2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[jens_attacks]

purito starts his journey to the ardennes triple.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Fleche I think needs someone whose "climbing ability to sprinting ability ratio" is no more biased in favour of sprinting than that of a Simon Gerrans. I just don't see how Degenkolb holds the wheel of Valverde, Purito, Martin and co.

Degenkolb would be a super middle weight if he was a boxer, which really isn't ideal for the Mur de Huy. He's between 10 and 17 kgs heavier than the main contenders. He's very good on hills for a sprinter, but sprinters who can climb a bit don't win Fleche.

Ok, I understand your point about La Flèche, but I still think that if he tries then he can muster a top-10. However Amstel Gold is very suited to him. If Sagan can finish 3rd here, then Degenkolb can also, and that was before the start line was moved. And I think a 'sprinter who can climb a bit' is seriously underestimating a rider who dropped Valverde on the climb to Hatta.

 

[Mr.White]

Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

And also this hype about Dumoulin, when he become a classics specialist, i sort of missed that?

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Come one, dude. Degenkolb will not even get into the top 50 in Flèche Wallone. It's a climbers race. Contador was 3rd there in same time as the winner Cadel Evans. Lightness and acrobatic abilities is the key to the race. It's for Henao, Moreno, Rodríguez, Valverde, Martin and that type of riders.

Even Cauberg is way to much. Matthews would be a better bid for the Amstel Gold Race with the new finish, but then the pace has to be slow up the hill.

 

[The Barb]

This is perfectly suited to Michael Matthews and he is coming into his carer peak nicely. I just hope Orica will shape all their plans around him. Rather than attacking, I'd like to see them have Gerrans and Weening marshall him up the Cauberg and then bury themselves to pull back any small deficit for him over the top of the Cauberg,

 

[SeriousSam]

How much does Degenkolb weigh. Like 80kg? Has anyone ever won any of the Ardennes at that weight?

 

[Pentacycle]

Re:

How much does Degenkolb weigh. Like 80kg? Has anyone ever won any of the Ardennes at that weight?

Museeuw and Zabel have won AGR a couple of years before they moved to the Cauberg. But now it's all guys <70 kg who challenge for victory.

 

[Netserk]

I'd guess Museeuw wasn't far off.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

This is perfectly suited to Michael Matthews and he is coming into his carer peak nicely. I just hope Orica will shape all their plans around him. Rather than attacking, I'd like to see them have Gerrans and Weening marshall him up the Cauberg and then bury themselves to pull back any small deficit for him over the top of the Cauberg,

I think the race is too hard for Matthews. Even if he makes it to the foot of the Cauberg he'll get dropped, and no-one is going to pull back even a small deficit over the top. If they had the strenghh needed to pull back a small deficit, they wouldn't have got dropped in the first place.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

This is perfectly suited to Michael Matthews and he is coming into his carer peak nicely. I just hope Orica will shape all their plans around him. Rather than attacking, I'd like to see them have Gerrans and Weening marshall him up the Cauberg and then bury themselves to pull back any small deficit for him over the top of the Cauberg,

Matthews is a classy rider, but contending in such a hilly classic would be a huge step up for him. Orica will plan their race around Gerrans, he's the guy with a proven record in such races. I can't see why his odds are that much longer.

Since there haven't been any Ardennes classics yet, it's a difficult one to pick apart from the obvious contenders: Valverde, Gerrans, Kwiatek and Phil come to mind first, maybe Rui Costa. JRod will do well, but I can't see him coming to the finish without anybody who can sprint better than him on a flattish finish.

I don't know if Dumoulin is being hyped. I'd like to see him go at some distance from the finish. It would definitely liven the race up. I wouldn't pick him as a main contender though.

 

[Velolover2]

Poels is an outsider. They can't just let him go. He can top 5 all the Ardennes.

I think the finale is a little bit too easy to Henao. Then he has to attack from the buttom of Cauberg. Such an attack would also be good for the likes of the Katusha triplets and Valverde. But bad for a guy like Gerrans.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Orica will plan their race around Gerrans, he's the guy with a proven record in such races. I can't see why his odds are that much longer.

I'd say its solely to do with his injured elbow and its slower than expected recovery (although I am not sure why a 34yo would be expected to recover that quickly anyway). I expect L-B-L to be his target for the week and am hoping he will ride for Matthews at Amstel.
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... ril-163032

 

[hfer07]

Cunego to revive from the dead yard & win it in an outstanding fashion



(this only occurs in a parallel universe)

 

[gunara]

Sorry if this has been covered, but what's up with Jelle Vanendert? Is he injured? Did he finish Pais Vasco? Can't find him in final GC

 

[Wallenquist]

Re:

Sorry if this has been covered, but what's up with Jelle Vanendert? Is he injured? Did he finish Pais Vasco? Can't find him in final GC

He DNS in final time trial as planned, building up for Ardennes.

 

[gunara]

Re: Re:

Sorry if this has been covered, but what's up with Jelle Vanendert? Is he injured? Did he finish Pais Vasco? Can't find him in final GC

He DNS in final time trial as planned, building up for Ardennes.

Thanks. Hope for good shows from him and Wellens then...

 

[SeriousSam]

What has Dumoulin done that people think he could win one of these?

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Poels is an outsider. They can't just let him go. He can top 5 all the Ardennes.

I think the finale is a little bit too easy to Henao. Then he has to attack from the buttom of Cauberg. Such an attack would also be good for the likes of the Katusha triplets and Valverde. But bad for a guy like Gerrans.

Poels so far has always failed big time during the Ardennes classics. Well the ones that are actually hard races and no F-W which isn't much of a hard race, but just a sprint uphill at the end.

 

[Noverca]

Re:

What has Dumoulin done that people think he could win one of these?

Well, he became twentieth last year, which shows the terrain could suit him. Did well at uphill finishes in Canada too and obviously won a very hilly time trial against the likes of possible contenders like Purito, Henao, Felline, Kwiatkowski, etc. last week. Of course a time trial is something different than a classic like AGR, but it at least shows good form.

He also is a year older now. I believe he has grown and could be a potential winner of this race. Don't think he is going to win this years' edition, but I certainly see him as one of the outsiders.

 

[trevim]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: Amstel Gold Race - April 19 - 25

Now on to the glorified uphill sprints

Seriously though, I still hope for some nice racing... Starting with some big names attacking on the Keutenberg: Rui Costa I'm looking at you! (Also Purito on La Redoute)

 

[Asero831]

In this race, no way GVA will be dropped unless he sacrifice himself for Gilbert. But they already have Samu to do it. GVA is a darkhorse here. At what part will Sagan gets dropped?

 

[WillemS]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: Amstel Gold Race - April 19 - 25

Now on to the glorified uphill sprints

Seriously though, I still hope for some nice racing... Starting with some big names attacking on the Keutenberg: Rui Costa I'm looking at you! (Also Purito on La Redoute)

The thing with the Gold Race is that the terrain is actually perfect for punchy attackers, but it's not hard enough to to make those punchy attackers doubt their final uphill sprint, so they all wait. The won't risk it, given the lack of information about the comparative form. If the Gold Race were to be scheduled after Liege, then we would probably see more attacks by riders with less confidence in their final push.

 

[Asero831]

As for Valverde, all he have to do is follow Purito's wheel ala San Sebastian

 

[greenedge]

Re: Re:

Yep, will also be interesting to see what kind of form Gerrans has - I guess that the Ardennes has come just a bit too soon for him.

Out of all the Ardennes races, AGR suits him the most though. For that purpose he should focus on trying to win here, as LBL has too much climbing, climbing that he has not had enough of this year.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

In this race, no way GVA will be dropped unless he sacrifice himself for Gilbert. But they already have Samu to do it. GVA is a darkhorse here. At what part will Sagan gets dropped?

Is Sagan confirmed as riding? He is still a question mark on procyclingstats....