2014 Tour de France, Stage 16: Carcassonne–Bagnères-de-Luchon (237.5 Km)

[Dazed and Confused]

Love descent finishes. After cobbles and crosswind stages (with wind ffs), this is probably my favorite.

ag2r must put serious pressure on Pinot here.

A couple of good opportunities within the first 25km to get a solid break going as well.

Nibali could drop everybody on Port de Balès and gain 30s on the descent. I think he should have a go. Why not? Especially if its good weather.

Looking forward to it.

 

[oronet commander]

Descent is not actually all that technical. Mostly pretty fast and straight after you get down the first few switchbacks.

Cannot agree: it isn't killer but it's very fast, with switchbacks in the first and last thirds, very narrow road, rough asphalt in many places that changes many times when passing by some hamlets. Pinot is gonna hate it...

 

[Rollthedice]

Don't think Pinot will sleep too good tonight.

 

[SKSemtex]

What a pity this hill is too much for Sagan. I would love to see him descanding for the stage win.

FAST & FURIOUS

 

[Dr. Juice]

Next year they should include a descent finish after a tough mountain stage. I like the finish in Morzine after climbing the Joux Plane. Which has a very technical descent.

 

[stetre76]

wondering what Pinot is doing on today's rest day...

He didn't look confident on the last descents at all, even though he did far better than the years before.
Still, I am afraid that especially tomorrow's stage with the descent to the finish might cost him one or two places in the GC.

 

[murali]

will Nibali beat Tony in the final ITT change your point of view?

i can understand that u are a Nibali fan and all. but Nibali beating Martin? unless panzer is out of shape due to a crash or something, Nibali beating panzer would simply mean that clinic will be set on fire by Nibali this year instead of Froome.

so relax with your fanboyisms.


Thanks Afrank for the stage thread. This has a win for break written all over it, esp with the absence of AC and purito's bad shape.
I think Majka, Purito and Tommy V will fight hard to enter the break.

I think that Bardet has decided to attack in the descents to make some time. Nibali seems to be happy to follow bardet's wheels now.

i just hop tht Nibali doesnt do something stupid in the descent and lose the only tdf win he can ever get.

 

[tomorrow]

What a pity this hill is too much for Sagan. I would love to see him descanding for the stage win.

FAST & FURIOUS

it really is quite tough, but that doesn't necessarily be a problem if he's in a break.. He did win one similar stage in TdS 3 years ago, I think, the exact same way. In a break, he got to cat 1 climb third or fourth from the break + Cunego attacked peloton and got in front of the whole break, then sagan descending without any fear and erasing 30s or more on the descent on Cunego, who is quite good descender himself.

However, to repeat this, there would have to be suitable companions in the break for him, and the peloton would have to let the break go throughout the stage, because the top dogs would go minutes faster than sagan, so he will need at least 4,5 minutes at the botom of the climb, if not more.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Sagan to finally get his win.

 

[tomorrow]

Sagan to finally get his win.

well, it would certainly be fun if he really won in stage 16, but as I said, there're quite some preconditions that would have to be met

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Majka could double up here. He and Rodriguez need to be in the break for the KOM and on form Majka would be over the top with a decent gap from anyone else in the break. Maybe Voeckler can pick him up on the run-in - does Voeckler ever get beaten here ?

 

[notrolfsorensen]

Majka could double up here. He and Rodriguez need to be in the break for the KOM and on form Majka would be over the top with a decent gap from anyone else in the break. Maybe Voeckler can pick him up on the run-in - does Voeckler ever get beaten here ?

Majka is a horrible descender and would need more than a minute on everybody at the top if he is to win again.

 

[SKSemtex]

I have just checked the betting site and and spilak is 51/1 and sagan 29/1.

Sounds crazy. For me it looks like quite good profile for Spilak

Anyhow this should be Purito versus Majka from breakway.

 

[mrhender]

Majka is a horrible descender and would need more than a minute on everybody at the top if he is to win again.

Agree.. I don't think they will put him in the break, he's more suited to the MTF..
More likely they will put Rogers out there -He would have a fair chance with his descending skill and also he is a pretty good climber..

Regarding the polka-dots we will likely see Rodriugez out there tomorrow.
But he will waste a lot of energy and Majka with fresher legs will take the jersey later on IMO..

 

[xanadu]

The usual suspects will be chasing KOM points. As for the podium contenders, they may jump aroind a bit but as long as everyone remains upright i cant see leaderboard being disturbed too much.

 

[sir fly]

This stage could bring some surprises.
Comes after the rest day, very long and not easy at all.
I'm expecting changes in the GC.

 

[cineteq]

And him winning a stage that ends with a descent is going to settle that?

Of course not. It was about extending his lead on every stage, so the ITT wouldn't have mattered.

 

[manafana]

a rest day can't wait for this stage the battle of France is really interesting me and who comes off the rest day the best.

 

[Jerkovin]

What a pity this hill is too much for Sagan. I would love to see him descanding for the stage win.

FAST & FURIOUS

It's incredibly tough, but not impossible depending on the rest of the field. Many may well be saving themselves for Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see if he tries anyway or saves himself for the flat stages. He looked much better in yesterday's sprint than the sorry excuse for a sprint on stage 12.

 

[Carols]

will Nibali beat Tony in the final ITT change your point of view?

Yes it would send me to that dreaded subforum Tony is very strong, unless he has a problem there is no way Nibs should beat him IMO.

 

[cineteq]

Yes it would send me to that dreaded subforum Tony is very strong, unless he has a problem there is no way Nibs should beat him IMO.

Exactly. The voice of reason.

 

[Escarabajo]

Valverde to attack on the last climb without looking back. Nibali to chase after him by un-clipping one shoe and pedaling with just one leg to show the world that he is the worthy winner.

The reality will be that Nibali will just follow wheels. No need to do anything risky here. Maybe AG2R will take advantage of that last descend in order to distance Pinot.

 

[jens_attacks]

for stage win: voeckler/majka/rogers

for gc: nibali, peraud and bardet to fly in the sunset

 

[djpbaltimore]

This is Nibali's stage to show his descending skills.

I doubt it. As it looks now, the only way Nibali loses the race is a crash. I think he is pragmatic enough to know that taking any risk on the descent is a tactical mistake.

 

[VeloHuman]

It's incredibly tough, but not impossible depending on the rest of the field. Many may well be saving themselves for Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see if he tries anyway or saves himself for the flat stages. He looked much better in yesterday's sprint than the sorry excuse for a sprint on stage 12.

If he gets into a break, the competition on the last climb won't be nearly as tough as it would be if he came through with the pack. He's got a shot. Kwiatkowski might too.