2016 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage analysis

[Eshnar]

Re:

Eshnar do you share an idea of this year's Giro being probably the weakest climbing-wise since 2004?

It depends on the kind of comparison you want to make. It is one of the Giros with the fewest number of high mountain stages surely, comparable only to 2004 and 2007 and weaker than the others. But in this Giro a climber has the chance to gain much more time in those of this year than, for example, in 2004, 2007, 2009 and maybe also 2010. So it all depends what you mean by climbing.

 

[fauniera]

I'd say there is a fifty percent chance that we will get less climbing than planned, due to bad weather. Agnello and Bonette in May, that is highly risky.

Can we get this thread stickied, please?

 

[Eshnar]

Can we get this thread stickied, please?

After Romandie... right now there are too many stuck threads already.

 

[ILovecycling]

Wonderful preview as always Eshnar! I read only first 5 stages but Im looking forward to the following

 

[yaco]

Fantastic preview Eshnar - My guess is that their may be aggressive racing in the mountains for the contenders who are weaker in the TT.

 

[The Hitch]

Thanks for the write up eshnar.

Wow, on paper this giro looks amazing.

That stage (13?) is one of the best designed stages ever. On top of that 2 stages that go above 2700m.

Not that many overused giro climbs either.

Too bad that with the weather many won't end up being raced.

 

[the delgados]

Thanks for providing my daily go-to guide for the Giro, Eshnar.
Great work.

 

[dusty red roads]

ditto, love the photos as well!

 

[Brullnux]

Is it OK now to start hyping up next year, or shall we wait until the 29th of May?

Best time of year. We savour it more as it comes after that storm of shite races.

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Great write up as usual Eshnar!

I haven't up until now seen the profiles for the two Dutch road stages. Rather underwhelming personally. So much potential that wasn't used.

 

[Bushman]

Cancellara will win stage 4 while wearing pink. That is my hope.

I can actually see Landa winning on this route, but he has to earn it. Plenty opportunities to attack if you're stronger than you're opponents but you have to be willing to take some risks

 

[Flamin]

Amazing stuff, Eshnar. This really triggered my excitement for cycling again. Boy, was that necessary after the horse crap that is called the Ardennes. Thank you for that.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I've nearly died several times on that Berg en Dal climb
Still baffled they managed to create not one but two 190km stages out of that very short distance between Arnhem and Nijmegen

 

[SeriousSam]

Thanks for the write up Eshnar, inspires me to finish the work for the odds threads I'm planning for the Tour, and perhaps the Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I've nearly died several times on that Berg en Dal climb
Still baffled they managed to create not one but two 190km stages out of that very short distance between Arnhem and Nijmegen

Yeah me too. Hill makes me feel bad every time I do it.

 

[TMP402]

I really don't like Stages 2 and 3 being A->B, then B->A

 

[Miburo]

You know it's gonna be a boring giro when you almost count on piti for action.

Nibali might be ***, if he will really be *** this giro will be boring as *** but seeing Landa win makes up for it i guess

 

[Pantani_lives]

Great preview!

This course looks like a good mixture of climbing, time trialing, some sterrato, some middle mountains... Something for everybody. It's hard to predict which stages, apart from the time trials, will be crucial. Usually you can pick two mountain stages that will be crucial: the first MTF and the toughest stage. In this case the first MTF isn't tough and the toughest stages don't have a MTF. Some of these stages will be highly anticipated and nothing will happen. Then one of the mountain stages that doesn't look so hard will have spectacular action.

Based on his past Nibali is the favorite, but based on current shape it's Landa. Hopefully one or two outsiders will get involved in the GC battle as well.

 

[SafeBet]

Great preview once again!
I like the italian part of the first week a lot. Could make for great racing given the battle for the Maglia Rosa. Cancellara will sure have the jersey as his main goal and has a good chance of keeping it for some days. But so does Dumoulin, given the race starts in his home country. Nibali and Valverde are also good TTers and can handle the hills so they could try something.

 

[Forever The Best]

Awesome preview

 

[Brullnux]

After seeing the crazy results in Turkey, I want crosswinds for the Giro.

 

[pink_jersey]

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

https://youtu.be/LJLcsUfNTH0?t=3490

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

The Cividale stage should be good for Nibali. If it rains the time gaps on the descents could be enormous.

 

[pink_jersey]

Re: Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

https://youtu.be/LJLcsUfNTH0?t=3490

C'mon, he didn't even tried to follow Nibs there.