Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador has won all of his primarily targeted GTs he has finished since 2013, in fact he has done so for over a decade except that year. If not for bad luck, he is the man to beat.

Which, of course, is a grand total of 1 GT. An alternative reading of that statistic, is that he's the man to stay well clear from in the peloton.

No, it's 2 GTs, which is more than most other riders in the peloton will win in their career.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

It is funny... When was the last time he finished a stage race he had gone in with intention of winning, outside of top 5? (Abu Dhabi and Dauphine this year he clearly wasn't going for a result). I cannot remember such a race... Four second places this year, 4th Vuelta last year, winner Burgos, 5th in the Dauphine, winner Pais Vasco, three additional podium spots... 2015... the same... 2014... the same... So now, all of a sudden people claim he should be very happy to be in the top 5 and that even that is unlikely?! Where is the "logic" in that?

Exactly. It boggles the mind.

 

[Hayabusa]

Re:

Contador has won all of his primarily targeted GTs he has finished since 2013, in fact he has done so for over a decade except that year. If not for bad luck, he is the man to beat.

That statistic has as much weight as me saying that Contador has never beaten me in a Grand Tour.

Contador will have done well in the Tour if he doesn't crash and comes away with a top 5. I think hopes of victory rest on bad luck befalling Porte, Froome, Quintana, probably Valverde and Bardet, maybe even Aru/Fuglsang.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Contador has won all of his primarily targeted GTs he has finished since 2013, in fact he has done so for over a decade except that year. If not for bad luck, he is the man to beat.

Which, of course, is a grand total of 1 GT. An alternative reading of that statistic, is that he's the man to stay well clear from in the peloton.

No, it's 2 GTs, which is more than most other riders in the peloton will win in their career.

I think it's only one. Surely in 2014 the primarily targeted GT was the Tour. So that just leaves the 2015 Giro.

No denying that's still impressive, as is any GT win, I don't think that is at debate here. The issue is what would be a good finish for Contador in this Tour. For me, his form in the last two years, relative to other contenders, suggests a par of around 4th or 5th place. Indeed, his last two finished GT results suggest the same. There's endless reasons why it could be different this time, but I think his odds of 20/1 to win and 7/2 to finish top 3 are fair. Maybe even a little optimstic.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It is funny... When was the last time he finished a stage race he had gone in with intention of winning, outside of top 5? (Abu Dhabi and Dauphine this year he clearly wasn't going for a result). I cannot remember such a race... Four second places this year, 4th Vuelta last year, winner Burgos, 5th in the Dauphine, winner Pais Vasco, three additional podium spots... 2015... the same... 2014... the same... So now, all of a sudden people claim he should be very happy to be in the top 5 and that even that is unlikely?! Where is the "logic" in that?

The difference is obviously that most stage races don't have such a high number of quality contenders all at top form. How many stage races do you come up against Quintana, Porte, Froome, Valverde, Aru, Bardet etc... all on top form, plus whichever outsiders do well?

I doubt, for example, many would argue that 4th or 5th wouldn't be a decent result for Valverde. Yet he has beaten Contador three times this season in stage races.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

Your post is full of crap... where was porte against contador in paris nice? Nowhere to be seen bar his stage win. He was dropped like a stone in col d'eze.
Aru? Only showed signs of life in this dauphine after a horrible 2016 season. Froome? He didn't win anything this season. Only valverde is beating contador constantly this season and valverde doesn't have a stellar palmares in tour de france. So what are you talking about?

Porte lost 15 minutes in 2nd stage due to crosswinds.

Please stop behaving so aggressively like you own this, it only makes you silly.

I talked about stage 8!! Where was porte?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

Your post is full of crap... where was porte against contador in paris nice? Nowhere to be seen bar his stage win. He was dropped like a stone in col d'eze.
Aru? Only showed signs of life in this dauphine after a horrible 2016 season. Froome? He didn't win anything this season. Only valverde is beating contador constantly this season and valverde doesn't have a stellar palmares in tour de france. So what are you talking about?

Porte lost 15 minutes in 2nd stage due to crosswinds.

Please stop behaving so aggressively like you own this, it only makes you silly.

I talked about stage 8!! Where was porte?

What's your point? Are you claiming that Contador has been in better form in stage races this year than Porte, purely because Porte had a couple of bad days at Paris-Nice? Despite winning the queen stage there, and then going on to dominate pretty much every other stage race he entered this year?

 

[DFA123]

I see the usual attempts in this thread to derail discussion have started. As they tend to do when facts are brought to the table. Sad!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Why even bother

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Why even bother

Just looking to discuss the chances of one of the most interesting and high profile riders in the peloton, the day before the start of the biggest race of the season. On a cycling forum. Why bother indeed.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

Your post is full of crap... where was porte against contador in paris nice? Nowhere to be seen bar his stage win. He was dropped like a stone in col d'eze.
Aru? Only showed signs of life in this dauphine after a horrible 2016 season. Froome? He didn't win anything this season. Only valverde is beating contador constantly this season and valverde doesn't have a stellar palmares in tour de france. So what are you talking about?

OK, believe what you want. Contador is favourite and has been at the same level as Porte this season.

We'll ignore the fact that Valverde, Porte, Fuglsang and Quintana all have WT stage race wins this season, all of them winning stages in the process. We'll ignore the fact that Froome has been the GT rider to beat for the last five years. And we'll ignore the fact that Aru and Bardet look to be hitting form at just the right time. All form guides point to Contador, right? His 11th place at the Dauphine and 6 years of failure in the Tour make him red hot favourite, right?

Nothing of the kind. AC was competitive in the early season, but logically off his best. In the Dauphine he took a conservative approach, knowing it was about building form, but still finished faster than Froome in the TT and ahead on one of the summit finishes. Then people were pondering over the state of his form, was he over the hill, or was he calculating a super peak in July?

AC had to be ordered by his team to not engage in the fight to not go into the red, to back off and never has he done that in his career. We will see if in the end the calculations were right. If so it won't be a turn around in form, but masterful excecution of a planned progression.

In the meantime the horrible evironment at Oleg Ltd. is over, which really was inimical to finding that serenity and purpose that are necessary components of maximum preparation and performance. At any rate it will be interesting to see if the plan comes together, because if it does AC is going to be in a position to win this thing. And that has not been the case since 2014.

 

[rhubroma]

I'm hoping that none of the GC contenders crash. I think that will lower the prestige of the win. Definitely Alberto needs to keep it upright. He does look good and I think this Tour he truly is going in with much less external pressure. I am surprised that none of the English-speaking outlets that I read are predicting him for better than a top 5 result. I think if he shows up in his best form, he is sitting in a great position to take this race by surprise. He has been so marked on every move in the past, this may provide him an opportunity to do something special. I think Stage 5 will give us the answers we are looking for with regards to his form.

I hope everyone is at their very best, nobody crashes out and may the best man win.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

Your post is full of crap... where was porte against contador in paris nice? Nowhere to be seen bar his stage win. He was dropped like a stone in col d'eze.
Aru? Only showed signs of life in this dauphine after a horrible 2016 season. Froome? He didn't win anything this season. Only valverde is beating contador constantly this season and valverde doesn't have a stellar palmares in tour de france. So what are you talking about?

OK, believe what you want. Contador is favourite and has been at the same level as Porte this season.

We'll ignore the fact that Valverde, Porte, Fuglsang and Quintana all have WT stage race wins this season, all of them winning stages in the process. We'll ignore the fact that Froome has been the GT rider to beat for the last five years. And we'll ignore the fact that Aru and Bardet look to be hitting form at just the right time. All form guides point to Contador, right? His 11th place at the Dauphine and 6 years of failure in the Tour make him red hot favourite, right?

Nothing of the kind. AC was competitive in the early season, but logically off his best. In the Dauphine he took a conservative approach, knowing it was about building form, but still finished faster than Froome in the TT and ahead on one of the summit finishes. Then people were pondering over the state of his form, was he over the hill, or was he calculating a super peak in July?

AC had to be ordered by his team to not engage in the fight to not go into the red, to back off and never has he done that in his career. We will see if in the end the calculations were right. If so it won't be a turn around in form, but masterful excecution of a planned progression.

In the meantime the horrible evironment at Oleg Ltd. is over, which really was inimical to finding that serenity and purpose that are necessary components of maximum preparation and performance. At any rate it will be interesting to see if the plan comes together, because if it does AC is going to be in a position to win this thing. And that has not been the case since 2014.

That's an interesting viewpoint, and one I've seen before on these forums. One question mark I would have though, is that even if the plan is perfect and the execution spot on by Trek (which is quite a big if at this stage); is that still going to be enough to seriously challenge Froome, Quintana and Porte - who are also all trying to peak for the Tour (albeit in very different ways)? All three of those are looking to be better than they were in May/June; so Contador would not only have to close the gap that there has been all season, but then close the further gap to those three riders at their peak Tour form.

Getting away from Tinkov could help, but I'm not so sure I'd count on it. After all, the strongest Contador we've ever seen, in 2009, was hated by half of his own team and most were riding against him. I think like a lot of elite sportsmen he thrives as much in adversity as in a comfortable environment. Although I guess this could have changed as he got older.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

Your post is full of crap... where was porte against contador in paris nice? Nowhere to be seen bar his stage win. He was dropped like a stone in col d'eze.
Aru? Only showed signs of life in this dauphine after a horrible 2016 season. Froome? He didn't win anything this season. Only valverde is beating contador constantly this season and valverde doesn't have a stellar palmares in tour de france. So what are you talking about?

Porte lost 15 minutes in 2nd stage due to crosswinds.

Please stop behaving so aggressively like you own this, it only makes you silly.

I talked about stage 8!! Where was porte?

I know you were talking about stage 8. And I pointed out why it was fallacious. Because you can't quite compare them, since Porte had lost 15 minutes some stages before.

But even if you want to compare them, then you're wrong. And I'll tell you why: neither Porte dropped like a stone, neither was Contador superior to Porte (bar the ITT).
Porte won stage 7 21 seconds ahead of Contador. Contador won the same 21 seconds to Porte in the last stage.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

So in all seriousness, what GC placing should he be satisfied with? I think a podium spot would make the Tour a succes. And I think he has a chance of doing it, but I think that he will ruin it for him self. Not that I would mind that though, as it would mean entertaining racing.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

Fed winning slams this year would've been a bigger turnaround.

It happened.

Well yeah, that turn around in form happened. Federer moved up a level while his rivals moved down several levels - one of the biggest turn around in form in tennis in recent years. Just as it would be if Contador won the Tour.

Anyway, not sure how one unlikely event happening makes another - completely independent event - more or less likely to happen. Of course it's not impossible that Contador wins the race, it would just take a huge reversal in form, for a guy who hasn't won any WT stage race in over a year (or even a stage), and hasn't finished on the podium of the Tour in 7 years. And who has looked at least a level below most of the other main contenders all year.

frankly I don't know if we've really known his true form due to all of the crashes or having the Giro in his legs. it's always interesting how folks chalk his recent Tour results solely to lack of form.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

That's an interesting viewpoint, and one I've seen before on these forums. One question mark I would have though, is that even if the plan is perfect and the execution spot on by Trek (which is quite a big if at this stage); is that still going to be enough to seriously challenge Froome, Quintana and Porte - who are also all trying to peak for the Tour (albeit in very different ways)? All three of those are looking to be better than they were in May/June; so Contador would not only have to close the gap that there has been all season, but then close the further gap to those three riders at their peak Tour form.

Getting away from Tinkov could help, but I'm not so sure I'd count on it. After all, the strongest Contador we've ever seen, in 2009, was hated by half of his own team and most were riding against him. I think like a lot of elite sportsmen he thrives as much in adversity as in a comfortable environment. Although I guess this could have changed as he got older.

Half of his 2009 team was the Buyneel-Armstrong brigade. You really should stop playing the passive troll and aren't clever enough to hoodwink anyone.

Having said that, the legs will do the talking nothing more. If Contador's legs are excellent, they will do what needs to be done. It's up to Froome, Porte and Quintana to resist him.

 

[Publicus]

Re:

I see the usual attempts in this thread to derail discussion have started. As they tend to do when facts are brought to the table. Sad!

I think it has more to do with the lack of context around your comments. You dismiss his form, but don't note his crashes and/or Giro impact. You say he's looked below the level of the other competitors, but when folks point to his actual performance you dismiss them out of hand (see Porte's performance vis-à-vis Contador at Paris-Nice). No one says you have to like Contador or even provide full context with respect to your assessment of him or his potential performance. But you can't complain that folks are derailing the discussion simply because they push back against your jade-laced statements or provide fuller context.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Does anyone know why Trek have the 30's as their bib numbers?

So, does anyone know?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

That's an interesting viewpoint, and one I've seen before on these forums. One question mark I would have though, is that even if the plan is perfect and the execution spot on by Trek (which is quite a big if at this stage); is that still going to be enough to seriously challenge Froome, Quintana and Porte - who are also all trying to peak for the Tour (albeit in very different ways)? All three of those are looking to be better than they were in May/June; so Contador would not only have to close the gap that there has been all season, but then close the further gap to those three riders at their peak Tour form.

Getting away from Tinkov could help, but I'm not so sure I'd count on it. After all, the strongest Contador we've ever seen, in 2009, was hated by half of his own team and most were riding against him. I think like a lot of elite sportsmen he thrives as much in adversity as in a comfortable environment. Although I guess this could have changed as he got older.

Half of his 2009 team was the Buyneel-Armstrong brigade. You really should stop playing the passive troll and aren't clever enough to hoodwink anyone.

Please refrain from your troll accusations. Refusing to acknowledge that Contador is the best GT rider in the world, or that he is one of the favourites for the tour, is not trolling.

I know the 2009 team was Bruyneel-Armstrong. That's exactly why I mentioned it. His best ever form was in 2009, in a hostile environment, moe hostile even than it was at Tinkov, where at least most disagreements were kept in house. So I'm not sure the situation at Tinkov can really be used as a reason for poor performance.

Having said that, the legs will do the talking nothing more. If Contador's legs are excellent, they will do what needs to be done. It's up to Froome, Port and Quintana to resist him.

That's just a meaningless cliche. Ulitmately Contador is 20/1 to win; he's a big outsider - about the same odds as Fuglsang. A podium place would be a good achievement for him.

 

[Leinster]

frankly I don't know if we've really known his true form due to all of the crashes or having the Giro in his legs. it's always interesting how folks chalk his recent Tour results solely to lack of form

Granted it was crashes that put him out in 2014 and 16, but in both cases he had only himself to blame. It's not like he was taken down by a pack crash or an errant tv Moto, he just skidded out on a flat stage, on a pretty inoccuous looking corner last year. I hope he stays upright for the whole Tour this year and shows what he's really capable of, but if he takes another tumble and loses minutes as a result, again, I'm not going to write this year up as "one that got away" as much as a "continuing pattern."

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I see the usual attempts in this thread to derail discussion have started. As they tend to do when facts are brought to the table. Sad!

I think it has more to do with the lack of context around your comments. You dismiss his form, but don't note his crashes and/or Giro impact. You say he's looked below the level of the other competitors, but when folks point to his actual performance you dismiss them out of hand (see Porte's performance vis-à-vis Contador at Paris-Nice). No one says you have to like Contador or even provide full context with respect to your assessment of him or his potential performance. But you can't complain that folks are derailing the discussion simply because they push back against your jade-laced statements or provide fuller context.

Well the derailing of the conversation is more of a reference to the usual suspects posting pictures with seemingly no purpose, apart from to clog up the board. I'm happy to debate any of the points made.

I do acknowledge that Contador beat Porte at Paris-Nice. But only because he lost time on the flat stages (which certainly could happen again in the Tour). What I don't accept, is that the one result at P-N means that there has not been a big gulf between the level of the two riders this season. Porte has clearly been the better stage racer - even at P-N, by far his worst race, he won the queen stage impressively. Likewise, Valverde and Quintana have been a level above as well. And Froome is a separate case, having dominated the Tour for 5 years now. That's why Contador is 4th/5th favourite for me (and the bookies) - about level with Aru and slightly ahead of Bardet/Fuglsang.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

Nothing of the kind. AC was competitive in the early season, but logically off his best. In the Dauphine he took a conservative approach, knowing it was about building form, but still finished faster than Froome in the TT and ahead on one of the summit finishes. Then people were pondering over the state of his form, was he over the hill, or was he calculating a super peak in July?

AC had to be ordered by his team to not engage in the fight to not go into the red, to back off and never has he done that in his career. We will see if in the end the calculations were right. If so it won't be a turn around in form, but masterful excecution of a planned progression.

In the meantime the horrible evironment at Oleg Ltd. is over, which really was inimical to finding that serenity and purpose that are necessary components of maximum preparation and performance. At any rate it will be interesting to see if the plan comes together, because if it does AC is going to be in a position to win this thing. And that has not been the case since 2014.

That's an interesting viewpoint, and one I've seen before on these forums. One question mark I would have though, is that even if the plan is perfect and the execution spot on by Trek (which is quite a big if at this stage); is that still going to be enough to seriously challenge Froome, Quintana and Porte - who are also all trying to peak for the Tour (albeit in very different ways)? All three of those are looking to be better than they were in May/June; so Contador would not only have to close the gap that there has been all season, but then close the further gap to those three riders at their peak Tour form.

Getting away from Tinkov could help, but I'm not so sure I'd count on it. After all, the strongest Contador we've ever seen, in 2009, was hated by half of his own team and most were riding against him. I think like a lot of elite sportsmen he thrives as much in adversity as in a comfortable environment. Although I guess this could have changed as he got older.

What's Contador's record against this trio in 2017 (excluding the Dauphine where he did not ride for GC)?

Also, pointing to the 2009 team AND NOT MENTIONING ARMSTRONG AND HIS SHENINANGINS proves my earlier point. Half the team was hostile to him because he refused to concede leadership to Lance Armstrong, who was also in the process of signing away more than half the team and staff. So unless Mollema is making a power-play within the team to form some new Dutch team to assuage his ego, I don't think the 2009 team polemics are at all relevant.