2018 La Fleche Wallonne

[Blanco]

It's tough for Dan Martin to use different strategy. If he initiates attack earlier, he risks his whole race. If he escapes alone, or in a weak group it's suicide. The best scenario for him is to wait for some strong rider to attack (Wellens, Kwiat, Gilbert...), and then to leach on that move. But that would hardly pass without Valverde's presence in that same group. It's just so hard for quality break to escape in this race. Maybe this year will be different with the addition of Redoute and Vecquee. Teams who want to attack earlier should really have to up the pace on that climbs, and already start to attack on the first passage of the Mur. I'm talking about Lotto, Sky, Astana, UAE, Quick Step here... Teams have a choice here. They could ride a controlled race here and have a nice view of another Valverde win, or they could try to create chaos, and then only God knows who will win. I know what will I choose.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Here are Valverde's stats for Fleche Wallone. (This does include his 2010 results that were stripped for his ban, however included here to show how good he's been over his career).

Valverde's stats at Fleche Wallone:
12 races. 3 finishes outside the top 10. 6 podiums. 5 wins (including 4 in row). He's been on the podium in half of his Fleche Wallone starts and won 41.6% of his starts. Those are some impressive stats for any one race.
2005 - 39th
2006 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 21st
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2012 - 46th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st
2015 - 1st
2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st

Yeah, this is Bala's Playground.

So... what happened in 2012?

Valverde didn't hit real good form in 2012 until the Tour, where he crashed

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Here are Valverde's stats for Fleche Wallone. (This does include his 2010 results that were stripped for his ban, however included here to show how good he's been over his career).

Valverde's stats at Fleche Wallone:
12 races. 3 finishes outside the top 10. 6 podiums. 5 wins (including 4 in row). He's been on the podium in half of his Fleche Wallone starts and won 41.6% of his starts. Those are some impressive stats for any one race.
2005 - 39th
2006 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2008 - 21st
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2012 - 46th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st
2015 - 1st
2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st

Yeah, this is Bala's Playground.

So... what happened in 2012?

Valverde didn't hit real good form in 2012 until the Tour, where he crashed

This. Remember this was the year he was coming back from a year and a half away from racing. Although he did have a few wins early (stage of TDU), he didn't really get good form until the Tour, then had a crash. It wasn't one of his better seasons. He had 7 wins for that season, but didn't have his usual spring form.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

It's tough for Dan Martin to use different strategy. If he initiates attack earlier, he risks his whole race. If he escapes alone, or in a weak group it's suicide. The best scenario for him is to wait for some strong rider to attack (Wellens, Kwiat, Gilbert...), and then to leach on that move. But that would hardly pass without Valverde's presence in that same group. It's just so hard for quality break to escape in this race. Maybe this year will be different with the addition of Redoute and Vecquee. Teams who want to attack earlier should really have to up the pace on that climbs, and already start to attack on the first passage of the Mur. I'm talking about Lotto, Sky, Astana, UAE, Quick Step here... Teams have a choice here. They could ride a controlled race here and have a nice view of another Valverde win, or they could try to create chaos, and then only God knows who will win. I know what will I choose.

However, remember those two climbs are before the first of 3 climbs up the Mur de Huy. It could lead to attacks, it could also lead to an even more conservative race.

 

[GuyIncognito]

And on top of that he had a lot of crashes that early season.

Crashed out of Catalunya, then crashed hard at Amstel and crashed again at Fleche....and then again at LBL, before remounting down the wrong road and being DQed.

More impressive IMO is the 2009 7th place, since that was the year Unzue had him barely train from December to April so he could be rested for the Tour for once. Then he wasn't allowed to start the Tour. Not by coincidence, that's the year he won the Vuelta.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The criticism of Martin for wanting a punch off with Valverde and Alaphilippe on the Mur is like criticising other sprinters for wanting to beat a peak Cavendish in a sprint on the Champs Elysee rather than trying to win Vino style. Flèche is about being the fastest up the Mur. The puncheurs place such value on it because it’s about being fastest up the Mur. Spectators may place less value on it for exactly the same reason, which is fair enough, but that’s what it’s about.

 

[Breh]

I agree it's somewhat about prestige. Same goes for Alaphilippe.

Speaking of which, Quick Step could try something different like they did with Jungels last year. They have a pretty strong team with Gilbert, Jungels, Alaphilippe, Serry, Mas and Schachmann. But don't really have to. Alaphilippe has a shot vs Valverde in my opinion.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I agree it's somewhat about prestige. Same goes for Alaphilippe.

Speaking of which, Quick Step could try something different like they did with Jungels last year. They have a pretty strong team with Gilbert, Jungels, Alaphilippe, Serry, Mas and Schachmann. But don't really have to. Alaphilippe has a shot vs Valverde in my opinion.

Plus Alaphilippe has said he wants a shot at Valverde. During the off season he was saying he wanted Valverde back and fully healthy because if he can win in the Ardennes he wants to beat Valverde. He said it won't mean nearly as much if he's not in the field and healthy.

 

[blaxland]

So with Valverde being the unbackable favourite,it seems movistar will be the only team chasing the breaks ,assuring a small group sprint finish for valverde...Lets hope we dont see other teams chasing(Team Sky)the breakaway all day just to finish with a podium place.i guess time will tell...

 

[Koronin]

Re:

So with Valverde being the unbackable favourite,it seems movistar will be the only team chasing the breaks ,assuring a small group sprint finish for valverde...Lets hope we dont see other teams chasing(Team Sky)the breakaway all day just to finish with a podium place.i guess time will tell...

But you know that will happen. They will miss the break and chase and take it off of Movistar or help Movistar. Plus if they miss the break they'd rather settle for that guaranteed top 10 and hopeful podium.

 

[blaxland]

Re: Re:

So with Valverde being the unbackable favourite,it seems movistar will be the only team chasing the breaks ,assuring a small group sprint finish for valverde...Lets hope we dont see other teams chasing(Team Sky)the breakaway all day just to finish with a podium place.i guess time will tell...

But you know that will happen. They will miss the break and chase and take it off of Movistar or help Movistar. Plus if they miss the break they'd rather settle for that guaranteed top 10 and hopeful podium.

Your right im kinda hoping something wild or unexpected happens.So i guess i just wait till the last 20kms for action then...

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

So with Valverde being the unbackable favourite,it seems movistar will be the only team chasing the breaks ,assuring a small group sprint finish for valverde...Lets hope we dont see other teams chasing(Team Sky)the breakaway all day just to finish with a podium place.i guess time will tell...

But you know that will happen. They will miss the break and chase and take it off of Movistar or help Movistar. Plus if they miss the break they'd rather settle for that guaranteed top 10 and hopeful podium.

Your right im kinda hoping something wild or unexpected happens.So i guess i just wait till the last 20kms for action then...

This is why I haven't decided if I should watch the end of the race on line before leaving to go to work or just go to work and follow it on Twitter. (I'm a vendor so as long as my work is done in specified time frames it doesn't matter when during the day or week I do the job). Also why I'm leaning towards going to work and watching a replay when I get home.

 

[Tonton]

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde doesn't win this, although he's my pick.

 

[jaylew]

If you want to win and you don't have Martin or Alaphilippe on your team you really need to try something, anything different than waiting til the last 2-300 meters. Not that it's news to anyone at this point, but Valverde is telling everyone what he's going to do:

“If I am there between 200 and 250 metres to go, it is very difficult to beat me. I try to make sure nobody attacks, I calculate my distance and then I accelerate. It’s a distance I control very well, and that’s my advantage.”

I figure the best shot for the guys mentioned above is the status quo as it's the best strategy for them as well and eventually Bala is going to have an off day or bad luck in this race but every other team needs to try anything to disrupt Movistar's tactics - I know that's easier said than done. I'll be cheering for Valverde but I'd like to see some guys really take it to him this year and make him really have to work hard for it.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

If you want to win and you don't have Martin or Alaphilippe on your team you really need to try something, anything different than waiting til the last 2-300 meters. Not that it's news to anyone at this point, but Valverde is telling everyone what he's going to do:

“If I am there between 200 and 250 metres to go, it is very difficult to beat me. I try to make sure nobody attacks, I calculate my distance and then I accelerate. It’s a distance I control very well, and that’s my advantage.”

I figure the best shot for the guys mentioned above is the status quo as it's the best strategy for them as well and eventually Bala is going to have an off day or bad luck in this race but every other team needs to try anything to disrupt Movistar's tactics - I know that's easier said than done. I'll be cheering for Valverde but I'd like to see some guys really take it to him this year and make him really have to work hard for it.

I'm thinking BMC and Teuns may be in this same category of the sprint finish is the best option.

Yeah, I don't think what he said is any sort of secret. I'm pretty sure the entire peloton already knows this.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

The criticism of Martin for wanting a punch off with Valverde and Alaphilippe on the Mur is like criticising other sprinters for wanting to beat a peak Cavendish in a sprint on the Champs Elysee rather than trying to win Vino style. Flèche is about being the fastest up the Mur. The puncheurs place such value on it because it’s about being fastest up the Mur. Spectators may place less value on it for exactly the same reason, which is fair enough, but that’s what it’s about.

Says who? It didn't used to be that way and there's surely more than one way to win on such a route.

Also uphill sprints are quite different to regular sprints. Lady luck plays a much larger role in the latter as the speed is much higher (and positioning becomes much more important). A mistake can be deadly in a regular sprint, but in an uphill sprint you have more time to correct that mistake.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

If you want to win and you don't have Martin or Alaphilippe on your team you really need to try something, anything different than waiting til the last 2-300 meters. Not that it's news to anyone at this point, but Valverde is telling everyone what he's going to do:

“If I am there between 200 and 250 metres to go, it is very difficult to beat me. I try to make sure nobody attacks, I calculate my distance and then I accelerate. It’s a distance I control very well, and that’s my advantage.”

I figure the best shot for the guys mentioned above is the status quo as it's the best strategy for them as well and eventually Bala is going to have an off day or bad luck in this race but every other team needs to try anything to disrupt Movistar's tactics - I know that's easier said than done. I'll be cheering for Valverde but I'd like to see some guys really take it to him this year and make him really have to work hard for it.

I'm thinking BMC and Teuns may be in this same category of the sprint finish is the best option.

Yeah, I don't think what he said is any sort of secret. I'm pretty sure the entire peloton already knows this.

Yeah, probably right. I almost mentioned him as well.

 

[glassmoon]

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde doesn't win this, although he's my pick.

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde wins this. Even if solely... just for the pure LOLs

 

[armchairclimber]

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde doesn't win this, although he's my pick.

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde wins this. Even if solely... just for the pure LOLs

Well, I agree ... but also for cycling's sake it's good that we have a few of these races each year that demand a specific skill set. I have come to appreciate Valverde rather late (having previously taken an El Pisti type view). Whether he wins or not today, I always enjoy watching the way he tackles the Mur. The combination of stealth, skill and power is, for me, something to behold. It's a very specific skillset that few riders have. If I was stood at the side of the road on the Mur today, Valverde doing his thing against some really good young guns would be the reason to be there. I'd like him to get his fifth win on the bounce .... then for Alaphilippe or Gaudu to nick it next year. Then, when Valverde has retired (in 20 years time or so) ... the Mur will be a monunment to him, so to speak. His performances will be what we measure future generations against.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

The criticism of Martin for wanting a punch off with Valverde and Alaphilippe on the Mur is like criticising other sprinters for wanting to beat a peak Cavendish in a sprint on the Champs Elysee rather than trying to win Vino style. Flèche is about being the fastest up the Mur. The puncheurs place such value on it because it’s about being fastest up the Mur. Spectators may place less value on it for exactly the same reason, which is fair enough, but that’s what it’s about.

That's a pretty terrible mindset for a rider though. They should try to win first and foremost, especially someone with the palmares and skillset of Martin. It's not even being the fastest up the Mur anyway, it's the best 250m flattish sprinter.

 

[Red Rick]

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde doesn't win this, although he's my pick.

If it ends in an uphill sprint, then Valverde is the only one who deserves to win.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

***** : Valverde
*** : Martin, Vuillermoz, Alaphilippe, Vanendert, Barguil, Wellens, Teuns, Albasini, Majka, Nibali, Herrada, Henao in random order.
½* Breakaway rider.

 

[loge1884]

For cycling's sake, I hope that Valverde doesn't win this, although he's my pick.

For cycling's sake I would believe the best should win (whether it is Valverde or someone else on that day) ... being french I would believe you would replace "best" with "the one with the most panache" - and I would not argue with you ....

 

[Valanga]

Just read an interview with Mario Aerts, DS of Lotto-Soudal, and he believes Tim Wellens can outsprint Valverde on the Mur, and he should wait for the final climb. He should believe in it and not attack...

Rik Verbrugghe, DS of Bahrain-Merida, doesn't believe in a long range attack either. He sees 2 challengers for Valverde: Julian Alaphilippe and Dylan Teuns.

So yeah, borefest ftw! Until the final 4 minutes.

 

[hrotha]

I hope Wellens is smarter than Aerts. Jesus Christ. You know when some forumers deride people who complain about conservative racing by saying stuff like "they know what they're doing, they do what maximizes their chances of winning, do you think they're stupid?"? Well...

edit: Some year Valverde won't be as good or he'll be unlucky or whatever and they'll beat him (might even be today, who knows), and the worst part is they will think that vindicates them, without a second thought for all the races they've already lost to him.