it correctly, it all started by the turkish arrest of some american diplomatic staff. the turks said, they did not have the diplomatic immunity. the us in an apparent response suspended visas to the turks traveling to america. which caused an immediate mirror retaliation from turkey.

i have not followed the substance of the latest spat and would be inclined to believe that erdogan (again) is waving around his little dijk, but what is noteworthy to me was the us public, clumsy and apparently punitive action instead of a discrete negotiations with a finicky yet a nato ally

either this administration did not believe the stick will meet a stick (which imo indicates a poor diplomatic acuity) or we dont know what else took place.... regardless, the us obsession with sanctions and punishments could backfiring...
 
B

Beech Mtn

Oct 6, 2009
5,270
2
0
Re:

python said:
...did not hear or read anything on the development in my west-based msm rss, but the new diplomatic conflict btwn the us and turkey was very much in the ctr of the turkish state media i saw (the trt and the a-news tv channels)

they smack the turkish 'instant and mirror' response to american suspension of visas...if i understood it correctly, it all started by the turkish arrest of some american diplomatic staff. the turks said, they did not have the diplomatic immunity. the us in an apparent response suspended visas to the turks traveling to america. which caused an immediate mirror retaliation from turkey.

i have not followed the substance of the latest spat and would be inclined to believe that erdogan (again) is waving around his little dijk, but what is noteworthy to me was the us public, clumsy and apparently punitive action instead of a discrete negotiations with a finicky yet a nato ally

either this administration did not believe the stick will meet a stick (which imo indicates a poor diplomatic acuity) or we dont know what else took place.... regardless, the us obsession with sanctions and punishments could backfiring...
Click to expand...

It was on Foxnews briefly
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
1
0
Re: Re:

Beech Mtn said:
python said:
.............

i have not followed the substance of the latest spat and would be inclined to believe that erdogan (again) is waving around his little dijk, but what is noteworthy to me was the us public, clumsy and apparently punitive action instead of a discrete negotiations with a finicky yet a nato ally

either this administration did not believe the stick will meet a stick (which imo indicates a poor diplomatic acuity) or we dont know what else took place.... regardless, the us obsession with sanctions and punishments could backfiring...
Click to expand...

It was on Foxnews briefly
Click to expand...
decided to look a bit deeper into the matter since i was uncomfortable with my own lack of info and/or a potentially incorrect or hasty conclusion. below are the 2 very informative links from a generally well informed source (yet slightly biased against erdogan).

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/erdogan-blames-us-ambassador-john-bass-tensions-turkey.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/turkey-us-suspend-visas-crisis-relations.html

in summary: my earlier supposition that a discrete way should have been tried by the us FIRST, does not appear practical as the differences are way too deep seated...what are they about ?

according to turkey, it is about the us sheltering the enablers of the regime change and spies.
according to the us, it is about the disruption of the us diplomatic activities.

regardless of who's story is closer to the truth, i'm thinking of a parallel...suppose, the us suspected AND ARRESTED an american-passport employee of a foreign embassy for an alleged spying. would anyone produce as much as a peep ? hardly. it's normal in counter-intelligence as long as he/she did not carry a diplomatic immunity.

what happened is essentially a reverse of the above scenario, except it was turkey arresting their nationals suspected of spying...the sharp american reaction in my judgement MAY signify 2 things: a) indeed the arrested may have been spies; b) the us indignation might be related to 'the others cant do it to the bigs-trong USA'.

at the same time, i suspect erdogan of a political adventurism (again) in the hope of raising his odds of extraditing gulen. the man he accused of masterminding the plot. interesting where will this go, as i see on the one side an ambitious ego centric gambler with a small member vs a political novice with a big member and even a bigger ego..
 
Robert5091

Robert5091

Mar 29, 2016
6,974
2
9,485
Australians with egg all over their faces -
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ralian-military-projects-20171011-gyz1hb.html

Commercially sensitive information on the $14 billion Joint Strike Fighter program, Australia's next fleet of spy planes and several of its naval warships have been stolen by hackers who breached a Department of Defence contractor, a government official has revealed.

A manager at the Australian Signals Directorate – the government's main national security cyber spies – told a conference in Sydney on Wednesday that the hackers stole 30 gigabytes of data including on the Defence projects.
...
The small aerospace engineering firm of about 50 employees, which had contracts on a number of Defence projects, had just one IT staff member who had been in the job nine months, which Mr Clarke described as "sloppy".

"There's no way this one IT person could have done everything perfectly across the whole domain."

The firm had used default logins and passwords "admin" and "guest".
Click to expand...
Good grief ....
 
B

Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
10,147
4,902
28,180
In the secluded world of the IMF, a big change:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/11/imf-higher-taxes-rich-inequality-jeremy-corbyn-labour-donald-trump

This is genuinely a massive development. Not that the IMF is a home of impeccable economic analysis by any means, but it's a large shift. Since the late 70s early 80s the institution has been the key driving force of the neoliberal consensus of Reagan and Thatcher around the world, and has overseen some improvements in countries but also huge mistakes. Raising taxes goes against all that those economists believed in, and demostrates a shift in thinking. It also makes the IMF go against its parent state, the USA, whose president is proposing a low tax plan, which never happens as the IMF normally follows DC policy. Is it really possible that Trump has managed to piss off their puppet institution, or has the IMF mutated and formed a free thinking mind of its own?
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
7,527
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^perhaps an important IMF change, but hardly groundbreaking...

until and unless the international monetary fund changes its outdated governance model, the unfair dominance of a single super-state will continue serving as as a POLITICAL tool of the said state. just like its military dominance or the dollar status of a reserve currency.

hardly fair to the rest of the world, including the european economies save such economic giants like chine and india.

when the governance changes currently blocked by the us to extend its unfair advantage go through, only then it would be groundbreaking. my opinion.
 
E

Echoes

Oct 8, 2009
3,391
6
13,495
Well Trump was no change, it seems, back-pedalling on all his promises. I've always had doubts but for sure he was a better candidate than Hillary and Hillary would've withdrawn from Unesco as well, for the same reason. This being said, Unesco is crap.
 
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