2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Fleche I think needs someone whose "climbing ability to sprinting ability ratio" is no more biased in favour of sprinting than that of a Simon Gerrans. I just don't see how Degenkolb holds the wheel of Valverde, Purito, Martin and co.

Degenkolb would be a super middle weight if he was a boxer, which really isn't ideal for the Mur de Huy. He's between 10 and 17 kgs heavier than the main contenders. He's very good on hills for a sprinter, but sprinters who can climb a bit don't win Fleche.

Gerro wont have legs yet.

Atm, if Sagan wanted to go to the ardennes, he could win here, he wont. But Matthews can hold the wheels if the race works out for him. He can pump Valerde if they come in together. I also like the Pole Kwiata... but he is a bit bigger, if only one inch, 3lbs, if it is only a few I could see Gerro/Matthews being neck and neck with him, but if it came in quick with more riders in the decimated group, Matthews would be the only one who could beat him in a flat out drag, but Matthews has lost about 3lbs, so he does not have the raw terminal velocity he had when he was winning field bunch sprints in Vuelta.

 

[search]

Re:

Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

well, Degenkolb was 4th in 2012, and he is a way better rider now. I am sure he could.

 

[Wallenquist]

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Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

well, Degenkolb was 4th in 2012, and he is a way better rider now. I am sure he could.

But it was not AGR but the Worlds, different race, different pace. He won a sprint from a group of around 30 riders, wont happen in AGR.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

Dan Martin will take this in a similar way to what Gilbert did last year. He will then take LBL the following Sunday.

 

[Oliver]

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Sorry if this has been covered, but what's up with Jelle Vanendert? Is he injured? Did he finish Pais Vasco? Can't find him in final GC

He DNS in final time trial as planned, building up for Ardennes.

Thanks. Hope for good shows from him and Wellens then...

+ Gallopin

Lotto could have a good team.

 

[Vesica]

Watch the Wellens/Gallopin combi. They were already strong together in MSR.

 

[ray j willings]

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Lets see if Gilbert can get back his wonderful form of a few years ago. That really was something special.
Valverde will be heavily marked. He will have to wheel suck until the end. He is a tactical master.

I guess you are joking but i tell you one thing. Of course Valverde will be heavily marked, like he has been all his career, and do you know why? Because he is the fu... master of this kind of races. Valverde has been winning and podiumed since Gilbert was a boy and he will be doing it after Gilbert had retired. Gilbert has had 2 or 3 good years meanwhile Valverde has mainteined his level all his career. And he doesnt win more because everybody is looking at him always. Its very dificult to win when you are fighting against everybody.

You have to admit "that year" Gilbert was untouchable. I agree with your views on Valverde.
I hate the wheel sucking tag that was given to him. I think the last couple of years he has been more aggressive and tactically maybe not the smartest. At last years Vuelta he attacked some of those climbs from the off.
Like I said in another post, It would be great to see him get a big GT win, he's had his share of bad luck.

 

[greenedge]

Valverde has already won a big GT. He's had bad luck, but other factors have played a part- like not riding for 2 years...

 

[SkyTears]

the most boring group of races, bring in the Giro faster !!!

 

[HelloDolly]

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Poels is an outsider. They can't just let him go. He can top 5 all the Ardennes.

I think the finale is a little bit too easy to Henao. Then he has to attack from the buttom of Cauberg. Such an attack would also be good for the likes of the Katusha triplets and Valverde. But bad for a guy like Gerrans.

Poels so far has always failed big time during the Ardennes classics. Well the ones that are actually hard races and no F-W which isn't much of a hard race, but just a sprint uphill at the end.

I presume Hanao, Poels, Nieve & Kennaugh are riding for SKY ?? This is a strong enough team for at least two to be there at the end and one to sacrifice for the other ....Maybe for Henao

But I think its between Valverde & Gilbert as per usual

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

In this race, no way GVA will be dropped unless he sacrifice himself for Gilbert. But they already have Samu to do it. GVA is a darkhorse here. At what part will Sagan gets dropped?

I think he will sacrifice himself for Phil...Gilbert HAS to be an outright leader at Amstel.


As of the boringness,I hope Ardennes will be nore fun than last 2 years,that was awful!

 

[SafeBet]

As for Dumoulin, it's more hope than hype on my part.
Thing is it's hard to find someone to cheer for amongst the top contenders cause basically all of them tend to wait for the final.

 

[DFA123]

I don't want to tempt fate, but think we might see a winning attack before the Cauberg this year. It's such a great route now for a break to succeed with all the street furniture and narrow roads towards the end, that it's ridiculous how many strong riders normally wait for the Cauberg only to get beaten by Gilbert.

Guys like Dumoulin, Kelderman, Costa, Gallopin and Mollema should all try to go much earlier, because they've got the engines to stay away on such technical roads, and they're not going to beat Gilbert, Valverde, Kwiat or Gerrans in a drag race from the bottom of the Cauberg.

 

[dirkprovin]

Matthews was 12th last year, obviously as support/2nd option to Gerrans, so that indicates he's capable of 'being there' at the finish of AGR. Amstel has been the Ardennes race where Gerrans has the most podiums but for various reasons (like 'dickering around/playing games last year) 3rd has been his best. He's bypassed Fleche the past few years; partly to concentrate on Liege and partly due to the Mur being not a particularly favourable finish. Albasini has plenty of top 10s at Fleche with a best of 2nd in 2012 so he will be OGE's main man there.

 

[Asero831]

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Matthews was 12th last year, obviously as support/2nd option to Gerrans, so that indicates he's capable of 'being there' at the finish of AGR. Amstel has been the Ardennes race where Gerrans has the most podiums but for various reasons (like 'dickering around/playing games last year) 3rd has been his best. He's bypassed Fleche the past few years; partly to concentrate on Liege and partly due to the Mur being not a particularly favourable finish. Albasini has plenty of top 10s at Fleche with a best of 2nd in 2012 so he will be OGE's main man there.

Not quite sure if he really supported Gerrans since he is also supported by Orica team. Until the final climb, Clark and Weening are still there. The fact that he is not there when Gerrans/Kwiat/Valverde are making the chase to Gilbert means that only the excellent punchers will feature in the finish line.

If you establish 10 seconds gap on the climb, no way you are going to get catched as it is hard to organize a chase with 1-2kms left. 2014 AGR, Worlds and Lombardia are prime examples of these. You can also refer to San Sebastian as proof that it is hard to organize a chase after a tough climb.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: Re:

Matthews was 12th last year, obviously as support/2nd option to Gerrans, so that indicates he's capable of 'being there' at the finish of AGR. Amstel has been the Ardennes race where Gerrans has the most podiums but for various reasons (like 'dickering around/playing games last year) 3rd has been his best. He's bypassed Fleche the past few years; partly to concentrate on Liege and partly due to the Mur being not a particularly favourable finish. Albasini has plenty of top 10s at Fleche with a best of 2nd in 2012 so he will be OGE's main man there.

Not quite sure if he really supported Gerrans since he is also supported by Orica team. Until the final climb, Clark and Weening are still there. The fact that he is not there when Gerrans/Kwiat/Valverde are making the chase to Gilbert means that only the excellent punchers will feature in the finish line.

If you establish 10 seconds gap on the climb, no way you are going to get catched as it is hard to organize a chase with 1-2kms left. 2014 AGR, Worlds and Lombardia are prime examples of these. You can also refer to San Sebastian as proof that it is hard to organize a chase after a tough climb.

Yep.

Question is, how many riders will establish a gap? Can anyone drop Valverde with his current form? Can anyone stay on Valverde's wheel when he attacks? (Yes, he will attack).

 

[Asero831]

The thing with Valverde is that he is always isolated for AGR and LBL races. Movistar does have the enough support during hilly classics.

 

[Brullnux]

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Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

well, Degenkolb was 4th in 2012, and he is a way better rider now. I am sure he could.

But it was not AGR but the Worlds, different race, different pace. He won a sprint from a group of around 30 riders, wont happen in AGR.

But still, he should give it a try. Next year maybe, or as soon as he trains for it. IMO he is a much better rider than Matthews, he's a better sprinter, much better over cobbles and not that far behind on the climbs.

 

[the asian]

Cauberg is Gilbert's hill and this is his race.

He is looking good this year for a 4th Amstel win.

It will be interesting to see Gerrans form after the comeback, and do think this is a tad too difficult for Matthews at this point. In another couple of years he should be ready to challenge.

The Obvious other contenders will be Piti,Kwiat,Gallopin & perhaps the way Katusha are riding this season Kolobnev or Caruso.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

Really want Valverde to win at least one of them, preferably Liege.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

And also this hype about Dumoulin, when he become a classics specialist, i sort of missed that?

Attacked in last years final. Did very well in the Canadian classics. Showed in the Pais Vasco ITT that he can handle very steep hills. Because he won most of the time in the 2nd part of the ITT which figured the Aia 21% climb.
Dumoulin can ride hilly classics. If nothing strange happens, you'll see

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

Climb to Hatta is 300m long, Cauberg is 1.200m, it's a huge difference. And no, he can't finish 3rd like Sagan. Sagan climbed much better back then.

well, Degenkolb was 4th in 2012, and he is a way better rider now. I am sure he could.

But it was not AGR but the Worlds, different race, different pace. He won a sprint from a group of around 30 riders, wont happen in AGR.

But still, he should give it a try. Next year maybe, or as soon as he trains for it. IMO he is a much better rider than Matthews, he's a better sprinter, much better over cobbles and not that far behind on the climbs.

Yes he is better rider than Matthews, no doubt about that, but not for this race. Matthews is 10kg lighter and much more suited for Cauberg

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

I'd quite like to see Degenkolb here, we saw what he can do on a steep uphill, so he could be a factor in this and La Flèche if he participates. He couldn't win Liege, though. Felline will be good here. If he managed to out sprint Matthews then he surely is a better bet than him? Especially considering he finished about 35th in GC at Pais Vasco, and got a top 10 up the Col d'Ospedale, so he can climb.

Fleche I think needs someone whose "climbing ability to sprinting ability ratio" is no more biased in favour of sprinting than that of a Simon Gerrans. I just don't see how Degenkolb holds the wheel of Valverde, Purito, Martin and co.

Degenkolb would be a super middle weight if he was a boxer, which really isn't ideal for the Mur de Huy. He's between 10 and 17 kgs heavier than the main contenders. He's very good on hills for a sprinter, but sprinters who can climb a bit don't win Fleche.

Gerro wont have legs yet.

Atm, if Sagan wanted to go to the ardennes, he could win here, he wont. But Matthews can hold the wheels if the race works out for him. He can pump Valerde if they come in together. I also like the Pole Kwiata... but he is a bit bigger, if only one inch, 3lbs, if it is only a few I could see Gerro/Matthews being neck and neck with him, but if it came in quick with more riders in the decimated group, Matthews would be the only one who could beat him in a flat out drag, but Matthews has lost about 3lbs, so he does not have the raw terminal velocity he had when he was winning field bunch sprints in Vuelta.

Maybe in 2012-2013 form. Nowadays he wouldnt come even close

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I don't want to tempt fate, but think we might see a winning attack before the Cauberg this year. It's such a great route now for a break to succeed with all the street furniture and narrow roads towards the end, that it's ridiculous how many strong riders normally wait for the Cauberg only to get beaten by Gilbert.

Guys like Dumoulin, Kelderman, Costa, Gallopin and Mollema should all try to go much earlier, because they've got the engines to stay away on such technical roads, and they're not going to beat Gilbert, Valverde, Kwiat or Gerrans in a drag race from the bottom of the Cauberg.

I think the route didn't really change and there was no big attack last year. I really hope that someone like Kelderman, Costa, ... wins but I just don't think it will happen

 

[Tank Engine]

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Orica will plan their race around Gerrans, he's the guy with a proven record in such races. I can't see why his odds are that much longer.

I'd say its solely to do with his injured elbow and its slower than expected recovery (although I am not sure why a 34yo would be expected to recover that quickly anyway). I expect L-B-L to be his target for the week and am hoping he will ride for Matthews at Amstel.
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... ril-163032

Thanks for that. I only caught the end of Strade Bianche and only ever notice Gerrans when he wins a race (for some reason ). Apart from the worlds, when Kwiatek won