2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 196km

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

He still has a decent chance at top 10, I think that and the points jersey is his goal for the race.

So you were wrong?

 

[Red Rick]

For the TT, Quintana did very well in the TT in the 3rd week of last years Vuelta, in a Vuelta where he was climbing worse, and in a year in which he was TT'ing worse. I also don't put Froome on Dumoulin level TT'ing, so I think it would be very close.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

1- The Calp TT is one of the flattest TTs introduced in the Vuelta recently (only last year Burgos was flatter)
2- The bends is a 3km segment in la Fustera and its not that tight. Plus bends might favor Froome more than Quintana leaving the quality gap in TT almos unchanged.
3- If you want Quintana to have increasing chances you better start praying for a no-wind day, which, given the location of Xabia and Calp, Cycling Poseidons won't listen to you most probably.

It may well be one of the flattest TTs used in recent Vuelta's; but, that's not really relevant. The point is, that it's not flat.

And it is way more bendy than you are making out. I ride these roads pretty regularly, and can confidently say that the profile doesn't do it's difficulty justice. It's not the kind of circuit where you can sit into a steady rhythm and just churn a big gear throughout - it's way more stop-start.

Don't think the wind will be much of a factor either, unless la gota fría comes in. Because the prevailing wind comes from the east, and most of the route is shielded by hills in that direction.

For instance, today and tomorrow it is 15 kph wind blowing from SSW. Which means it is headwind in the second part of the TT. If TTwould have been ridden tomorrow it would have been a massacre for the little man. Anyway we'll see come Friday.

 

[Sky train]

Re: Re:

Big Chris has executed perfect defense today, I guess you agree that we know this race winner's name.
On Quintana's place I would rather consentrated on defending 2nd position, 2 minutes advantage over Konig/Yates not that comfortable considering his TT level.

july fans in september

Just couldn't stop watching cycling with Tour-Vuelta double on sight

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He still has a decent chance at top 10, I think that and the points jersey is his goal for the race.

So you were wrong?

about what?

 

[yaco]

Well deserved stage win by Gesink - A tactically interesting stage which show what can be done with different strategy.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

1- The Calp TT is one of the flattest TTs introduced in the Vuelta recently (only last year Burgos was flatter)
2- The bends is a 3km segment in la Fustera and its not that tight. Plus bends might favor Froome more than Quintana leaving the quality gap in TT almos unchanged.
3- If you want Quintana to have increasing chances you better start praying for a no-wind day, which, given the location of Xabia and Calp, Cycling Poseidons won't listen to you most probably.

It may well be one of the flattest TTs used in recent Vuelta's; but, that's not really relevant. The point is, that it's not flat.

And it is way more bendy than you are making out. I ride these roads pretty regularly, and can confidently say that the profile doesn't do it's difficulty justice. It's not the kind of circuit where you can sit into a steady rhythm and just churn a big gear throughout - it's way more stop-start.

Don't think the wind will be much of a factor either, unless la gota fría comes in. Because the prevailing wind comes from the east, and most of the route is shielded by hills in that direction.

Today and tomorrow it is 15kph wind blowing from SSW. Which means it is headwind in the second part of the TT.

OK.

But that's not the weather forecast for the stage, so not really sure of the relevance. And it's not an especially strong wind anyway.

 

[ontheroad]

Froome has to be big favourite after today, it certainly hasn't been a dull Vuelta anyway!!!

 

[dacooley]

Re:

For the TT, Quintana did very well in the TT in the 3rd week of last years Vuelta, in a Vuelta where he was climbing worse, and in a year in which he was TT'ing worse. I also don't put Froome on Dumoulin level TT'ing, so I think it would be very close.

I wouldn't put the Vuelta Dimoulin who was fatigued by fighting against climbers in gc on the level of the GC free Tour Dimoulin

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

He still has a decent chance at top 10, I think that and the points jersey is his goal for the race.

So you were wrong?

about what?

Firstly, he's not out of the top 10. And secondly, I never once thought it was safe; cracking on this stage was always a decent possibility. Anyway, despite the result today, he still certainly has a chance at top 5, maybe even podium.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

For the TT, Quintana did very well in the TT in the 3rd week of last years Vuelta, in a Vuelta where he was climbing worse, and in a year in which he was TT'ing worse. I also don't put Froome on Dumoulin level TT'ing, so I think it would be very close.

I wouldn't put the Vuelta Dimoulin who was fatigued by fighting against climbers in gc on the level of the GC free Tour Dimoulin

Dumoulin absolutely smashed that TT. He was in the form of his life and won it by over a minute, ahead of the likes of Kiryienka and Coppel (in WC medalling form). I don't think anyone in the world would have got close to him - fatigue or not. Certainly not a Vuelta level Froome.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Chaves will win this Vuelta, calling it now.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He still has a decent chance at top 10, I think that and the points jersey is his goal for the race.

So you were wrong?

about what?

Firstly, he's not out of the top 10. And secondly, I never once thought it was safe; cracking on this stage was always a decent possibility. Anyway, despite the result today, he still certainly has a chance at top 5, maybe even podium.

I think he still has strong chance for the top 10, perhaps higher. Depends how Movistar tactics it though; presumably he will go in lots of breaks to either help quintana late on or gain time/ challenge stage wins himself.

Surely, you can not be surprised that he cracked once in this race. With this stage the biggest possibility

 

[laurensde+]

Re:

Chaves will win this Vuelta, calling it now.

Cool. How much does he beat Froome by in the ITT?

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

For the TT, Quintana did very well in the TT in the 3rd week of last years Vuelta, in a Vuelta where he was climbing worse, and in a year in which he was TT'ing worse. I also don't put Froome on Dumoulin level TT'ing, so I think it would be very close.

I wouldn't put the Vuelta Dimoulin who was fatigued by fighting against climbers in gc on the level of the GC free Tour Dimoulin

Dumoulin absolutely smashed that TT. He was in the form of his life and won it by over a minute, ahead of the likes of Kiryienka and Coppel (in WC medalling form). I don't think anyone in the world would have got close to him - fatigue or not. Certainly not a Vuelta level Froome.

well, if you find 1.30 a healthy average gap between dimoulin and quintana for 40 km time trial, I might disagree.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Bobby almost made me cry with his slow-mo 400 metres sprint. Great to see him back on the podium!

Also, finally a good performance from Formolo.

It's funny it looks like a slow mo sprint. It's actually quite fast uphill. It's simply a huge gear he is turning. Same way he outsprinted Froome on La Covadonga. It's not as slow as it looks

I thought I was watching a different race when they showed the overhead replay of the finish.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

For the TT, Quintana did very well in the TT in the 3rd week of last years Vuelta, in a Vuelta where he was climbing worse, and in a year in which he was TT'ing worse. I also don't put Froome on Dumoulin level TT'ing, so I think it would be very close.

I wouldn't put the Vuelta Dimoulin who was fatigued by fighting against climbers in gc on the level of the GC free Tour Dimoulin

Dumoulin absolutely smashed that TT. He was in the form of his life and won it by over a minute, ahead of the likes of Kiryienka and Coppel (in WC medalling form). I don't think anyone in the world would have got close to him - fatigue or not. Certainly not a Vuelta level Froome.

well, if you find 1.30 a healthy average gap between dimoulin and quintana for 40 km time trial, I might disagree.

That's a circular argument. You can't claim Quintana's TT last year was not so impressive because it was against a sub-par Dumoulin. And the only evidence for a sub-par Dumoulin was that he only beat 1'30 to Quintana.

It was a great performance by Quintana, who is now a very competent TTist. I think in all TTs this year he finished 2nd, 6th, 1st, 20th and 10th.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

Gesink WINS!
And I saw the stage LIVE. WTF. The universe must have cracked today. We're doomed.

I'm very happy for you, but the orange curse isn't lifted until a Dutch rider podiums, preferably wins, a GT.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Maybe Froome didn't attack because Konig was up the road and didn't want to drag anyone to him? Could be a possibility with Sky trying to get another rider high in GC because Vuelta

LOL.

Thanks for the good laugh. :lol:

Konig doing a Moreno or viceversa. Well Moreno tried at the end.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

He still has a decent chance at top 10, I think that and the points jersey is his goal for the race.

So you were wrong?

about what?

Firstly, he's not out of the top 10. And secondly, I never once thought it was safe; cracking on this stage was always a decent possibility. Anyway, despite the result today, he still certainly has a chance at top 5, maybe even podium.

I think he still has strong chance for the top 10, perhaps higher. Depends how Movistar tactics it though; presumably he will go in lots of breaks to either help quintana late on or gain time/ challenge stage wins himself.

Surely, you can not be surprised that he cracked once in this race. With this stage the biggest possibility

You seem unable to admit you were wrong.

 

[Inquitus]

Re: Re:

Maybe Froome didn't attack because Konig was up the road and didn't want to drag anyone to him? Could be a possibility with Sky trying to get another rider high in GC because Vuelta

LOL.

Thanks for the good laugh. :lol:

Konig doing a Moreno or viceversa. Well Moreno tried at the end.

I'd say Froome didn't attack because all he needs to do to win the Vuelta is follow Quintana's wheel at this point. Probably also a case of once bitten twice shy after blowing himself up last week as well. I take it we are all in agreement that Froome will take at least the 54 seconds he currently trails by in the ITT?

 

[Escarabajo]

I am very happy for Gesink. Finally. Well deserved.

A bit sad about Valverde. But like one forum member said before, he needed to be treated like a time bomb and today he exploded.

What's up with Moreno and Konig. Did not understand the tactics at the beginning. At the end Moreno tried to help Quintana.

People still using Quintana and Froome as a reference for Contador. Why? he has been overtaken by other riders now and the other two didn't care about his position anyway. He needs to do his own race.

I think Quintana TT is good but he needs more time. This TT is flattish and doesn't favor Quintana. The other time trials where he has done very good is because it had more hills. I don't understand why some people expected Froome to attack. He has no reason to do that TBH. Besides he looks on the limit.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

Chaves will win this Vuelta, calling it now.

Cool. How much does he beat Froome by in the ITT?

My powers cannot predict time trials .

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

You seem unable to admit you were wrong.

Not sure what you mean here. I'm wrong all the time, but I do genuinely think he has a chance of making top 10 still - above all if he targets that instead of working for Quintana.

 

[staubsauger]

Wow. The last time most of the forum had a consensus was when Leipheimer won the Tour de Suisse! But even Karsten Migels said in advance that he easily would grant Gesink to win the stage today. Mission accomplished!