108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[jaylew]

Re:

Sagan is underestimated in a bunch sprint - Has a number of victories against the top sprinters - Finally some of the top sprinter are dropped before the finish or don't even ride MSR.

i agree with this. In a super easy race he's generally not going to be as fast as someone like Kittel or Greipel but he's got a really good chance of beating anyone that he'd be sprinting against here.

Ewan and Gav probably have more absolute speed but who knows how they'll sprint after 291k? You could add Cav too but he's a bit of an unknown as he's been underwhelming so far this year and I just don't know that he has the form (or the team) to win. Anyone else I'd like his chances against in a sprint. Thing about Sagan is you never have to worry about positioning as he's almost always in the mix, team or no team. Of course, the fact that he often has to use his own energy to put himself in the right spot for the finale sometimes costs him.

 

[Mr.White]

He needs to save energy as much as possible imo. Late attack on the Poggio very rarely succeeds, and especially without Le Manie. In my opinion he should be attentive enough on the Poggio, just in case if the group snaps, to catch the leading group. But after that he should work no more than others, cause he often lose sprints when he works much. Or if everything stays together, try his chance in a sprint. He has the form, he has the speed, he doesn't need lead out, he navigates through the peloton quite well, and most of all, of all sprinters he will be the least affected by Cipressa/Poggio combo cause he handle the hills much better than others

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Pretty decent effort Jaylew. Although I think I'd take Swift up a few notches - anyone who has podiumed more than once is at least a two, probably a three.

Good point. I'd thought about giving him 2 but he's been anonymous so far this year so who knows where his form is?

So tough to handicap this one, but I'll go:

*****Sagan
****Gaviria, Degenkolb, Matthews
***Kristoff, Colbrelli, Cavendish, Démare
**GVA, Bouhanni, Ewan, Boonen, Trentin, EBH, Viviani, Felline
*Gilbert, Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Roelandts, Kwia, Swift, Bennett

Pretty good. I'd switch Matthews with Demare and I'd give Bouhanni 3 stars although his form is a bit of a question mark for me right now. I need to see how he does today in Danilith - Nokere Koerse.

Also good points. I wasn't sure about Bouhanni's form as he bailed at PN so quickly but I'd probably move him up to 3 stars after today's win. Yeah, I could understand switching Matthews and Démare but I just have a feeling about Bling for this year and I'm probably showing my bias with Arnaud.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Sagan is underestimated in a bunch sprint - Has a number of victories against the top sprinters - Finally some of the top sprinter are dropped before the finish or don't even ride MSR.

Nombers of victories against top sprinters in one day race? Really?

How often has he ridden a bunch sprint in one day races against top sprinters?

Moreover his rivals will be guys like kristoff, demare and Gaviria. Strong riders but not cav, Kittel and greipel. His chances in such a bunch sprint really aren't that bad and at least better than with a poggio attack

 

[staubsauger]

Gaviria has beaten Cav straightforward as a kid. He certainly's got more top speed than Sagan if it comes down to the line.

 

[Brullnux]

Am I the only one who thinks Sagan should for once try to race MSR completely conservatively. He usually spends way more time in the wind and way more energy on the poggio than any other good sprinter.

I agree, in part. But he probably thinks he has a small chance (say 15%) on a group with the biggest guns (Cav, or Greipel) or a decent chance (say 25%) in a bunch sprint without them, versus being the overwhelming favourite (say, 65%+) on a reduced kick where he doesn't really have to do all that work as it's a (gentle) downhill to San Remo. So I think it's hard for him to sense that and yet not attack.

Cavendish hasn't really shown himself to be much of a factor in the bunch sprint on Via Roma recently. He is OK but not amazing. He won't yet be in amazing form

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Gaviria has beaten Cav straightforward as a kid. He certainly's got more top speed than Sagan if it comes down to the line.

Sagan beat Cav many times, for example in the finale of the World Championships. What's your point?

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Gaviria has beaten Cav straightforward as a kid. He certainly's got more top speed than Sagan if it comes down to the line.

I think both he and Ewan have more top end but I wonder how much they'll have in the tank for the sprint, especially if the Cipressa and Poggio are raced hard. I have more faith in Gav in that situation because we've at least seen him make it to the finale in a good position and we saw what he did at Paris-Tours. Also he's more likely to have guys there to help position him - It's not like we usually see a bunch of sprint trains forming after the Poggio. Still, Sagan was as fast as Gaviria a few days ago so I'm not sure it's a slam dunk he'd take Sagan.

 

[staubsauger]

Sagan has to ride aggressively on Cipressa and Poggio as well imho. Simply because he needs to force a futher reduction of the contenders. Down to maybe a selected group that contains him and Gaviria. Maybe one of Bouhanni, Demare, Matthews and Kristoff as well. He needs to kill as much of these guys as possible. That might take it's toll on him in the final sprint just as likely as the hard racing might harm Gaviria's speed. That opens the door for another Ciolek like dark horse overall win as well.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Sagan has to ride aggressively on Cipressa and Poggio as well imho. Simply because he needs to force a futher reduction of the contenders. Down to maybe a selected group that contains him and Gaviria. Maybe one of Bouhanni, Demare, Matthews and Kristoff as well. He needs to kill as much of these guys as possible. That might take it's toll on him in the final sprint just as likely as the hard racing might harm Gaviria's speed. That opens the door for another Ciolek like dark horse overall win as well.

I disagree. I think he should simply ride with the bunch and do absolutely nothing before the bunch sprint. If he tries to make the race hard on the Poggio he will mostly make it hard for himself because he is the guy who rides in the wind. Guys like Gaviria can ride in the bunch so setting a high pace on the Poggio as a sprinter really isn't a good idea. If he works a lot on the Poggio the result of that work has to be that the bunch splits and all other good sprinters are behind.
Said differently you either win in a bunch sprint or with an attack. Doing a lot of work and then winning in a reduced bunch sprint definitely won't work.

 

[sQiD]

Paxti Vila : "He’s an artist on the bike. Just like the win of Flanders last year, that was so great. Let’s look to the artist and see what he produces in Sanremo.” Let's do it.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Sagan has to ride aggressively on Cipressa and Poggio as well imho. Simply because he needs to force a futher reduction of the contenders. Down to maybe a selected group that contains him and Gaviria. Maybe one of Bouhanni, Demare, Matthews and Kristoff as well. He needs to kill as much of these guys as possible. That might take it's toll on him in the final sprint just as likely as the hard racing might harm Gaviria's speed. That opens the door for another Ciolek like dark horse overall win as well.

I disagree. I think he should simply ride with the bunch and do absolutely nothing before the bunch sprint. If he tries to make the race hard on the Poggio he will mostly make it hard for himself because he is the guy who rides in the wind. Guys like Gaviria can ride in the bunch so setting a high pace on the Poggio as a sprinter really isn't a good idea. If he works a lot on the Poggio the result of that work has to be that the bunch splits and all other good sprinters are behind.
Said differently you either win in a bunch sprint or with an attack. Doing a lot of work and then winning in a reduced bunch sprint definitely won't work.

I can't really decide if his chances are better in a reduced sprint or in break-group established by getting a gap on Poggio. I don't think it is out of the question that he can get a 4-5 second gap over the top of the Poggio - Cancellara managed to extend a 4 second gap to 12 seconds in 2012. Why should Sagan not be able to do something similar?

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Sagan has to ride aggressively on Cipressa and Poggio as well imho. Simply because he needs to force a futher reduction of the contenders. Down to maybe a selected group that contains him and Gaviria. Maybe one of Bouhanni, Demare, Matthews and Kristoff as well. He needs to kill as much of these guys as possible. That might take it's toll on him in the final sprint just as likely as the hard racing might harm Gaviria's speed. That opens the door for another Ciolek like dark horse overall win as well.

I disagree. I think he should simply ride with the bunch and do absolutely nothing before the bunch sprint. If he tries to make the race hard on the Poggio he will mostly make it hard for himself because he is the guy who rides in the wind. Guys like Gaviria can ride in the bunch so setting a high pace on the Poggio as a sprinter really isn't a good idea. If he works a lot on the Poggio the result of that work has to be that the bunch splits and all other good sprinters are behind.
Said differently you either win in a bunch sprint or with an attack. Doing a lot of work and then winning in a reduced bunch sprint definitely won't work.

I can't really decide if his chances are better in a reduced sprint or in break-group established by getting a gap on Poggio. I don't think it is out of the question that he can get a 4-5 second gap over the top of the Poggio - Cancellara managed to extend a 4 second gap to 12 seconds in 2012. Why should Sagan not be able to do something similar?

And how did that work out for Cancellara? Not even an out-of-this-world-Canc could shed everyone, so it's extremely unlikely Sagan can, especially when being closely shadowed. If he breaks away with a few riders, it's equally unlikely they will push on with him.

In theory, it's even harder for him to win than in previous years now Cancellara is gone. This year he will be the number one watched guy by far. Though anything can happen really, that's what partly makes Milano-Sanremo so special.

 

[May0maniac]

From Scinto's FB page:

 

[Red Rick]

The importance of this race is determined whether Pisti likes the winner or not

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

 

[Ricco']

I just watched the line-up of UAE Team and where is Matteo Bono? No breakaway for him this year? Also, no Jan Barta??!!! Where is the respect for the traditions? At least we can always count with the Novo Nordisk guy.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

Matthews has been getting closer, I agree that he and Degenkolb will be the main dangers to Sagan. No way GVA outsprints those guys. Demare is another one.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I hope Cav wins though I think he is slowly building his form for the Tour. If no Cav I hope Demare repeats or GVA.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

I hope Cav wins though I think he is slowly building his form for the Tour. If no Cav I hope Demare repeats or GVA.

Hoping as well, but it's only a dream. He has said himself that his form isn't top notch right now. He raced far into the end of last year. He said MSR isn't a realistic objective this year.

 

[Jancouver]

Sagan needs all his teammates other than Bennet to go all out crazy bananas on Cipressa and then Sam Bennet should putt the hammer down and unleash hell on Poggio so there is no more than 10 guys going for the sprint ... one can only hope.

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Sagan needs all his teammates other than Bennet to go all out crazy bananas on Cipressa and then Sam Bennet should putt the hammer down and unleash hell on Poggio so there is no more than 10 guys going for the sprint ... one can only hope.

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

You don't have to worry about that. He's been a non-factor this year, and it'll continue that way for the rest of the year.

 

[shalgo]

Re:

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

How do you reconcile your "ANYBODY but Gerrans!" sentiment with your thinking fondly of Sagan adopting a Gerrans-like tactic to win ("Just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint")?

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

How do you reconcile your "ANYBODY but Gerrans!" sentiment with your thinking fondly of Sagan adopting a Gerrans-like tactic to win ("Just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint")?

Well, when Sagan follows an attack, he will work with those riders as he does not want to get caught. Gerro on the other side, will never take a single pull regardless of the size of the break and he will rather get caught by the peloton.

BTW I would never dare to compare Sagan to Gerro. Its like comparing Contador (riding and attacking style) with Leipheimer or Zubeldia :lol:

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs all his teammates other than Bennet to go all out crazy bananas on Cipressa and then Sam Bennet should putt the hammer down and unleash hell on Poggio so there is no more than 10 guys going for the sprint ... one can only hope.

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

You don't have to worry about that. He's been a non-factor this year, and it'll continue that way for the rest of the year.

I get the feeling that this will be Gerrans last season. Not the type of guy that would hang around for a few more years and work for better riders. I think only a classic win would change that and maybe convince him to ride longer. But being anonomous if he can find some form only makes him more dangerous because he can still sprint. Lately though he seems to lack the punch he used to have.