2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin

[ice&fire]

Froome will just follow Sky's preprogrammed instructions of what gear to use and what cadence to pedal at each point of the climb. Whether he attacks or gets dropped will only depend on what others do with respect to these preprogrammed instructions.

And for your entertainment during the rest day, just watch the climb (only until Col du Soudet) from the 1996 TdF.

https://youtu.be/e5D55jPvipg?t=58m

 

[42x16ss]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I expect Ax 3 Domaines performance from Froome.

Froome - Porte - Poels 1-2-3. Brailsford to blame a tailwind that somehow only affects his riders

 

[HiroAntagonist]

Re:

I think the following two stages are more conducive to the forming of a cunning plan, such as isolating Froome and then attacking on a downhill to catch up with some guys from the break, etc. Tuesday might just see the other teams allow most of their team mates to have a relatively easy day

This. I'm assuming everyone will stick tight for an uneventful day. If the the big four stick together opportunities will present themselves down the line. Surprises are welcome, though, even if it's Froome shedding the field. Most of the gc contenders are experienced enough to not get silly over the first mtf.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

I think the following two stages are more conducive to the forming of a cunning plan, such as isolating Froome and then attacking on a downhill to catch up with some guys from the break, etc. Tuesday might just see the other teams allow most of their team mates to have a relatively easy day

This. I'm assuming everyone will stick tight for an uneventful day. If the the big four stick together opportunities will present themselves down the line. Surprises are welcome, though, even if it's Froome shedding the field. Most of the gc contenders are experienced enough to not get silly over the first mtf.

This is why I'm so disappointed that Rolland has had an even worse first week than usual. If he was 2-3 minutes back he could be the guy to seriously open the race up with one of his crazy team moves. Rolland has sparked race changing moves in the past (see '14 Giro) and an astute challenger could seriously benefit from one on a multi mountain stage.

 

[phanatic]

Re:

I think Quintana lays down the law here and those that can will try to follow. Too shallow at the upper end of the climb to make real differences. That will be for stage 11 with an attack over the top of Tourmalet and on the descent.

EDIT: It will be interesting to see which of the top contenders has a bad day. One of the contenders always has a bad after the first rest day....

Froome and Nibali will be trying to hold his wheel like Hesjedal and Rolland on Val Martello.

 

[Supimilian]

Quintana def the man to beat here. Can't see anyone dropping him in the Pyrenees after how he looked today and a rest day.

 

[No_Balls]

Re: Re:

For those thinking Dawg will or should follow wheel: forget it.

He has a scripted plan for every stage and assignated watts to smack down with, constantly gazing on his trusted stem to make sure he sticks to his plan, all the while he has sir Dave in his ear guiding him along. But thats not all to it. Dawgs notoriously lack of self-esteem needs constant attention and he wants to be accepted among the broader community thinking he have to attack for making a statement and get accepted. He just cant help himself.

He will be looking for wobbling away as much as possible: perhaps new climbing records is in sight?

 

[Tonton]

Re:

An early attack by a GC guy would be great as it'd throw a big spanner in the works and Sky would most likely panic big time. There's a slim but decent chance they'll be able to beat Froome in the mountains but why wait then, why wait and feed into his comfort zone...have to get him ragged before the climbs even arrive. As said on another thread, Nibali and Contador are the smartest guys in the peloton. An alliance is highly unlikely, especially after the Giro, but they'd be the two guys who could destroy Froome on one stage and even end his GC chances. Chances of an alliance happening though are about 1%

Agree, but who is willing to burn himself and let another guy reap the benefits when Froome/Sky finally crack? As you say, an alliance is very unlikely. As days go by, guys will start defending their third or fourth place and chase guys who go for it. To beat Froome, Bertie, Nairito and Nibbles must start an all-out war sooner rather than later. Won't happen. Maybe not Tuesday, but Wednesday, Froome will explode them, then watch them fight for second, chase each other. Armstrong like...

 

[rm7]

Do people think that Saxo, Astana and Moviestar only will follow the SKY train, or do something different? Without a MTF before, there's not really a lot of opportunities. TJ will be happy with the SKY train, that's the way he likes it too.

Will one of the three team simply try to accelerate from the bottom of the climb, try to destroy the SKY train? Could be interesting to see how many of the SKY people that will blow up, if they tried.

It would simply be a disaster for everyone if he rides them of wheel. They have to get Froome out of the comfort zone. Do something crazy with your teams.

But it's the first MTF, so i expect everyone to follow SKY's train...

 

[Miburo]

They'll definitely only follow the train tuesday, they'll all be scared shitless for froome.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

They'll definitely only follow the train tuesday, they'll all be scared shitless for froome.

Train? There are more than 5 full kms at >9%, one of them at 10.7%. Sky train will be a train of Froome and one of his teammates.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

They'll definitely only follow the train tuesday, they'll all be scared shitless for froome.

Not so much scared, rather trying to find out how the body responds to the first big climb after a grueling week. A breakaway can succeed, have 4 minutes at the bottom, one guy by one minute on top. French of course .

 

[Supimilian]

Re:

Do people think that Saxo, Astana and Moviestar only will follow the SKY train, or do something different? Without a MTF before, there's not really a lot of opportunities. TJ will be happy with the SKY train, that's the way he likes it too.

Will one of the three team simply try to accelerate from the bottom of the climb, try to destroy the SKY train? Could be interesting to see how many of the SKY people that will blow up, if they tried.

It would simply be a disaster for everyone if he rides them of wheel. They have to get Froome out of the comfort zone. Do something crazy with your teams.

But it's the first MTF, so i expect everyone to follow SKY's train...

Will be looking forward to seeing how they react when Rodriguez goes at the foot of the mountain. Looks very strong. He could sneak back in it if they watch each other too much in the next three stages.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 tour d'france stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Ma

I just hope its not some boring breakaway win with 40 guys in the peloton cruising in together at the end.

That will be Wednesday's stage and maybe Thursday's.

Although Thursday's stage is perfect for teams to try and put Sky under pressure early and go fast on the first climb to try and isolate Froome. A peloton of 10-15 riders on the penultimate climb would be perfect.

As for the topic at hand it wouldn't surprise me if Froome tries to let the jersey go on Tuesday. I think they would be happy for a non threatening break to take the bonus seconds and stage.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

They'll definitely only follow the train tuesday, they'll all be scared shitless for froome.

Train? There are more than 5 full kms at >9%, one of them at 10.7%. Sky train will be a train of Froome and one of his teammates.

Or just Froome spinning at 120 rpm up the climb!!

 

[hfer07]

Re: Re:

They'll definitely only follow the train tuesday, they'll all be scared shitless for froome.

Train? There are more than 5 full kms at >9%, one of them at 10.7%. Sky train will be a train of Froome and one of his teammates.

Or just Froome spinning at 120 rpm up the climb!!

One fact that is certain: FROOME WILL BE LOOKING AT HIS STEM

 

[Big Doopie]

Froome will do one thing. Try to CRUSH all opposition on Tuesday.

Whether he will or no is why we watch.

 

[IamIronMan]

Re:

tejay atm is the most overrated guy on the peloton. he won't make top 5 in this tour, trust me.

I don't know if he's the most overrated, but I said before the Tour that of the Americans, Talansky will finish higher. Not looking so good right now, but I'm sticking with it. Talansky has the perfect attitude, no pretense of finishing on the podium. Hope he pulls a Ryder/Giro and just gets stronger and stronger. This is the best TVG has looked in his career, so he could be on really good form, but I think he will be prone to panicking if he starts to lose his overall position, and may blow up completely on one of the stages.

 

[WheelofGear]

Based on what we've seen, I'd be surprised if Froome doesn't win it. The question is more whether he can gain a minute or not. And if another Sky rider will finish in top 3.

And Nibali will finish outside 10. He has been in terrible shape. Even getting dropped on a petite climb with 1 k of climbing.

Contador looks tired. I think he will give it a shot but blow up in the end and finish 6th or something.

I except Tejay to be the best of the rest.

1. Dawg
2. Tejay
3. Quintana

 

[Kazistuta]

This being the first real mountain test and all, I'm sure we'll see the old "wait-and-see" approach from the B5. I'm not sure if the GC men will ride for victory,but I think Froome and Quintana will be the strongest right now.

Purito (who seems forgotten by most people) will show his worth and sprint for third amongst the GC men.

GC ranking:
1. Quintana
2. Froome s.t.

3. Purito 10-15 sec.
4.Contador 15-20 sec.

5. Pinot 30 sec.
6. TJ s.t.

Nibali is the most unknown to me. Hopefully he surprises me and equals at least Contador and Purito.

Other likely top10 candidates:
Mollema, Barguil, Gesink (has been riding really well)

 

[BrentonOfTheNorth]

Re: Re:

An early attack by a GC guy would be great as it'd throw a big spanner in the works and Sky would most likely panic big time. There's a slim but decent chance they'll be able to beat Froome in the mountains but why wait then, why wait and feed into his comfort zone...have to get him ragged before the climbs even arrive. As said on another thread, Nibali and Contador are the smartest guys in the peloton. An alliance is highly unlikely, especially after the Giro, but they'd be the two guys who could destroy Froome on one stage and even end his GC chances. Chances of an alliance happening though are about 1%

Agree, but who is willing to burn himself and let another guy reap the benefits when Froome/Sky finally crack? As you say, an alliance is very unlikely. As days go by, guys will start defending their third or fourth place and chase guys who go for it. To beat Froome, Bertie, Nairito and Nibbles must start an all-out war sooner rather than later. Won't happen. Maybe not Tuesday, but Wednesday, Froome will explode them, then watch them fight for second, chase each other. Armstrong like...

Yeah... in 2013 they didn't gang up on Froome even when a great opportunity presented itself. I don't recall the details... faint memory says that Valverde instead decided to basically act as Froome's domestique when Froome was isolated early on in a mountain stage..

 

[malakassis]

1.froome (like 2013 - attack in the steepest sektion, drop leftovers in the flat part after labays)
2.purito +30
3.nairo s.t.
4.TJ +45
5.AC s.t.

nibali looking bad. at least +1 minute. but he will try s.th at least in the alps, especially col d allos descent. like in duaphine. (shame there is no col des champs before. back in 1975 they were climbing 6000m in the pra loup stage!but they had less estrogen in the water )

 

[Frosty]

Re: Re:

An early attack by a GC guy would be great as it'd throw a big spanner in the works and Sky would most likely panic big time. There's a slim but decent chance they'll be able to beat Froome in the mountains but why wait then, why wait and feed into his comfort zone...have to get him ragged before the climbs even arrive. As said on another thread, Nibali and Contador are the smartest guys in the peloton. An alliance is highly unlikely, especially after the Giro, but they'd be the two guys who could destroy Froome on one stage and even end his GC chances. Chances of an alliance happening though are about 1%

Agree, but who is willing to burn himself and let another guy reap the benefits when Froome/Sky finally crack? As you say, an alliance is very unlikely. As days go by, guys will start defending their third or fourth place and chase guys who go for it. To beat Froome, Bertie, Nairito and Nibbles must start an all-out war sooner rather than later. Won't happen. Maybe not Tuesday, but Wednesday, Froome will explode them, then watch them fight for second, chase each other. Armstrong like...

Yeah... in 2013 they didn't gang up on Froome even when a great opportunity presented itself. I don't recall the details... faint memory says that Valverde instead decided to basically act as Froome's domestique when Froome was isolated early on in a mountain stage..

Yep, Froome isolated in a group of about 40-50 (from memory) with no Sky riders close to joining.

http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2013/us/stage-9/news/flm/dan-martin-victorious-on-a-day-froome-is-isolated.html

 

[del1962]

Be interesting to see the composition of the break tomorrow

Who will be the highest on GC, how many will be involved and which riders from Tinkoff, Movistar, BMC and Astana will be there.

I thiink Sky should allow anyone from Talansky down on GC

 

[Jagartrott]

A really strong break with guys from teams like Astana (e.g. Kangert) and Tinkoff (e.g. Kreuziger) (to anticipate a Contador/Nibali downhill attack) + riders like Gallopin will only form on Wednesday. I expect much from that stage.