Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[Galic Ho]

Ah I see, sorry, am so used to on other forums (fora?) everyone ignoring the subject line being left blank. So if we assume that this agreement holds, and the 18 ProTour teams (as they should do) all get invites that ALREADY takes us up to to 20 teams.
for 22 teams to take part, one would assume (as I pointed out previously) that the established Cervelo team (with 2 good sprinters and a GC candidate), would automatically get the place. Leaving us with a fight between BMC (with only really Evans as a plus point) and Vacansoleil (who as I pointed out have a good mix of french talent, important for the TDF to appeal to the French public, and the young talent of Hoogerland) for the remaining place. I myself would probably think Vacansoleil fopr the place, but it would be close - I suppose they could choose not to invite 1 of the ProTour teams (Footon-Servetto in which case, who missed out last year due to the year before having Ricco) to make room for both, but this may be harsh considering the status of the ProTour teams. Only time will tell I suppose.

They never invite all the pro Tour teams. They invited 16 last year out of 18. This year Cofidis went to a Continental license but have a guarantee. There are two new teams to the Pro Tour (who should never have been given this privilege, because it is against the code and mantra decreed by the UCI), making 19 pro Tour teams. Footon will not be invited. That leaves four right spots right there if all 18 Pro Tour teams are invited and the ASO increase team numbers to 22. Cofidis and Skil are guaranteed (in word) and Cervelo are a deadset. BBox, BMC, Vancansoleil are the leftovers, maybe even Acqua Saponne. Unless another pro Tour team is not invited (drug scandal or a number of positives within the team) in theory there is only one place up for contestation. BMC will probably get it. Andy Rihs is very well connected and has cash to burn. If not, the team don't care. Their aim was an invite for 2011.

 

[Angliru]

On Alpe Dhuez, evans simply didn't have it to chase or react to Contador.

Of course you mean Sastre and not Contador, right?

I'm thinking his planned participation in the Giro is a smart move because his team's Tour invite is not guaranteed. He'll have a chance at his first grand tour victory and a strong, high profile Giro performance can only help in BMC getting a Tour invite. Plus with such a competitive field, IMO one of the most impressive lists of gc contenders in years, it's much wiser to have a major plus already on the record (a strong Giro performance), with Evans not being one of the favorites for the Tour overall.

 

[ScottyMuser]

Dammot, keep forgetting its 2010! (my comment re Liquigas being strongest for TDF was of course meant for THIS years (ie the NEXT) TDF)
I think you are under-estimating the importance of a good team support when rating Evans' chances - I honestly think it is one of the weaker climbing supports for any team - Big George is getting old, and has never been a great climber,and after that they only have Horner. My comments re: Liquigas is IF they focus properly (so yes, have Pelizotti ride the Giro for the win, but then train to be a purely a domestique, rather than have him jump into breaks to get KOM points as he did this year), then having 1 out of Nibali/Kreuzeiger/Basso as their main rider, with the others (plus Pelizotti/Szymd/Zaugg) helping out pace him WILL result in them having at least 1 rider in the final break 5 or so, just by simple maths. And although yes, as a GC rider Evans is better than their main 3, with the weakness of his team, Liquigas, IMO, have to be considered stronger challengers for not losing time in the mountains. And to suggest that Nibali/Kreuzeiger haven't established that they have the ability to stick with the big boys, despite them doing exactly that last year in the TDF (Nilbali only finished behind Kloden/Wiggo because of time lost in the iTT and TTTs, otherwise would have been close/higher than them), and only being 25 is silly
To re-iterate, Nibali is just turned 25, has already placed top 20 in the 4 GTs he has entered, including 7th in one of the best contested (in terms of actual talent of riders) TDF in recent memory. Kreuzeiger will be 24 in May and has alread 2 top 15 finished in the TDF (and a 21st in the Vuelta 21 year old).
At the age of 25 Evans had only entered 1 GT (that year, finishing 14th in the Giro). I guess what I am trying to say is these guys are INCREDIBLY young, have massive potential to improve (and no doubt will do this winter, unlike Evans who is probably coming to the end of his peak as a GT cyclist) and a FAR stronger team to back them up, I can't see, without massive losses on cobbles/TTs, Evans beating both in the GC.

 

[ScottyMuser]

They never invite all the pro Tour teams. They invited 16 last year out of 18. This year Cofidis went to a Continental license but have a guarantee. There are two new teams to the Pro Tour (who should never have been given this privilege, because it is against the code and mantra decreed by the UCI), making 19 pro Tour teams. Footon will not be invited. That leaves four right spots right there if all 18 Pro Tour teams are invited and the ASO increase team numbers to 22. Cofidis and Skil are guaranteed (in word) and Cervelo are a deadset. BBox, BMC, Vancansoleil are the leftovers, maybe even Acqua Saponne. Unless another pro Tour team is not invited (drug scandal or a number of positives within the team) in theory there is only one place up for contestation. BMC will probably get it. Andy Rihs is very well connected and has cash to burn. If not, the team don't care. Their aim was an invite for 2011.

So if we acknowledge that they may not get an invite this year, and work on the assumption Evans will be next competing seriously in the 2011 tour what can we say? He will be one year older, and weaker as a rider - his main support (Hincapie) will be too; without major reinforcements they as a a team will be getting weaker (IMO so will the Shack but thats another matter)
contador/schlecks will be one year older and wiser, ditto the Liquigas boys. Sky IMO will be stronger, with Thomas/Flecha/EBH using this year to get stronger/more experienced (and if, as some expect, they go for another big name GC contender alongside Wiggo) much stronger. Of course, we can't now argue about the parcours of the event (maybe a hillier TT like last year, favouring others than Evans). Menchov/Gesink will also be more experienced and stronger, as will most of the other GC contenders. I still can't see Evans getting a podium then.

 

[Galic Ho]

So if we acknowledge that they may not get an invite this year, and work on the assumption Evans will be next competing seriously in the 2011 tour what can we say? He will be one year older, and weaker as a rider - his main support (Hincapie) will be too; without major reinforcements they as a a team will be getting weaker (IMO so will the Shack but thats another matter)
contador/schlecks will be one year older and wiser, ditto the Liquigas boys. Sky IMO will be stronger, with Thomas/Flecha/EBH using this year to get stronger/more experienced (and if, as some expect, they go for another big name GC contender alongside Wiggo) much stronger. Of course, we can't now argue about the parcours of the event (maybe a hillier TT like last year, favouring others than Evans). Menchov/Gesink will also be more experienced and stronger, as will most of the other GC contenders. I still can't see Evans getting a podium then.

Your other post about Liquigas is ok, in theory. Reality is though that the potential has not been met. Age means little when potential is the agenda. Sure Nibali and Kreuziger looked ok on Mt Ventoux and Nibali was very solid on Verbier. They are still miles off Contador and Schleck in the hills and only on part with Schleck in the ITT. They have potential, as you put it, but like Gesink, they must deliver before they will have me convinced. I'll know if they have a standout day when they're announced their GC podium arrival. Till then, Evans and everyone else I mentioned will beat them if they turn up, in form and ready to race. Kreuziger looked stronger in the last week than the first two, but he was not strong enough in the first two. Nibali seemed to be a bit off in the third week, or perhaps he wasn't, Kreuziger had just improved, by comparison.

BMC experience. Does not matter. They only have to get Cadel to the final climb, like Lotto use to do. He'll do the rest. Sure a teammate helps, but as I've explained many times, you have to move the pedals. Nobody can do that for you. Either you're strong enough or you are not. Liquigas will have to have improved considerably to beat Astana and Saxo, because the Schleck's and Contador held back in their attacks at times. Doubt that will happen this year. All Evans, Sastre and Menchov need to do at the Tour (still don't think Carlos will go their to podium) is stick with teams setting the pace. Cervelo, Rabo and BMC will not do this. They don't need to. Liquigas won't, because unless they improve out of bounds, they will be too tired. With teams like Garmin, Caisse, Euskatel and Sky, Liquigas will contribute with a lone rider, but they will not go to the front like Saxo, Shack or even Astana may do and dictate pace to burn off riders.

We'll have to wait and see how the teams go, but I'm not expecting massive improvements or miracles. Until potential manifests, Evans is better than all the younger riders except the Schleck's and Contador.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So if we acknowledge that they may not get an invite this year, and work on the assumption Evans will be next competing seriously in the 2011 tour what can we say? He will be one year older, and weaker as a rider - his main support (Hincapie) will be too; without major reinforcements they as a a team will be getting weaker (IMO so will the Shack but thats another matter)
contador/schlecks will be one year older and wiser, ditto the Liquigas boys. Sky IMO will be stronger, with Thomas/Flecha/EBH using this year to get stronger/more experienced (and if, as some expect, they go for another big name GC contender alongside Wiggo) much stronger. Of course, we can't now argue about the parcours of the event (maybe a hillier TT like last year, favouring others than Evans). Menchov/Gesink will also be more experienced and stronger, as will most of the other GC contenders. I still can't see Evans getting a podium then.

-1
Just on one of your points you say menchov will be more experienced but really he is no young chicken either. Though neither he or cadel are on the decline.

 

[Anonymous]

win what? ...

 

[auscyclefan94]

Of course you mean Sastre and not Contador, right?

I'm thinking his planned participation in the Giro is a smart move because his team's Tour invite is not guaranteed. He'll have a chance at his first grand tour victory and a strong, high profile Giro performance can only help in BMC getting a Tour invite. Plus with such a competitive field, IMO one of the most impressive lists of gc contenders in years, it's much wiser to have a major plus already on the record (a strong Giro performance), with Evans not being one of the favorites for the Tour overall.

Yeah, i meant sastre, sorry! When are the wildcards announced because some people are saying may and some are saying march.

 

[ScottyMuser]

-1
Just on one of your points you say menchov will be more experienced but really he is no young chicken either. Though neither he or cadel are on the decline.

For them I meant more experienced as a duo being able to both support each other, and if 1 turns out stronger, take the lead/jump out (kinda like Nibali/Kreuzeiger did, and Wiggo/VDV could be said) If you thought I meant Menchov as a single rider then thats not what I meant in that case

 

[karlboss]

Radioshack will be a strong team, from 2009. Armstrong 3rd, Kloden 6th on its own is pretty good, without the team time trial they still would have been easily top 10. Horner showed he could climb (at least week 1) with the best, leipheimer has finished on the podium of a at least 2 GTs, Zubeldia top 5 at the tour, popovych has proven himself...How can anyone count this as not a strong team? There is no way they will not make an impact at the tour. How much of an impact is up to them. Usual tactics will see them with a rider in the top 5...unconventional(attacking) who knows.
Or do we all somehow believe all of these riders will bomb?

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Lance, or anyone else, can beat Contador or Shleck for strength, but the team is strong.

 

[Publicus]

Radioshack will be a strong team, from 2009. Armstrong 3rd, Kloden 6th on its own is pretty good, without the team time trial they still would have been easily top 10. Horner showed he could climb (at least week 1) with the best, leipheimer has finished on the podium of a at least 2 GTs, Zubeldia top 5 at the tour, popovych has proven himself...How can anyone count this as not a strong team? There is no way they will not make an impact at the tour. How much of an impact is up to them. Usual tactics will see them with a rider in the top 5...unconventional(attacking) who knows.
Or do we all somehow believe all of these riders will bomb?

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Lance, or anyone else, can beat Contador or Shleck for strength, but the team is strong.

They are undoubtedly strong, but to what end? Unless Armstrong recaptures his 1999-2001 climbing form, no one on that team (singularly or collectively) has the ability to stay with Andy or Alberto. So while I agree Levi and Kloden are strong and will make the almost final selection, and that Popo and Zubeldia will be excellent domestiques in the drive up to the final selection, when the final selection comes, I don't think it is going to matter.

Team strength to me comes into play when you talk about chasing down breaks, TTT or otherwise controlling the flow of the race. At the end of the day though, if your go to guy is not as good as the other "weaker" team's go to guy, it's all for not.

 

[Cerberus]

They are undoubtedly strong, but to what end? Unless Armstrong recaptures his 1999-2001 climbing form, no one on that team (singularly or collectively) has the ability to stay with Andy or Alberto. So while I agree Levi and Kloden are strong and will make the almost final selection, and that Popo and Zubeldia will be excellent domestiques in the drive up to the final selection, when the final selection comes, I don't think it is going to matter.

Team strength to me comes into play when you talk about chasing down breaks, TTT or otherwise controlling the flow of the race. At the end of the day though, if your go to guy is not as good as the other "weaker" team's go to guy, it's all for not.

Well team Strength can also matter in closing or lenghening a gap created on a sidewind stage, or if a genuine contender managed to get away with a breakaway on a stage (stage 16 looks the most promising for that IMO).

 

[karlboss]

There is no doubt the shack can do all the supporting needed. To put someone other than contador top step is going to take something special. I was more commenting on guys saying Radioshack isn't that strong. That team for supporting is plenty strong.

 

[Publicus]

Well team Strength can also matter in closing or lenghening a gap created on a sidewind stage, or if a genuine contender managed to get away with a breakaway on a stage (stage 16 looks the most promising for that IMO).

I don't disagree. I would include both of those with "Controlling the race."

 

[Cerberus]

I don't disagree. I would include both of those with "Controlling the race."

I was objecting to your statement that "At the end of the day though, if your go to guy is not as good as the other "weaker" team's go to guy, it's all for not."

My contention was that having a stronger team can be decisive, though perhaps I'm taking your statement a bit to literally. I agree that generally the strongest rider wins. The closest thing to a clear difference being made by the team would be 2006 where Pereiro could have won without the disqualification of Landis if his Team had been stronger. Of cause with the disqualification he won anyways. Also Evans might have won in 2007 and/or 2008 with a sufficiently strong team.

 

[karlboss]

I was objecting to your statement that "At the end of the day though, if your go to guy is not as good as the other "weaker" team's go to guy, it's all for not."

My contention was that having a stronger team can be decisive, though perhaps I'm taking your statement a bit to literally. I agree that generally the strongest rider wins. The closest thing to a clear difference being made by the team would be 2006 where Pereiro could have won without the disqualification of Landis if his Team had been stronger. Of cause with the disqualification he won anyways. Also Evans might have won in 2007 and/or 2008 with a sufficiently strong team.

lol, so in 3 of the last 4 editions the team played a major part in the winner...wow not important at all.

Nah, I see what you are both saying. I don't think there is team that could be assembled that see lance as stated leader beat andy or alberto. However the shack has some great cards to play. Imagine each day tell Lance, Andreas or Levi to get in the break, or to attack. Many headaches for many teams. Maybe too many and someone slips away.
Can't see it. They ride defensive as always and contador puts them in their place first mountain top finish.

 

[Cerberus]

lol, so in 3 of the last 4 editions the team played a major part in the winner...wow not important at all.

I actually forgot about Evans at first and only added the last sentence as an afterthought. I suppose it does make my post look rather odd.

Nah, I see what you are both saying. I don't think there is team that could be assembled that see lance as stated leader beat andy or alberto. However the shack has some great cards to play. Imagine each day tell Lance, Andreas or Levi to get in the break, or to attack. Many headaches for many teams. Maybe too many and someone slips away.

Even so there'd be many teams to help catch them and their breakaway Companions might not be to cooperative.

lCan't see it. They ride defensive as always and contador puts them in their place first mountain top finish.

Most likely.

 

[Angliru]

Yeah, i meant sastre, sorry! When are the wildcards announced because some people are saying may and some are saying march.

I believe it's the later date. I don't recall the wild cards being announced as early as March, they haven't done enough races to have proven their worth.

 

[*G*K*S*]

I believe it's the later date. I don't recall the wild cards being announced as early as March, they haven't done enough races to have proven their worth.

Last year's Tour teams were announced March 17th.

 

[Angliru]

Last year's Tour teams were announced March 17th.

That early?? I stand corrected.

 

[Publicus]

I was objecting to your statement that "At the end of the day though, if your go to guy is not as good as the other "weaker" team's go to guy, it's all for not."

My contention was that having a stronger team can be decisive, though perhaps I'm taking your statement a bit to literally. I agree that generally the strongest rider wins. The closest thing to a clear difference being made by the team would be 2006 where Pereiro could have won without the disqualification of Landis if his Team had been stronger. Of cause with the disqualification he won anyways. Also Evans might have won in 2007 and/or 2008 with a sufficiently strong team.

My contention would be that Pereiro wasn't the strongest guy that year (he wasn't even the strongest on his team, Valverde crashed out on stage 3) and that neither Caisse nor Phonak, for that matter, was the strongest team. That would have been Discovery Channel. Landis was the strongest rider (for obvious reasons now) but Phonak's line up of: Grabsch, Hunter, Jalabert, Merckx, Moerabout (sp), Moos, Pena and Landis made it a good team, but not a strong team. Compare Discovery Channel: Azevedo, Ekimov, Hincapie, Martinez, Noval, Padrnos, Popo, Rubiera and Salvodelli. They had won the 2005 TdF would almost the exact line up with Armstrong, the only difference being Armstrong and Beltran were on the team (Ekimov and Martinez didn't make the cut).

As for 2007, Evans wasn't the strongest rider in the field and having a stronger team would not have made a difference. Between the Chicken and AC mountaintop duels, he was destined to finish 2nd at best.

He lost in 2008 primarily because he crashed--though I still did not consider him the strongest rider. That being said, I think 2008 is probably the best example of what you are talking about. If Evans had one or two more domestiques who could have ridden with him at Alpe d'Huez, he might have pulled it out.

 

[Angliru]

As for 2007, Evans wasn't the strongest rider in the field and having a stronger team would not have made a difference. Between the Chicken and AC mountaintop duels, he was destined to finish 2nd at best.

He lost in 2008 primarily because he crashed--though I still did not consider him the strongest rider. That being said, I think 2008 is probably the best example of what you are talking about. If Evans had one or two more domestiques who could have ridden with him at Alpe d'Huez, he might have pulled it out.

In 2008 Andy Schleck was the strongest rider, just not the most experienced/mature rider, thus his bonk due to not fueling that caused him to drop out of contention. Evans primary fault is his lack of tactical awareness and maintaining a cool head.
He is obviously one of the strongest and steadiest riders there is in today's peloton. The difference is in his inability to rise above the obstacles that he's presented with. Look at Denis Menchov who is pretty close in overall talent to Evans and yet he has 3 grand tour wins under his belt. Menchov is actually the polar opposite of Evans in terms of emotions and it appears to have served him well.

 

[Cerberus]

My contention would be that Pereiro wasn't the strongest guy that year (he wasn't even the strongest on his team, Valverde crashed out on stage 3) and that neither Caisse nor Phonak, for that matter, was the strongest team. That would have been Discovery Channel. Landis was the strongest rider (for obvious reasons now) but Phonak's line up of: Grabsch, Hunter, Jalabert, Merckx, Moerabout (sp), Moos, Pena and Landis made it a good team, but not a strong team. Compare Discovery Channel: Azevedo, Ekimov, Hincapie, Martinez, Noval, Padrnos, Popo, Rubiera and Salvodelli. They had won the 2005 TdF would almost the exact line up with Armstrong, the only difference being Armstrong and Beltran were on the team (Ekimov and Martinez didn't make the cut).

Clearly pereiro wasn't the strongest, but having gotten 30 minutes in that breakaway a stronger team would have allowed him to limit Landis' time gain on stage 17 and hold the Yellow jersey to Paris. I Suspect that even given that he was ultimately awarded the victory anyway he'd have preferred it that way. Or taking into account that Landis did get disqualified Klöden might have been able to make up the 34 seconds that separated him from victory.

As for 2007, Evans wasn't the strongest rider in the field and having a stronger team would not have made a difference. Between the Chicken and AC mountaintop duels, he was destined to finish 2nd at best.

He ultimately lost to Contador by 23 seconds and I think I remember Leipheimer pacing Contador on one climb. A stronger team could certainly have made 23 seconds worth of difference. Say had Leipheimer been on Evans team instead or Sastre or another top notch climber. Certainly he couldn't have beaten Rasmussen, but Contador was within reach.

He lost in 2008 primarily because he crashed--though I still did not consider him the strongest rider. That being said, I think 2008 is probably the best example of what you are talking about. If Evans had one or two more domestiques who could have ridden with him at Alpe d'Huez, he might have pulled it out.

Of cause the crash was important. I never said Team strength was the only factor in the race or even the most important (that would be individual strength obviously), simply that it can be decisive and to some extent was in the years 2006-2008 due to the small time differences and then way the race unfolded.

 

[movingtarget]

Evan's Chances

Evan's will win the Giro. He has no opposition except for Pellizotti and Basso and Sastre. Menchov is not riding the Giro nor is Gesink, Sanchez, Armstrong, Contador, Valverde, the Schlecks etc..........Not sure about Leipheimer or Kloden. A fresh start in a new team, out to impress and hoping for a start in the Tour de France. Basso is not the same rider without the rocket fuel and Pellizotti is a bit weak in the time trial as is Sastre. I think Sastre is the obvious danger. If BMC just use the Giro as training, they run the risk of missing a Tour start. Evan's may not have another good chance like this with some of the younger riders starting to emerge. It's a shame Menchov is not riding because it would have been a great battle between three riders of similar ability.

If Evans wins the Giro it will be very interesting to see how he performs in the Tour if he is invited. He usually thrives on lots of racing.

 

[theyoungest]

Evan's will win the Giro. He has no opposition except for Pellizotti and Basso and Sastre.

Hm. If Sastre really sets his mind to it, I consider him to be the Giro favourite. Out of these four riders I consider Evans to be the weakest climber.