2022 Tour of Norway, 2.Pro - 24th to 29th May

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So tomorrow will be Johannessen vs Plapp? Remco still seems to be in his spring shape, so the extra weight could hurt him on a steep, longer climb.

He was already 2.5kg lighter in Liège than he was in Valencia. You think he climbed that badly in Itzulia, that he would be without a chance against this opposition in Norway? The past month he supposedly started working on longer efforts. If he isn't in the mix tomorrow, the team should really start looking for competent and proven GC trainers.

 

[AlfaLum]

Evenepoel will win this tomorrow. Curious about Tao, who was sick again recently, but seems in Okish shape for now.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

He was already 2.5kg lighter in Liège than he was in Valencia. You think he climbed that badly in Itzulia, that he would be without a chance against this opposition in Norway? The past month he supposedly started working on longer efforts. If he isn't in the mix tomorrow, the team should really start looking for competent and proven GC trainers.

Evenepoel will actually need to drop THJ though, either tomorrow or with a big solo later this week, because if this race comes down to bonus seconds there's only one outcome. Given the field, him not finishing higher than at the Valencia MTF would be a shocker, but he needs the kind of climbing performance he's done once in his life (on Picon Blanco two years ago) to drop both THJ and Plapp so being in the mix but not winning is probably as good as it will get for him tomorrow. It seems more likely that he loses at least half a minute than that he outright wins to me, tbh, it's a proper climb and he's up against some of the finest climbing talent of his generation.

 

[Netserk]

Does Norwegian sound as drunk to the Danish as it sounds to me?

More like happy children.

 

[Red Rick]

Should be Evenepoel vs Plapp tomorrow

 

[Samamba]

Anyone a short summary of what happened? Echelons? Who are the main guys that survived? Im on vacation.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel will actually need to drop THJ though, either tomorrow or with a big solo later this week, because if this race comes down to bonus seconds there's only one outcome. Given the field, him not finishing higher than at the Valencia MTF would be a shocker, but he needs the kind of climbing performance he's done once in his life (on Picon Blanco two years ago) to drop both THJ and Plapp so being in the mix but not winning is probably as good as it will get for him tomorrow. It seems more likely that he loses at least half a minute than that he outright wins to me, tbh, it's a proper climb and he's up against some of the finest climbing talent of his generation.

Mkay. We're talking about the same rider who won Avenir with the tiniest of margins, in his final U23 year? Who got distanced nearly 3 minutes in the baby Giro by Ayuso and finished only some 50s ahead of the mighty superclimber that is Vandenabeele? Exactly which are these earthshattering climbing perfs that Johannessen has shown that should shake Evenepoel to his core? To that extend that it is more likely that he gets dropped by Johannessen 30s than win. Now even a performance like on Picon Blanco, where he beat basically every climber other than the Slovenians and Bernal, is the bare minimum for him to be beat the opposition in the Tour of Norway.

The most impressive performance of Johannessen seems to be his stage win in Avenir on Grand Colombier, where he won with 1m ahead of Zana. Another superclimber i'm sure. One could say that Johannessen might have to repeat the kind of climbing performance he's ever done once in his life, in order to keep a guy like Uijtdebroeks behind him? I think that's about as realistic as your statement.

Not saying Evenepoel has this in the bag, but if he now has to do his best ever performance to maaaybe be able to beat Johannessen, then Evenepoel should definitely change teams.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Anyone a short summary of what happened? Echelons? Who are the main guys that survived? Im on vacation.

Ineos set the pace on the plateau after the climb. Peloton split into echelons, the first two groups merged into one larger group (25 guys?) with another group chasing not far behind. In that chasing group, which was rather small, were Pedersen, Chaves and Uijtdebroeks along with maybe 5 other guys. In the front peloton the guys of Ineos together with some TJV guys kept setting the pace. The chasing group was too small to have a chance to come back, they finished 1 minute after the first group.
1k from the finish Cavagna was pulling ahead of Evenepoel, who were (i think) leading Asgreen out. At one point Cavagna had a gap of 5 meters on Evenepoel. Big mistake by Remco to close that gap. He should have let Cavagna go. I think Remy could have taken the win, and boniseconds from Evenepoel's rivals. He would still have been in the lead.

Results on PCS still not up hours after the race finished, so you should look at FC to see who finished where:

https://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=71&y=2022&e=02

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

1k from the finish Cavagna was pulling ahead of Evenepoel, who were (i think) leading Asgreen out. At one point Cavagna had a gap of 5 meters on Evenepoel. Big mistake by Remco to close that gap. He should have let Cavagna go. I think Remy could have taken the win, and boniseconds from Evenepoel's rivals. He would still have been in the lead.

it was just after 1.5k when Cavagna made that gap and then he looked behind to check where Remco was, so it looks like a flier was not in the team's plans. It was way too early and Jumbo were too strong and indeed they flew past remco soon enough with Asgreen having to try to get in their mini-train.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Mkay. We're talking about the same rider who won Avenir with the tiniest of margins, in his final U23 year? Who got distanced nearly 3 minutes in the baby Giro by Ayuso and finished only some 50s ahead of the mighty superclimber that is Vandenabeele? Exactly which are these earthshattering climbing perfs that Johannessen has shown that should shake Evenepoel to his core? To that extend that it is more likely that he gets dropped by Johannessen 30s than win. Now even a performance like on Picon Blanco, where he beat basically every climber other than the Slovenians and Bernal, is the bare minimum for him to be beat the opposition in the Tour of Norway.

The most impressive performance of Johannessen seems to be his stage win in Avenir on Grand Colombier, where he won with 1m ahead of Zana. Another superclimber i'm sure. One could say that Johannessen might have to repeat the kind of climbing performance he's ever done once in his life, in order to keep a guy like Uijtdebroeks behind him? I think that's about as realistic as your statement.

Not saying Evenepoel has this in the bag, but if he now has to do his best ever performance to maaaybe be able to beat Johannessen, then Evenepoel should definitely change teams.

You're selling him a bit short, Johannessen did finish 7th on thhe gc in Catalunya and until now Remco hasn't exactly been a world beater on longer climbs (at least this season), so thinking that it could be competitive isn't that weird.

 

[Netserk]

Mkay. We're talking about the same rider who won Avenir with the tiniest of margins, in his final U23 year? Who got distanced nearly 3 minutes in the baby Giro by Ayuso and finished only some 50s ahead of the mighty superclimber that is Vandenabeele? Exactly which are these earthshattering climbing perfs that Johannessen has shown that should shake Evenepoel to his core? To that extend that it is more likely that he gets dropped by Johannessen 30s than win. Now even a performance like on Picon Blanco, where he beat basically every climber other than the Slovenians and Bernal, is the bare minimum for him to be beat the opposition in the Tour of Norway.

The most impressive performance of Johannessen seems to be his stage win in Avenir on Grand Colombier, where he won with 1m ahead of Zana. Another superclimber i'm sure. One could say that Johannessen might have to repeat the kind of climbing performance he's ever done once in his life, in order to keep a guy like Uijtdebroeks behind him? I think that's about as realistic as your statement.

Not saying Evenepoel has this in the bag, but if he now has to do his best ever performance to maaaybe be able to beat Johannessen, then Evenepoel should definitely change teams.

Nice spin. Why don't you do the same when assessing the performances of Evenepoel? Pointing out how he couldn't distance Schultz on Zoncolan?

 

[Norbea]

Anyone a short summary of what happened? Echelons? Who are the main guys that survived? Im on vacation.

Shifting wind from different directions. I am sure Ineos and Gabriel Rasch knew this and they set up high speed in strategic places. Most of the sprinters were dropped either in echelons or in the main climb. So a group of 30+ riders looked to be in the final. Mads Pedersen probably the best finisher still remaining with the survivors. Then Ineos made use of another echelon in a downhill section to create a split. Mads Pedersen was dropped. About 20 riders left in the final. Israel (impey and Wurts Smidt working for Bevin) and Ineos pretty intact worked to keep the gap. Remco was there with Asgren and Uno-X had 3, including the twins, Jumbo with Teunissen and Rosen. Bora with Haller.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Mkay. We're talking about the same rider who won Avenir with the tiniest of margins, in his final U23 year? Who got distanced nearly 3 minutes in the baby Giro by Ayuso and finished only some 50s ahead of the mighty superclimber that is Vandenabeele? Exactly which are these earthshattering climbing perfs that Johannessen has shown that should shake Evenepoel to his core? To that extend that it is more likely that he gets dropped by Johannessen 30s than win. Now even a performance like on Picon Blanco, where he beat basically every climber other than the Slovenians and Bernal, is the bare minimum for him to be beat the opposition in the Tour of Norway.

The most impressive performance of Johannessen seems to be his stage win in Avenir on Grand Colombier, where he won with 1m ahead of Zana. Another superclimber i'm sure. One could say that Johannessen might have to repeat the kind of climbing performance he's ever done once in his life, in order to keep a guy like Uijtdebroeks behind him? I think that's about as realistic as your statement.

Not saying Evenepoel has this in the bag, but if he now has to do his best ever performance to maaaybe be able to beat Johannessen, then Evenepoel should definitely change teams.

Evenepoel's performances post-injury on climbs of similar difficulty (discounting the 2021 Giro as he clearly wasn't properly prepared for it):
Olympics 2021 - dropped like a stone
Lombardia 2021 - dropped like a stone
Valencia 2022 - in the top-10 but still definitely off the pace
Tirreno 2022 - dropped like a stone

THJ has only done one climb of that difficulty against a proper field in the same timeframe, but his ride on the Catalunya queen stage was a level above Evenepoel's at Valencia, let alone the other three. No, Evenepoel's Picon Blanco ride is not the bare minimum to beat that kind of climbing performance (or Plapp's Jebel Hafeet level, for that matter) and I never said it was, but it's such a big outlier in his career so far that it's the only ride on this kind of terrain he's ever done that would be enough to do so.

Now, do I expect Evenepoel to lose 30+ seconds tomorrow? Not really, but I think it's less likely for him to ride everyone off his wheel, which (like I said) is almost certainly the only way he wins the stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

it was just after 1.5k when Cavagna made that gap and then he looked behind to check where Remco was, so it looks like a flier was not in the team's plans. It was way too early and Jumbo were too strong and indeed they flew past remco soon enough with Asgreen having to try to get in their mini-train.

I'm sure it wasn't planned, but he could just let TJV or Ineos do the work and burn the guys in order to get Cavagna back with Asgreen in their wheels. I'm also not so sure TJV would have caught Remy. They would have needed to overtake both Asgreen and Evenepoel first and by the time they realised what happened, the gap could have been 20 meters easily. Cavagna is quite capable of riding 1km balls out and none of the TJV guys (in the first group) are better at these efforts than Cavagna.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel's performances post-injury on climbs of similar difficulty (discounting the 2021 Giro as he clearly wasn't properly prepared for it):
Olympics 2021 - dropped like a stone
Lombardia 2021 - dropped like a stone
Valencia 2022 - in the top-10 but still definitely off the pace
Tirreno 2022 - dropped like a stone

THJ has only done one climb of that difficulty against a proper field in the same timeframe, but his ride on the Catalunya queen stage was a level above Evenepoel's at Valencia, let alone the other three. No, Evenepoel's Picon Blanco ride is not the bare minimum to beat that kind of climbing performance (or Plapp's Jebel Hafeet level, for that matter) and I never said it was, but it's such a big outlier in his career so far that it's the only ride on this kind of terrain he's ever done that would be enough to do so.

Now, do I expect Evenepoel to lose 30+ seconds tomorrow? Not really, but I think it's less likely for him to ride everyone off his wheel, which (like I said) is almost certainly the only way he wins the stage.

So. You are comparing the climbs in a 1day WT monument of 240km and a 230km olympic event against worldclass opposition, to stage 3 of the Tour of Norway against... Johannessen and Plapp. Ok.
You handily leave out the Giro. Any thoughts about his Zoncolan climb? As you said he wasn't really prepared, and yet, less than half a minute slower than Bardet, Vlasov and Carthy? You also left out Itzulia, his last stagerace this year, hence perhaps the best indicator of his current level. I think this was much more relevant than his efforts in Lombardia or Olympics, wouldn't you agree?

 

[Flurk1982]

Nice spin. Why don't you do the same when assessing the performances of Evenepoel? Pointing out how he couldn't distance Schultz on Zoncolan?

Zoncolan in Giro last year was Evenepoel first race after injury. Not really a reference.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

So. You are comparing the climbs in a 1day WT monument of 240km and a 230km olympic event against worldclass opposition, to stage 3 of the Tour of Norway against... Johannessen and Plapp. Ok.
You handily leave out the Giro. Any thoughts about his Zoncolan climb? As you said he wasn't really prepared, and yet, less than half a minute slower than Bardet, Vlasov and Carthy? You also left out Itzulia, his last stagerace this year, hence perhaps the best indicator of his current level. I think this was much more relevant than his efforts in Lombardia or Olympics, wouldn't you agree?

He didn’t exactly finish with world-class opposition in either the Olympics or Lombardia. Not sure why you’re pointing out the distance as it clearly isn’t a problem for a Liège and San Sebastian winner like him.

I left out the Giro because it would have made things look unfairly worse for him. Had I included his ride on the Cortina stage (his worst on longer climbs), you would probably be criticising me for unfairly including a race he wasn’t prepared for. Also, pointing out him finishing close-ish to Bardet, Vlasov and Carthy on Zoncolan is some Pisti-esque cherrypicking to make his performance seem better. He lost 1.5 minutes to Bernal and Yates and finished in between Pedrero and Schultz - I can cherrypick too.

Finally, strong performances on Itzulia-length climbs doesn’t always translate to strong performances on longer climbs, just ask Ion Izagirre. As it is, Evenepoel’s track record on longer climbs is clearly worse than on mid-length climbs - Tirreno was an excellent example of this. In addition, Evenepoel was roughly the seventh-best climber in that race (that was his position on the queen stage, which would have been eighth at best without Mas crashing), when THJ was roughly the seventh-best climber in Catalunya (his GC position there). So even if you think that Itzulia is the best indicator for Evenepoel’s current climbing level, it still doesn’t show that Evenepoel is about to drop THJ tomorrow, which once again is a prerequisite for him winning the stage.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Should be Evenepoel vs no one tomorrow.

 

[Netserk]

Zoncolan in Giro last year was Evenepoel first race after injury. Not really a reference.

Yet a reference that was used by @Logic-is-your-friend earlier in this thread. Can't have it both ways, I'm afraid.

You think there are many riders present in Norway who would finish closer than 90 seconds to Bernal on Zoncolan?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He didn’t exactly finish with world-class opposition in either the Olympics or Lombardia. Not sure why you’re pointing out the distance as it clearly isn’t a problem for a Liège and San Sebastian winner like him.

I left out the Giro because it would have made things look unfairly worse for him. Had I included his ride on the Cortina stage (his worst on longer climbs), you would probably be criticising me for unfairly including a race he wasn’t prepared for. Also, pointing out him finishing close-ish to Bardet, Vlasov and Carthy on Zoncolan is some Pisti-esque cherrypicking to make his performance seem better. He lost 1.5 minutes to Bernal and Yates and finished in between Pedrero and Schultz - I can cherrypick too.

Finally, strong performances on Itzulia-length climbs doesn’t always translate to strong performances on longer climbs, just ask Ion Izagirre. As it is, Evenepoel’s track record on longer climbs is clearly worse than on mid-length climbs - Tirreno was an excellent example of this. In addition, Evenepoel was roughly the seventh-best climber in that race (that was his position on the queen stage, which would have been eighth at best without Mas crashing), when THJ was roughly the seventh-best climber in Catalunya (his GC position there). So even if you think that Itzulia is the best indicator for Evenepoel’s current climbing level, it still doesn’t show that Evenepoel is about to drop THJ tomorrow, which once again is a prerequisite for him winning the stage.

You're ignoring the context. If you want to point out Schultz and Pedrero that's fine. If you think that undermines my argument, that's fine too. But it doesn't. Because he could not have been close to a 100%, which you acknowledged. So there is no shame in not finishing ahead of those guys who had not burned the same energy in the GC race. Maybe those guys just had a good day, which shows when comparing them to the other podium contenders. Yet at the same time after two weeks he did not lose a lot of time to some elite climbers on one of the hardest GT climbs. You want to call that cherry picking, but the same Giro he also finished along other favorites in stage 4 and was among the best climbers in stages 6 and 9. So in spite of the circumstances that weren't in his favor, there were still 4 stages in the 2021 Giro where his climbing performances were ranging from great to very decent. You can hardly call that cherrypicking. It is no more cherrypicking than you pointing out ''getting dropped like a brick'' in Lombardia, Tirreno and OS. Especially since up til that point, there had not been one mountain stage where he performed badly. For reference, on those other mountain stages in the first two weeks in the Giro, he always finished ahead of Schultz. Even after the Zoncolan he was still in the top 10 in GC, over 6 minutes ahead of Schultz and half an hour ahead of Pedrero. So comparing him to Bardet and others who also went for GC, is a hell of a lot less disingenuous than comparing him to Schultz and Pedrero. So no spin needed on my part. He also finished minutes ahead of Foss, Nibali, Valter, Grosschartner... You could say he ''dropped them like a brick'' in relative terms.

So you acknowledge he was disadvantaged during the Giro, but pointing out him finishing close to GC rivals on the hardest climb in the first two weeks is cherrypicking? In the 4 mountain stages in the first two weeks, he only lost 36 seconds in total to the guy who claimed the 3rd podium spot. But i'm cherrypicking, i'm sure. Two weeks of cherrypicking. Also interesting to hear (i'm quite sure it's the first time i've heard that argument) that he would be better on shorter steeper climbs, as opposed to longer steady climbs. The past year i've been hearing all about how steep climbs don't suit him, and now it seems the climbs in Itzulia all of a sudden should favor him as opposed to the 12k 8% climb in Norway. Especially since the Mikuni which you used as an example, resembles the climbs in Itzulia a lot more than the climb in Norway. Same goes for the climbs in Lombardia come to think of it.

Agreed that he likely won't outsprint Johannessen, so if he wants to win, he has to either drop him or choke him. That's not a point of debate here.

 

[Big Doopie]

I believe he would like to make a statement tomorrow.

whether he will be able to remains to be seen.

i guess I will be tuning in to find out.

I do sense that he looks remarkably easy and extremely confident. And the short interview posted above here seemed to indicate that he was particularly looking forward to this mountain test.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

You're ignoring the context. If you want to point out Schultz and Pedrero that's fine. If you think that undermines my argument, that's fine too. But it doesn't. Because he could not have been close to a 100%, which you acknowledged. So there is no shame in not finishing ahead of those guys who had not burned the same energy in the GC race. Maybe those guys just had a good day, which shows when comparing them to the other podium contenders. Yet at the same time after two weeks he did not lose a lot of time to some elite climbers on one of the hardest GT climbs. You want to call that cherry picking, but the same Giro he also finished along other favorites in stage 4 and was among the best climbers in stages 6 and 9. So in spite of the circumstances that weren't in his favor, there were still 4 stages in the 2021 Giro where his climbing performances were ranging from great to very decent. You can hardly call that cherrypicking. It is no more cherrypicking than you pointing out ''getting dropped like a brick'' in Lombardia, Tirreno and OS. Especially since up til that point, there had not been one mountain stage where he performed badly. For reference, on those other mountain stages in the first two weeks in the Giro, he always finished ahead of Schultz. Even after the Zoncolan he was still in the top 10 in GC, over 6 minutes ahead of Schultz and half an hour ahead of Pedrero. So comparing him to Bardet and others who also went for GC, is a hell of a lot less disingenuous than comparing him to Schultz and Pedrero. So no spin needed on my part. He also finished minutes ahead of Foss, Nibali, Valter, Grosschartner... You could say he ''dropped them like a brick'' in relative terms.

So you acknowledge he was disadvantaged during the Giro, but pointing out him finishing close to GC rivals on the hardest climb in the first two weeks is cherrypicking? In the 4 mountain stages in the first two weeks, he only lost 36 seconds in total to the guy who claimed the 3rd podium spot. But i'm cherrypicking, i'm sure. Two weeks of cherrypicking. Also interesting to hear (i'm quite sure it's the first time i've heard that argument) that he would be better on shorter steeper climbs, as opposed to longer steady climbs. The past year i've been hearing all about how steep climbs don't suit him, and now it seems the climbs in Itzulia all of a sudden should favor him as opposed to the 12k 8% climb in Norway. Especially since the Mikuni which you used as an example, resembles the climbs in Itzulia a lot more than the climb in Norway. Same goes for the climbs in Lombardia come to think of it.

Agreed that he likely won't outsprint Johannessen, so if he wants to win, he has to either drop him or choke him. That's not a point of debate here.

Even if I had included the Giro, I would have disregarded every stage prior to Zoncolan on account of the climbs being far easier than tomorrow's. It really isn't very relevant, you're harping on about what happened a year ago a lot for someone who posted this:

You also left out Itzulia, his last stagerace this year, hence perhaps the best indicator of his current level. I think this was much more relevant than his efforts in Lombardia or Olympics, wouldn't you agree?

 

[hayneplane]

I expect Remco to win tomorrow unless TGH decides it’s time to party like it’s Autumn 2020 all over again.

 

[red_flanders]

I'm sure tomorrow's race will settle the pissing contest for once and for all. If he wins, we'll know he's a climber. If not, we'll know he's an overhyped turd.

Personally I'm just going to enjoy the racing.

 

[Big Doopie]

Hoping Cian Uijtdebroeks can show some of his climbing chops as well.