2015 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[Netserk]

Stage 7 is a sprint stage as well Hitch. The first week is not as hard as you are trying to make it. The first week in '13 was harder. Overall 2011 was far harder. Overall most Giros were harder.

In 2011 there were 3/4 sprints in total, without a single one in the last half of the race.


The 'über' long stage will take about 6 hours. Maybe less. It's without much vertical gain and is not different in difficulty to the one Cav won in '13. Monte Petrano in 2009 took more than 7 hours and was waaaaaaaaaaaay harder than anything in this year's Giro. Same for Gardeccia.

264km along flat roads are a restday compared to that. Every single contender will sit tight in the bunch that day without any wind on their nose.

 

[search]

Re:

Stage 7 is a sprint stage as well Hitch.

I doubt it is.

Renato Laghi (whatever he is doing nowadays) did the stage analyses for the official giro guide, he also said "there's no way a sprinter is going to win. I know the finish in Fiuggi very well [...] My feeling is that an Ardennes-type rider could do well, somebody with the freshness to attack on short, punchy climbs. [...] You might see a few seconds lost here and there among the GC riders, but no more."

 

[SeriousSam]

Man that time trial is long and flat. I can see extreme gaps there.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

Stage 7 is a sprint stage as well Hitch.

I doubt it is.

Renato Laghi (whatever he is doing nowadays) did the stage analyses for the official giro guide, he also said "there's no way a sprinter is going to win. I know the finish in Fiuggi very well [...] My feeling is that an Ardennes-type rider could do well, somebody with the freshness to attack on short, punchy climbs. [...] You might see a few seconds lost here and there among the GC riders, but no more."

Depends on what you mean by "sprinter".
I expect a finish similar to the 2013 Matera stage, where Degenkolb won a somewhat reduced sprint.

 

[Netserk]

It's two times 5km @ 5% then 5km flat to the finish. The maximum grade on the last rise is 5% (it's actually 4.4% avg). The only question is how big a bunch that will contest the sprint if they bother to reel in the break.

Matera was harder than this and with a harder penultimate climb, though the stage was shorter.

Best case scenario it will be Matthews against the Bardiani sprinters. Greipel is my pick.

Mapped the final with tracks4bikers (there's a tunnel that makes the final rise look harder than it is):

Mapped with bikeroutetoaster (tunnel again):

And finally with openrunner (do I have to mention the tunnel?):

As you can see the final rise is without a single bend and ideal for a chase:

 

[MatParker117]

Bling/Gerro vs. Lobato

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

It's two times 5km @ 5% then 5km flat to the finish. The maximum grade on the last rise is 5% (it's actually 4.4% avg). The only question is how big a bunch that will contest the sprint if they bother to reel in the break.

Matera was harder than this and with a harder penultimate climb, though the stage was shorter.

Matera had a harder penultimate climb, sure, but it also had a flat section after it. and 60 kms less.

 

[roundabout]

Fiuggi stage looks to have the same last 10k as in 2011.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/giro-ditalia-2011/stage-6

Maybe the distance and a bit climbing in the finale would be enough, but I would not count out the stronger climbing sprinters for this stage.

 

[etymology]

Re:

OMFG this gt is insane. I can't believe what I just read. I don't even know where to begin.

I mean 2 minutes into reading Eshnar's profile I saw there was a 264km stage. What the hell? 264km stage in a gt? thats longer than all but 1 of the monuments and classics, which are 1 day races you can prepare for.

I didn't check the profiles in October, but I thought I read this was going to be an easy Giro. WTF. This is maybe the hardest gt of the last decade. Yes even harder than the Zomegnan Giros.

I have no idea what Contador is doing riding this. Unless his rivals all crash out and saxo neutralizes every stage he won't even make it to the TDF startline.

And absolutely no hyperbole when I say this, but is the hardest 1st week of a gt I have EVER seen. Sure there's probably some from back in the day that were harder but this 2015 giro first week is at least 10 times as hard as the average gt first week. Just at face value its 1 ttt, 2 sprints, 2 mtfs and 4 hill stages.

And that doesn't even begin to paint the picture. The ttt sounds crash prone. They do 1 sprint before they have a stage where they are just climbing all day and thats stage 3 which means theres no gaps on gt and could be nuclear all day. they have a Gap like stage which gc riders might have to contest, an actual MTF.

And that's the easy half of the first week.

That second half is ridiculous. A 264km stage? Its not flat either but with a challenging last 100k and hard finish. I remember the 230k flat stage from the 2013 Giro Rubiano won that wasn't even raced hard and some riders afterwards said it was the hardest day of their careers. Ok that was south Italy and 35 degrees iirc but this will be 264k and in Tuscany you very well could get 30 degrees, this stage is gonna kill people.

hitch - i'll add my voice the "BIG fan of hitch's hyperbole posts." having done that, i have to ask

WHAT IN THE NAME OF CROSTIS CANCELLED ARE YOU DOING, MAN??????

hah! thought a bitter old man such as myself forgot or would forget it was YOU and YOUR heart palpitating, leg cramping description of the 2011 giro's stage 14 writeup that caused crostis be eliminated from that stage?

prior to YOUR description of the ill-fated, stage ending crostis-zoncolon combo, *some* riders suffering from cancellara syndrome were queasy with fear of impending crostis descent doom. no amount of in-your-face or subliminal repetitions of "rule #5...rule#5...rule #5..." could have eased their fragile "rider safety" psyches.
that's all fine and good as there are always "a few in every bunch."

however: no one can deny that it was not until shortly - VERY shortly - after YOU and YOUR scintillating buildup to the stage ending crostis-zoncolon armageddon, the giro peloton went into full revolt. only an illiterate tri-cyclist would fail to recognize it was not the weather conditions that removed crostis fron the stage. anyone with a mere ounce of cycling passion immediately assigned 'no crostis??!?' (dis)credit where'no crostis??!?' (dis)credit rightfully belonged: HITCH, AND ONLY HITCH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NO CROSTIS.

i won't repeat any of what is quoted for fear of having first week stage cancellations. in an attempt to convince hitch to delete the quoted post BEFORE too many riders afflicted with cancellera syndrome read it, remember the adage "cancel a giro stage once, shame on hitch. cancel a giro stage twice, permaban hitch."? i don't remember that one either - it is my admittedly pathetic way of BEGGING hitch to delete the referenced post before stage shortening or cancellera-ing can be done.

should hitch ignore my pleas - the result of which will be stages being shortened and/or otherwise ruined - all i can say is "there is always the tour of california."

 

[Jagartrott]

I still have to chuckle when I think of that Astana DS (trying to lure Nibali into doing the giro) claiming there were only three important stages in this edition.

 

[DBotero]

Re:

I still have to chuckle when I think of that Astana DS (trying to lure Nibali into doing the giro) claiming there were only three important stages in this edition.

They must have been really desperate about Aru condition,i'm really curious in what kind of shape will show up.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Just posting this here. I for one always have trouble remembering the sequence.

Larger version here: http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/methode_image/2014/10/06/Ciclismo/Foto%20Gallery/Giro2015_generale_alt_mediagallery-page.jpg

 

[Red Rick]

The Hitch is on hyping again. This kind of cycling loving, hype is why I joined the forum.

This the stage you mean Hitch?

http://www.steephill.tv/players/profile/?race=giro-d-italia&stage=6&year=2012&src=http://www.gazzetta.it/static_images/ciclismo/giroditalia/2012/zoom/altimetria_06.jpg

 

[the sceptic]

Richie is going to lose big time on one of these hilly stages in the first week imo.

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re: Re:

Stage 7 is a sprint stage as well Hitch.

I doubt it is.

Renato Laghi (whatever he is doing nowadays) did the stage analyses for the official giro guide, he also said "there's no way a sprinter is going to win. I know the finish in Fiuggi very well [...] My feeling is that an Ardennes-type rider could do well, somebody with the freshness to attack on short, punchy climbs. [...] You might see a few seconds lost here and there among the GC riders, but no more."

Depends on what you mean by "sprinter".
I expect a finish similar to the 2013 Matera stage, where Degenkolb won a somewhat reduced sprint.

Reduced even further with his teammate crashining on the final corner.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

The Hitch is on hyping again. This kind of cycling loving, hype is why I joined the forum.

This the stage you mean Hitch?

http://www.steephill.tv/players/profile/?race=giro-d-italia&stage=6&year=2012&src=http://www.gazzetta.it/static_images/ciclismo/giroditalia/2012/zoom/altimetria_06.jpg

My god,montelupone was epic!

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Just posting this here. I for one always have trouble remembering the sequence.

[broken link]

Larger version here: http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/methode_image/2014/10/06/Ciclismo/Foto%20Gallery/Giro2015_generale_alt_mediagallery-page.jpg

Trying again. Will this work?

 

[Eshnar]

Just posting this here. I for one always have trouble remembering the sequence.

[broken link]

Larger version here: http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/methode_image/2014/10/06/Ciclismo/Foto%20Gallery/Giro2015_generale_alt_mediagallery-page.jpg

Trying again. Will this work?

kinda.
Anyway, I just pasted a smaller version in the OP.

 

[manafana]

good work sir

 

[Eshnar]

Thinking about the ITT again, I'm not so sure the winner will make it under 1h20' as I predicted. So I just changed my expectations to between 1h20' and 1h25'

 

[sir fly]

If Contador is serious about the double, he'll want to wrap the Giro up as early as possible.
The succession around the second rest day is when the race should be decided, rather than a week later.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

If Contador is serious about the double, he'll want to wrap the Giro up as early as possible.
The succession around the second rest day is when the race should be decided, rather than a week later.

I mean you are right (about quitting in time), but there is like 1% chance that this will happen.

In adittion to that, I dont think he would do that anyway (barring crshes and injuries)

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

If Contador is serious about the double, he'll want to wrap the Giro up as early as possible.
The succession around the second rest day is when the race should be decided, rather than a week later.

I mean you are right (about quitting in time), but there is like 1% chance that this will happen.

In adittion to that, I dont think he would do that anyway (barring crshes and injuries)

If by the end of the stage 16 he builds around a minute of advantage, it's wrapped up.
No one defends as he does, and I'm sure that's the plan.

 

[red_flanders]

Thanks for the fantastic state-by-stage analysis Eshnar!!

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

If Contador is serious about the double, he'll want to wrap the Giro up as early as possible.
The succession around the second rest day is when the race should be decided, rather than a week later.

He might lose time to Porte and/or Urán in the time trials. that looks promising for the mountain stages.