2018 La Fleche Wallonne

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Five years ago Valverde had a lot more opposition in this race. I agree with others in that this race has gone backwards in prestige compared to some of the newer ones. It is too predictable and also relatively short and the route never seems to break up the field. Still I will watch it to see if Valverde can be beaten but the odds are against it.

Prestige is the same, but the opposition is weaker I agree. We don't have Purito, Dani Moreno anymore, Gilbert in his best climbing days, old master Rebellin... But I have to point out that Valverde is in his prime at the steep stuff, he never was in this kind of form before (pre-2014)

If the competition is weaker than the prestige is obviously not the same anymore. Froome was second on the Mur de Huy stage in the Tour yet he can't be arsed to start here. I also just read Dan Martin's interview and he's the perfect example as to why I have lost all respect for hilly classic "specialists".

What did Dan Martin say?

He wants a sprint with Alaphilippe and Valverde on Mur de Huy.

He's using the same tactics that will get him beat again. I can't respect such a rider. He's afraid to risk everything like Nibali or Contador would do.

He's been beaten, what... four or five times in a row now? And he still thinks using the same tactic will work.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Five years ago Valverde had a lot more opposition in this race. I agree with others in that this race has gone backwards in prestige compared to some of the newer ones. It is too predictable and also relatively short and the route never seems to break up the field. Still I will watch it to see if Valverde can be beaten but the odds are against it.

Prestige is the same, but the opposition is weaker I agree. We don't have Purito, Dani Moreno anymore, Gilbert in his best climbing days, old master Rebellin... But I have to point out that Valverde is in his prime at the steep stuff, he never was in this kind of form before (pre-2014)

If the competition is weaker than the prestige is obviously not the same anymore. Froome was second on the Mur de Huy stage in the Tour yet he can't be arsed to start here. I also just read Dan Martin's interview and he's the perfect example as to why I have lost all respect for hilly classic "specialists".

What did Dan Martin say?

He wants a sprint with Alaphilippe and Valverde on Mur de Huy.

He's using the same tactics that will get him beat again. I can't respect such a rider. He's afraid to risk everything like Nibali or Contador would do.

He's been beaten, what... four or five times in a row now? And he still thinks using the same tactic will work.

Yeah Valverde is too strong for Martin on a finish like that, Valverde wins that match up nine times out of ten and the tenth time Valverde punctures on the climb..............one of Martin's best wins was in the Tour of Lombardy.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Mollema has often, no, almost always, rode the Ardennes with the goal of doing well / peaking in them even. But never achieved more than some top 10's. So it's not true it's not their focus. They are, more often than not, not explosive enough vs real classic specialists.

Mollema isn't really a dude who's very good outside his peak GTs, and he's simply not that good. That plays more of a role. Bardet is up there in Liege and he's about as pure a climber as they come.

At the same time, you look at Mollema’s San Sebastián win, (strong field, attack over the final climb, do just enough to stay clear of a confused chase on the run-in) and you have to think the guy has the ability to win a LBL or GDL, no less than Martin or Poels or Chavez.

 

[yaco]

I wonder why Roglic is not riding Fleche - Reckon he could have got a top 5.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Mollema has often, no, almost always, rode the Ardennes with the goal of doing well / peaking in them even. But never achieved more than some top 10's. So it's not true it's not their focus. They are, more often than not, not explosive enough vs real classic specialists.

Mollema isn't really a dude who's very good outside his peak GTs, and he's simply not that good. That plays more of a role. Bardet is up there in Liege and he's about as pure a climber as they come.

Not entirely true, he was pretty good in San Sebastian a couple of times I'd say :lol:

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yeah Valverde is too strong for Martin on a finish like that, Valverde wins that match up nine times out of ten and the tenth time Valverde punctures on the climb..............one of Martin's best wins was in the Tour of Lombardy.

Valverde would have decent chances of beating Martin on Mur de Huy even with a puncture.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Five years ago Valverde had a lot more opposition in this race. I agree with others in that this race has gone backwards in prestige compared to some of the newer ones. It is too predictable and also relatively short and the route never seems to break up the field. Still I will watch it to see if Valverde can be beaten but the odds are against it.

Prestige is the same, but the opposition is weaker I agree. We don't have Purito, Dani Moreno anymore, Gilbert in his best climbing days, old master Rebellin... But I have to point out that Valverde is in his prime at the steep stuff, he never was in this kind of form before (pre-2014)

If the competition is weaker than the prestige is obviously not the same anymore. Froome was second on the Mur de Huy stage in the Tour yet he can't be arsed to start here. I also just read Dan Martin's interview and he's the perfect example as to why I have lost all respect for hilly classic "specialists".

What did Dan Martin say?

He wants a sprint with Alaphilippe and Valverde on Mur de Huy.

He's using the same tactics that will get him beat again. I can't respect such a rider. He's afraid to risk everything like Nibali or Contador would do.

He's been beaten, what... four or five times in a row now? And he still thinks using the same tactic will work.

He's not going to beat Valverde in a flat sprint either.

 

[Laplaz]

Ok, to be beaten by Valverde on Mur de Huy isn't a shame. But helping Movistar to do the whole work knowing that 99,99% Valverde will win, is indeed a shame. Why not trying launching attacks in order to decimate Movistar instead of helping them? And if these attacks wont't stick, you have still a man who can try the impossible on the Mur of Huy. For exampls QS should send their men onto attack, and only if nothing sticks they can back Alaphilippe for Huy, without doing work.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Ok, to be beaten by Valverde on Mur de Huy isn't a shame. But helping Movistar to do the whole work knowing that 99,99% Valverde will win, is indeed a shame. Why not trying launching attacks in order to decimate Movistar instead of helping them? And if these attacks wont't stick, you have still a man who can try the impossible on the Mur of Huy. For exampls QS should send their men onto attack, and only if nothing sticks they can back Alaphilippe for Huy, without doing work.

Yes, that's the way to race.
I understand that most teams will not risk a top 10 by being the only team that's sending their main guy on the attack before the Mur, but they really should send someone on the attack.

 

[Koronin]

It seems to me that we have a situation here (at least for now while Valverde is this strong) that a bunch of teams are willing to play the same game and give Valverde the win if they are assured they have a great shot at a top 10 if not a top 5 or even podium in certain cases.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

It seems to me that we have a situation here (at least for now while Valverde is this strong) that a bunch of teams are willing to play the same game and give Valverde the win if they are assured they have a great shot at a top 10 if not a top 5 or even podium in certain cases.

Yeah, but you can actually get those places being agressive too.

 

[Velolover2]

Who are Baharin riding for? Gasparotto and Gorka Izagirre are both explosive enough to wait for the Mur.

But Nibali and brother Ion really aren't.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Ok, to be beaten by Valverde on Mur de Huy isn't a shame. But helping Movistar to do the whole work knowing that 99,99% Valverde will win, is indeed a shame. Why not trying launching attacks in order to decimate Movistar instead of helping them? And if these attacks wont't stick, you have still a man who can try the impossible on the Mur of Huy. For exampls QS should send their men onto attack, and only if nothing sticks they can back Alaphilippe for Huy, without doing work.

That still puzzles me. Why would other teams help Movistar chase the breakaway.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Ok, to be beaten by Valverde on Mur de Huy isn't a shame. But helping Movistar to do the whole work knowing that 99,99% Valverde will win, is indeed a shame. Why not trying launching attacks in order to decimate Movistar instead of helping them? And if these attacks wont't stick, you have still a man who can try the impossible on the Mur of Huy. For exampls QS should send their men onto attack, and only if nothing sticks they can back Alaphilippe for Huy, without doing work.

That still puzzles me. Why would other teams help Movistar chase the breakaway.

Because they missed out on the break and they want to ensure their safe top 10 finishing position. At least that's my best guess.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Who are Baharin riding for? Gasparotto and Gorka Izagirre are both explosive enough to wait for the Mur.

But Nibali and brother Ion really aren't.

Nobody in particular, you need a teammate to position you on the mur and that's it. Neither Gorka nor Gaspa will win, maybe they have an outside chance at a podium but it would be self-defeating to dedicate everyone around them. Bole and Pellizotti will likely be there at least until the cherave, so there's them, and I suspect either Nibali or Ion will attack before it, at least to see how their legs are and what happens.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

He wants a sprint with Alaphilippe and Valverde on Mur de Huy.

He's using the same tactics that will get him beat again. I can't respect such a rider. He's afraid to risk everything like Nibali or Contador would do.

He's been beaten, what... four or five times in a row now? And he still thinks using the same tactic will work.

From Martin’s POV, a sprint on top of the Mur is his best chance of winning the race. In 2013 he finished 4th to Valverde’s 7th, so he has “beaten” Bala up there, and the nature of some of his rides (usually timing his effort too late) would tend to help him believe that there’s a chance, if he gets it right on the day. And you do have to give some respect to the guy who won’t admit defeat; Martin knows Valverde has beaten him multiple times, but he wants to turn that around. Would you lament the futility of Poulidor lining up for the Tour for the 14th time, knowing he’ll be beaten?


I have to say, if Martin doesn’t win Fleche this year, it’s most likely because he doesn’t currently seem to have the legs, not because of poor strategy on the final climb.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Rolf Gölz – a Flèche Wallonne winner lost in cycling’s digital Neverland

253 kilometres *sigh*

 

[armchairclimber]

I think QS will do the same as last year except they'll maybe try to get Jungels away earlier .... maybe with company. Anyway, I don't care. I am quite giddy with excitement ... I love the Ardennes Classics.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I think QS will do the same as last year except they'll maybe try to get Jungels away earlier .... maybe with company. Anyway, I don't care. I am quite giddy with excitement ... I love the Ardennes Classics.

This wouldn't shock me at all. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Wellens try something. However, I still expect it all to come back together somewhere on the Mur de Huy with the usual results at the finish line.
Now to decide rather I'm staying home to watch live or going to work and checking Movistar's twitter feed while working.

 

[Koronin]

Here are Valverde's stats for Fleche Wallone. (This does include his 2010 results that were stripped for his ban, however included here to show how good he's been over his career).

Valverde's stats at Fleche Wallone:
12 races. 3 finishes outside the top 10. 6 podiums. 5 wins (including 4 in row). He's been on the podium in half of his Fleche Wallone starts and won 41.6% of his starts. Those are some impressive stats for any one race.
2005 - 39th
2006 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 21st
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2012 - 46th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st
2015 - 1st
2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st

Yeah, this is Bala's Playground.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Who are Baharin riding for? Gasparotto and Gorka Izagirre are both explosive enough to wait for the Mur.

But Nibali and brother Ion really aren't.

Gaspa for the sprint, Ion for an attack, Nibali joker deluxe. Let's remember Rik Verbrugghe, Bahrain DS won Fleche in 2001. One Ivan Basso was second.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

@Koronin
You are so involved in tomorrow's victory that I'm really afraid what will happen with you in case of Valverde' defeat...
Relax, that's only cycling..

 

[Koronin]

Re:

@Koronin
You are so involved in tomorrow's victory that I'm really afraid what will happen with you in case of Valverde' defeat...
Relax, that's only cycling..

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

@Koronin
You are so involved in tomorrow's victory that I'm really afraid what will happen with you in case of Valverde' defeat...
Relax, that's only cycling..

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Here are Valverde's stats for Fleche Wallone. (This does include his 2010 results that were stripped for his ban, however included here to show how good he's been over his career).

Valverde's stats at Fleche Wallone:
12 races. 3 finishes outside the top 10. 6 podiums. 5 wins (including 4 in row). He's been on the podium in half of his Fleche Wallone starts and won 41.6% of his starts. Those are some impressive stats for any one race.
2005 - 39th
2006 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 21st
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2012 - 46th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st
2015 - 1st
2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st

Yeah, this is Bala's Playground.

So... what happened in 2012?