Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 9: Savignano sul Rubicone – Cesena 35 km ITT (Sunday, May 14th)

[Skalman]

I was pointing out your logical fallacy of taking as a given that Remco will win if in form and therefore if he doesn’t win, by definition your argument goes, he is not in form. I agree that true crash is likely impacting him, but “if Remco had been in form this race would have been over today” is too much.

But barring any injuries and what we knew after stage 1 nothing else would have been expected. he would have been sitting on a margin of around 2 minutes after this TT to his closest competitors, good luck trying to take that back on a Remco in form with the stages that are left. now it is however a completely different matter

 

[YavorD]

After PdBF, I think Roglic will want a bit of a buffer ahead of the MTT if possible though. You don't get that by playing the waiting game forever. And Ineos won't get anything out of having two horses in this race that way either. While today isn't ideal at first glance, it could still work out provided neither Thomas nor TGH is the strongest climber in the Alps.

Given the outcome today and yesterday can we actually bet that Tao and G won't be the strongest in the Alps? I do agree with your point about Roglic though, however, Monte Lussari is much more of a climbing TT than PdBF was and likely the strongest on Tre Cime will be the strongest there. So if Roglic has worked on climbing I don't think he has the incentive to do something more than a 2 km stomp

 

[Filippo_3467]

How so? TT was ideal for him, both in length as with wind conditions and should have taken at least an extra minute. He started the Giro 2kg heavier than the Vuelta in order to perform better in TT's and "be healthier". Usually you don't climb better the heavier you get. So instead of defending a comfortable lead, he now has to defend a narrow lead, while he is clearly suffering and even if he would magically recover, with his current weight it is highly unlikely he is going to climb with the best. The idea was to improve w/kg (lol) in the mountains, but as we can already see, he can't even keep up on shorter climbs. Maybe their plan could have worked in case everything went smoothly, but as soon as you get a few setbacks (could just as well have been a flat tire or caught out in echelons) such a plan seems quite naïve.

There are three possible factors why Remco isn't leading the Giro with a big margin that maybe you expected.

1.) wrong approach to the Giro/ form
2.) hurting from crashes
3.) sickness

We don't know which factor is the reason or if 2 or even all 3 come together at the moment. So in my eyes it's completely immature to speculate based on hunches and the current form. Also - he wasn't far away from the best yesterday and won today.

Sometimes Remco fans are there own worst trolls. You are so primed on Remco destroying the field as he does on 10 to 15 race days a year and then when he for once didn't dominate it's absolutely the worst and catastrophic. I know no bike rider whos fans are overreacting like that. After TdS it was absolutely clear that he could never win a GT and so on and so on...

The Giro is long and he leads by a solid margin of 45 seconds. I also would have guessed that it is closer to 2 Minutes but it's still a solid lead. It's small enough to loose in one bad stage, but if the reason for the last days were 2. and 3. it could look very different in a week. Hart and Thomas weren't near the peak level that Remco showed in the last 1,5 years and to Roglic - something always happens to him. In peak condition Remco is unbeatable except Roglic is near his all time greatest form. If the next friday will be raced proper we know more up until then everything is just overreaction. Next friday the cards will be on the table and losses could be well into the minutes - then I think it is time to panic if your favourite riders is dropped early.

 

[HelloDolly]

Tao looking and sounding like a large Irish leprechaun here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657775876740640768

View: https://twitter.com/TeamDSM/status/1657775876740640768?s=20

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

"They will have plans to attack me... but we have a strong team"

It was a coded message to Hirt, Cattaneo and Van Wilder: Help!

 

[Sciatic]

Given only 1 second, would have loved to see old Man G take the win here. He seems to be getting better as the giro goes on. Fascinating.

Not sure about that—he was barely hanging on as Tao led the three across the line yesterday. Seems like like it will now be about who is strongest in week three.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Tao looking and sounding like a large Irish leprechaun here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657775876740640768

View: https://twitter.com/TeamDSM/status/1657775876740640768?s=20

That's a very London accent; I bet he uses roadman terms.

 

[Filippo_3467]

I would not remotely put Remco on a list of best climbers in the world with Pog and Ving, and not even Roglic, when it comes down to a big block of mountain stages such as we are going to see in the last week of this race. I would love to be proven wrong and have him show he belongs there, but as it stands now I believe if he goes into the last week with under a minute GC lead he is not going to end up in pink.

Sorry that's completely BS. You have to be completely asleep in the last 2 years to not see Remco on this level. He completely destroyed the field in multiple hard one days races & won a GT beating Roglic and peak form Mas on multiple hard stages without having a completely shitty day. He had some of the objectively best climbing performances that were ever measured. Maybe you can make up a multi-tier s-tier of climbers based on some characteristics (Pogacar likes cold & rainy, Vingegaard the heat, Remco worse on bad/gravely roads...) but in the end those 4 all have their claim to be there at the top and they are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. I don't know who should have even a remote claim of coming close. Maybe Vine and Ayuso one day but objectively they aren't there yet.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There are three possible factors why Remco isn't leading the Giro with a big margin that maybe you expected.

1.) wrong approach to the Giro/ form
2.) hurting from crashes
3.) sickness

We don't know which factor is the reason or if 2 or even all 3 come together at the moment. So in my eyes it's completely immature to speculate based on hunches and the current form. Also - he wasn't far away from the best yesterday and won today.

Sometimes Remco fans are there own worst trolls. You are so primed on Remco destroying the field as he does on 10 to 15 race days a year and then when he for once didn't dominate it's absolutely the worst and catastrophic. I know no bike rider whos fans are overreacting like that. After TdS it was absolutely clear that he could never win a GT and so on and so on...

The Giro is long and he leads by a solid margin of 45 seconds. I also would have guessed that it is closer to 2 Minutes but it's still a solid lead. It's small enough to loose in one bad stage, but if the reason for the last days were 2. and 3. it could look very different in a week. Hart and Thomas weren't near the peak level that Remco showed in the last 1,5 years and to Roglic - something always happens to him. In peak condition Remco is unbeatable except Roglic is near his all time greatest form. If the next friday will be raced proper we know more up until then everything is just overreaction. Next friday the cards will be on the table and losses could be well into the minutes - then I think it is time to panic if your favourite riders is dropped early.

I have been convinced since 2018 that he could win a GT. I am still convinced of his potential both as a TT'er, GT rider and classics rider. But I am highly sceptical of the staff at SQS.
I also think the big issue is #2 (injuries), but that #1 (approach) will be working against him because of it. That it could have worked had everything gone smoothly, but as soon as he is backed into a corner in week 3, that it will simply not be enough.

 

[MrTea1976]

Bernie Eisel explicitly mentioned how Tao is one of the most likable pals in the peloton, but appears a bit unsympathetic in interviews!

Much like Andy Murray.

 

[houtdffan]

Wow, he looks really bad. Maybe he is ill? (viral infection or one associated with his wound).

The thing that stood out to me was his riding with the jersey open on Friday. Was thinking maybe he has a fever due to a crash infection. Black puss coming from the wound only gives more credence to the idea that he is suffering from a post crash infection

 

[HelloDolly]

That's a very London accent; I bet he uses roadman terms.

Sure I know Tao is from east London but his ancestory and names ( Tao and Geoghegan ) are Irish

 

[movingtarget]

Sorry that's completely BS. You have to be completely asleep in the last 2 years to not see Remco on this level. He completely destroyed the field in multiple hard one days races & won a GT beating Roglic and peak form Mas on multiple hard stages without having a completely shitty day. He had some of the objectively best climbing performances that were ever measured. Maybe you can make up a multi-tier s-tier of climbers based on some characteristics (Pogacar likes cold & rainy, Vingegaard the heat, Remco worse on bad/gravely roads...) but in the end those 4 all have their claim to be there at the top and they are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. I don't know who should have even a remote claim of coming close. Maybe Vine and Ayuso one day but objectively they aren't there yet.

More about the difference in styles but no doubt Remco's climbing is much better the past few years and he's learned to ride grand tours already winning one.

 

[rokovski]

Remco puts a dagger into Ineos heart

Ineos will cut Remco into pieces.

 

[Rackham]

Sorry that's completely BS. You have to be completely asleep in the last 2 years to not see Remco on this level. He completely destroyed the field in multiple hard one days races & won a GT beating Roglic and peak form Mas on multiple hard stages without having a completely shitty day. He had some of the objectively best climbing performances that were ever measured. Maybe you can make up a multi-tier s-tier of climbers based on some characteristics (Pogacar likes cold & rainy, Vingegaard the heat, Remco worse on bad/gravely roads...) but in the end those 4 all have their claim to be there at the top and they are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. I don't know who should have even a remote claim of coming close. Maybe Vine and Ayuso one day but objectively they aren't there yet.

If some fans use Evenepoel's recent crashes as an "explanation" (I'll call it that so not to upset anyone here), then the record needs to be set straight regarding Roglič as well: he crashed out of the TdF 2022 with a fractured vertebrae & an ongoing shoulder annoyance which required an operation after the season was over. He raced the Vuelta 2022 with very little prep as well.

So fair play to Evenepoel for winning the Vuelta last year, he earned it & deserved it. But that was not peak Roglič. This one though in the Giro is IMO pretty much where I'd expect him to be based on his normal 'non injury' level. And when the high mountains come, I expect Rog will have his usual Col de la Loze/Covadonga style legs.

That makes the coming two weeks in this Giro a completely different race compared to last year's Vuelta.

 

[Lequack]

Tao and Thomas will do what Rogla and Vingegaard did in the Tour and play the 1-2 with Remco and Roglic.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Tao and Thomas will do what Rogla and Vingegaard did in the Tour and play the 1-2 with Remco and Roglic.

They have 5 guys and the worst guy is 2m30s behind Roglic. If they keep calm until the group of favourites has been reduced to 15 guys, Ineos can launch 3 attacks before Thomas and Hart even have to put their newspaper down.

 

[Riek s]

There are three possible factors why Remco isn't leading the Giro with a big margin that maybe you expected.

1.) wrong approach to the Giro/ form
2.) hurting from crashes
3.) sickness

We don't know which factor is the reason or if 2 or even all 3 come together at the moment. So in my eyes it's completely immature to speculate based on hunches and the current form. Also - he wasn't far away from the best yesterday and won today.

Sometimes Remco fans are there own worst trolls. You are so primed on Remco destroying the field as he does on 10 to 15 race days a year and then when he for once didn't dominate it's absolutely the worst and catastrophic. I know no bike rider whos fans are overreacting like that. After TdS it was absolutely clear that he could never win a GT and so on and so on...

The Giro is long and he leads by a solid margin of 45 seconds. I also would have guessed that it is closer to 2 Minutes but it's still a solid lead. It's small enough to loose in one bad stage, but if the reason for the last days were 2. and 3. it could look very different in a week. Hart and Thomas weren't near the peak level that Remco showed in the last 1,5 years and to Roglic - something always happens to him. In peak condition Remco is unbeatable except Roglic is near his all time greatest form. If the next friday will be raced proper we know more up until then everything is just overreaction. Next friday the cards will be on the table and losses could be well into the minutes - then I think it is time to panic if your favourite riders is dropped early.

I agree with you, you are completely right. Thank you!

Just don't like to see him looking like he hadn't had a sleep for 2 days straight. (the nervous statement might have been referring to him about how the crash would have affected him and the eagerness of the others to take advantage on that)



At least its good Hart/Thomas are one point so even if he fails, the Giro wont become a one man show.

 

[Carols]

I feel so bad for Remco now

Why???? He thinks his poop doesn't stink and he's the best. Well he was, by 1 second. He's wearing pink and since he's so good why feel sorry for him?

 

[Riek s]

If some fans use Evenepoel's recent crashes as an "explanation" (I'll call it that so not to upset anyone here), then the record needs to be set straight regarding Roglič as well: he crashed out of the TdF 2022 with a fractured vertebrae & an ongoing shoulder annoyance which required an operation after the season was over. He raced the Vuelta 2022 with very little prep as well.

So fair play to Evenepoel for winning the Vuelta last year, he earned it & deserved it. But that was not peak Roglič. This one though in the Giro is IMO pretty much where I'd expect him to be based on his normal 'non injury' level. And when the high mountains come, I expect Rog will have his usual Col de la Loze/Covadonga style legs.

That makes the coming two weeks in this Giro a completely different race compared to last year's Vuelta.

i'm sorry, You make it seem as if the Roglic fans weren't saying this the whole Vuelta? (and afterwards)

 

[Sciatic]

Strategically I don't think Ineos will let Roglic ride or vice versa. So that might be of help for Remco.... If he is still there..

There are some epic climbs coming up from Stage 13 on. I don’t believe a team can decide to “let someone go” or not. Perhaps Ineos will have that option if they decide that either G or Tao needs to follow Remco or Roglic I’d they launch. But that this race has already been hard on some days, it might be a more a matter of who can hang on and who can’t.

I think where team strategy comes in more is whether to make a mtn stage hard from the beginning, or whether to send several domestiques in early breaks to be there to help at the end of a stage.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't think I remember a GT stage winner (who's the race leader as well) whose race victory prospects were rated so lowly as Evenepoel's right now (excluding non-GC riders OFC). Unusual circumstances.

 

[Sciatic]

The outcome of the crossing of the Rubicon has brought to my mind another word from the wars of ancient Rome: this looks like a pyrrhic victory.

Well done!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Why???? He thinks his poop doesn't stink and he's the best. Well he was, by 1 second. He's wearing pink and since he's so good why feel sorry for him?

You seem to know him quite personally.

 

[Lequack]

I feel so bad for Remco now

I mean he won two stages and is almost 1 minute ahead of everyone. Everyone else would kill to be in his position right now.