After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[nvpacchi]

They are basically from the same region, although they are named differently. That is just a territorial/political minor issue. We Spaniards in general do not have a lot of territorial pride, although many citizens of some few particular territories do really show lots of pride, and birthplace is an issue there. That does not apply at all for the places of origin of these 2 cyclists (Madrid or Castilla y Leon for Sastre, Castilla La Mancha for Arroyo)

Thanks for this, out of curiosity what makes Castilla y Leon/Mancha different than other regions of Spain?

 

[Kazistuta]

I guess the former GC podium before this stage can't recover this huge time loss. Normally, i would say Carlos Sastre has a chance, it could be nice to fight to the end after the streak of bad lucks happened to him during the first week. Also i think that no italian will be close to the top 3 (so another Giro passing without a home rider wearing maglia rosa after 21 days). I really don't see Arroyo having the stamina to maintain his current position, and to finish my post in surprising way, my bet is the young croatian climber Robert Kiserlovski!

To proclaim that Arroyo lacks stamina is just a case of ignorance, sorry... He has placed 10th in the giro twice, 13th at Le Tour and 17th and 19th in La Vuelta...that doesn't bode for a "lack of stamina", now does it?

I noticed Kiserlovski a lot of times in minor races last season and he IS indeed talented, but I really don't think he'll manage to cope that excellent with a 3week race for the first time - he participated in La Vuelta last year, but didn't start stage 5. If people say Porte and the other first timers will crack the third week, so will the young Croatian guy - Trees don't grow to heaven for these guys, a top10 will be more than acceptable....

 

[auscyclefan94]

Which they did. But that wasn't nearly enough to at least minimise the gap.

BMC and Astana both lost two domestiques today. Two guys from Astana were out after a huge chasing work, don't know what happened to BMC's ones.

Gastro and fatigue.
Evans' diary entry...

Wet cold and very long day here. 269km on the bike is...pretty tough on your rear end.

As a first, well since I have been racing as a professional, the race leader let an enormous group of 56 riders go. You never thought you would see all of the GC favourites swapping off together in a race? We did it for 50km today, and they still took 12 minutes...

Each day of this year’s Giro, my definition of 'normal' was broadening, I don't think it is worth using the word anymore at....

 

[ludwig]

Not Really Over

It's not really over yet for Evans, Basso, Nibali and Vino. There's still plenty of time to make up 12 minutes. If Basso could recover his 2006 form sure he would get 12 minutes in the coming stages.

The pressure will be on Arroyo. He was one of the strongest in the critical Stage 7, and once again today he is in the right group. But he was off the back a bit on the Terminillo. He'll have to climb as well as he ever has before to hold everyone else off.

Tondo is maybe the biggest threat--he's been stronger than Sastre and should have the right to ride his own race.

Also lots of pressure on Sastre to hold his lead. It's enough that he won't have to worry about losing it in the TT, so it will be up to Evans and Basso to do the attacking.

Richie Porte holding on for even a Top 10 would be incredible. If he were to hold on, would he be a bigger surprise than Andy Schleck in 07? Definitely.


General classification after stage 11 1 Richie Porte (Aus) Team Saxo Bank 45:30:16
2 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:01:42
3 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Liquigas-Doimo 0:01:56
4 Xavier Tondo Volpini (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:03:54
5 Valerio Agnoli (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:04:41
6 Alexander Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 0:05:16
7 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram 0:05:34
8 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:07:09
9 Laurent Didier (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:07:24
10 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:08:14
11 Jan Bakelandts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:08:35
12 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 0:09:58
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:11:10
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:28
15 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:49

 

[dickwrench]

I hope Cadel wins because the other dudes are Spanish and they are all on you know what. Liquigas was big loser because they had sucky riders in the break and Basso just sat on the wheels.

 

[the vagabond]

I don't see how Sastre can be favored over Arroyo. Arroyo's the one experienced GT rider who has all the time - he has a huge gap on Sastre. It's his race to lose. Probably one or two of the other names in the new group will show big, but don't know which it would be. Having said that, I'd still like to see the winner come from one of the "original" lead group, even if Vino beats Evans.

 

[Eyjafjallajokull]

I know it's a bit nationalistic, but we're forgetting that Wiggins out climbed the lot of these guys at the tour last year. If he is close to that form I think he has a real shot.

 

[Runitout]

I am astounded by the petulance and incompetence that led to this situation.

Liquigas were the only team strong enough to pull the break back; that they tried to play chicken when they had the most to lose is dumbfounding. Well, you called the other teams' bluff. Well done. Look where you are now.

I don't think Porte can quite hold it, but he is in with a shot. Arroyo, Tondo and Sastre are all strong enough, in my opinion, to hold off the remainder. If Astana or BMC had any strength left, I could foresee another split happening; now, it will be up to the leaders to do it all themselves in the hills.

Assuming the present trend of form is accurate, one could envisage Porte, Tondo, Sastre, Evans , Arroyo, Basso, Nibali and Kiserlovski all finishing within two or three minutes of each other. This Giro is far to hard to predict, though.

On this parcours, Tondo is my pick.

General classification after stage 11 1 Richie Porte (Aus) Team Saxo Bank 45:30:16
2 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:01:42
3 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Liquigas-Doimo 0:01:56
4 Xavier Tondo Volpini (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:03:54
5 Valerio Agnoli (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:04:41
6 Alexander Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 0:05:16
7 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram 0:05:34
8 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:07:09
9 Laurent Didier (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:07:24
10 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:08:14
11 Jan Bakelandts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:08:35
12 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 0:09:58
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:11:10
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:28
15 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:49[/QUOTE]

 

[Claudiu]

To proclaim that Arroyo lacks stamina is just a case of ignorance, sorry... He has placed 10th in the giro twice, 13th at Le Tour and 17th and 19th in La Vuelta...that doesn't bode for a "lack of stamina", now does it?

I am aware of his career places in GT, but in this Giro not the past races are running. I didn't said that he lacks stamina in general, i said that i don't see having the stamina to maintain his position to the end, right? Talking to this Giro particularly, it's just how i feel, that the stage 7, with that mud wrestling in strade bianche, followed by Monte Terminillo hard climbing in stage 8, the dreadful weather, and so on, will affect him more than other well placed riders in the final days, when it will be crucial. That is simply how i see it, i don't see the spanish wearing pink, i am not "proclaiming" anything, it is my opinion and i would like to post it without being accused by ignorance.

 

[Night Rider]

I'm not that impressed by Porte, tbh. Don't think he'll be able to defend his lead.

Haha. He's 25, in his first GT, leading after 11 stages and manages to stay in the lead groups where he should be in order to defend his white jersey. Then ends up in Pink. You're a hard task master.

For the record I don't think he will defend the jersey either, but he's not expected to.

Sastre or Evans ftw still.

 

[SpartacusRox]

I am astounded by the petulance and incompetence that led to this situation.

Liquigas were the only team strong enough to pull the break back; that they tried to play chicken when they had the most to lose is dumbfounding. Well, you called the other teams' bluff. Well done. Look where you are now.

I have to agree, this was the worst tactical riding I think I have ever seen by leading teams in a GT, or at least would rank right up there. Beyond the stupidity shown by Liquigas (more or less admitted by Basso despite the finger pointing at Astana) it also showed the weaknesses in Astana because they were obviously unable to mount a chase when they needed to. I think AC will have a bit of a worried frown on his face watching this because the pressure that Astana were under today was nothing like what they will be put under come July.

 

[SpartacusRox]

I am astounded by the petulance and incompetence that led to this situation.

Liquigas were the only team strong enough to pull the break back; that they tried to play chicken when they had the most to lose is dumbfounding. Well, you called the other teams' bluff. Well done. Look where you are now.

I don't think Porte can quite hold it, but he is in with a shot. Arroyo, Tondo and Sastre are all strong enough, in my opinion, to hold off the remainder. If Astana or BMC had any strength left, I could foresee another split happening; now, it will be up to the leaders to do it all themselves in the hills.

Assuming the present trend of form is accurate, one could envisage Porte, Tondo, Sastre, Evans , Arroyo, Basso, Nibali and Kiserlovski all finishing within two or three minutes of each other. This Giro is far to hard to predict, though.

On this parcours, Tondo is my pick.

General classification after stage 11 1 Richie Porte (Aus) Team Saxo Bank 45:30:16
2 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:01:42
3 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Liquigas-Doimo 0:01:56
4 Xavier Tondo Volpini (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:03:54
5 Valerio Agnoli (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:04:41
6 Alexander Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 0:05:16
7 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram 0:05:34
8 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:07:09
9 Laurent Didier (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:07:24
10 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:08:14
11 Jan Bakelandts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:08:35
12 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 0:09:58
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:11:10
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:28
15 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:11:49

[/QUOTE]


I have to agree, this was the worst tactical riding I think I have ever seen by leading teams in a GT, or at least would rank right up there. Beyond the stupidity shown by Liquigas (more or less admitted by Basso despite the finger pointing at Astana) it also showed the weaknesses in Astana because they were obviously unable to mount a chase when they needed to. I think AC will have a bit of a worried frown on his face watching this because the pressure that Astana were under today was nothing like what they will be put under come July.

 

[quiensabe]

Complacency

Reminds me of a cold rainy day in the 2001 TdF (Stage 8 - July 15: Colmar - Pontarlier, 222.5 km) where a group of 12 got away for a 35 minute lead. (the following six stages in the Alps/Pyrnees were epic - LA at his best.)

Of course, in that edition all the realistic hopefuls were 29-36 minutes down. That year, USPostal tried to limit the Stage 8 losses, but no other team was willing to help. I'd guess today was along similar lines with everyone expecting (demanding???) that Astana do all the work (lord knows BMC cant).

Ah! Someone with a good memory! The big split of 2001. As for what happened today - my guess is complacency. "Sastre's is 22nd place, 10 minutes down; Wiggins was a nine-day wonder last year; Arroyo's not important. Let them go." That kind of thinking, until it was too late to catch them back. And now what? I'm not a betting person, and I'll ignore the nonsense about the Italians hating the Spanish & vice versa. (People confusing rivalry with hatred is not good.) But I predict that Vino will fight, as he always does; that Sastre's form will improve with this psycholoical boost; that he and Tondo could be a force in the montains. The only sure thing is that the excitement factor has gone up several points.

 

[luckyboy]

In addition to my original pick, Sastre, I'll add Arroyo. Too hard to predict anything with any confidence though

 

[danjo007]

if sastre can hang on and limit losses on the hard mountain stages, i think he'll win (just) over arroyo.
evans will have to go super aggressive (which is where i think he shines) to even get close. i think he'll will be the only guy from the GC's who will claw their way back.

vino, and astana are just hopeless. not only are they physically a weak team, also mentally weak. sitting up and say "stuff-it" we are not gonna do all the work??? wtf - how long have these guys been racing for? they know the deal.

i reckon theres a few other teams ahead of TDF who are looking at astana with contodor, and are hatching evil plans to destroy their team. astana have now shown how they can be beaten even with one of the best climber-TT's around at the moment. not a very smart move on their part.

 

[therhodeo]

But in the tour you'll have the rider everyone was riding defensively today against working for the guy everyone in the peloton is scared of. I'm not saying Astana can win with 2 guys but having Vino as a domestique will go a long ways.

 

[SpartacusRox]

But in the tour you'll have the rider everyone was riding defensively today against working for the guy everyone in the peloton is scared of. I'm not saying Astana can win with 2 guys but having Vino as a domestique will go a long ways.

No argument there, and I think Vino will be totally committed to supporting AC because Astana is Vino's baby and he wants the team to succeed. Having said that I think they will be put under huge pressure and given the way they cracked today it must raise serious concerns. One things for sure, if AC wins the Tour this year he will have ridden the best race of his life because I can see several stages where he is going to be on his own.

 

[pedaling squares]

Too hard to predict anything with any confidence though

And that is the best thing about this race.

Please reply so I can stare at your avatar.

 

[online-rider]

WOW. - why did i decide to sleep last night and not bother watching Giro??

 

[Ferminal]

WOW. - why did i decide to sleep last night and not bother watching Giro??

So you could get up early and watch the ToC!?

 

[locker]

Richie Porte will win, he can climb and won the baby giro last year and up until tour of romandie i always thought his strengths was climbing

 

[Night Rider]

Richie Porte will win, he can climb and won the baby giro last year and up until tour of romandie i always thought his strengths was climbing

Big call, locker.

I like this quote from him today though in an Australian newspaper.

"This really doesn't happen," he told The Australian by phone. "What were they (the seasoned professionals) thinking? 'Thank your mother for the rabbits,' as Rex Hunt would say.

"Even if the Giro ended today, I can look back one day and say I've had it good. This doesn't really happen to a neo-professional, but I do know I'm going to defend the jersey until my **** gets ripped."

 

[danjo007]

i hope he wins it and launches a great career for him.
i dont think it will.
IF he did win it, then people will probably not give him due credit, and say astana and the other big CG's blew it rather than he won it... (hope im wrong there)

 

[Ferminal]

Richie Porte will win, he can climb and won the baby giro last year and up until tour of romandie i always thought his strengths was climbing

He won the Baby Giro TT, not the overall.

 

[Kazistuta]

I am aware of his career places in GT, but in this Giro not the past races are running. I didn't said that he lacks stamina in general, i said that i don't see having the stamina to maintain his position to the end, right? Talking to this Giro particularly, it's just how i feel, that the stage 7, with that mud wrestling in strade bianche, followed by Monte Terminillo hard climbing in stage 8, the dreadful weather, and so on, will affect him more than other well placed riders in the final days, when it will be crucial. That is simply how i see it, i don't see the spanish wearing pink, i am not "proclaiming" anything, it is my opinion and i would like to post it without being accused by ignorance.

No pun intended

But when there's no real evidence or arguments of Arroyo allegedly lacking the stamina and just "feelings", I had to point out that based on his own GT history that shouldn't be the cause.

Anything MIGHT happen in this giro, but your feelings on the matter is exactly just "feelings" - based on experience Arroyo should be more than capable of defending his lead stamina wise.

But again, no pund intended (that's what the "sorry" was meant to say), just wanted to point out that he Spaniards earlier results doesn't imply that he'll crack from here on - the race has been hard on everyone, not just him.