2015 Tour de France Stage 6: Abbeville-Le Havre 191.5km

[gags]

After seeing the profile and his yesterday's sprint, this just screams Sagan to me. Deserves it too.

 

[Flamin]

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Now it makes more sense they compared it with the cauberg, 200meters more might be the dagger for most sprinters.

I don't see any big sprinter survive and be competitive besides sagan

Even with the original numbers, it was both longer and steeper than Cauberg...

 

[sir fly]

Google street view's telling more than the bare numbers.

 

[l.Harm]

*** Sagan
** Degenkolb
* Gallopin, Van Avermaet, Kristoff?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

 

[gags]

Also... I just registered now but I have been lurking for some time now and I was always angry at people criticizing OPs. But now I have to say, this is an excellent OP!

 

[Netserk]

Maybe Sagan has got too heavy for this ****?

 

[gags]

Re: Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

Maybe, but he just seems so strong this TdF. Arguably the strongest rider so far. Just look at stage 4 where he had to chase the group for AC on his own and then still managed to contest in the sprint. I haven't been this excited about Sagan since 2012. I might be starting to develop a man-crush.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

Maybe, but he just seems so strong this TdF. Arguably the strongest rider so far. Just look at stage 4 where he had to chase the group for AC on his own and then still managed to contest in the sprint. I haven't been this excited about Sagan since 2012. I might be starting to develop a man-crush.

Completely agree, he's been incredibly strong so far - arguably better than 2012 form, but that could work against him as well. Everyone has seen how well he's going, so he will be the most marked rider going into the finish. If he gets to the top of that climb with a load of puncheurs (say Gallopin, Valverde, GVA, Stybar) - they're not just going to leave it until a sprint.

 

[JackRabbitSlims]

Breakaway to take this......Sylvain Chavanel.

 

[Billie]

Has Kristoff ever won stages (in any race?) that finished like this? Can't seem to find any. Going to put in some h2h's.

Boasson Hagen to top 3. This is his specialty.

 

[The Barb]

Like everyone, I agree that the profile is tailor made for Saga and he finally seems to be back to peak form.

My only worry is that, because he looks so dominant, everyone will be looking to Tinkoff chase down the break but might they ride to protect Contador? A week ago you would have said Orica would chase but obviously that is not happening now. As long as the break consists of no riders who are a threat to Martin's yellow jersey, the break might stay away.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Has Kristoff ever won stages (in any race?) that finished like this? Can't seem to find any. Going to put in some h2h's.

Boasson Hagen to top 3. This is his specialty.

The tour de suisse stage he won this year was also uphill but of course not as difficult as this finish. The reason why many people see him as contender is because he doesn't have problems with small hills (Milan-San Remo or last years stage 12 of tdf)

 

[rm7]

Is the end like LBL? If that's the case I could see a purito vs Froome again, maybe a bit too much for Sagan. Contador could loose some seconds again maybe.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Re:

Is the end like LBL? If that's the case I could see a purito vs Froome again, maybe a bit too much for Sagan. Contador could loose some seconds again maybe.

this is very far from being a LBL type course.

Heavies might not win the stage, but they will be present at the bizz end.
That would never happen at LBL.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

Sagan has incredible form and punch. If he reacts quickly, nobody will be able to open a gap because he's so explosive, so that won't cost him too much energy. And it's only 500m..

 

[gags]

Re: Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

Maybe, but he just seems so strong this TdF. Arguably the strongest rider so far. Just look at stage 4 where he had to chase the group for AC on his own and then still managed to contest in the sprint. I haven't been this excited about Sagan since 2012. I might be starting to develop a man-crush.

Completely agree, he's been incredibly strong so far - arguably better than 2012 form, but that could work against him as well. Everyone has seen how well he's going, so he will be the most marked rider going into the finish. If he gets to the top of that climb with a load of puncheurs (say Gallopin, Valverde, GVA, Stybar) - they're not just going to leave it until a sprint.

I think he's used to being marked.

 

[Billie]

Re:

Has Kristoff ever won stages (in any race?) that finished like this? Can't seem to find any. Going to put in some h2h's.

Boasson Hagen to top 3. This is his specialty.

Just remember Tropea at Giro 2011 which is very similar

 

[BYOP88]

Now that's how you do OP's.

Sagan for the stage, for what it's worth.

 

[manafana]

break and attacks do have a chance here, while Stybar and Coquard look some value for this.

 

[GoGarmin]

600 meters at 9 percent!

http://www.cronoescalada.com/index.php/puertos/view/4343

Certainly will drop a lot of the sprinters, perhaps even Sagan et. al. if the GC guys go at it. And with Nibali, Contador and Quintana needing time, one of the three just might.

Another great stage with possible cross winds and a sting in the tail.

 

[Miburo]

No way in hell sagan will drop, for sure not in this shape

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

No way Sagan doesn't win this. Greg 3rd.

There are loads of ways he doesn't win this. Even if he makes it to the top of the steep section in the lead group, everyone else will try to get away from him before the sprint. If he has to close down gaps for 500m on that false flat, someone could easily get away and, even if not, he might not have much left for the sprint. He certainly won't have any team mates working for him.

Maybe, but he just seems so strong this TdF. Arguably the strongest rider so far. Just look at stage 4 where he had to chase the group for AC on his own and then still managed to contest in the sprint. I haven't been this excited about Sagan since 2012. I might be starting to develop a man-crush.

Completely agree, he's been incredibly strong so far - arguably better than 2012 form, but that could work against him as well. Everyone has seen how well he's going, so he will be the most marked rider going into the finish. If he gets to the top of that climb with a load of puncheurs (say Gallopin, Valverde, GVA, Stybar) - they're not just going to leave it until a sprint.

I think he's used to being marked.

Indeed, and he's also used to not winning when he is marked.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

This stage finish actually looked much easier at first sight. Now I'm not even sure it really is a Sagan finish. I originally tipped him for an obvious win, however now I'm wondering if this is more of a Purito/Valverde finish.