108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

Matthews has been getting closer, I agree that he and Degenkolb will be the main dangers to Sagan. No way GVA outsprints those guys. Demare is another one.

GVA has outsprinted Sagan 5 times. If he race is hard enough, I think he can do the same to Matthews and Degenkolb.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

Matthews has been getting closer, I agree that he and Degenkolb will be the main dangers to Sagan. No way GVA outsprints those guys. Demare is another one.

GVA has outsprinted Sagan 5 times. If he race is hard enough, I think he can do the same to Matthews and Degenkolb.

Not in a flat sprint.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

Well, when Sagan follows an attack, he will work with those riders as he does not want to get caught. Gerro on the other side, will never take a single pull regardless of the size of the break and he will rather get caught by the peloton.

BTW I would never dare to compare Sagan to Gerro.

I think you will find that you did precisely that in the previous paragraph.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

Matthews has been getting closer, I agree that he and Degenkolb will be the main dangers to Sagan. No way GVA outsprints those guys. Demare is another one.

GVA has outsprinted Sagan 5 times. If he race is hard enough, I think he can do the same to Matthews and Degenkolb.

Not impossible I suppose but unlikely. GVA might out sprint one of those guys but he won't win a bunch sprint against a few of them. His best sprinting is from a small group. MSR usually goes to a quality sprinter and Cancellara was also a pretty good sprinter on his day at the end of a hard race.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Sagan is the man marked by all and for obvious reasons. So far 2017 he's been crazy good!! So i think(!?) he should attack near the top and hope that who can hang on are Degenkolp, Mathews, GVA or whoever is fast enough to think they have what it takes to beat him in a small group and if so, will work with him those last 3km...
If he goes with Kiwa, Uran, Roglic, any QS, Felline etc he'll not gonna get any love... and will end up in a bunch sprint
Hope Adriatto represents and if so Pozzato ftw...

Matthews has been getting closer, I agree that he and Degenkolb will be the main dangers to Sagan. No way GVA outsprints those guys. Demare is another one.

GVA has outsprinted Sagan 5 times. If he race is hard enough, I think he can do the same to Matthews and Degenkolb.

I could see it in a situation similar to the ones with Sagan, where they'd blunted their sprint by working really hard to keep a group away.

 

[SKSemtex]

So where has Sagan actually higher chance?

1. Bunch sprint with: CAV, GAV, Kristoff, Demare, Bouhanni, Degenkolb, Ewan, Viviani, Colbrelli ......
2. Group of Poggio attackers like: Kiwi, GVA, Alap where the pulls are Sagan 50, GVA 25, Kiwi 25. Alap 0

It is really hard to tell. But I hope that teams without top sprinter will make the Cipressa and Poggio as brutal as possible.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Well, when Sagan follows an attack, he will work with those riders as he does not want to get caught. Gerro on the other side, will never take a single pull regardless of the size of the break and he will rather get caught by the peloton.

BTW I would never dare to compare Sagan to Gerro.

I think you will find that you did precisely that in the previous paragraph.

Perhaps. Obviously what I meant was that I would never dare to put Sagan & Gerro at the same basket of riders. (per their riding style). It's like comparing God and Satan.

While Gerro won some big races, he is a disgrace of cycling and I can't wait for him to be gone. All we fans will remember about him is his wheelsucking and negative riding.

Sagan will go down as a legend without winning another race.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

So where has Sagan actually higher chance?

1. Bunch sprint with: CAV, GAV, Kristoff, Demare, Bouhanni, Degenkolb, Ewan, Viviani, Colbrelli ......
2. Group of Poggio attackers like: Kiwi, GVA, Alap where the pulls are Sagan 50, GVA 25, Kiwi 25. Alap 0

It is really hard to tell. But I hope that teams without top sprinter will make the Cipressa and Poggio as brutal as possible.

That's what they promise to do every year. And then no one attacks until 500m from the top of Poggio. But no surprise. It's impossible for attacker to win it these days.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

So tough to handicap this one, but I'll go:

*****Sagan
****Gaviria, Degenkolb, Matthews
***Kristoff, Colbrelli, Cavendish, Démare
**GVA, Bouhanni, Ewan, Boonen, Trentin, EBH, Viviani, Felline
*Gilbert, Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Roelandts, Kwia, Swift, Bennett

Pretty good. I'd switch Matthews with Demare and I'd give Bouhanni 3 stars although his form is a bit of a question mark for me right now. I need to see how he does today in Danilith - Nokere Koerse.

Similar feelings here. I'm concerned that Sagan will work too hard. I agree with who said that it's not worth it to work hard to win in a small bunch vs a large group for Sagan. Sagan has too big of a target on his back.

*****Degenkolb, Demare, Gaviria, Sagan
****Bouhanni, Matthews, Cavendish, Kristoff, Colbrelli
*** (15% chance it is someone not on this list)

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two. The bigger dangers are probably Kristoff and Degenkolb who have both proven several times that they can put out very impressive efforts at the end of a long day.

Is this considering Demare's performance in PN this year? Stage 1 was stunning.

 

[gospina]

Re: Re:

Sagan will go down as a legend without winning another race.

This! I call my dad almost every other day to give him updates on cycling, from a colombian fan perspective. We discuss upcoming races, tactics, most riders, etc. Who do I talk about the most? who do I text people or show them videos of the most? Peter Sagan. The guy is a rock star! We used to wait for him to win a stage to see what celebration he was going to do. We loved seeing some of his videos, including him showing off his mountain bike skills before he joined the road world. He is LEAGUES above everyone else when it comes to bike handling skills.
He is a phenom and will be the one that I talk to my grankids about. "Yes, I remember growing up with Lemond and Fignon and Hinault and Lucho and Parra. Then it was the dark times with Armstrong. Contador? he was amazing..best panache I have seen for a GC rider..we saw Soler...the great Nairo Quintana..but the Greatest of All time? Peter Sagan! Yes, that great triathlete and mountain biker and stunt man. Did you know he used to ride road bikes and was the World Champ multiple times?"

I want Gaviria to win so badly..but secretly I want Sagan to destroy the field, go solo and do a wheelie on his front wheel while crossing the finish line

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

 

[GambadiLegno]

Re: Re:

Sagan will go down as a legend without winning another race.

This! I call my dad almost every other day to give him updates on cycling, from a colombian fan perspective. We discuss upcoming races, tactics, most riders, etc. Who do I talk about the most? who do I text people or show them videos of the most? Peter Sagan. The guy is a rock star! We used to wait for him to win a stage to see what celebration he was going to do. We loved seeing some of his videos, including him showing off his mountain bike skills before he joined the road world. He is LEAGUES above everyone else when it comes to bike handling skills.
He is a phenom and will be the one that I talk to my grankids about. "Yes, I remember growing up with Lemond and Fignon and Hinault and Lucho and Parra. Then it was the dark times with Armstrong. Contador? he was amazing..best panache I have seen for a GC rider..we saw Soler...the great Nairo Quintana..but the Greatest of All time? Peter Sagan! Yes, that great triathlete and mountain biker and stunt man. Did you know he used to ride road bikes and was the World Champ multiple times?"

I want Gaviria to win so badly..but secretly I want Sagan to destroy the field, go solo and do a wheelie on his front wheel while crossing the finish line

I understand you as a Sagan fan, but although he's a top rider at the moment, there's no comparison beetwen Hinault or Fignon and Sagan.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

I understand you as a Sagan fan, but although he's a top rider at the moment, there's no comparison beetwen Hinault or Fignon and Sagan.

First of all, he's talking about the riders you found memorable. Sagan has been the most memorable rider of this decade, IMHO. And any case it's really hard to argue about who someone else finds memorable.

In terms of achievements, you can't compare Hinault with Fignon and Sagan at the moment, I'll give you that. Hinault was a beast. Won 5 Tours, 9 GTs, 41 GT stages, 5 monuments, 5 GPMs back when that meant something, and the rainbow stripes. Sagan has a long way to go before he gets anywhere close to matching that.

Fignon and Sagan? He's there. I'd probably take Peter Sagan over Laurent Fignon right now, to be honest. Fignon had legendary style but not a quite a palmares to match.

 

[GambadiLegno]

Obviously it depends, but Fignon has won TDF twice, Giro and many stages in grand tours, and MSR twice too...Of course they're different riders but for example, comparing Sagan with Boonen, he's still far from Tom. He has many years to reach Boonen's palmares, but I can't see Sagan winning so much and against so top riders.

Anyway, I like Sagan and he's a nice guy, don't think I have something against him

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs all his teammates other than Bennet to go all out crazy bananas on Cipressa and then Sam Bennet should putt the hammer down and unleash hell on Poggio so there is no more than 10 guys going for the sprint ... one can only hope.

Other scenario is the Flowerboy, A'phil, GVA to attack on Poggio so Peter the Great can just follow their wheels and take the reduced sprint.

Either way, it should be fun to watch.

ANYBODY but Gerrans!

Gerrans is riding well and despite Orica's public protestations he is the rider they expect to feature in the finish - Ewan is a long shot to make the final selection, while Cort has a chance but still has a few doubts - It's telling that Gerrans hasn't ridden MSR since 2013.


You don't have to worry about that. He's been a non-factor this year, and it'll continue that way for the rest of the year.

I get the feeling that this will be Gerrans last season. Not the type of guy that would hang around for a few more years and work for better riders. I think only a classic win would change that and maybe convince him to ride longer. But being anonomous if he can find some form only makes him more dangerous because he can still sprint. Lately though he seems to lack the punch he used to have.

 

[yaco]

A very open race - Believe that Bouhanni will be hard to beat.

 

[SafeBet]

**** Sagan, Demare
*** Gaviria, Degenkolb, Kristoff, GVA
** Matthews, Swift, Bouhanni, Colbrelli
* Cav, Kwia, Wellens, Felline, Trentin, Ewan

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re:

A very open race - Believe that Bouhanni will be hard to beat.

Ugh, anyone but him... Sagan, Gaviria and Démare are the biggest favorites to me

 

[deValtos]

Swift with his first win. I think they'll ride the Poggio really fast this year.

 

[markene2]

I think Colbrelli will win this bike race

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Swift with his first win. I think they'll ride the Poggio really fast this year.

They will. The surface was repaired this week. It's full gas.

 

[Tank Engine]

That Quick-tep team is really strong. I'll go for Gaviria with Sagan and Demare being his closest rivals. Without La Monie or harsh weather conditions, it's going to be a sprinters' paradise.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

Just against those two riders; obviously not 80% chance of winning a bunch sprint against a whole field. Demare isn't an elite sprinter - Sagan is better than him positionally, way more consistent and faster than him. Gaviria's sprint is completely unproven after that kind of distance - also last year he lost concentration when it mattered, showing his lack of experience.

Degenkolb, Kristoff maybe even Bouhanni are a different matter. They can match or beat Sagan's top speed at the end of a long day in the saddle, will most probably be there at the end, and have enough experience to convert that into a win.

 

[Felice Gimondi]

Cavendish would need a miracle to get in shape for MSR. In Tirreno DDD had Boasson Hagen leading Cavendish on stage 6 hoping for a sprint finish. Cavendish could not hold the tempo on the Poggio like hill close to the finish there and has clearly had difficulties with his "climbing" this whole year.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

Just against those two riders; obviously not 80% chance of winning a bunch sprint against a whole field. Demare isn't an elite sprinter - Sagan is better than him positionally, way more consistent and faster than him. Gaviria's sprint is completely unproven after that kind of distance - also last year he lost concentration when it mattered, showing his lack of experience.

Degenkolb, Kristoff maybe even Bouhanni are a different matter. They can match or beat Sagan's top speed at the end of a long day in the saddle, will most probably be there at the end, and have enough experience to convert that into a win.

It isn't unproven. He has won Paris Tours (against Demare).