2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183km)

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Re: Re:

Irondan said:
SeriousSam said:
Contador could still recover and be in a good condition to fight for third. That was probably the most likely place he'd up with in peak condition too.
There's a lot of good competition for the third spot, he might have already lost too much time for that. Maybe top 5. It's crazy that we're even having this conversation after 2 stages... :eek:
Have you taken one look at who we're talking about
 
Re: Re:

mikez said:
HelloDolly said:
Asero831 said:
Wow Valverde can top 5 and Dan Martin can Top 10 here

Porte and Thomas losing huge time

Dan Martin will be in yellow before the week is out
Plus Tinkoff need to get behind Kreuziger now for GC ...he is up to 8th and can climb very well and is looking good

Contador wil bleed time as injured
Agree that it's not looking good for AC, but if he can just hang on, heal up and not loose much more time, he might be able to contend. That's if. More likely I see him continuing to loses time and abandon, which would be a shame but it's a brutal sport.
Bertie is done. You can't heal and compete at this level.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
DFA123 said:
Cance > TheRest said:
DFA123 said:
MacBAir said:
So, this was the best possible stage for Roman and Peter. Peter wins the stage (bosses it), shows everybody that not even the Ardennes are safe. The other Bosses the hill, does a terrific job and sees the leader falter due to injury.

Peter should now be the undisputed leader, and Roman should be their GC guy/Workhorse for finishes like these/breaks.
Dude, it was nothing like the Ardennes. It came after a flat stage not 4000m or so of tough climbing. A flat stage with a fairly challenging uphill sprint was tailor-made for Sagan and he duly delivered. Fair play to him, but he's got a lot of weight to lose before he can challenge for LBL or FW.
Sagan can win on almost any terrain nowadays. It didn't matter today, if it had been a flat stage or a hilly ardennes-like profile. The guy has won mountain stages in Tour de Suisse and he's won the Tour of California by finishing 6th on Mt. Baldy . .
Tbf, the Tour de France is a slightly higher level, with quite a bit more competition, than Suisse or California. He's clearly not going to be challenging in any mountain stages at the Tour unless he gets lucky in a break.
That was not what I was suggesting. The point that you are missing is merely that Sagan would have been there in the finale again today, even if the profile had been hillier. The reason he beat Alaphilippe (which I assume is the rider you are trying to defend here) was not that it had been a flat stage, but that he's simply better on these types of finishes, got better endurance and obviously is a smarter rider.
It should also be noted that Valverde wasn't far off Alaphilippe in the end - different story ofcourse.
You said Sagan can win on almost any terrain nowdays. He can't - not in the Tour de France. He can win on an uphill sprint like today (and tomorrow) and he can win a flat sprint at the end of a moderately hilly stage, when the fastest men have been dropped. He hasn't won any other type of stage at the Tour since 2012 - because, unlike in Suisse or California - at the Tour there are 4 or 5 specialists on top form for each type of terrain.
 
Re: Re:

wirral said:
hrotha said:
There's always something about Porte.
He has loser mentality. In the normal world = nice guy, polite, obliging. In professional sport = loser.
I don't even... First, he lost time due to a flat tire, nothing to do with this ''mentality''. Second, he's not your average nice guy outside the bike, so, if anything, the opposite. He was unlucky.
 

KGB

Apr 16, 2015
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Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
DFA123 said:
Cance > TheRest said:
DFA123 said:
MacBAir said:
So, this was the best possible stage for Roman and Peter. Peter wins the stage (bosses it), shows everybody that not even the Ardennes are safe. The other Bosses the hill, does a terrific job and sees the leader falter due to injury.

Peter should now be the undisputed leader, and Roman should be their GC guy/Workhorse for finishes like these/breaks.
Dude, it was nothing like the Ardennes. It came after a flat stage not 4000m or so of tough climbing. A flat stage with a fairly challenging uphill sprint was tailor-made for Sagan and he duly delivered. Fair play to him, but he's got a lot of weight to lose before he can challenge for LBL or FW.
Sagan can win on almost any terrain nowadays. It didn't matter today, if it had been a flat stage or a hilly ardennes-like profile. The guy has won mountain stages in Tour de Suisse and he's won the Tour of California by finishing 6th on Mt. Baldy . .
Tbf, the Tour de France is a slightly higher level, with quite a bit more competition, than Suisse or California. He's clearly not going to be challenging in any mountain stages at the Tour unless he gets lucky in a break.
That was not what I was suggesting. The point that you are missing is merely that Sagan would have been there in the finale again today, even if the profile had been hillier. The reason he beat Alaphilippe (which I assume is the rider you are trying to defend here) was not that it had been a flat stage, but that he's simply better on these types of finishes, got better endurance and obviously is a smarter rider.
It should also be noted that Valverde wasn't far off Alaphilippe in the end - different story ofcourse.
Hopefully for a few years he will not do same silly ''lose weight'' experiment when Cannondale did with him.Ardennes could keep Alap.Now just run away from Yates cocaine classes(Oleg wants some).
 
what is this useless arguing for? if chubby valgren can get second in amstel so can sagan...and considering how poor LBL has been recently he would have a decent chance in that too

no chance in fleche wallone

but its still useless because he wont ride ardennes classics anytime soon,unless he wins PR multiple times (or at least two) he aint gonna ride ardennes,it just doesnt fit his calendar and marketing duties
 

KGB

Apr 16, 2015
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Porte could be happy again.He is back to his favorite role.For two weeks for TVG and then last week for Vroome.Tax man should check his Sky contract(not sure was terminated yet.).
 
Jul 6, 2015
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Re: Re:

Son of Amsterhammer said:
mikez said:
HelloDolly said:
Asero831 said:
Wow Valverde can top 5 and Dan Martin can Top 10 here

Porte and Thomas losing huge time

Dan Martin will be in yellow before the week is out
Plus Tinkoff need to get behind Kreuziger now for GC ...he is up to 8th and can climb very well and is looking good

Contador wil bleed time as injured[/quo

Agree that it's not looking good for AC, but if he can just hang on, heal up and not loose much more time, he might be able to contend. That's if. More likely I see him continuing to loses time and abandon, which would be a shame but it's a brutal sport.
Bertie is done. You can't heal and compete at this level.
Most likely correct. Still, one never knows.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

MacBAir said:
DFA123 said:
MacBAir said:
Did you miss the part where he podiumed Amstell and where 70 riders or more reach the last climb of LBL, a cobbled climb? Answer this, please.

Also, not sprinting at the end of Strade had something to do with other factors (shape, mind, pressure). He also showed more consistency on those races than any other rider.
Whatever; I can see you're a Sagan fanboy. I'm not criticizing him; he's obviously a great rider - the most talented in the world imo - but he can't win Liege or FW in his current shape. Amstel he'd have an outside chance. I'll leave it at that.
For starters, Amstell is also an ardenne classic. He podiumed there when he was weaker. So everybody knows that he could win that race.

FW is a Muur sprint and nothing more. I believe that indeed he is too heavy for that one.

LBL... When it doesn't end on a bunch sprint, 70 riders reach the last hill, and if the best puncheur on the planet is there (Peter), and he is also the best guy on cobbled climbs, the best guy on tricky descents, much stronger than other candidates for LBL on the flat, and has the stamina and consistency to do monster performances and win Road Championships and monuments based on explosive cobbled climbs. He can win LBL. Alone.

It's like you havent been watching LBL at all and have no idea of how the race is ridden, at least in the last few years.
Well he should try then. Perhaps you could persuade him to do that! I mean, maybe guy is not aware of that. You could open his eyes :lol:
 
Jun 13, 2016
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Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
MacBAir said:
It's like you havent been watching LBL at all and have no idea of how the race is ridden, at least in the last few years.
It's like you haven't looked at the list of LBL winners at all and have no idea about who actually wins the race or even podiums it, at least in the last few years. The heaviest guy to be a serious contender in a long time was Philippe Gilbert and he was very considerably lighter than Sagan is now.
Again, so if Sagan wasn't the first over the line today (and other countless situations) he wouldn't be able to win because look at who makes the rest of the top 10 (GC riders and LBL candidates/winners)? If you watch the races, you will see that Gerrans and Valverde both won bunch sprints with dozens, dozens and more dozens of riders. They didn't won those editions because they were the best climbers, they won because they had the strongest sprint in that bunch.

And now, the deciding factor between a bunch sprint and winning alone/small group is a cobbled climb. Guess who's the guy that more than any other, could destroy the group on that climb and finish it alone? Yeah, it's the same guy that would be the favorite on a smaller bunch sprint.

And you are telling me that he would've to lose this and that when he would be the favorite on the most commom situations/finishes of the last few years? What about all of those stages (Tour, Tirreno, Suisse, etc.) where those behind him where GC riders? He can go up with the best on the FIRST few medium mountain stages.

The only thing that is standing between Sagan bossing/doing great performances/being the favorite for LBL and Amstell is his desire for earlier races and the Ronde and Roubaix and then doing the tour.
 
Re:

saganftw said:
what is this useless arguing for? if chubby valgren can get second in amstel so can sagan...and considering how poor LBL has been recently he would have a decent chance in that too

no chance in fleche wallone

but its still useless because he wont ride ardennes classics anytime soon,unless he wins PR multiple times (or at least two) he aint gonna ride ardennes,it just doesnt fit his calendar and marketing duties
LBL is not usually very exciting these days, but that does not mean that it is easy enough for Sagan. The often bigger group towards the end is full of near dead riders and the ones who win or podium are still the same little climber/puncheurs. There has been no increase in the number of guys with a sprinters buttocks fighting for the win at LBL. The actual contenders range from about 16kgs to 6kgs lighter than Sagan.

I do actually think that Sagan is enough of a freak talent to challenge for the win at LBL, but only if he geared his training and preparation around that kind of race. I don't think for a second that he could just rock up there with his current shape (in both senses of the word) and be a serious threat.

As you say though, we are unlikely to find out any time soon.
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
DFA123 said:
Bit disappointed by Matthews today. Perhaps feeling the effects of his injury, but he shouldn't really have managed to lose wheels in those final 500m.
I would say the opposite, that it was a good ride by Matthews. He was only beaten by Sagan, who is a freak, and the Fleche podium.
Agree with this post - Thought the finish would be too tough for Matthews - More interested in Gerrans hauling A.Yates up the final climb - How roles have changed.
 
Re: Re:

MacBAir said:
If you watch the races, you will see that Gerrans and Valverde both won bunch sprints with dozens, dozens and more dozens of riders.
I can't blame you for not watching Liege Bastogne Liege these days as it is not a particularly exciting race. I can on the other hand blame you for not watching Liege Bastogne Liege and then confidently talking complete nonsense about it.

Neither of those editions featured "bunch sprints with dozens, dozens and more dozens of riders". Both of those editions were won by men much lighter than Sagan, all of the podium finishers in both editions were much lighter than Sagan. And indeed in neither of those editions did anyone remotely close to Sagan's weight finish in the top 10. Once more: Nobody remotely close to Sagan's weight has been a serious contender at LBL for many, many years. That is not a coincidence and a recent tendency towards larger groups before the final climb has not changed the type of rider who actually wins or podiums.

While I can understand that Sagan can sometimes give the impression that the laws of physics don't apply to him, that's not in fact the case. I do think that he could be competitive in LBL, but that's not at all the same as imagining that he could just roll up with his current shape and form and be so.
 

Irondan

Administrator
Moderator
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
Irondan said:
SeriousSam said:
Contador could still recover and be in a good condition to fight for third. That was probably the most likely place he'd up with in peak condition too.
There's a lot of good competition for the third spot, he might have already lost too much time for that. Maybe top 5. It's crazy that we're even having this conversation after 2 stages... :eek:
Have you taken one look at who we're talking about
I know who he is, I also know that trying to make up so much time already against people that aren't hurt is very difficult. I want him to podium just as bad as anyone else, I'm just being pragmatic..
 
Jun 13, 2016
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Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
MacBAir said:
If you watch the races, you will see that Gerrans and Valverde both won bunch sprints with dozens, dozens and more dozens of riders.
I can't blame you for not watching Liege Bastogne Liege these days as it is not a particularly exciting race. I can on the other hand blame you for not watching Liege Bastogne Liege and then confidently talking complete nonsense about it.

Neither of those editions featured "bunch sprints with dozens, dozens and more dozens of riders". Both of those editions were won by men much lighter than Sagan, all of the podium finishers in both editions were much lighter than Sagan. And indeed in neither of those editions did anyone remotely close to Sagan's weight finish in the top 10. Once more: Nobody remotely close to Sagan's weight has been a serious contender at LBL for many, many years. That is not a coincidence and a recent tendency towards larger groups before the final climb has not changed the type of rider who actually wins or podiums.

While I can understand that Sagan can sometimes give the impression that the laws of physics don't apply to him, that's not in fact the case. I do think that he could be competitive in LBL, but that's not at all the same as imagining that he could just roll up with his current shape and form and be so.
If you go to PCS and see the results from LBL in 2014, 2015, and today's tour stage, you will see that the only reason that validates the fact that no one "remotely close to Sagan's weight" was in the top 10, was because Sagan itself wasn't there contesting those races, or GVA (he did top 10, didn't he?).

Again, what has been happening at LBL is a mini-Peloton before the last difficulty. After that last difficulty, any differences (if any) are in the low seconds between "groups". How can someone think that if Sagan was at this years LBL with his earlier shape, like at the RVV, he would be dropped in the last cobbled hill where tiny differences were made? It seems obvious to me that, in fact, he would be the one dropping them!
 
Re: Re:

Irondan said:
Red Rick said:
Irondan said:
SeriousSam said:
Contador could still recover and be in a good condition to fight for third. That was probably the most likely place he'd up with in peak condition too.
There's a lot of good competition for the third spot, he might have already lost too much time for that. Maybe top 5. It's crazy that we're even having this conversation after 2 stages... :eek:
Have you taken one look at who we're talking about
I know who he is, I also know that trying to make up so much time already against people that aren't hurt is very difficult. I want him to podium just as bad as anyone else, I'm just being pragmatic..
I just think that 9-0-0 or 7-0-0 looks better with the zero's than a silly 1 in there
 
Aug 31, 2012
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No, it looks, and is, worse, though I concede a zero feeds that naive 'only for the win!' romanticism.
 

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