2017 Tour of Flanders / Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 2, 260k

Flamin · Mar 30, 2017

Re:

Mr.White said:
I would send Boonen or Terpstra quite early in the attack, or even both! QS needs to put huge pressure on GVA and Sagan, and the best thing to do that is to send big riders. Lampaert or Vermote or even Trentin wouldn't do the job. Second pass of Kwaremont is the latest point where should they strike. After that is too late, and then only Gilbert can fight with the biggest favorites

Why is second Kwaremont the latest point? I don't remember what happened in 2012 before final Kwaremont-Paterberg (nothing I think), but since then, all key 'early' moves were made between km 25-40 from the finish. That's where you want Boonen, Terpstra and Styby to try and go.

Of course they have to try and toughen up the race before, be in every move, instigate attacks and see who joins etc. but not with the big guns. It's suicide on the new route.

SafeBet · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

Flamin said:
Why is second Kwaremont the latest point? I don't remember what happened in 2012 before final Kwaremont-Paterberg (nothing I think), but since then, all key 'early' moves were made between km 25-40 from the finish. That's where you want Boonen, Terpstra and Styby to try and go.

The general feeling is that they have exactly zero chances of staying with Sagan/GVA if they wait for the last Kwaremont/Paterberg.

Flamin · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

SafeBet said:
Flamin said:

Why is second Kwaremont the latest point? I don't remember what happened in 2012 before final Kwaremont-Paterberg (nothing I think), but since then, all key 'early' moves were made between km 25-40 from the finish. That's where you want Boonen, Terpstra and Styby to try and go.

Click to expand...

The general feeling is that they have exactly zero chances of staying with Sagan/GVA if they wait for the last Kwaremont/Paterberg.

I know, that's why I said between km 25-40...

portugal11 · Mar 30, 2017

Ettix should attack with more than 60 km to go. They have to destroy the peloton in the bergs and after that they have to attack in flat and unprotected roads

Jagartrott · Mar 30, 2017

Hardly any wind expected on Sunday...

VO2 Max · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

Sciatic said:
I quite enjoy these "what's in a name" discussions (at least the postings without the bigotry)--they are a cultural education on the fly!

+1. This is one of the great things about our sport, we get to learn about all these cool places and cool languages that just never come up otherwise. I think if I followed only UK news and sport I'd assume everyone in Belgium speaks only French.

Sciatic said:
Ironic, though, that despite the anglicizing of so many race names, for the most famous race (for non-forumites) most English news and journal outlets use the French spelling (In case you missed it, "de" is not an English conjunction).

No coincidence that French is the only other language we bother with any school education in! "Tour de France" is funny ofc because the first and last words are spelled the same but pronounced differently in English, and sports presenters are never sure whether you say the whole thing in English, like Toor duh Frarnce, or to put on their best French accent which usually comes out Toor de Frons.

But yeah, best race of the year coming up. Depends massively on QS having something more imaginative up their sleeves than they've shown lately. Their defensive tactics wrt Sagan is only really suiting GVA at the moment so they have to do something differently. Probably they'll leave Stybar marking Sagan as they've been doing, but that leaves plenty of options to get up the road early and form a bridgehead for Gilbert to cross to in the finale. As good as he looks at the moment, it's a big ask to get away from Sagan and GVA on the OK or Paterberg and hold a gap on that long flat run-in considering both those two will fancy their sprints and be prepared to work together. You want guys ahead so Phil can go much earlier, right at the start of the 'red section' even, join up with teammates then go steadier on the OK/Ptg to save some gas for the run in.

pink_jersey · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

Flamin said:
SafeBet said:

Flamin said:

Why is second Kwaremont the latest point? I don't remember what happened in 2012 before final Kwaremont-Paterberg (nothing I think), but since then, all key 'early' moves were made between km 25-40 from the finish. That's where you want Boonen, Terpstra and Styby to try and go.

Click to expand...

The general feeling is that they have exactly zero chances of staying with Sagan f they wait for the last Kwaremont/Paterberg.

Click to expand...

I know, that's why I said between km 25-40...

Fixed.
Even if GVA it's incredibly strong right now, Kwaremont isn't ideal for him. It's more a power climb than an explosive one. He can't follow the likes of Cancellara/Sagan there but he can be on par with them on Paterberg. I remember two years ago, he sat on Oss wheel all climb. Also, three years ago he couldn't drop Vandenbergh there, but distanced him easily on Paterberg.

Akuryo · Mar 30, 2017

Now it's official: Boonen, Gilbert, Terpstra, Stybar, Vermote, Keisse, Lampaert and Trentin. I thought that maybe Devenies, Declercq or Bauer had a slight chance to make the squad but these are probably the best 8 guys they could take. Impressive lineup.

Valv.Piti · Mar 30, 2017

Re:

Akuryo said:
Now it's official: Boonen, Gilbert, Terpstra, Stybar, Vermote, Keisse, Lampaert and Trentin. I thought that maybe Devenies, Declercq or Bauer had a slight chance to make the squad but these are probably the best 8 guys they could take. Impressive lineup.

4, maybe even 5 (!!) riders with better chances of winning de Ronde than Boonen. Tells something about how Tom has gotten progressively worse and worse on the hellingen and how he has shifted his main focus for Roubaix, but most of all how good this team really is..

rghysens · Mar 30, 2017

Re: 2017 Tour of Flanders / Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 2,

My favorites:

5*) GVA, Sagan
4*) Gilbert, Degenkolb
3*) Stybar, Terpstra, Naesen, EBH
2*) Boonen, Keukeleire, Kristoff, Trentin, Van Marcke
1*) Chavanel, Stuyven, Theuns, Colbrelli, Durbridge, Matthews, Rowe

A long distance attack by a team (read: QS)? The problem is that there's a stretch of 50km(from Tenbosse to the 2nd Kwaremont climb) on wide roads, without too much difficulties (OK, there's the Muur, but it is preceded by 10 and followed by 20 featureless km). And from the 2nd Kwaremont climb all favorites will be alert enough not to let a dangerous group ride, provided they are good enough.

Max Rockatansky · Mar 30, 2017

Re: 2017 Tour of Flanders / Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 2,

What do you guys think about the Pirazzi of the North Classics? André Greipel totally focussed his spring on Ronde and Paris-Roubaix. He skipped Sanremo for these two races.

therhodeo · Mar 30, 2017

Quik Step need to have Terpstra in Sagans back pocket from mile 1 just to mess with him. I feel like right now he could be goaded into making tactical mistakes.

Gigs_98 · Mar 30, 2017

Re:

therhodeo said:
Quik Step need to have Terpstra in Sagans back pocket from mile 1 just to mess with him. I feel like right now he could be goaded into making tactical mistakes.

And QS has already used that weakness superbly last sunday :lol:

therhodeo · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
therhodeo said:

Quik Step need to have Terpstra in Sagans back pocket from mile 1 just to mess with him. I feel like right now he could be goaded into making tactical mistakes.

Click to expand...

And QS has already used that weakness superbly last sunday :lol:

I'm sadistic so I'd have Terpstra bringing him bottles and everything.

"Hey Peter"
"Peter are you doing ok? I'm here if you need me."
"Peter how about an attack? You go first and I'll be right behind you."
"No gummy bears for you if you keep letting people up the road Peter."

Gigs_98 · Mar 30, 2017

Re: 2017 Tour of Flanders / Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 2,

Does anyone know why Pöstlberger isn't riding? I just find it strange that the guy who got fifth in E3 doesn't ride the ronde especially considering that Sagan's team isn't very strong.

DFA123 · Mar 30, 2017

Re: Re:

therhodeo said:
Gigs_98 said:

therhodeo said:

Quik Step need to have Terpstra in Sagans back pocket from mile 1 just to mess with him. I feel like right now he could be goaded into making tactical mistakes.

Click to expand...

And QS has already used that weakness superbly last sunday :lol:

Click to expand...

I'm sadistic so I'd have Terpstra bringing him bottles and everything.

"Hey Peter"
"Peter are you doing ok? I'm here if you need me."
"Peter how about an attack? You go first and I'll be right behind you."
"No gummy bears for you if you keep letting people up the road Peter."

If they could convince Terpstra to give up his own chances of winning that would be a pretty sound strategy. Sagan should have kept cool really - by cracking like he did last week he's shown a weakness that other teams will surely look to exploit now.

Max Rockatansky · Mar 30, 2017