108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

Just against those two riders; obviously not 80% chance of winning a bunch sprint against a whole field. Demare isn't an elite sprinter - Sagan is better than him positionally, way more consistent and faster than him. Gaviria's sprint is completely unproven after that kind of distance - also last year he lost concentration when it mattered, showing his lack of experience.

Degenkolb, Kristoff maybe even Bouhanni are a different matter. They can match or beat Sagan's top speed at the end of a long day in the saddle, will most probably be there at the end, and have enough experience to convert that into a win.

This doesn't mean much 365 days later. He's learned from that experience - He's mentioned it in interviews. He understands what he did wrong and what he has to do this time.

 

[deValtos]

Where is all the Gaviria hype comming from? I feel like I missed something.

I still think he has a good chance but I don't honestly see what puts him a level above the similarish Demare/Bouhanni/Degenkolb/Mathews/Kristoffs etc ... is it just recent form?

I listened to the cycling podcast today and they had him as the only 5 star rider with Sagan on 4.

 

[DonEsteban]

Re:

Where is all the Gaviria hype comming from? I feel like I missed something.

I still think he has a good chance but I don't honestly see what puts him a level above the similarish Demare/Bouhanni/Degenkolb/Mathews/Kristoffs etc ... is it just recent form?

I listened to the cycling podcast today and they had him as the only 5 star rider with Sagan on 4.

Gaviria's main advantage vs Sagan (and other top riders you mentioned) is his team.

 

[the asian]

Re: Re:

Where is all the Gaviria hype comming from? I feel like I missed something.

I still think he has a good chance but I don't honestly see what puts him a level above the similarish Demare/Bouhanni/Degenkolb/Mathews/Kristoffs etc ... is it just recent form?

I listened to the cycling podcast today and they had him as the only 5 star rider with Sagan on 4.

Gaviria's main advantage vs Sagan (and other top riders you mentioned) is his team.

He's also faster than all the guys mentioned here.

 

[May0maniac]

Yes, but beating guys like Kristoff and Demare in a sprint after a long, hard race isn't just like beating them in a flat sprint, in the 2016 edition of Gent - Wevelgem Demare outsprinted him in the bunch sprint for 5th place and for a few years Kristoff was pretty much unbeatable in a bunch sprint after at least 250km, it's not like a normal sprint stage.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

Just against those two riders; obviously not 80% chance of winning a bunch sprint against a whole field. Demare isn't an elite sprinter - Sagan is better than him positionally, way more consistent and faster than him. Gaviria's sprint is completely unproven after that kind of distance - also last year he lost concentration when it mattered, showing his lack of experience.

Degenkolb, Kristoff maybe even Bouhanni are a different matter. They can match or beat Sagan's top speed at the end of a long day in the saddle, will most probably be there at the end, and have enough experience to convert that into a win.

It isn't unproven. He has won Paris Tours (against Demare).

Not sure how that makes his sprint proven after that kind of distance. He won Paris-Tours with a late attack; it's not the same as a bunch sprint.

 

[carton]

I just think there are so many guys in with a shout here. I can see Sacha Modolo, Caleb Ewan, Niki Arndt, Danny Van Poppel, Elia Viviani, JJ Lobato, or Scott Thwaites, among others, winning this thing if everything breaks just right for them. So many story-lines almost write themselves: Dege comeback, Gaviria breakthrough, Demare redemption, Kristoff re-ascendant, Cavendish returns, Boonen for the movies. I mean, if Julian Vermote or Hector Carretero win this thing I'll be shocked. If Sagan wins I'll be the opposite of shocked. Outside of that (that's a mild overstatement to be sure) it just seems like a wide open race.

 

[kingjr]

@DFA

Right, if anything it's even more impressive than merely winning a sprint.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Heart: Gaviria
Head: Marc Madiot

 

[Orbit501]

Matthew's climbing in PN in that ITT was exceptional! He crashed apparently and still put in a brilliant time. His top end speed doesn't appear to have suffered either. This could be his best chance yet of winning MSR.

I absolutely loved Colbrelli's celebration for his stage win in PN. Would be brilliant if he could win MSR, but I fear it needs to be a greatly reduced sprint for him to win.

Felline looked really lively in TA and has started the season in great form. He needs to go long on the Poggio though with a good group working to hold off the chasing peloton. Any decent sprinters in that group and he only podiums.

I'm most curious about the recover of Demare and Bouhanni because they both DNFed PN. Demare was super strong on the brutal first couple of stages, but I'm not sure why he didn't finish the race. Bouhanni I know was sick but has come back well in Nokere. Obviously MSR is a whole different level though.

I also agree that Sagan is best sitting in wheels for a change and just waiting for a bunch sprint.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think in a bunch sprint Sagan has way more than 30% chance against Demare and Gaviria - after 290km. More like 80% against those two.

Just caught up to this. I think you're vastly overplaying it. 80%? Maybe heads up against Kwiatkowski. 80% is Cipollini at his prime against Giro competition. Maybe. Stuff happens in a sprint. Going too long. Going too late. Getting boxed in. Getting caught behind a crash. Realizing you did too much work earlier. Sport is a little more random than people want it to be.

Just against those two riders; obviously not 80% chance of winning a bunch sprint against a whole field. Demare isn't an elite sprinter - Sagan is better than him positionally, way more consistent and faster than him. Gaviria's sprint is completely unproven after that kind of distance - also last year he lost concentration when it mattered, showing his lack of experience.

Degenkolb, Kristoff maybe even Bouhanni are a different matter. They can match or beat Sagan's top speed at the end of a long day in the saddle, will most probably be there at the end, and have enough experience to convert that into a win.

This doesn't mean much 365 days later. He's learned from that experience - He's mentioned it in interviews. He understands what he did wrong and what he has to do this time.

It's easy to say that when you're sitting down in an interview reviewing the race with a coffee. Not so easy to put it into practice when you're in with a chance of the biggest win of your career, have been in the saddle for nearly seven hours and are physically close to the limit after going all out on the Poggio.

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Matthew's climbing in PN in that ITT was exceptional! He crashed apparently and still put in a brilliant time. His top end speed doesn't appear to have suffered either. This could be his best chance yet of winning MSR.

I absolutely loved Colbrelli's celebration for his stage win in PN. Would be brilliant if he could win MSR, but I fear it needs to be a greatly reduced sprint for him to win.

Felline looked really lively in TA and has started the season in great form. He needs to go long on the Poggio though with a good group working to hold off the chasing peloton. Any decent sprinters in that group and he only podiums.

I'm most curious about the recover of Demare and Bouhanni because they both DNFed PN. Demare was super strong on the brutal first couple of stages, but I'm not sure why he didn't finish the race. Bouhanni I know was sick but has come back well in Nokere. Obviously MSR is a whole different level though.

I also agree that Sagan is best sitting in wheels for a change and just waiting for a bunch sprint.

I wouldn't be unhappy to see Gavaria put the disappointment of last years crash behind him and fulfil his potential here either.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

@DFA

Right, if anything it's even more impressive than merely winning a sprint.

Sure, I agree in many ways it's more impressive, especially from a tactical aspect. But it's not the same as sprinting. Catching riders by surprise and sneaking away by doing 1000w for 600m isn't the same as putting out 1500w for 10 seconds after seven hours - which he would need to do to beat the likes of Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff in a bunch sprint. He's still unproven in that regard.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

Matthew's climbing in PN in that ITT was exceptional! He crashed apparently and still put in a brilliant time. His top end speed doesn't appear to have suffered either. This could be his best chance yet of winning MSR.

I absolutely loved Colbrelli's celebration for his stage win in PN. Would be brilliant if he could win MSR, but I fear it needs to be a greatly reduced sprint for him to win.

Felline looked really lively in TA and has started the season in great form. He needs to go long on the Poggio though with a good group working to hold off the chasing peloton. Any decent sprinters in that group and he only podiums.

I'm most curious about the recover of Demare and Bouhanni because they both DNFed PN. Demare was super strong on the brutal first couple of stages, but I'm not sure why he didn't finish the race. Bouhanni I know was sick but has come back well in Nokere. Obviously MSR is a whole different level though.

I also agree that Sagan is best sitting in wheels for a change and just waiting for a bunch sprint.

Matthews is an interesting one - I think MSR is a big target for him, but it strikes me that it would be wiser to invest in something with more predictable returns. Can't see him winning even from a reduced bunch sprint - of course he could, but so could 10 to 15 others. Maybe needs to go with a small group off the Poggio. Without Degenkolb at Sunweb, he should be looking at RVV, PR, and seeing what he can do there.

Bouhanni should be super motivated; you get the sense that he thought he was going to win last year until his slipped chain.

 

[Breh]

Boonen to take home another victory in his 40th monument.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

Where is all the Gaviria hype comming from? I feel like I missed something.

I still think he has a good chance but I don't honestly see what puts him a level above the similarish Demare/Bouhanni/Degenkolb/Mathews/Kristoffs etc ... is it just recent form?

I listened to the cycling podcast today and they had him as the only 5 star rider with Sagan on 4.

He's probably got more top end speed then those you mention. + super team. + people are recognising his racing smarts - he's not a one trick pony, and you know that if he has the legs, he'll be very well positioned from the 2nd half of the Poggio. That makes him hugely dangerous. Imagine if he still has a couple of teammates left too....which is very likely.

Nonetheless, I agree the hype could be dispelled pretty swiftly after MSR.

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

@DFA

Right, if anything it's even more impressive than merely winning a sprint.

Sure, I agree in many ways it's more impressive, especially from a tactical aspect. But it's not the same as sprinting. Catching riders by surprise and sneaking away by doing 1000w for 600m isn't the same as putting out 1500w for 10 seconds after seven hours - which he would need to do to beat the likes of Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff in a bunch sprint. He's still unproven in that regard.

Are you sure about those watt numbers? I'd like to see the cyclist who can push 1000w for 600m or 1500 for 10 seconds at the end of a race. Seems a bit high to me.

Aside from that, I see your point, but I don't agree with it ;-)

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

@DFA

Right, if anything it's even more impressive than merely winning a sprint.

Sure, I agree in many ways it's more impressive, especially from a tactical aspect. But it's not the same as sprinting. Catching riders by surprise and sneaking away by doing 1000w for 600m isn't the same as putting out 1500w for 10 seconds after seven hours - which he would need to do to beat the likes of Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff in a bunch sprint. He's still unproven in that regard.

Are you sure about those watt numbers? I'd like to see the cyclist who can push 1000w for 600m or 1500 for 10 seconds at the end of a race. Seems a bit high to me.

Aside from that, I see your point, but I don't agree with it ;-)

Those numbers seem slightly overstated yet generally right to me. Gaviria did the final ~260m at Tirreno in 14" averaging 1017W according to Velon, but he went from a little too far out. So I guess something like 1200W for 10" would be the goal, and his Tours attack was likely closer to 800W than 1000W.

 

[sQiD]

Re:

Demare was super strong on the brutal first couple of stages, but I'm not sure why he didn't finish the race.

I also agree that Sagan is best sitting in wheels for a change and just waiting for a bunch sprint.

Demarre pulled out early in order to skip the climbs and have more rest time.

I won't enjoy a Peter's victory in a bunch sprint instead of a late attack on the Poggio. He won't enjoy it either.
He will try to make a move this time and if it dosen't work, he will wait till next year and sit in the wheels.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

@DFA

Right, if anything it's even more impressive than merely winning a sprint.

Sure, I agree in many ways it's more impressive, especially from a tactical aspect. But it's not the same as sprinting. Catching riders by surprise and sneaking away by doing 1000w for 600m isn't the same as putting out 1500w for 10 seconds after seven hours - which he would need to do to beat the likes of Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff in a bunch sprint. He's still unproven in that regard.

Are you sure about those watt numbers? I'd like to see the cyclist who can push 1000w for 600m or 1500 for 10 seconds at the end of a race. Seems a bit high to me.

Aside from that, I see your point, but I don't agree with it ;-)

Totally doable. I have 3s close to 1500w and 10s over 1000w and I'm no WT sprinter by any mean

 

[movingtarget]

I think it might be Matthews time to win but it's an open race as usual.

 

[greenedge]

I don't think Demare can repeat just because it's very hard to at MSR, but he looks to be in amazing form.
My pick for the win is Kristoff then Demare and Gaviria, with Sagan having expended too much energy shutting down an attack by Alaphilippe and Matthews.

 

[wayahead]

Re: Re:

I won't enjoy a Peter's victory in a bunch sprint instead of a late attack on the Poggio. He won't enjoy it either. He will try to make a move this time and if it dosen't work, he will wait till next year and sit in the wheels.

I'm sure he would enjoy it big time :razz: You have too romantic view on Sagan and his real abilities. Attack on Poggio (joke of a hill, you know), been marked, with headwind, it seems to be wrong tactics. MSR is usually won by one perfectly executed shot. He should wait for bunch sprint, sprint-wise he is very good this year, its his best chance.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I won't enjoy a Peter's victory in a bunch sprint instead of a late attack on the Poggio. He won't enjoy it either. He will try to make a move this time and if it dosen't work, he will wait till next year and sit in the wheels.

I'm sure he would enjoy it big time :razz: You have too romantic view on Sagan and his real abilities. Attack on Poggio (joke of a hill, you know), been marked, with headwind, it seems to be wrong tactics. MSR is usually won by one perfectly executed shot. He should wait for bunch sprint, sprint-wise he is very good this year, its his best chance.

It won't be a headwind this year, though. Tail/cross instead and the same on the flat after the Poggio. So the conditions for an attack are definitely better tomorrow than in the past three years.

 

[gerundium]

Re: Re:

I won't enjoy a Peter's victory in a bunch sprint instead of a late attack on the Poggio. He won't enjoy it either. He will try to make a move this time and if it dosen't work, he will wait till next year and sit in the wheels.

I'm sure he would enjoy it big time :razz: You have too romantic view on Sagan and his real abilities. Attack on Poggio (joke of a hill, you know), been marked, with headwind, it seems to be wrong tactics. MSR is usually won by one perfectly executed shot. He should wait for bunch sprint, sprint-wise he is very good this year, its his best chance.

It won't be a headwind this year, though. Tail/cross instead and the same on the flat after the Poggio. So the conditions for an attack are definitely better tomorrow than in the past three years.

a cross / tailwind all along the coast i believe from weather reports. I don't remember in detail the weather the last few years but it could open up the race more.