2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[dgodave]

It probly going to be a terrible day for viewing chateaux and eglises.
.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Agreed Leopard won't do it though. They'll ride a steady tempo with Gerdemann, Fuglslang and Monfort. Yes they will whittle the lead group down but the three together cannot cause as much damages as Szmyd alone if Szmyd has regained his legs after a tough Giro when he was ill (we saw a glimpse of this on Finestre).

not really, Finestre was a bluff. he just controlled it for nibbles, he didn't tear anything apart.

samu isn't a great downhiller anymore for quite some years.

+1 massively overrated descender on this forum he is.

Bring back time bonuses and Valverde might just win it.

Providing hes allowed to race of course.

lol please he wouldn't have won this..
the final itt is not valverde at all. And although a great climber, he is not consistent enough. Even the vuelta he won he was just barely better then gesink and samu in the cols. He'd be in that range of contenders +ITT that doesn't suit him.

Valverde is one of my favorite riders also, but I don't see that.

more kreuziger being tired from the giro and crashes

indeed.
lol so many people disregard the effort from giro.

Samu Sanchex and basso? Are you for real?

lool. They are much better. Basso especially.
I am really intrigued where you have gotten this idea that cadel is such a great High mountains rider..

Again I can't think of a single GT high mountain stage where cadel looked the strongest.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Whether you like it or not Basso outclimbed Evans in the Giro last year. If he produces that level I cannot see Evans beating him. Sanchez was the third best climber last year and I think will be this year. He might be given a slight bit of latitude as well seeing he has lost some time.
I know that there have been questions over their form and condition so they maybe below their best. We will see tonight.

basso beat a sick Evans. On three of the major climbing stages basso either got beaten by a sick Evans or didn't drop him. Evans even said that he was trying to hold a peak from January of which he was coming down during the giro.

 

[Publicus]

Samu Sanchex and basso? Are you for real?

He isn't. I don't even think that's a debatable point.

 

[Publicus]

Ok. I've put the bottle down.
But I can still dream can't I?

Everybody can dream, but eventually you have to wake up. I think Cuddles has a real shot to win the overall if he can keep his losses to a minimum in the mountains (and assuming AC is too tired from the Giro and injured--which seems to be the case).

 

[auscyclefan94]

oh how I can't wait till tonight comes. let the fun begin!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

oh how I can't wait till tonight comes. let the fun begin!

me too! can't wait for CE to be sayin Boom - how you like me now!

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Evans has looked so good to me so far in this tour that I wouldn't be suprised if he dropped Contador and the Schleck brothers on the final climb tonight.
Thoughts???

I’d think he has a better chance to do it now than say next week so hopefully he has a crack at least.

 

[sultanofhyd]

I’d think he has a better chance to do it now than say next week so hopefully he has a crack at least.

He'll crack if he has a crack.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think we're going to see a somewhat uneventful stage, as far as GC contenders go. We'll see riders off the front mid-stage that are far back, and then the Schlecks are going to follow Contador and see what he has in the tank, probably until about 2-3km from the finish. I really don't see much anyone else trying to attack. Maybe Samu, but certainly not Evans. Basso likes stages like this, but I don't think he's got it, and is trying to hang in there and peak for Alpe d'Huez.

As Andre said with VDB and Horner out, Wiggins too, there goes a lot of potential excitement. I didn't expect any of these three to win, but I sure expected them to go for it.

 

[metya77]

I'm just so excited to get this started.

 

[Maxiton]

I think we're going to see a somewhat uneventful stage, as far as GC contenders go. We'll see riders off the front mid-stage that are far back, and then the Schlecks are going to follow Contador and see what he has in the tank, probably until about 2-3km from the finish. I really don't see much anyone else trying to attack. Maybe Samu, but certainly not Evans. Basso likes stages like this, but I don't think he's got it, and is trying to hang in there and peak for Alpe d'Huez.

As Andre said with VDB and Horner out, Wiggins too, there goes a lot of potential excitement. I didn't expect any of these three to win, but I sure expected them to go for it.

This thread's had time to get huge and I haven't caught up. I stopped reading at about page 12 because in my part of the world it's getting late.

I think the Schlecks will want to put Conti to the test if they can. For his part, I think the knee thing is a big fake out. If so he can probably fly up the road whenever he wants and there's nothing much anyone can do to stop him.

It might be smart, though, for him to keep his powder dry for this stage. Whether he is capable of doing that is another question.

I was watching Contador climb in some minor race on YouTube tonight and was once again struck by how light and fluid he looks on the bike, especially on long, steep climbs. In comparison his competitors look heavy and lumbering, almost like they're filled with lead.

Anyway, the stage broadcast starts at 3:30 AM my time. See you in a few hours.

 

[stetre76]

Anyway, the stage broadcast starts at 3:30 AM my time. See you in a few hours.

one of the advantages of living in Europe - going to enjoy a nice lunch while watching the start of the broadcast

 

[spalco]

Wow, 52 pages before the race even started...

 

[sultanofhyd]

Wow, 52 pages before the race even started...

I would say 150 pages by the time they reach the flamme rouge.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

500 posts at 8am on race day - ridiculous or what?

Wow, 52 pages before the race even started...

Already over 500 posts at 8am on race day - ridiculous or what?
Anticipation is so much better .... drool

 

[KassyC]

Hitch,

I've been dying for you to write a stage intro, the ones you did for the Giro were almost better than some of the stages!

If you have already written an intro for this stage (which it sounds like you have) could you pretty pretty please post it!!!!!!!!! I'd love to read it and know others would too!

 

[rainman]

2 jobs for Cav today, win the intersprint at 119 km, then start organising the bus.

Actually realised this is BS. HTC would probably want an early break to mop up the points, and as for the bus it is probably already sorted.
More coffee quick!

 

[blaxland]

A break will be swept up by the last 8kms of climb...then Alberto will launch one of his savage attacks dropping all riders except Andy,Cadel and Gesink.With Cadel winning the stage....Then i woke up.....Keep Dreaming...

 

[just some guy]

Weather seems to be on the improve but some reports saying no rain and 8-10 degree on the summit of Luz Ardiden which feels like 6 -8 degree.

But Humidity: anywhere between 85% and 99% which basically indicates the chance of rain and cold still pretty high.

 

[sultanofhyd]

A break will be swept up by the last 8kms of climb...then Alberto will launch one of his savage attacks dropping all riders except Andy,Cadel and Gesink.With Cadel winning the stage....Then i woke up.....Keep Dreaming...

If Alberto's attack is as savage as it usually is no one will stay with him..

 

[Galic Ho]

The telling thing is the size of this thread already! Another five and a half hours before the racing starts on tv here in Australia and there are 52 pages already.

I normally read all or most of the pages but this is too much to get through this early. I can say that there is no hiding on this stage. Teams will have to work for their leader. Leopard might take up the pace but they won't be alone. Leopard are the ones who have to show strength because they've talked smack for so long. This is theirs to lose, hence they need to back up their talk tonight. Someone will lose time on GC. What Andy does today will reveal more about how this race can expect to transpire after today. Does Leopard set pace? Does their pace drop all the GC rivals team mates? I don't think it will. Next, what happen when the select riders turn up on the last two climbs? Who gets dropped and by whom? Has Andy manned up enough to fill his sack with some nads? In other words, has he learnt that to win he needs to have the killer instinct to attack and leave Franck behind?

If not, Cadel, Basso, Klodena and Samu come into play. Sure Franck looks really good, but if he is hanging on with Andy, it's quite possible Basso at a minimum, if not Evans and Samu will be able to keep tabs on Franck. That also ignores the best rider in the field. Sure his form will speak loudest, but Franck definitely is not better than him when they all are in top notch. Logically it follows that Andy has to drop Alberto, maybe not today, but later on. Yes he does have a handy time gap, but if Alberto drops him or even pulls a handful of seconds back, Schleck has to go for it. Can't rely on his chrono against this pack given the GC times as they lay right now.

Oh and for the love of all things sacred! No more crashes please. My fantasy team has been chewing through transfers cause of crashes. I have a lot of places to catch up tonight. Don't have either of the Schlecks or Samu on my squad but every other major GC guy I have...no Garmin yet but they are joining later. I'm betting on CVV rather than Tommy D or Hesjedal.

 

[blaxland]

If Alberto's attack is as savage as it usually is no one will stay with him..

OK your right....Bring on the Mountains.

 

[Euskaltel!]

I just hope that someone, anyone attacks before the last 2/3km. Surely one of the GC contenders wants to make a statement? i.e. Conti wants to show who's boss, Schleck I or II wants to follow up the rhetoric, Samu wants to show his form, Basso wants to return to 2005...

 

[Cimber]

Sanchez to attack on the decent from Tourmalet? Yes pls

PS: the live broadcast start at 12.15 CET here in Denmark. Lovely. Gonna take half a day off work