2016 TdF, Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany → Revel (197km)

[saganftw]

Re: Re:

tinkoff attack on the first climb is 100% sure,even if it gets all together in the flat part the sprinter trains will be so tired,they wont have energy to keep cav or kittel at the front on the 3rd cat climb...especially with wednesday flat stage i doubt etixx or lotto want to work hard and cavendish is close to a breaking point anyway

I don't think Tinkoff needs to go hard on Port d'Envalira to drop the sprinters.

its not about dropping the sprinters,its about keeping them so far behind they give up chasing and sagan can comfortably grab 20 on intermediate sprint and whatever he gets in the finish

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

tinkoff attack on the first climb is 100% sure,even if it gets all together in the flat part the sprinter trains will be so tired,they wont have energy to keep cav or kittel at the front on the 3rd cat climb...especially with wednesday flat stage i doubt etixx or lotto want to work hard and cavendish is close to a breaking point anyway

I don't think Tinkoff needs to go hard on Port d'Envalira to drop the sprinters.

its not about dropping the sprinters,its about keeping them so far behind they give up chasing and sagan can comfortably grab 20 on intermediate sprint and whatever he gets in the finish

How much time do you think Sagan can realistically gain on the sprinters on Envalira? It's a pretty gentle climb, with a big benefit of drafting, and comes when all sprinters are fresh at the start of a stage after a rest day. And, however, good Sagan may be in the mountains, he's not exactly Quintana. I'd say he could get max about 10 minutes if he really pushes it; no way the sprinters teams will give up the chase with that kind of deficit when there is still 150km to be raced.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Don't be surprised if guys like Sagan, GvA, Alaphilippe en EBH will be in the early break. Easier scenario then trying to control the stage.

Not sure the break is such a good idea for Sagan. Firstly, he'll have all the sprinter's teams chasing him down all day, so probably won't make it and will have wasted energy. Secondly, even if the break does stay away until the latter stages, no-one in it will want to take Sagan to the finish. He would have to be chasing down attacks almost constantly for the last 10-15km.

But you think teams like Etixx, Lotto and Fortuneo will chase? I don't think guys like Kittel and Greipel think they can survive that final hill. So if Sagan gets in the break, he's safe for the rest of the stage, considering the fact Etixx and Lotto will not chase.

And you think guys like Matthews, Alaphilippe and GvA will not cooperate in the break because Sagan is there? They have a chance to win the stage, with or without Sagan.

If he decides to just stay in the peloton and let Tinkoff chase the break, will they get much help from the other teams? Depends which riders are in the break.

 

[pink_jersey]

No way Sagan can make 10 minutes on Envalira. Max. 4-5 minutes, but even that will be incredible hard.

 

[saganftw]

Re: Re:

tinkoff attack on the first climb is 100% sure,even if it gets all together in the flat part the sprinter trains will be so tired,they wont have energy to keep cav or kittel at the front on the 3rd cat climb...especially with wednesday flat stage i doubt etixx or lotto want to work hard and cavendish is close to a breaking point anyway

I don't think Tinkoff needs to go hard on Port d'Envalira to drop the sprinters.

its not about dropping the sprinters,its about keeping them so far behind they give up chasing and sagan can comfortably grab 20 on intermediate sprint and whatever he gets in the finish

How much time do you think Sagan can realistically gain on the sprinters on Envalira? It's a pretty gentle climb, with a big benefit of drafting, and comes when all sprinters are fresh at the start of a stage after a rest day. And, however, good Sagan may be in the mountains, he's not exactly Quintana. I'd say he could get max about 10 minutes if he really pushes it; no way the sprinters teams will give up the chase with that kind of deficit when there is still 150km to be raced.

10 minutes to catch up is exactly what i thought would be the margin for etixx and lotto (who are not really going for green) to chill and save it for next day which is a proper flat stage without 3rd cat 7km from the finish

and i wouldnt underestimate rest day into racing day - for some its incredibly hard to get legs going into the 22km climb

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

10 minutes to catch up is exactly what i thought would be the margin for etixx and lotto (who are not really going for green) to chill and save it for next day which is a proper flat stage without 3rd cat 7km from the finish

and i wouldnt underestimate rest day into racing day - for some its incredibly hard to get legs going into the 22km climb

I think they would certainly still race it. That 3rd cat is a 3rd cat in name only, it's not so difficult, and the sprinters will have basically been resting for 140km before it, in the middle of a peloton going gently downhill most of the day.

Even if Cavendish and Kittel aren't interested, the likes of Coquard, Matthews, Kristoff and Greipel will all be very keen to get something - especially as their teams haven't done much in the Tour so far.

Apart from picking up the intermediate sprint, I don't really see the benefit for Sagan of getting in the break. He would be favourite for the stage if he just stayed in the peloton all day and would save a lot of energy doing so. If he does make it into the break and it stays away, he'll just get attacked anyway in the last 10km and won't be able to hold it all together.

 

[Matteo.]

The last cote, climbed with a fast pace, it's enough to drop cav and kittel

 

[saganftw]

Re: Re:

10 minutes to catch up is exactly what i thought would be the margin for etixx and lotto (who are not really going for green) to chill and save it for next day which is a proper flat stage without 3rd cat 7km from the finish

and i wouldnt underestimate rest day into racing day - for some its incredibly hard to get legs going into the 22km climb

I think they would certainly still race it. That 3rd cat is a 3rd cat in name only, it's not so difficult, and the sprinters will have basically been resting for 140km before it, in the middle of a peloton going gently downhill most of the day.

Even if Cavendish and Kittel aren't interested, the likes of Coquard, Matthews, Kristoff and Greipel will all be very keen to get something - especially as their teams haven't done much in the Tour so far.

Apart from picking up the intermediate sprint, I don't really see the benefit for Sagan of getting in the break. He would be favourite for the stage if he just stayed in the peloton all day and would save a lot of energy doing so. If he does make it into the break and it stays away, he'll just get attacked anyway in the last 10km and won't be able to hold it all together.

if he stays in the peloton he will loose points to cavendish(or at least not gain any),if he is in the break he has chance to win the stage and gain points

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

if he stays in the peloton he will loose points to cavendish(or at least not gain any),if he is in the break he has chance to win the stage and gain points

Yeah, he could lose some intermediate points, but who cares about that at this stage in the race? Cav probably won't finish the race anyway, and even if he does, Sagan can pick up loads more by getting in breaks during the final week. He's easily going to win green again whatever he does tomorrow.

Surely he has to go all out for the stage win tomorrow. Keep fresh in the peloton, get his team to work with other sprint trains to reel in the break, then unleash carnage on the final climb.

 

[saganftw]

Re: Re:

if he stays in the peloton he will loose points to cavendish(or at least not gain any),if he is in the break he has chance to win the stage and gain points

Yeah, he could lose some intermediate points, but who cares about that at this stage in the race? Cav probably won't finish the race anyway, and even if he does, Sagan can pick up loads more by getting in breaks during the final week. He's easily going to win green again whatever he does tomorrow.

Surely he has to go all out for the stage win tomorrow. Keep fresh in the peloton, get his team to work with other sprint trains to reel in the break, then unleash carnage on the final climb.

with flat stage on wednesday and friday he could easily find himself 50+ down on green jersey again and you have to remember he needs 30+ advantage before final stage in paris...also he wont get any points in TTs and he cant be in attack every day so getting advantage whenever he can is crucial

while i also think cav wont finish the tour,tinkoff has to act as if he was going to finish it

 

[cipurian]

If in break or in peloton Sagan will have to ride hard when it comes down to chasing down the attacks that are gonna come in last 10k so it still comes down to how strong he is. I would like to see Dumoulin to take it though.

 

[WillemS]

Re:

I would like to see Dumoulin to take it though.

I think Dumoulin's next goal is the ITT; he's still aiming for Rio.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

But you think teams like Etixx, Lotto and Fortuneo will chase? I don't think guys like Kittel and Greipel think they can survive that final hill. So if Sagan gets in the break, he's safe for the rest of the stage, considering the fact Etixx and Lotto will not chase.

And you think guys like Matthews, Alaphilippe and GvA will not cooperate in the break because Sagan is there? They have a chance to win the stage, with or without Sagan.

If he decides to just stay in the peloton and let Tinkoff chase the break, will they get much help from the other teams? Depends which riders are in the break.

I'm with Arrendodo on this one. Since there is a long climb at the beginning, there will be a strong break and some of those would fancy their chances against Sagan. It would be a wild goose chase for GC guys to go into the break, so the sprinters' teams will have to chase. But which team(s)? It will take time for any chase to get organised and by chasing you are weakening yourself when the finish is not straightforward for a sprinter.

This looks like an ideal stage for a breakaway. I'll go for Sagan, since there are a few scenarios that could lead to him winning on such a parcours. Maybe VanMarcke will try his hand?

 

[Pricey_sky]

With Gerrans and Matthews Orica could have a reason to chase if they aren't in the break. Same with BMC with GVA, although maybe they are more focused on their GC prospects.

Greipel could survive the final climb and given the fact he's not won a stage and is probably only 3rd fastest in a sprint behind Cav and Kittle here this could be his day.

 

[MatParker117]

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

 

[LeSensei]

Nairo saved his energy to attack in this day. Expect a long-range shot tomorrow.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Re:

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

And why not Etixx, they are the specialists and have with Dan Martin someone close in the GC aswell. Knowing Lefevre I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

And why not Etixx, they are the specialists and have with Dan Martin someone close in the GC aswell. Knowing Lefevre I wouldn't be surprised.

Would make sense from both viewpoints let Kiry, Tony Martin, Vermote, Keisse, Stannard, G & Rowe rip the race apart and Movistar don't have the same caliber of domestiques on the flat.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Re: Re:

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

And why not Etixx, they are the specialists and have with Dan Martin someone close in the GC aswell. Knowing Lefevre I wouldn't be surprised.

Would make sense from both viewpoints let Kiry, Tony Martin, Vermote, Keisse, Stannard, G & Rowe rip the race apart and Movistar don't have the same caliber of domestiques on the flat.

I've always wondered why they didn't take a quality flat chaser like Sütterlin or Sutherland with them. They would probably also be better bottle carriers in flat stages.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Take a look how this is won!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqaENlKxlpQ

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

Source of headwind please?
From the Opening post I see winds blowing NorthWest and that is far from being headwind.

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

40K an hour crosswinds forecast, could be bad for Movistar if Quintana's in a bad position and Sky use their diesels to force a split.

Source of headwind please?
From the Opening post I see winds blowing NorthWest and that is far from being headwind.

https://mobile.twitter.com/inrng/status/752537347430944769

 

[ILovecycling]

Take a look how this is won!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqaENlKxlpQ

I remember that very well,what a day!

Btw can you just start the Ventoux thread @Praying Mantis

 

[cycladianpirate]

Re:

Nairo saved his energy to attack in this day. Expect a long-range shot tomorrow.

It might be an idea to consult a doctor - are you experiencing headaches?

 

[El Pistolero]

Saxo should drill it on the first mountain to get rid of Cavendish.