108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[frisenfruitig]

Re:

I say this every year and I understand why some posters dislike this race, but I reckon the route is just fine.
I know what I'm getting: a doomed break, a couple of strong late attacks with a 1% chance, full gas up the Poggio, nervous descending and then let's check who's there and who's not.

Predictable, but I like it.

Yeah, I can agree with that. It's not my favorite monument at all, but the final can be pretty exciting. Doesn't come close to the RVV/PR but at least it isn't as boring as the FW. Just a snoozefest until the final climb. At least with MSR you can have different scenarios.

It's a very hard race to win even when you are as good as Sagan. I think he has the best chance at winning by setting a very high pace up the Cipressa and Poggio to try and smother the rest of the fast guys and hope he can beat Gaviria. If he attacks he will have to do most of the work himself I think.

 

[Mr.White]

Colbrelli or Sagan ftw

 

[Kwibus]

this race really needs Le Manie.

Guess I will try to watch the final 20km, or atleast from the bottom of the Poggio.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

Last year, Peter's tactic was to mark Cancellara. So he didn't take any initiative and it ended with a disapointing finish.
This time, having won already a monument and with Bennett behind, he has 3 options :

1. Attack early on the Pogio, create a big gap on the descent and time trialling to the finish line alone (dream scenario).
2. Follow attacks from Kawazaki or GVA on the Pogio, work with them until the sprint (could lose to Kwito if he dosen't collaborate).
3. Wait untill the buch sprint if Bennett dosen't make it to the Pogio (30% of winning vs Demarre & Gaviria).

I thought Sagan's tactics were pretty decent last year. Went with Cancellara who was probably the only rider who could have made a late attack stick; then he was in a great position going into the final 500m, while the other big name sprinters were using a lot more energy to get back on after the Poggio. Then Gaviria crashed right in front of him and he was out of it - not much he could have done about that. I think his best chance is still in a bunch sprint - it's too hard to stay away after the Poggio because a) he'd probably have to do it solo and b) there are too many strong sprinter's teams who would work to close him down.

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two. The bigger dangers are probably Kristoff and Degenkolb who have both proven several times that they can put out very impressive efforts at the end of a long day.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

The most boring race of the entire calendar by far !

Unless it is raining snowing and freezing like in 2013. I loved that edition. I admired so much every single rider who did not give up and finish the race.

Sagan looked like ironman that day. It was probably his last chance to win it. Unless they do something with the route (and I think they do not ) it is going to be very hard to defeat all top tier sprinters with their strong teams.

Since that day I have been considering him as a rider for "armageddon" weather but that was actually probably the last time I saw him doing good in terrible weather conditions. Probably his last two Sierra Nevada preparation made him like riding in rainy days again.

Last year, Peter's tactic was to mark Cancellara. So he didn't take any initiative and it ended with a disapointing finish.
This time, having won already a monument and with Bennett behind, he has 3 options :

1. Attack early on the Pogio, create a big gap on the descent and time trialling to the finish line alone (dream scenario).
2. Follow attacks from Kawazaki or GVA on the Pogio, work with them until the sprint (could lose to Kwito if he dosen't collaborate).
3. Wait untill the buch sprint if Bennett dosen't make it to the Pogio (30% of winning vs Demarre & Gaviria).

I thought Sagan's tactics were pretty decent last year. Went with Cancellara who was probably the only rider who could have made a late attack stick; then he was in a great position going into the final 500m, while the other big name sprinters were using a lot more energy to get back on after the Poggio. Then Gaviria crashed right in front of him and he was out of it - not much he could have done about that. I think his best chance is still in a bunch sprint - it's too hard to stay away after the Poggio because a) he'd probably have to do it solo and b) there are too many strong sprinter's teams who would work to close him down.

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two. The bigger dangers are probably Kristoff and Degenkolb who have both proven several times that they can put out very impressive efforts at the end of a long day.

Kristoff looks like disconnected wagon after Paolini suspension. He is now only the shadow of his version 2014-2015

 

[OlavEH]

Re: Re:

What is the latest on Le Manie and La Pompeiana (apologies if I have got the spelling wrong)?

Are there any plans to reintroduce them in the future?

No idea, last year there was a ton of crying about the boring race and the rather odd winner in Italy (that wouldn't have happened if a 2nd rate Italian sprinter, let's say Cimolai, had won it) and even La Gazzetta talked about how the race became a sprinters classic and a possible route change, they even interviewed great Italian winners of the past and asked them about it, so I assumed that RCS wanted to change the route, but now we still have the same route.

I could agree on the arguments with those claiming that adding Pompeiana between CIpressa and Poggio would make the race too hard, and there reducing the sprinter's chances significantly.

My suggestion would rather be reintroducing Le Manie and substituting Cipressa with Pompeiana. The latter climb is about the same length as Cipressa, but is somewhat steeper both in average and maximum gradient. In addition it would reduce the flat section before Poggio from 9 to 5 km. This would make it easier to attack before Poggio and avoding getting caught by the peloton.

 

[King Boonen]

This is a funny race. Everyone always says that they knew who was going to win, but that's almost always after the race. Since Cav won in '09 (and possibly even including him) the race is nearly always won by one of the lesser favourites or an outsider. Even for pros, I think people really underestimate what nearly 300km does to your legs.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

What is the latest on Le Manie and La Pompeiana (apologies if I have got the spelling wrong)?

Are there any plans to reintroduce them in the future?

No idea, last year there was a ton of crying about the boring race and the rather odd winner in Italy (that wouldn't have happened if a 2nd rate Italian sprinter, let's say Cimolai, had won it) and even La Gazzetta talked about how the race became a sprinters classic and a possible route change, they even interviewed great Italian winners of the past and asked them about it, so I assumed that RCS wanted to change the route, but now we still have the same route.

I could agree on the arguments with those claiming that adding Pompeiana between CIpressa and Poggio would make the race too hard, and there reducing the sprinter's chances significantly.

My suggestion would rather be reintroducing Le Manie and substituting Cipressa with Pompeiana. The latter climb is about the same length as Cipressa, but is somewhat steeper both in average and maximum gradient. In addition it would reduce the flat section before Poggio from 9 to 5 km. This would make it easier to attack before Poggio and avoding getting caught by the peloton.

Adding Pompeiana is a dumb idea. Milano-Sanremo isn't supposed to yet another Ardennes-classic. It's supposed to be a race where the sprinters have a chance.

 

[Akuryo]

I hope for Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski or Sagan with an attack. Maybe even all 3 together. In a bunch sprint I am rooting for Gaviria!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Love all the monuments. For a long time. Il Re Leone ftw, no?

 

[DNP-Old]

Bernal is riding this apparently.

 

[OlavEH]

Re: Re:

Adding Pompeiana is a dumb idea. Milano-Sanremo isn't supposed to yet another Ardennes-classic. It's supposed to be a race where the sprinters have a chance.

Well, substituting Cipressa with Pompeiana wouldn't make MSR like an Ardennes classic. It would just make it a tad more difficult for the sprinters, and increasing the chance to win after an attack on the second last climb. Now it's close to impossible to win after attacking at Cipressa. There is too much flat between Cipressa and Poggio, and the Poggio is too easy for an attack at Cipressa to succeed. Pompeiana instead of Cipressa would increase the chance of succeeding with an attack before Poggio.

 

[jens_attacks]

Pippo pozzato ftw.

 

[killswitch]

Re:

Bernal is riding this apparently.

The Silver Fox is getting desperate it seems. Too many race days already.

 

[BigMac]

Hoping for a Sagan win in nice fashion.

 

[Jspear]

This is the race for underdogs and upsets. Cavendish for the win.

 

[StryderHells]

Sure it's not the most exciting race on the calendar but I actually quite like the race, it might look easy to most the but the distance does play a factor and I really enjoy the slow build up to the finish. Anyway seeing as non favourites tend to do well I'm going with Roelandts to snatch the win, I think Colbrelli is in with a mighty chance aswell

 

[phanatic]

Can anyone stop Moreno Moser?

 

[jaylew]

Can anyone stop Moreno Moser?

I don't think he needs any help in that department.

 

[hfer07]

Fernando Gaviria to be the 1st Colombian ever to win Milan San Remo

 

[The Hegelian]

I like MSR; history creates its own value. The parcours may = predictable racing, but they're also beautiful. It's always nice to watch, especially when the sun is out. Usually even the sprints are great to watch - because so much is at stake, everyone is totally dead, no one can control the peloton and it's just an epic lottery which usually throws up an unexpected winner.

And when the poggio attacks stick, it's breathtaking racing, because they never get more than 10 or so seconds, and it is very hard to organise a chase. Say what you will about the main course, MSR produces a great finale.

Tip: he's imperious, you just can't look past him, doesn't even need to be named.

 

[The Barb]

I'm still smarting from backing two riders in this last year:

Gaviria at $17 - Seemed to be cruising until he touched wheels and went down
Bouhanni at $11 - In great spot to begin sprint when suffered a mechanical. May not have beaten Demare but it would've been close.

I'll be re-loading on Gaviria although obviously the odds are not so attractive this time around.

 

[jaylew]

So tough to handicap this one, but I'll go:

*****Sagan
****Gaviria, Degenkolb, Matthews
***Kristoff, Colbrelli, Cavendish, Démare
**GVA, Bouhanni, Ewan, Boonen, Trentin, EBH, Viviani, Felline
*Gilbert, Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Roelandts, Kwia, Swift, Bennett

I'd most like to see GVA, Felline, EBH, or Gaviria take it

 

[The Hegelian]

Pretty decent effort Jaylew. Although I think I'd take Swift up a few notches - anyone who has podiumed more than once is at least a two, probably a three.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm still smarting from backing two riders in this last year:

Gaviria at $17 - Seemed to be cruising until he touched wheels and went down
Bouhanni at $11 - In great spot to begin sprint when suffered a mechanical. May not have beaten Demare but it would've been close.

I'll be re-loading on Gaviria although obviously the odds are not so attractive this time around.

Where and when did you get Gaviria at 17? That's very good! The highest I can see that he's ever been is 10.