2012 Giro d'Italia, May 7th, stage 3: Horsens → Horsens, 190K

[benpounder]

Maybe i'm looking way too much ahead but if cavendish wins today and sky beats bmc by 8 seconds in ttt, cavendish will get maglia rosa

I can see it happening actually

Garmin could be a factor for rasmussen as well too

Stage 4 is a pan flat 32km out and back TTT. Given the riders on the teams, BMC is a bit stronger than Sky, and a bit weaker than Garmin in this discipline. Greenedge will be the spoiler followed closely by RadioShack.

 

[RedheadDane]

Hope that Tyar Farrar takes this stage, seeing as it is is being ridden in hommage of Wouter Weylandt, and Farrar will realy want to win it because of that. But unless Cav has some kind of problem its hard to see past him for the win.

Yeah. Me too! Even though it probably will decrease Alex' chances for taking pink.

This is officially named the WW memorial stage, right?

According to the Danish site 'Feltet.dk'

http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/giro-etape_til_aere_for_weylandt/

 

[Froome19]

Stage 4 is a pan flat 32km out and back TTT. Given the riders on the teams, BMC is a bit stronger than Sky, and a bit weaker than Garmin in this discipline. Greenedge will be the spoiler followed closely by RadioShack.

BMC are in no way stronger than Sky in the TTT.
Greenedge and RSNT indeed will be surprises and Liquigas was my prediction even if thats a bit unlikely, they cant be a surprise considering how they have perfomed in previous Giro TTT.

 

[El Pistolero]

If Thor was in shape BMC would be stronger, but I highly doubt he is. Garmin is going to win.

 

[benpounder]

BMC are in no way stronger than Sky in the TTT.

We will see.

FWIW, here are the team standings after stage 1:

1 Garmin - Barracuda 0:32:21
2 BMC Racing Team
3 Orica Greenedge 0:00:20
4 Radioshack - Nissan 0:00:22
5 Sky Procycling 0:00:26
6 Omega Pharma - Quickstep 0:00:30
7 Vacansoleil - DCM Pro C.Team
8 Astana Pro Team 0:00:38
9 Liquigas - Cannondale 0:00:39
10 Team Saxo Bank 0:00:42

 

[Froome19]

We will see.

FWIW, here are the team standings after stage 1:

1 Garmin - Barracuda 0:32:21
2 BMC Racing Team
3 Orica Greenedge 0:00:20
4 Radioshack - Nissan 0:00:22
5 Sky Procycling 0:00:26
6 Omega Pharma - Quickstep 0:00:30
7 Vacansoleil - DCM Pro C.Team
8 Astana Pro Team 0:00:38
9 Liquigas - Cannondale 0:00:39
10 Team Saxo Bank 0:00:42

Here is my own opinion on how you win a TTT:
60% Riders 40% how they work together.
Sky is all about how to get the minute advantages and they have focused a lot on TTT advantages etc. Whilst BMC is infamous for just doing whatever you want, but i guess after TDF last year it will be tight, I guess we will see.

One thing which has dented Sky's chances in the TTT is swift's injury as he was in great form on the track and the track is perfect for TT and of course he was also practising TP which is basically a short TTT combined with the scratch race which has furthered his endurance as shown by his gold medal in the world champs.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm not sure I agree with their GPM statistics there, because the route would suggest that the GPM is at Yding Skovhøj, so they're obviously doing the gradual drag into Yding then including the Skovhøjvej at the top.

Yding Skovhøj is 1,7km at 5,3%, and has a maximum of 9% rather than the 7% quoted, at least according to this profile.

The height figures seem to match up, but it doesn't take the 5km the Giro's statistics seem to suggest, unless they're taking a parallel road, which I can't see as being the case from the stage map they've shown.

 

[benpounder]

Here is my own opinion on how you win a TTT:
60% Riders 40% how they work together.

While not disputing that in the Team Time Trial how the team works together is crucial, I dont agree with your weighting. Two years ago, we saw Fabian Cancellara drag SaxoBank and brothers Schleck to a fine finish. Similarly without Wiggins, Sky is just darn good. Without Swift, I dont know. On paper, Garmin should take stage 4, but were I to bet, my money would be on Greenedge.

 

[Kwibus]

This is your best post on this forum so far

 

[Kwibus]

The negativity of this forum is insane sometimes...

Hehe very true.
Allthough they are right. These kind of stages ain't interesting to watch... well the last 10k are, but that's it.

It's part of cycling and we can't expect selective tough stages for 3 weeks.

 

[Froome19]

While not disputing that in the Team Time Trial how the team works together is crucial, I dont agree with your weighting. Two years ago, we saw Fabian Cancellara drag SaxoBank and brothers Schleck to a fine finish. Similarly without Wiggins, Sky is just darn good. Without Swift, I dont know. On paper, Garmin should take stage 4, but were I to bet, my money would be on Greenedge.

Indeed but of course Imo Cancellara is an exception. I think you made the point yourself in that without Wiggins Sky is just good and that is exactly why it is so crucial they work together and of course it is the same with BMC (dont know if Phinney can drag a team over 32 km but I highly doubt it). If you are just good then the key is too proportion the work around so that you get the maximum out of your team and of course quick interchanges, handling etc. You may argue these dont matter that much but when you are talking about the minute time differences, for example the cramped times we saw in the tour these take on a whole extra level of significance.

Of course BMC and Sky are relatively equal and as they dont have one rider to drag them around the way the one team is going to beat the other is by utilising these techniques and effectively working as a team.

A great read if its possible is procycling magazine interview with Vaughters where he took the reader through the TDF TTT of Garmin. It truly gives you a valuable insight into the tactics and crucial aspects of TTT and it certainly enabled me to appreciate it much more as i realised how much small things matter in the grand scheme of a TTT.

 

[El Pistolero]

Here is my own opinion on how you win a TTT:
60% Riders 40% how they work together.
Sky is all about how to get the minute advantages and they have focused a lot on TTT advantages etc. Whilst BMC is infamous for just doing whatever you want, but i guess after TDF last year it will be tight, I guess we will see.

One thing which has dented Sky's chances in the TTT is swift's injury as he was in great form on the track and the track is perfect for TT and of course he was also practising TP which is basically a short TTT combined with the scratch race which has furthered his endurance as shown by his gold medal in the world champs.

Not really... They worked well together as a team and controlled the race in Amstel and Luik. The leaders failed, but not the domestiques.

 

[Froome19]

Not really... They worked well together as a team and controlled the race in Amstel and Luik. The leaders failed, but not the domestiques.

I meant in training where there is a much more laid back approach compared to Sky.

 

[togo95]

Start of Serpa tomorrow is uncertain due to hand fracture.
Link

 

[El Pistolero]

As if you know how these guys train?

 

[Random Direction]

Start of Serpa tomorrow is uncertain due to hand fracture.
Link

Wow - I didn't know they had a party (thanks, Babelfish):

José Rodolfo Serpa do not appear tomorrow possible to the start of the third stage of the giro d' Italia. The 33 person whose birthday it is Colombian of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela break its hand at a fall party in the second stage of the Italian etappekoers. After the stage Serpa, which season earlier this the Tour won the Langkawi (UCI 2.HC), the hospital have visited.

 

[Froome19]

As if you know how these guys train?

Yep, I have read enough interviews to indeed know the basic layout and that it is more laidback.
Sky they basically try and turn you into a riding robot where the trainerd tell every minute detail you need to carry out on the bike in training and in races.

In fact one of the Sky science trainers mentioned how guys who have come from the more European teams and not from a track background are not used to being trained and being dripped everything, like they do in Sky.

And in BMC it is obvious that the team seem to take training more "as a go out for a training but if you miss a day or two no one will ever know" etc etc

Of course that can work if the rider works hard and it is in fact the way Bruyneel trains and manages his riders, but it doesnt allow you to focus on the teamwork and exact sciences which are so important in TTT.

 

[RHRH19861986]

Don´t know what´s better... The French "just go riding for 4 or 5 hours", or the Sky approach, "don´t leave out any detail".

Especially younger riders have to make their own experiences, see how their body reacts to different training and other influences.

The best will be a composition of doing it scientificly but listening to the body.

Löfkivist, for example, who has grown up with the "French school", hasn´t improved much with the scientific methods of Columbia and Sky.

It´s all about finding out what works best for the individual rider.

I like the Sky approach, at least much more than e.g. Voeckler´s, who says (don´t know if he speaks the truth) that he oftenly doesn´t even train with a heart rate monitor.

Cycling becomes more and more professional. Tech, nutrition, everything. Some riders take PEDs that aren´t even on the free pharmacy market yet, so if you´re up to date with these things, it won´t be so hard to be up to date with training either.

 

[jsem94]

Completely agree with the above post.

 

[El Pistolero]

Erm, John Lelangue moved to Monaco to be closer to Gilbert and Hushovd, so I very much doubt it

Sky boys would suffer like hell if they went training with Gilbert, especially Cavendish

(Well, not this year's Gilbert )

Most of these guys train apart anyway, in most teams. Besides, BMC is an American team.

 

[dlwssonic]

People should not underestimate BMC for the TTT. people were expecting cadel to lose loads of time in the TTT last year. They have Hushovd, Pinotti, Phinney, Frank and Ballan who will lead the team, however there are a few weak links as this BMC team has quite a lot of climbers. So I don't think they are that bad.
But of course now where near garmin, GE level. I expect sky to do better too.

 

[Random Direction]

GC Contenders After TTT

(posting this before stage 3 which likely bore me)

(warning - technical analysis)

The prologue gives us a good proxy on which to base TTT results for stage four. Taking the total time for the top 6 finishers from each team from the prologue, we can judge the relative (excluding team dynamics) strength of each Giro team in time trials. Using the % difference from the top team, and a 52 km / hour proxy for the top team in the 33.2 km TTT we can then guess the times for each team in the TTT. From this, we can then guess the relative time of each GC contender after the TTT. It will, of course, be wrong, however if betting were allowed where I am, I'd wager a few dollars.

There could be some big time gaps and some contenders quite far back after only four stages. This might lead to some good mountain fireworks as people try to isolate riders and put in some fireworks.

Prologue Place.Team:Time: % behind top: TTT time: TTT Behind: GC Behind (GC Name)

1. GRM: 3912s: 1.000%: 38:18: 0s: +0s (Hesjedal)
2. RNT: 3974s: 1.016%: 38: 55: +36: +66s (Schleck)
3. OGE: 3983s: 1.018%: 39:00: +42s
4. SKY: 3984s: 1.018%: 39:01: +42: +59s (Uran) + 76s (Henao)
5. BMC: 3991s: 1.020%: 39:05: +46s: +41s (Pinotti)
6. OPQ: 3998s: 1.022%: 39:09: +51s
7. LIQ: 4002s: 1.023%: 39:11: +53s: +92s (Basso) + 112 (Szmyd)
8. VCD: 4022s: 1.028%: 39:23: +65s +68s (De Gendt)
9. MOV: 4031s: 1.030%: 39:28: +70s
10. SAX: 4033s: 1.031%: 39:30: +71s
11. RAB: 4036s: 1.032%: 39:31: +73s
12. APP: 4043s: 1.033%: 39:35: +77s
13. AST: 4044s: 1.034%: 39:36: +78s: +85s (Kreuziger)
14. KAT: 4062s: 1.038% 39:47: +88s: +102s (Rodriguez)
15. LTB: 4065s: 1.039%: 39:48: +90s
16. COG: 4082s: 1.043%: 39:58: +102s
17. FDJ: 4090s: 1.046%: 40:03: +107s
18. FAR: 4106s: 1.050%: 40:12: +114s
19. LAM: 4116s: 1.052%: 40:18: +120s: +154s (Cunego) +156s (Scarponi)
20. AND: 4125s: 1.054%: 40:24: +125s: +159s (Serpa) +163s (Rujano)
21. ALM: 4184s: 1.070%: 40:58: +160s: +183s (Gadret)
22. EUS: 4199s: 1.073s%: 41:07: +169s: +195s (Nieve)

(projection will change if riders crash and withdraw - Kristoff and Serpa haven't been removed from calculations yet)

 

[Caruut]

Cool post RD - that would see Alex Rasmussen go into pink.

 

[dlwssonic]

Nice! Thanks for the calculations! lets see if its true.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Cool post. I hope your right; I want to see Hesjedal do well, but he's going to need every second he can get from these TTs