Re:
Yea it's not that other teams will try and get the stage win. It'll depend on 1 team
Sasquatch said:
Yea it's not that other teams will try and get the stage win. It'll depend on 1 team
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There's also Gilbert that will probably try to get the pink... His only chance to do so is on stage 4 I guess.
Orica's plan is probably win TTT, give pink to Mathews, Mathews hands it to Gerrans after he wins stage 4, Gerrans gives it to Chaves after stage 5, Chaves holds it for as long as he can. Hard to see him holding it past stage 8 even if the plan works to that stage.
Orica have lost Tuft so that weakens the TTT chances and I am not sure how Gerrans is going after the LBL crash.
Orica have lost Tuft so that weakens the TTT chances and I am not sure how Gerrans is going after the LBL crash.
Re: Re:
Matthews will survive that day. Who else would that can out-sprint him? Probably no one so teams won't work for it and they will be happy to take a gamble in the break, but OGE will be chasing it on their own unless it's a threat to whoever holds the pink jersey.
Miburo said:Sasquatch said:
Yea it's not that other teams will try and get the stage win. It'll depend on 1 team
Matthews will survive that day. Who else would that can out-sprint him? Probably no one so teams won't work for it and they will be happy to take a gamble in the break, but OGE will be chasing it on their own unless it's a threat to whoever holds the pink jersey.
Re: Re:
Many teams won't allow a break to get the jersey on stage 3 especially knowing many many riders have a good opportunity to get the jersey the next day. Look at stage 4, you'll see what i mean.
Sasquatch said:Miburo said:Sasquatch said:
Yea it's not that other teams will try and get the stage win. It'll depend on 1 team
Matthews will survive that day. Who else would that can out-sprint him? Probably no one so teams won't work for it and they will be happy to take a gamble in the break, but OGE will be chasing it on their own unless it's a threat to whoever holds the pink jersey.
Many teams won't allow a break to get the jersey on stage 3 especially knowing many many riders have a good opportunity to get the jersey the next day. Look at stage 4, you'll see what i mean.
If the break is 10+ riders, they won't be brought back. Plenty will be fine with someone holding the jersey for a week instead of a GC rider.
Thank you Eshnar! My favorite thread of the year.
I decided to take a look at the weekend stages as I will have to work M-F and at best get to use the CN ticker/CN Forums stage thread. Unless someone knows of english-speaking radio coverage of the Giro somewhere?
Weekend Stages:
Stage 1- Not a fan of TTTs and they aren't the most entertaining to watch.
Stage 2- Sprint stage...
Stage 8- Campitello Matese isn't the greatest MTF by any means, but we'll get to see some action.
Stage 9- Hilly stage, looks like it could be very entertaining, especially if GC guys have a go.
Stage 14- I'm happy there's a long ITT, but would have preferred it be on a weekday instead as they usually aren't that great to watch.
Stage 15- At least there are some mountains to watch.
Stage 20- Finestre!
Stage 21- Sprint stage... But Contador celebrating...
So the weekend stages will likely be: 2 awful sprint stages, 4 mountain/hilly stages that could be entertaining, and 2 time trials (one team and one individual). Could be worse...
I decided to take a look at the weekend stages as I will have to work M-F and at best get to use the CN ticker/CN Forums stage thread. Unless someone knows of english-speaking radio coverage of the Giro somewhere?
Weekend Stages:
Stage 1- Not a fan of TTTs and they aren't the most entertaining to watch.
Stage 2- Sprint stage...
Stage 8- Campitello Matese isn't the greatest MTF by any means, but we'll get to see some action.
Stage 9- Hilly stage, looks like it could be very entertaining, especially if GC guys have a go.
Stage 14- I'm happy there's a long ITT, but would have preferred it be on a weekday instead as they usually aren't that great to watch.
Stage 15- At least there are some mountains to watch.
Stage 20- Finestre!
Stage 21- Sprint stage...
But Contador celebrating... So the weekend stages will likely be: 2 awful sprint stages, 4 mountain/hilly stages that could be entertaining, and 2 time trials (one team and one individual). Could be worse...
Re:
Matthews said he was especially looking forward to stage 4. So sorry for Gerro
Sasquatch said:
Matthews said he was especially looking forward to stage 4. So sorry for Gerro
OMFG this gt is insane. I can't believe what I just read. I don't even know where to begin.
I mean 2 minutes into reading Eshnar's profile I saw there was a 264km stage. What the hell? 264km stage in a gt? thats longer than all but 1 of the monuments and classics, which are 1 day races you can prepare for.
I didn't check the profiles in October, but I thought I read this was going to be an easy Giro. WTF. This is maybe the hardest gt of the last decade. Yes even harder than the Zomegnan Giros.
I have no idea what Contador is doing riding this. Unless his rivals all crash out and saxo neutralizes every stage he won't even make it to the TDF startline.
And absolutely no hyperbole when I say this, but is the hardest 1st week of a gt I have EVER seen. Sure there's probably some from back in the day that were harder but this 2015 giro first week is at least 10 times as hard as the average gt first week. Just at face value its 1 ttt, 2 sprints, 2 mtfs and 4 hill stages.
And that doesn't even begin to paint the picture. The ttt sounds crash prone. They do 1 sprint before they have a stage where they are just climbing all day and thats stage 3 which means theres no gaps on gt and could be nuclear all day. they have a Gap like stage which gc riders might have to contest, an actual MTF.
And that's the easy half of the first week.
That second half is ridiculous. A 264km stage? Its not flat either but with a challenging last 100k and hard finish. I remember the 230k flat stage from the 2013 Giro Rubiano won that wasn't even raced hard and some riders afterwards said it was the hardest day of their careers. Ok that was south Italy and 35 degrees iirc but this will be 264k and in Tuscany you very well could get 30 degrees, this stage is gonna kill people.
And thats not even the hardest stage of the week because 2 days later its 250k on a stage which from what I can see has like 3000m climbing, just up and down all day.
In between there's a hard MTF.
Like I said, hardest 1st week ever. Which is why I say its the hardest gt of the last decade, because while the Zomegnan gts gave you a packed 2nd and 3rd week, you really have to take into account the fact that this is a 3 week gt where the riders are going to be getting massively fatigued throughout the first 9 days, rather enjoying 180k sprint stages.
Now of course, the 2nd and 3rd weeks aren't as hard as we've seen before, but I would still say they are extremely hard and possibly the hardest 2nd and 3rd weeks for a gt since 2011. Stage 11 has no less than 9 climbs that would warrant catergorization in the Tour de France or Vuelta, packed into 150k.
Stage 12 is Fleche Wallone so the gt riders WILL have to fight the last few kilometers.
Stage 14 is the Hardest tt of the decade and it isn't even close. You have to go back 6 years to 2009 Giro to find a harder tt. 59km tt? With open flat roads and then hills. I can't believe what I am seeing.
I honestly thought at this stage reading through Eshnars report that this would be the last gt stage of the race and it would just be a final week of sprints.
But NO.
There are 4 full on mountain stages in the last week. Including the 2 profiles that provided the 2 best stages in recent Giro history - 2010 Aprica and 2005 Sestrieres.
Just wow.
Edit: I guess I should add that those 2 profiles also provided 2 of the worst stages in recent Giro history (2008 Aprica and 2011 Finnestre, both with Contador in pink, so they could turn out to be crap again). But my overall point isn't to do with how the stages will be raced (could be hard, could be not), but simply with how hard the profiles are, and I stand by my conclusion of this being 1 of the hardest gts of the modern era.
I mean 2 minutes into reading Eshnar's profile I saw there was a 264km stage. What the hell? 264km stage in a gt? thats longer than all but 1 of the monuments and classics, which are 1 day races you can prepare for.
I didn't check the profiles in October, but I thought I read this was going to be an easy Giro. WTF. This is maybe the hardest gt of the last decade. Yes even harder than the Zomegnan Giros.
I have no idea what Contador is doing riding this. Unless his rivals all crash out and saxo neutralizes every stage he won't even make it to the TDF startline.
And absolutely no hyperbole when I say this, but is the hardest 1st week of a gt I have EVER seen. Sure there's probably some from back in the day that were harder but this 2015 giro first week is at least 10 times as hard as the average gt first week. Just at face value its 1 ttt, 2 sprints, 2 mtfs and 4 hill stages.
And that doesn't even begin to paint the picture. The ttt sounds crash prone. They do 1 sprint before they have a stage where they are just climbing all day and thats stage 3 which means theres no gaps on gt and could be nuclear all day. they have a Gap like stage which gc riders might have to contest, an actual MTF.
And that's the easy half of the first week.
That second half is ridiculous. A 264km stage? Its not flat either but with a challenging last 100k and hard finish. I remember the 230k flat stage from the 2013 Giro Rubiano won that wasn't even raced hard and some riders afterwards said it was the hardest day of their careers. Ok that was south Italy and 35 degrees iirc but this will be 264k and in Tuscany you very well could get 30 degrees, this stage is gonna kill people.
And thats not even the hardest stage of the week because 2 days later its 250k on a stage which from what I can see has like 3000m climbing, just up and down all day.
In between there's a hard MTF.
Like I said, hardest 1st week ever. Which is why I say its the hardest gt of the last decade, because while the Zomegnan gts gave you a packed 2nd and 3rd week, you really have to take into account the fact that this is a 3 week gt where the riders are going to be getting massively fatigued throughout the first 9 days, rather enjoying 180k sprint stages.
Now of course, the 2nd and 3rd weeks aren't as hard as we've seen before, but I would still say they are extremely hard and possibly the hardest 2nd and 3rd weeks for a gt since 2011. Stage 11 has no less than 9 climbs that would warrant catergorization in the Tour de France or Vuelta, packed into 150k.
Stage 12 is Fleche Wallone so the gt riders WILL have to fight the last few kilometers.
Stage 14 is the Hardest tt of the decade and it isn't even close. You have to go back 6 years to 2009 Giro to find a harder tt. 59km tt? With open flat roads and then hills. I can't believe what I am seeing.
I honestly thought at this stage reading through Eshnars report that this would be the last gt stage of the race and it would just be a final week of sprints.
But NO.
There are 4 full on mountain stages in the last week. Including the 2 profiles that provided the 2 best stages in recent Giro history - 2010 Aprica and 2005 Sestrieres.
Just wow.
Edit: I guess I should add that those 2 profiles also provided 2 of the worst stages in recent Giro history (2008 Aprica and 2011 Finnestre, both with Contador in pink, so they could turn out to be crap again). But my overall point isn't to do with how the stages will be raced (could be hard, could be not), but simply with how hard the profiles are, and I stand by my conclusion of this being 1 of the hardest gts of the modern era.
2008 was not Aprica, it was Tirano. And no way Sestriere 2011 qualifies as one of the worst stages in recent history.
Besides that, I missed your hype posts Hitch
Besides that, I missed your hype posts Hitch
Looking at it again. I wish a stage 9 was implemented in every GT.
Every GT needs to have a stage 9.
Every GT needs to have a stage 9.
Re:
you are mixing things up there I think, Rubiano won the stage to Porto Sant'Elpidio in 2012, 210k, up and down all day, when Lastras crashed out in the lead and Cavendish nearly missed the time cut - is that the one you mean? The long one in Southern Italy in the 2013 Giro was won by Cavendish
The Hitch said:
you are mixing things up there I think, Rubiano won the stage to Porto Sant'Elpidio in 2012, 210k, up and down all day, when Lastras crashed out in the lead and Cavendish nearly missed the time cut - is that the one you mean? The long one in Southern Italy in the 2013 Giro was won by Cavendish
Excellent post Hitch .I dont qualify it like hype post because I agree with pretty much all you said. And iirc Search is right about that Rubiano stage, I remember it pretty well as I lost some money there
.I dont qualify it like hype post because I agree with pretty much all you said. And iirc Search is right about that Rubiano stage, I remember it pretty well as I lost some money there
Re: Re:
You are right. It's the 2012 stage to Porto Sant Elpidio I was talking about. I think. When the sprinters barely made the time cut in high temperatures.
search said:
You are right. It's the 2012 stage to Porto Sant Elpidio I was talking about. I think. When the sprinters barely made the time cut in high temperatures.
Re:
But I was just talking in general about how mortirolo and your former avatar both produced the best gt showdowns, and really crappy gt showdowns
Yeah it wasn't the worst stage in the world, not as bad as some 2012 2013 and 2014 stages, but still a bit of a dud.Eshnar said:2008 was not Aprica, it was Tirano. And no way Sestriere 2011 qualifies as one of the worst stages in recent history.
Besides that, I missed your hype posts Hitch
But I was just talking in general about how mortirolo and your former avatar both produced the best gt showdowns, and really crappy gt showdowns
Re:
When was the last time we saw a 260k stage in a gt? When was the last time we saw a 250k one? That doesn't even take into account the fact that the second one is not only the same lenth as Liege it has the same amount of climbing.
These stages are separated by 1 stage which is pretty hard mtf.
Which means we will have a 6 hour stage followed by a 5 hour stage followed by a 6-7 hour stage. In the first week!!!!.
When was the last time we saw a gt with a 60km tt. We both know the answer and it was a little while ago.
These things make a difference.
From what I can see the sprint stages are 2 6 10 13 17 and 21.
So
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
So there are at least 2 hard stages in between every easy one, and in almost all cases, 3.
Almost every other stage is either for the gc contenders or for attackers (from break or peloton). The only exception is the aforementioned 264k stage which will absolutely tire out everyone anyway and has a hard enough finale to, combined with the distance favour attackers anyway.
Having the difficulty spread out like this over the 3 weeks with hard stage after hard stage being broken up only occasionally by a sprint, is not something I have seen, and will make this gt incredibly difficult.
You think I'm joking?Netserk said:Laaaal Hitch
When was the last time we saw a 260k stage in a gt? When was the last time we saw a 250k one? That doesn't even take into account the fact that the second one is not only the same lenth as Liege it has the same amount of climbing.
These stages are separated by 1 stage which is pretty hard mtf.
Which means we will have a 6 hour stage followed by a 5 hour stage followed by a 6-7 hour stage. In the first week!!!!.
When was the last time we saw a gt with a 60km tt. We both know the answer and it was a little while ago.
These things make a difference.
From what I can see the sprint stages are 2 6 10 13 17 and 21.
So
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
So there are at least 2 hard stages in between every easy one, and in almost all cases, 3.
Almost every other stage is either for the gc contenders or for attackers (from break or peloton). The only exception is the aforementioned 264k stage which will absolutely tire out everyone anyway and has a hard enough finale to, combined with the distance favour attackers anyway.
Having the difficulty spread out like this over the 3 weeks with hard stage after hard stage being broken up only occasionally by a sprint, is not something I have seen, and will make this gt incredibly difficult.
Re: Re:
Ah lol, what a reading fail on my part. The gt is now slightly easier than I had imagined it, though still very difficult.SafeBet said:
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