Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[BlurryVII]

Re:

Interesting assessment from a medical professional who knows cycling well:

Contador's Giro performance was not at his previous level, as I wrote .
His TdF was similar or a little worse , maybe because fatigue and less motivation in the third week of the race.
I suppose he trained too hard between the two races, with not enough recovery.

A medical professinonal isn't supposed to know Contador's numbers in Giro and Tour neither what he did in between.

He got it completely wrong, Contador clearly said plenty of time he was alterning soft trainings and recovery days, hence why he was suffering so much in the first week.

And AC was obviously much better in the Giro, except if you take the solely Finestre day as the benchmark which of course doesn't make sense. He said in the eurosport interview, when asked if he was in the same form as in the Giro, he replied exactly " No, not at all".

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I hope we'll see Contador at his best versus Froome and Quintana are their best next year. Go Alberto!

And Nibali, 4 best climbers and GT riders by a brutal mile.

AND LANDA

Landa is not a proven GT rider, not yet.

 

[ninjadriver]

Re: Re:

I hope we'll see Contador at his best versus Froome and Quintana are their best next year. Go Alberto!

And Nibali, 4 best climbers and GT riders by a brutal mile.

AND LANDA

Landa is not a proven GT rider, not yet.

You wanna make a bet on Landa, ILovecycling???

Landa proved it to me, despite his horrific Giro time trial performance. Landa has that indestructible indefatigable Armstrong in-the-saddle climbing look to him.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I hope we'll see Contador at his best versus Froome and Quintana are their best next year. Go Alberto!

And Nibali, 4 best climbers and GT riders by a brutal mile.

AND LANDA

Landa is not a proven GT rider, not yet.

You wanna make a bet on Landa, ILovecycling???

Landa proved it to me, despite his horrific Giro time trial performance. Landa has that indestructible indefatigable Armstrong in-the-saddle climbing look to him.

easy peasy.. but be aware that im undefeated avatar better with a 4-0 record

..also no long time bets as those are boring (max. to end of the season)

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Re:

Interesting assessment from a medical professional who knows cycling well:

Contador's Giro performance was not at his previous level, as I wrote .
His TdF was similar or a little worse , maybe because fatigue and less motivation in the third week of the race.
I suppose he trained too hard between the two races, with not enough recovery.

To clarify, the medical professional, and perhaps you, though that's unclear, believe that he was as good or maybe marginally worse than he was in 2007, 2009, and 2010? Or is that in comparison to 2011 and 2013?

 

[thehook]

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

 

[ninjadriver]

Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Someone that podiums the Giro will not settle just for being a domestique at his new team even if it is Sky. There are three GTs per year, he will be team leader at one. Although when you look at someone like De Gendt, he podiumed the Giro and went backwards and is a shadow of the rider he was. Maybe injuries and health problems although I never heard such things about him. If Landa wants to be the next Porte he better start riding better TTs but Landa already has a podium in a GT which is more than Porte has. To put things in perspective would Landa have podiumed the Tour ? I doubt it very much. If he is just after money he could settle for being a super domestique but I think he wants more than that if his comments during the Giro are anything to go by.

 

[thehook]

Ninja: I agree 100% on Nibali for next years tour. He will be hungry! And we know he can come in at a very high level. And Nairo knows he can podium. He has to up his TT for next year IMHO.

MovingTarget: Landa is getting PAID first and for most. Riders want the money, who can blame them. There career earning potential can be very short. Yes Landa was in great form at the Giro. And yes he has a Podium in a GT. He can lead SKY at Giro or Vuelta. But when you take the big $, THE BOSS MAN gets to tell you to Dom for Froome.

 

[BlurryVII]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

 

[ninjadriver]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

i disagree. You made is sound like Contador is a so-so rider. We never actually see how 100% contador in the tour yet. He finally got the unbelievable form last year just to crash. So everything is now speculation. I heard Porte's interview, he said Froome hasn't been healthy for long time (either he means during the tour or just in general). With his skinny body, his achilles heels is his health. His win this year and 2013 are different. He was dominant on the first mountain stage and he is beatable on week three. Quintana, he needs more experience to topple either Froome/Contador. Nibali, if there's cobble again, he can buffer his lead before mountain. Contador 100% has just about the same chance as Nibali, Quintana or Froome to win TDF. I won't ride him that completely. Unless he tries Giro-Tour double again. He rarely fails when he targets one GT goal. (except 2013)

 

[BlurryVII]

Re: Re:

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

Yeah but as long as Contador comes in rested, in top form as well, I don't see those riders being a threat;

The odds are irrelevant, of course they won't give him winner since he hasn't won the Tour since 2010, but there are reasons for that.

All your paragraph about the gradient is absolute nonsense, Contador's even better on average gradient 7 - 12% than he is on extreme gradient.

 

[orangerider]

Froome is the rider to beat, no question about that. Bert has a fairly good chance to ace out Quintaka if there's a long ITT next year. Nibali, Pinot, Piti, et al, are second tier compared to a peaked untired Contador. It will all depend on how well he prepares his schedule and what demands are placed on him for mandatory participation in races he doesn't want to be in. Maybe if Olga has to be sole sponsor then this will work well for him since there's less promo need. Health, obviously, too. Motiviation seems to be there if this is in fact going to be his last upcoming season, he wants to go out with a bang and will train hard.

 

[buchanan]

The most accurate gauge we have at this point for next year's Tour de France is the collective bookmaker's odds (which can be found on Oddschecker.com). Froome is of course the big favourite (as he was before this year's Tour) at 6/4. Contador is 3rd favourite with longish odds of 9/1.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Oh come on, the odds don't tell anything at this point. They go by this year's TDF, once Alberto shows good form next year his odds will shorten dramatically.

 

[SeriousSam]

The odds might rise or fall as more information comes in. If the odds are correct given what we know today, then their expected change must be 0 by the law of total probability.

This makes intuitive sense. If you know that the odds will change, why don't they change immediately? It being common knowledge that Apple stock prices rise isn't compatible with a lower stock price right now.

 

[fungusbear]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

Because Contador's odds of winning the 2016 Giro and the 2016 Vuelta (meaning both, not just one) are substantially greater than his odds of winning the 2016 TDF, because, while the Giro and Vuelta generally have harder courses:

1. The TDF has far superior fields, so every stage is faster and harder.
2. The TDF climbs are easier (less steep) than are the Giro's (Zoncolan, Mortirolo, etc.) or the Vuelta's (L'Angliru, etc.), so the TDF course does not favor Contador.
3. I predict Froome, Landa (if supporting Froome), Quintana, Nibali (if no longer on Astana), Aru (if Nibali no longer is on Astana), Bardet and Pinot all will ride the TDF, and none of whom will ride the Giro or the Vuelta, or at least on rested, top form.

So, lots of reasons. But Contador will ignore them all, and go for the TDF. I give him substantially less than a 50% chance, although I'd be rooting hard for him.

Surely Nibali will be going to the Giro next year!? Also, does anyone else think that Contador will ride on into 2017 so he can go for the Gir-Vuelta double. I think 2017 is the 100th anniversary of the Giro- I would be surprised if he passes on the chance to win that!

 

[Electress]

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

I hear - don't know if it's true - that Nibs will do the Giro next year. I hope so. I am really hoping we have a return to Nibs 1.0. I enjoyed lots of races way more this year than the Tour, despite going to France to watch it. Felt like such a circus rather than the race a lot of the time. I usually like the protracted unfolding narrative of the GTs, but even the Giro, in retrospect, was probably saved by Contador being injured and outnumbered. But the absurdity of Astana's power also left a bad taste. Mortirolo was a great watch, but on the whole, over the whole race, the Vuelta has been my favourite, probably because there was the unknown factor of two riders recovering from injury and hence some uncertainty.

I hope this year's Vuelta isn't just an Astana vs. Sky arms race. I'm not sure I will watch if so.

 

[Big Doopie]

Re: Re:

I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Huh? But he would have to win one more and make it 12 then. After all Merckx - according to you - must have won the 1969 Giro.

This thread should be locked under games and fantasy.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

As great a Giro as Landa had this season. He is not a PROVEN GT commodity. YET! However he is going to SKY and they could pull out that talent in him. To me I see him as the next "Porte". Powels does not have that GT contender talent. He is pure climbing help.

AC doing the double this season was his choice. Yes Oleg wanted the Giro. He lives in Italy. Now he will ask AC to go for the Tour next season. If AC hits his 14' form. He could beat Froome. But he needs to have that form. And he knows it.

Hook, I would post the following odds for Contador vs. Froome in the 2016 TDF, assuming great health for both and not knowing how TT-heavy the course will be, with Alberto as a marginal favorite, despite Froome having the better team and in part because Contador tactically is the superior rider:

Froome +120
Contador -140

HOWEVER, the other problems we must not forget are called Nibali, Quintana, maybe Landa (unless he's Kloden super domestique-ing for Froome) and Aru. Nibali will be gunning next year, and he is a super high class rider, like him or not.

And what if Bardet or Pinot improve??? I'd so much rather a then 33 year old Contador do the Giro & Vuelta, take his Grand Tour total to a record-tying 11, and call it a career.

Contador can perfectly win the Tour with a good run up and preperation, why would he go do Giro - Vuelta when he can win the Tour? Especially after all these years, he said he will not end his career without winning the Tour and prove he is the best.

Where has he said that? I remember him always saying he wants to retire at the height of his powers or words to those effect. To me that means not ending up a dom like Samu and Basso. But I've never seen a quote that specifically says 'Win the Tour' again'. I'd sure like to see the source, thanks!

 

[Carols]

Re:

The most accurate gauge we have at this point for next year's Tour de France is the collective bookmaker's odds (which can be found on Oddschecker.com). Froome is of course the big favourite (as he was before this year's Tour) at 6/4. Contador is 3rd favourite with longish odds of 9/1.

I'm going to grab those odds while I can .

 

[warmfuzzies]

In the post-WW2 era of the Tour, the MAX number of years between a multi-Tour winner's first and last victory was 8. This gap occurred twice, Anquetil (1957-1964) and Hinault (1978-1985). In the entire history of the Tour, only Bartali's wins in 1938 and 1948 were further apart in time (11 years). Contador first won the Tour in 2007. The 2016 parcours will be the 9th year after his first win. A century of history suggests Contador's success odds are very low.

 

[Carols]

Re:

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

The Indurain years were the same and so were the Armstrong years. Those years it got kind of boring and if Froome and Sky can go back to back multiple years the Tour will get boring again. The Giro and Vuleta have always been more open races that is why they are favored by more 'cycling fans' than the Tour, IMO.

Personally I don't think Froome will win more than 1 more Tour, he is already 30. People forget he didn't become a phenom until he'd been in the peloton for many years. Everyone acts as if he started in 2011 LOL!

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

My personal feeling is that if Contador wins the Tour, he'll go to the Olympics and the Vuelta, a course which I'm sure they'll pretty much design for him to ensure he goes in his 'final' year. If he goes on to win the Vuelta, he will ride the 100th Giro…he'd have to be an idiot not to try for one last time to hold all three Tours in a row and being able to focus on the hardest one - the Giro - for 2017 would make the task a lot easier than trying to do the double the other way. And it needn't involve announcing it as an intention…all predicated on what happens at the Tour in 2016.

But in many ways, though it makes me sad, I won't be sorry to see Contador retire. GTs are becoming more and more about team power and less about individual brain and brawn, IMO, and it is to the detriment for my enjoyment of the sport. It makes it a much more power vs. intelligence race than previously and generally much more leaning towards the defensive than an attacking strategy, which is more predictable. Aside from stage 2 and Nibali's antics on 19, the Tour didn't really do it for me. Nairo attacked far too little too late, and there was no way he was ever going to make up the time he needed on Alpe unless Froome had a mechanical. I'll admit had Contador won, I might have felt happier, but even so, despite the course, it didn't really take off.

The Indurain years were the same and so were the Armstrong years. Those years it got kind of boring and if Froome and Sky can go back to back multiple years the Tour will get boring again. The Giro and Vuleta have always been more open races that is why they are favored by more 'cycling fans' than the Tour, IMO.

Personally I don't think Froome will win more than 1 more Tour, he is already 30. People forget he didn't become a phenom until he'd been in the peloton for many years. Everyone acts as if he started in 20111 LOL!

Imo, he can win 2 more Tours with a Giro and a Vuelta. 1 more Tour and 1 Vuelta is what I predict he'll finish his palmares with, maybe 2 Vueltas/1 Vuelta + 1 Giro if he does really well