2013 Vuelta a España CQ game

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 11 Time Trial
Cancellara and Martin were too expensive for anyone to pick as non climbers/non sprinters, so the highest scores of the day were those of Afrank and Geraint Too Fast: Nibali + Pozzovivo (and who earmarked him for a high finish in a TT?) for 58 points each.

Guaranteed points
1 Cyivel 403
2 Batchuba 369
3 The Hitch 357
4 Search 340
4 Tuarts 340
6 Karlboss 319
7 Mkind07 317
8 Afrank 316
9 Hilltop Finisher 308
10 Keith James Mc 304
11 Jancouver 293
11 Just Some Guy 293
13 Leadbelly 287
14 Geraint Too Fast 285
15 Minessa 279
16 18-Valve 270
17 Comodoro 246
18 Al Pacino 243
19 MC Mountain 228
20 Yellow Knight 221
21 Vladimir 220
22 Mutschi 217
23 Kazistuta 193
24 Pentacycle 190
25 Karbonkel 156
26 Blues in the Bottle 142
27 Zlev 11 139
28 Oliveira 124
29 DB Coop 106
30 Murali 92
31 Gotland 79
32 Lightbing 70
33 Jpettersen 67
33 Maaaaaaaarten 67
35 Vitapen 57
36 Evans is the Best 55
37 Armchair Cyclist 54
38 Mellow Velo 42
39 Jakob747 26
40 CQ Manager 20
41 The Asian 16

Collective Wisdom team 201

Points projections

Good day for teams with Nibali (+163), Pozzovivo (+107), Roche (+67), Brajkovic (+16), Uran (+14)


Bad day for teams with Horner (-238), Santaromita (-20), Montaguti (-15), Arroyo (-14)

1 Cyivel 1406
2 Search 1346
3 Tuarts 1329
4 18-Valve 1324
5 Batchuba 1289
6 Geraint Too Fast 1279
7 Minessa 1217
8 Afrank 1213
9 Keith James Mc 1198
10 Karlboss 1179
11 MC Mountain 1173
12 Mkind07 1169
13 Jancouver 1150
14 Al Pacino 1135
15 Hilltop Finisher 1122
16 The Hitch 1088
17 Comodoro 1052
18 Mutschi 1012
19 Yellow Knight 955
20 Vladimir 954
21 Leadbelly 922
22 Just Some Guy 861
23 Jpettersen 784
24 Zlev 11 743
25 Kazistuta 726
26 Karbonkel 725
27 Pentacycle 706
28 Gotland 679
29 DB Coop 574
30 Vitapen 561
31 Evans is the Best 537
32 Lightbing 495
33 Maaaaaaaarten 482
34 Mellow Velo 477
35 Oliveira 401
36 Blues in the Bottle 392
37 Armchair Cyclist 335
38 Murali 256
39 Jakob747 254
40 The Asian 252
41 CQ Manager 245

Collective Wisdom team 835

 

[Afrank]

Stage 11 Time Trial
Cancellara and Martin were too expensive for anyone to pick as non climbers/non sprinters, so the highest scores of the day were those of Afrank and Geraint Too Fast: Nibali + Pozzovivo (and who earmarked him for a high finish in a TT?) for 58 points each.

I didn't take Pozzovivo, just Nibali.

 

[murali]

i think it is 18-valve, who had both nibs and pozzo.




I checked some of the top performers, and nibbles was a constant feature among them. For someone who didn't pick nibbles, instead of 3 good performers, they had 4. is the game really about picking 3-4 riders who will earn most of the points?

 

[mutschi]

i think it is 18-valve, who had both nibs and pozzo.




I checked some of the top performers, and nibbles was a constant feature among them. For someone who didn't pick nibbles, instead of 3 good performers, they had 4. is the game really about picking 3-4 riders who will earn most of the points?

It is about how much risk you want to take. You don't need to be that bright to choose Nibali or Valverde or Rodriguez, everyone knows how good they are. It is just a high risk, high reward strategy. While others prefer to spread there points over a number of riders. If one of the big riders gets red early and wins, the game's winner comes from the high risk takers. If the three big ones under perform, the game's winner comes from the other group. TdF the risk takers did well with Froome, and it looks like the have the upper hand again this time with Nibali. Apart from that it is a lot of luck and in hindsight, most of us always look like idiots. For me, the purpose of the game is to have more fun watching it e.g. two of my team were in breakaways and I had someone to cheer for. I also learn a lot more about different riders playing the game. Just enjoy.

 

[murali]

thanks for that advice.

i joined because i was anyway maintaining tabs of what riders were earning. i thought i will join the game just to know a bit more about expectations. My major issue was that i didn't know how to choose the riders.

What I am more interested to know is, how many riders can boost their cq points with just one good GT.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I didn't take Pozzovivo, just Nibali.

As Murali as already reported, that was indeed 18-Valve: I believe the points are correct and I simply read the name from the top of the wrong column.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 12
Only person to pick Philbert, Hilltop Finisher, gets the daily honours for those 70 points. The only others to outscore the red jersey bonus of Nibali were Vladimir (Nibali and Chainel) and Cyivel (Nibali and Rensberg).

Guaranteed points
1 Cyivel 424
2 Hilltop Finisher 378
3 Batchuba 369
4 Tuarts 358
5 The Hitch 357
6 Search 340
7 Karlboss 337
8 Afrank 334
9 Mkind07 317
10 Jancouver 311
11 Leadbelly 305
12 Keith James Mc 304
13 Geraint Too Fast 303
14 Minessa 297
15 Just Some Guy 293
16 18-Valve 288
17 Al Pacino 261
18 Comodoro 246
19 Vladimir 243
20 MC Mountain 238
21 Yellow Knight 221
22 Mutschi 217
23 Pentacycle 200
24 Kazistuta 193
25 Karbonkel 159
26 Blues in the Bottle 142
26 Zlev 11 142
28 Oliveira 127
29 DB Coop 106
30 Murali 102
31 Gotland 79
32 Lightbing 70
33 Jpettersen 67
33 Maaaaaaaarten 67
35 Vitapen 57
36 Evans is the Best 55
37 Armchair Cyclist 54
38 Mellow Velo 42
39 Jakob747 26
40 CQ Manager 20
41 The Asian 16

Collective Wisdom team 201

Too busy to do a projections points today, but no rider lost or gained more than 6 points anyway, so any changes, other than Hilltop's 70 points, will be minor.

 

[murali]

Stage 12
Only person to pick Philbert, Hilltop Finisher, gets the daily honours for those 70 points. The only others to outscore the red jersey bonus of Nibali were Vladimir (Nibali and Chainel) and Cyivel (Nibali and Rensberg).
Too busy to do a projections points today, but no rider lost or gained more than 6 points anyway, so any changes, other than Hilltop's 70 points, will be minor.

did hilltop hit top 10 in projections?

 

[search]

Too busy to do a projections points today, but no rider lost or gained more than 6 points anyway

Santaromita did, dropped from 16th to 32nd in gc.

But he might move up again today

 

[murali]

2 guys lucky with that barguil pick.

santormita will move 2 places up.

i think he can make up in the mountain stages though

 

[search]

I don't think he will go for gc any longer

 

[murali]

I don't think he will go for gc any longer

coutner example: NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel in this year's TdF.

his progression in gc

179 93 72 67 63 59 52 43 25 24 25 25 19 19 20 14 14 13 8 9 9

two solid attacks, and he came from nowhere to top-10.
actual stage positions

Tour de France, Stage 1 : 175
Tour de France, Stage 2 : 75
Tour de France, Stage 3 : 65
Tour de France, Stage 4 : 20
Tour de France, Stage 5 : 76
Tour de France, Stage 6 : 90
Tour de France, Stage 7 : 67
Tour de France, Stage 8 : 46
Tour de France, Stage 9 : 9
Tour de France, Stage 10 : 65
Tour de France, Stage 11 : 106
Tour de France, Stage 12 : 86
Tour de France, Stage 13 : 31
Tour de France, Stage 14 : 61
Tour de France, Stage 15 : 35
Tour de France, Stage 16 : 18
Tour de France, Stage 17 : 22
Tour de France, Stage 18 : 23
Tour de France, Stage 19 : 5
Tour de France, Stage 20 : 19
Tour de France, Stage 21 : 73

Santaromita got unlucky that OPQS cut down the gap by a minute, before someone crashed.

 

[search]

Santaromita lost 9 minutes on purpose yesterday for being allowed to go for a stage win today, while Navarro lost time due to an injury after a crash and improved later on.

There is no point in still going for gc. And he is not capable of getting a decent place anyway, he could gain 20 minutes in a breakaway and still would not finish Top 10.

 

[murali]

apart from valv, every other rider in today's top-10 has contributed points to some team.

I think armchair is going to be in trouble doing all the calculations today/ my moral support is there with you.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

did hilltop hit top 10 in projections?

Frankly, if I had taken the time to reallocate the GC, sprint and KoM points of every rider to be able to answer that, I would have posted the provisional standings.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 13
24 hours late, but congratulations to The Hitch and Jakob747, who share the days spoils through picking Barguil: Jakob747 scored 73% 0f his points thus far through Barguil today. 3rd on the day, CQ Manager, also got more than 70% of his points in this stage, through Nocentini, Coppel and Txurruka.

Stage 14
Geraint Too Fast is top scorer: he has Nibali, the other team with Ratto, Mellow Velo, does not.

Guaranteed points
1 Cyivel 501
2 The Hitch 454
3 Geraint Too Fast 452
4 Tuarts 440
5 Hilltop Finisher 413
5 Karlboss 413
7 Afrank 410
8 Batchuba 399
9 Jancouver 388
10 Leadbelly 381
11 Minessa 373
12 18-Valve 367
13 Search 346
14 Mkind07 345
15 Keith James Mc 339
16 Al Pacino 337
17 Vladimir 319
18 Just Some Guy 318
19 Comodoro 281
20 MC Mountain 258
21 Mutschi 242
22 Yellow Knight 222
23 Pentacycle 205
24 Kazistuta 198
25 Karbonkel 167
26 Zlev 11 153
27 Blues in the Bottle 152
28 Oliveira 127
29 Mellow Velo 122
30 DB Coop 111
31 Murali 102
32 Jakob747 96
33 Jpettersen 92
34 Gotland 91
35 Maaaaaaaarten 82
36 Lightbing 75
37 CQ Manager 69
38 Vitapen 62
39 Evans is the Best 60
40 Armchair Cyclist 54
41 The Asian 26

Collective Wisdom team 216


Provisional standings to follow in the morning: I suspect I may have reclaimed the lanterne rouge that I won in the Tour.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Ratto . I never should've doubted him.

 

[Cyivel]

It will be interesting to see the provisional standings, wonder if I'm still leading now The Big Bad Booty Basso has pulled out.

 

[The Hitch]

It will be interesting to see the provisional standings, wonder if I'm still leading now The Big Bad Booty Basso has pulled out.

Looks like 3rd place G might stick up a challenge. Cant speak for me though, i haven't the faintest clue what my team was.

Ratto . I never should've doubted him.

Well done. You seem to be quite good at these games.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

I'm just lucky. Even Cadel is winning races now.

 

[karlboss]

I was counting on LLS for 2 stage wins, and here he was primed for his first and now he's out, and Basso also out. Not a good day for me.

 

[The Hitch]

I remember now why I forgot what my team was. I spent half my budget on Betancur and the rest was just cheap riders I could fit around him. This was half an hour before the deadline. A few minutes after the deadline search told me it was common knowledge that Betancur was ill and wans't going to do much in the Vuelta.

My mind then did one of those -forget the terrifying experiences, thingies.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I remember now why I forgot what my team was. I spent half my budget on Betancur and the rest was just cheap riders I could fit around him. This was half an hour before the deadline. A few minutes after the deadline search told me it was common knowledge that Betancur was ill and wans't going to do much in the Vuelta.

My mind then did one of those -forget the terrifying experiences, thingies.

Betancur was a popular pick with those who submitted their teams up to about the Thursday, and then I suddenly found I was no longer adding names to his column in the last couple of days as his lack of ambition became clear.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Projected points to stage 14
1 Tuarts 1455
2 Cyivel 1362
3 Geraint Too Fast 1357
4 Hilltop Finisher 1349
5 18-Valve 1284
6 Batchuba 1241
7 Search 1230
8 Jancouver 1197
9 Afrank 1165
10 Mkind07 1155
11 The Hitch 1130
12 Minessa 1123
13 Karlboss 1091
14 Vladimir 1088
15 Keith James Mc 1078
16 Al Pacino 1014
17 Leadbelly 977
18 Just Some Guy 971
19 Comodoro 906
20 MC Mountain 890
21 Mutschi 776
22 Karbonkel 768
23 Yellow Knight 746
24 Pentacycle 716
25 Zlev 11 678
26 Lightbing 629
27 Jpettersen 611
28 DB Coop 597
29 Kazistuta 585
30 Maaaaaaaarten 571
31 Mellow Velo 469
32 Blues in the Bottle 440
33 Gotland 430
34 CQ Manager 401
35 Evans is the Best 395
36 Vitapen 393
37 Oliveira 365
38 Armchair Cyclist 337
39 Murali 308
40 Jakob747 297
41 The Asian 268

Collective Wisdom team 740

Not surprisingly, teams that include Nibali are congregated at the top, but of the top ten, Hilltop, Batchuba and Mkind07 instead have Horner, and Search manages 7th place without either of the top two.

 

[murali]

Betancur was a popular pick with those who submitted their teams up to about the Thursday, and then I suddenly found I was no longer adding names to his column in the last couple of days as his lack of ambition became clear.

I think it was on thursday that a news link appeared that he was sick, and he was looking at vuelta only as a way to recover his form. If betancur was fit, i think most of the teams will be having him, and we would have a scenario where the race leader is in wisdom team.


btw, how many people were forced to change the team in the last moment. i know i am one of them.