107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

The startlist:
http://www.milanosanremo.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Iscritti-MISA16-al-13-3.pdf

It's not updated. Dumoulin still in despite confirming earlier on Twitter that he's too sick to ride it. There are other mistakes too (Betancur, Brambilla missing).

Sorry, I didn't know that.

 

[KyoGrey]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

Bonifazio was 5th in his first MSR. He was as old as Gaviria is now.

You just backed up my argument

 

[DFA123]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

He definitely has a chance. He is being supported by one of the strongest teams in the race and will have an incredible lead out train. Of course there are doubts about how he will go over the Poggio, but he's arguably the fastest sprinter in the race right now.

MSR in good weather isn't an especially hard race. Most riders, hiding in the peloton, will be doing less than 150 watts for the vast majority of the first six hours. As long as they eat and drink properly then they should all still have a lot of power available coming into the Cipressa.

 

[jaylew]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

Bonifazio was 5th in his first MSR. He was as old as Gaviria is now.

You just backed up my argument

Uh, how?

 

[The Hegelian]

Gaviria + Ewan have a shown a lot of potential so far this year.

Potential.

Winning (and coming 2nd) in one bunch sprint at TA is a bloody long way from being a top favourite for MSR.

Older legs, a more developed engine and a bit of experience count for a lot in this race.

Sentiment overtaking reason here methinks.

 

[KyoGrey]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

Bonifazio was 5th in his first MSR. He was as old as Gaviria is now.

You just backed up my argument

Uh, how?

Even one of the greatest debuts in MSR only allowed Bonifazio to be 5th.

I don't know, I don't wan't to come across as a hater or anything like that. It's only that so much talk about the 21 year old colombian and so little talk about top classic specialists on form today seems odd to me.

In fact I believe this year there is a chance that a very reduced group arrives for many reasons: bad weather, a lesser number of teams willing to control, a Peter Sagan that cannot wait for the sprint, Cancellara and GVA on stellar form, and the big favoritism of Kristoff due to the absence of Degenkolb.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Gaviria + Ewan have a shown a lot of potential so far this year.

Potential.

Winning (and coming 2nd) in one bunch sprint at TA is a bloody long way from being a top favourite for MSR.

Older legs, a more developed engine and a bit of experience count for a lot in this race.

Sentiment overtaking reason here methinks.

I don't understand this at all. Ewan isn't even racing. And no one is saying Gav should be the favorite, just that he's up there with 15+ other guys who could win. Some have a better shot, some worse. While young guys tend to struggle in longer races, it's not always the case, particularly in a race with an easy parcours like MSR. Modolo was 4th in his debut and isn't the talent Gav seems to be. No one on this forum is saying anything out of step with what the riders, team directors, press, and sports books are saying.

 

[jaylew]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

Bonifazio was 5th in his first MSR. He was as old as Gaviria is now.

You just backed up my argument

Uh, how?

Even one of the greatest debuts in MSR only allowed Bonifazio to be 5th.

I don't know, I don't wan't to come across as a hater or anything like that. It's only that so much talk about the 21 year old colombian and so little talk about top classic specialists on form today seems odd to me.

In fact I believe this year there is a chance that a very reduced group arrives for many reasons: bad weather, a lesser number of teams willing to control, a Peter Sagan that cannot wait for the sprint, Cancellara and GVA on stellar form, and the big favoritism of Kristoff due to the absence of Degenkolb.

And Modolo was 4th in his debut. Most people feel like Gav is way more talented than those two. I really, really hope it's not a bunch sprint but the absence of La Manie is going to make that tough.

 

[Brullnux]

Modolo was like 24 at the time, though. Bonifazio is pretty talented too and has more base talent in one day races than Gaviria I'd say, and is learning from the best. Gaviria is much faster though.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Modolo was like 24 at the time, though. Bonifazio is pretty talented too and has more base talent in one day races than Gaviria I'd say, and is learning from the best. Gaviria is much faster though.

Modolo was 22.

 

[Mr.White]

I believe it's not going to be bunch sprint. In fact I believe it's going to be small group at the end.
Main reasons are:
1.Classics riders are on fire. Cancellara, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Boasson Hagen all in great form. No one of them want a large group sprint finish. They will make hell on the Poggio, especially the first three.

2.Sprint teams are weaker this year and outnumbered. By sprint teams I'm thinking of Katusha and Cofidis. Katusha will feel the absence of Paolini who was instrumental in Kritoff's win in 2014 and also last year. I think they don't have a guy who could keep things under control on the Poggio and after. Cofidis also, they aren't a team who can do that in my opinion. Matthews will not wait for a bunch sprint if big attacks came on the Poggio, I think he will follow moves of the favorites, and that excludes Orica from chasing and leaves all for Katusha and Cofidis. Etixx will also follow moves with Stybar, they're not going to play much on the Gaviria card. Same goes for Sky and Lotto Soudal and Movistar. That leaves only those two teams which I think are not capable of keeping things together for a bunch sprint. FDJ might help too, but I don't think it will going to be enough.

3.Personal reason. I would really love to be attacker or the small group at the Via Roma

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Modolo was like 24 at the time, though. Bonifazio is pretty talented too and has more base talent in one day races than Gaviria I'd say, and is learning from the best. Gaviria is much faster though.

Modolo was 22.

Mixed up the years. Thought it was '11 instead of '10. 22 almost 23, though, which is different from 21 and a half.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Gaviria + Ewan have a shown a lot of potential so far this year.

Potential.

Winning (and coming 2nd) in one bunch sprint at TA is a bloody long way from being a top favourite for MSR.

Older legs, a more developed engine and a bit of experience count for a lot in this race.

Sentiment overtaking reason here methinks.

I don't understand this at all. Ewan isn't even racing. And no one is saying Gav should be the favorite, just that he's up there with 15+ other guys who could win. Some have a better shot, some worse. While young guys tend to struggle in longer races, it's not always the case, particularly in a race with an easy parcours like MSR. Modolo was 4th in his debut and isn't the talent Gav seems to be. No one on this forum is saying anything out of step with what the riders, team directors, press, and sports books are saying.

Yeah sure, he could be a super young neo-pro that can contest a 300k monument. Point is we have no idea at all how he will fare. For every young neo-pro that has no trouble with a hard classic of that length, there are 20 who do, and have to learn year by year how to build towards it. I mean think of Sagan! Probably the best young classics talent to have arrived in a generation, and still yet to open his monument account; still hasn't quite mastered finishing it off at the end of a long hard race. That's what history shows us, and I'll take history over pure speculation.

Seems to me that people - that includes press et al - are conflating the future with the present.

That's the point of including Ewan in my post: he and Gav have shown themselves to be the next top sprinters. But it doesn't follow that they're there now. They'll clearly be winning some quality races even this year. But neither are anywhere near the pedigree of Kristoff et al in the finale of a long monument.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Gaviria + Ewan have a shown a lot of potential so far this year.

Potential.

Winning (and coming 2nd) in one bunch sprint at TA is a bloody long way from being a top favourite for MSR.

Older legs, a more developed engine and a bit of experience count for a lot in this race.

Sentiment overtaking reason here methinks.

I don't understand this at all. Ewan isn't even racing. And no one is saying Gav should be the favorite, just that he's up there with 15+ other guys who could win. Some have a better shot, some worse. While young guys tend to struggle in longer races, it's not always the case, particularly in a race with an easy parcours like MSR. Modolo was 4th in his debut and isn't the talent Gav seems to be. No one on this forum is saying anything out of step with what the riders, team directors, press, and sports books are saying.

Yeah sure, he could be a super young neo-pro that can contest a 300k monument. Point is we have no idea at all how he will fare. For every young neo-pro that has no trouble with a hard classic of that length, there are 20 who do, and have to learn year by year how to build towards it. I mean think of Sagan! Probably the best young classics talent to have arrived in a generation, and still yet to open his monument account; still hasn't quite mastered finishing it off at the end of a long hard race. That's what history shows us, and I'll take history over pure speculation.

Seems to me that people - that includes press et al - are conflating the future with the present.

That's the point of including Ewan in my post: he and Gav have shown themselves to be the next top sprinters. But it doesn't follow that they're there now. They'll clearly be winning some quality races even this year. But neither are anywhere near the pedigree of Kristoff et al in the finale of a long monument.

I guess we just read history differently. History tells me it's not overly hard for a talented neo pro to finish in the top 10 at MSR. Sure it's long, but we're not talking about a hard race like the other monuments, particularly with La Manie gone. If this thing ends in a bunch sprint, I'd be really surprised for him not to be in the mix. If a small group goes to the finish he likely won't be there, however.

People seem to forget that the reason he's being mentioned is the high likelihood of a pack finish which I really hope not to see.

And I'd say Sagan got that monkey off his back last fall.

 

[The Hegelian]

I suppose that's fair enough.

MSR is hard though. And the hardness of it usually manifests in the sprint. A bunch sprint at 300km is completely different from one at 190km. It really comes down to who has the legs, rather than who is the purest/quickest sprinter. i.e. 2014 - How often would Cancellera outsprint Cav in a bunch sprint? Once, at MSR.

 

[greenedge]

Etixx backing Gaviria. He can't race that far. He dropped out of the breakaway before the finish in T-A.

He was pulling for Stybar though.

 

[greenedge]

My thoughts on who the favourites are- I hope Matthews can win.

***** Kristoff and Sagan. Kristoff should be up there and has the endurance needed to win, while Sagan has so many options available to him. He looks very strong too.
****.5 Cancellara and Matthews. They can both win from a sprint or small group, with Cancellara having the option of soloing as well. Both will have very strong teams too.
****Bouhanni, GVA and EBH. All have won this year and all are on good form.
***Here's where i'll just start to list heaps of riders. Bakelants, Clarke, Lutsenko, Colbrelli, Stybar, Brambilla, Gaviria, Cavendish, Modolo, Ulissi, Wellens, Gallopin, Debusschere, Bonifazio, Nizzolo, Kwiatowski and Swift.
** Gavazzi, Nibali, Gatto, Oss, Bennet, Navardauskas, Cummings, Trentin, Boonen, Simon, Demare, Vichot, Howard, Valverde, Lobato, Impey, Haller, Arndt, Geschke, Fedi, Vanmarcke, Thomas, Puccio, Kennaugh, Viviani and Felline.

I'm hoping teams like Cannondale and Lotto can animate the races over the closing 40km's, although they are not as strong as teams like BMC or Tinkoff in terms of whitling down the peleton for a leader they should just attack so as to have a chance at winning.

 

[SKSemtex]

With the present form of Cance GVA Stybar Sagan, EBH I cannot imagine the bunch sprint unless Sagan and his team decide the oposite.

It wil be fun to see how these 5 + Kristoff will or will not cooperate to keep the break distanced from the peloton.

I have a feeling Cance will be very furious in the end of the day.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

The thing is, most of them are confident they can beat the others in a small group sprint. When Kristoff isn't there I mean.
Stybar can't wait for a sprint, though he seldomly launches winning attacks, and I have no idea what kind of rider EBH has become.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Vanmarcke as a very dark horse? He has to anticipate though...

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Re:

***Here's where i'll just start to list heaps of riders. (...) Wellens

No Wellens (illness), Lars Bak takes his spot

 

[del1962]

It will be interesting to see how Gavira goes, he hasn't ridden many one day races yet, in ride London he faded from a small group, so I see his best chance in a mass sprint

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

The thing is, most of them are confident they can beat the others in a small group sprint. When Kristoff isn't there I mean.
Stybar can't wait for a sprint, though he seldomly launches winning attacks, and I have no idea what kind of rider EBH has become.

Probably they are confident they can beat Sagan after 300 km in the end but lets imagine the situation that Sagan refuse to do the biggest job and do what GVA did on TA. He has the right to do and he will probably do it.

I am really looking forward to this break

 

[Gigs_98]

I wont know if I should cry or laugh if after all this discussions about riders attacking on the poggio the race will turn out to be completely boring and a rider like cav wins
But seriously, I hope you guys arent all too optimistic

 

[SafeBet]

Weather is excellent at the moment and it shouldn't change.