Better Win: Nibali 2014 TdF or Gilbert 2017 RVV

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Neither of them wouldve won without those crashes, but at least Gilbert was arguably the best rider on the startlist in the first place

I think you are underestimating 2014 Nibali a bit. It's possible that would have been beaten but you are saying that as if thats for sure.

That seems to be the way to express an opinion on this forum these days :lol:

But fwiw, Contador was able to drop Nibs off his wheel on a cat 3 before crashing out. Even without a temporary alliance between Froome and Contador, the 2 mins Nibs gained on the cobbles wouldnt have lasted long on the harder stuff

Nibali has always been better on longer climbs than sorter climbs. The times he put in Risoul and Hautacam (especially this one) were more than enough to stay with Bertie and 2013 Froome.

Yes, but so are Froome and Contador... in fact if anything, Nibali is more specialised to short punchy climbs than Froome and Contador are

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Neither of them wouldve won without those crashes, but at least Gilbert was arguably the best rider on the startlist in the first place

I think you are underestimating 2014 Nibali a bit. It's possible that would have been beaten but you are saying that as if thats for sure.

That seems to be the way to express an opinion on this forum these days :lol:

But fwiw, Contador was able to drop Nibs off his wheel on a cat 3 before crashing out. Even without a temporary alliance between Froome and Contador, the 2 mins Nibs gained on the cobbles wouldnt have lasted long on the harder stuff

Nibali has always been better on longer climbs than sorter climbs. The times he put in Risoul and Hautacam (especially this one) were more than enough to stay with Bertie and 2013 Froome.

Yes, but so are Froome and Contador... in fact if anything, Nibali is more specialised to short punchy climbs than Froome and Contador are

I chuckled

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

This is a very important question; I'm glad that we finally have a thread to discuss this issue...

LOL. Finally. I couldn't wait any longer!!

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Neither of them wouldve won without those crashes, but at least Gilbert was arguably the best rider on the startlist in the first place

I think you are underestimating 2014 Nibali a bit. It's possible that would have been beaten but you are saying that as if thats for sure.

That seems to be the way to express an opinion on this forum these days :lol:

But fwiw, Contador was able to drop Nibs off his wheel on a cat 3 before crashing out. Even without a temporary alliance between Froome and Contador, the 2 mins Nibs gained on the cobbles wouldnt have lasted long on the harder stuff

Nibali has always been better on longer climbs than sorter climbs. The times he put in Risoul and Hautacam (especially this one) were more than enough to stay with Bertie and 2013 Froome.

Yes, but so are Froome and Contador... in fact if anything, Nibali is more specialised to short punchy climbs than Froome and Contador are

Really? Contador has done very well in Fleche Wallone before - the only classic apart from Milano Torino (also punchy) he has done well in. Froome has dominated a Mur de Huy stage and has shown how good he is on short steep slopes in the Vuelta. Even in the 2013 Vuelta, Nibali struggled on the early steep slopes, and again later on. Nibali is good on very hard rolling terrain like that Tirreno stage, but more out of bravery and tactics than actual skill. Contador otoh has dominated Pais Vascos. And also there's that stage where he on Tropea when he destroyed the rest on an easy 1km climb.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Let me put it like this.

The Ronde 2017 is a big what if

The 2014 Tour is the biggest what if I can remember

So Ronde is a much 'better' win?

Obviously its not. When you are winning Tour de France like that, regardless of pretty much anything, its a huge, huge deal. 4 stages and as easy as it comes, sheer dominance, biggest scene in the world.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Let me put it like this.

The Ronde 2017 is a big what if

The 2014 Tour is the biggest what if I can remember

So Ronde is a much 'better' win?

Obviously its not. When you are winning Tour de France like that, regardless of pretty much anything, its a huge, huge deal. 4 stages and as easy as it comes, sheer dominance, biggest scene in the world.

Nah. I'm not comparing their value/effort or whatever. It's just the comparison that makes a lot more sense to me than the one that's being discussed.

 

[hazaran]

What makes a better win? A better win is hard-earned, a surprise. If you win the Tour by over 7 minutes and 19 days in yellow, it doesn't appear that way at all. Case in point: *Peraud* came 2nd..

 

[Breh]

I'd like to debate this being the most useless thread I've seen in my short period here.

Should I start a poll?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I'd like to debate this being the most useless thread I've seen in my short period here.

Should I start a poll?

I'm assuming you're joking

 

[Netserk]

Re:

What makes a better win? A better win is hard-earned, a surprise. If you win the Tour by over 7 minutes and 19 days in yellow, it doesn't appear that way at all. Case in point: *Peraud* came 2nd..

Peraud was the best of the rest. Hardly Nibali's fault.

Would his win have been better if he only beat Peraud with 1 second?

I'd like to debate this being the most useless thread I've seen in my short period here.

Should I start a poll?

It'd have to be in the 'about the forum' sub.

 

[42x16ss]

Nibali's form in 2014 was nuts. The numbers he was putting out would have guaranteed that he'd have gone toe to toe with Contador and Froome.

Over 7 minutes into Peraud and Pinot without truly exerting himself says everything. Quintana would have struggled to beat him as well.

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

Re:

I think it's an odd poll and question, but I'll still bite. Phil Gil's win of course. He beat good competition. Who did Nibbes beat over 3 whole weeks?

Contador and Froome

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Nibali's form in 2014 was nuts. The numbers he was putting out would have guaranteed that he'd have gone toe to toe with Contador and Froome.

Over 7 minutes into Peraud and Pinot without truly exerting himself says everything. Quintana would have struggled to beat him as well.

Quintana definitely wouldn't have beaten Nibali in 2014 after that cobbled stage. If the stage was scrapped and they both were in s.t. he most likely wouldn't have won anyways - he wasn't that good in 2014 which was his worst year climbing wise from 2013-2016, altho its a little hard to judge as he struggled with sickness (or whatever) in the Giro and crashed out of the Vuelta before he could assert himself (the stages Contador won, 16 and 20, were literally created for Quintana to win in that Vuelta).

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

[quote="PremierAndrew
I think you are underestimating 2014 Nibali a bit. It's possible that would have been beaten but you are saying that as if thats for sure.

That seems to be the way to express an opinion on this forum these days :lol:

But fwiw, Contador was able to drop Nibs off his wheel on a cat 3 before crashing out. Even without a temporary alliance between Froome and Contador, the 2 mins Nibs gained on the cobbles wouldnt have lasted long on the harder stuff

Nibali has always been better on longer climbs than sorter climbs. The times he put in Risoul and Hautacam (especially this one) were more than enough to stay with Bertie and 2013 Froome.

Yes, but so are Froome and Contador... in fact if anything, Nibali is more specialised to short punchy climbs than Froome and Contador are

Really? Contador has done very well in Fleche Wallone before - the only classic apart from Milano Torino (also punchy) he has done well in. Froome has dominated a Mur de Huy stage and has shown how good he is on short steep slopes in the Vuelta. Even in the 2013 Vuelta, Nibali struggled on the early steep slopes, and again later on. Nibali is good on very hard rolling terrain like that Tirreno stage, but more out of bravery and tactics than actual skill. Contador otoh has dominated Pais Vascos. And also there's that stage where he on Tropea when he destroyed the rest on an easy 1km climb.[/quote]

Froome didn't dominate anything, he was distant second behind Purito. If that was a dominant performance, then Alaphilippe and Dan Martin are Mur de Huy immortals!

This has nothing to do with previous posts, I agree that Froome and Contador are better than Nibali on short steep climbs.

 

[DFA123]

Not sure why Contador is being referenced as a factor re. 2014. He hasn't finished in the top 3 of the Tour for six years now (seven if you don't include his 2010 result). It hardly diminishes Nibali's achievements that a rider with such a record crashed out early. It's ridiculous to speculate that Nibali would be beaten by a rider with that record, given the form he had that Tour, with a two minute lead. Froome, possibly would have had a chance, but it's hardly a major what if. It's not like Nibali just scraped by ahead of Pinot and Peraud - he absolutely destroyed the field and was a thoroughly worthy champion.

The bigger 'what if' in 2014, imo, is by how many minutes Quintana would have won the Vuelta had he not crashed out.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Im also pretty confident Quintana had won that Vuelta, but that's never really discussed at this forum. Albeit not spectacular, I think his Giro performance in the last week showed what he was capable of. Contador in 2014 in Tour de France, on the other hand, is to this day still debated vividly..

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

Not sure why Contador is being referenced as a factor re. 2014. He hasn't finished in the top 3 of the Tour for six years now (seven if you don't include his 2010 result). It hardly diminishes Nibali's achievements that a rider with such a record crashed out early. It's ridiculous to speculate that Nibali would be beaten by a rider with that record, given the form he had that Tour, with a two minute lead. Froome, possibly would have had a chance, but it's hardly a major what if. It's not like Nibali just scraped by ahead of Pinot and Peraud - he absolutely destroyed the field and was a thoroughly worthy champion.

The bigger 'what if' in 2014, imo, is by how many minutes Quintana would have won the Vuelta had he not crashed out.

Because Contador was in amazing shape in 2014, anyone with a bit of cycling knowledge could see that.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

Im also pretty confident Quintana had won that Vuelta, but that's never really discussed at this forum. Albeit not spectacular, I think his Giro performance in the last week showed what he was capable of. Contador in 2014 in Tour de France, on the other hand, is to this day still debated vividly..

Lol, he couldn't even defeat Uran fairly in that Giro. :lol:

And without Contador, he also would have lost the Vuelta last year.

People say Nibali is lucky, but at least he has won a GT on pure strength alone (Giro 2013).

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Not sure why Contador is being referenced as a factor re. 2014. He hasn't finished in the top 3 of the Tour for six years now (seven if you don't include his 2010 result). It hardly diminishes Nibali's achievements that a rider with such a record crashed out early. It's ridiculous to speculate that Nibali would be beaten by a rider with that record, given the form he had that Tour, with a two minute lead. Froome, possibly would have had a chance, but it's hardly a major what if. It's not like Nibali just scraped by ahead of Pinot and Peraud - he absolutely destroyed the field and was a thoroughly worthy champion.

The bigger 'what if' in 2014, imo, is by how many minutes Quintana would have won the Vuelta had he not crashed out.

Because Contador was in amazing shape in 2014, anyone with a bit of cycling knowledge could see that.

The facts though are that Nibali was already well ahead of Froome - plus the likes of Contador and Pinot - by the time that Froome and Contador crashed out. Nothing Contador has done since 2010 suggests he would have come close to clawing back that time in the Tour. Even just about managing to hang on to Froome's wheel by his fingernails in the Dauphine doesn't change that. Nibali's form and numbers were the best we have ever seen him in that race, and he was the bookies favourite when the other riders crashed out. Therefore, the what ifs are pretty small.

The 2014 Vuelta is more interesting, because Quintana was in the leaders jersey and was the favourite for the race when he crashed out. That makes the 'what ifs' a lot stronger and more relevant for the Vuelta than for the Tour of that year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

No, 2013 doesn't count because stages were shortened and cancelled, his biggest rival going into the race was Wiggins, Evans was pathetic yet still managed podium, a random Sky-domestique was 2nd overall, Nibali enjoys bad weather so he was lucky, the defending champion abandoned (as did Wiggo), so we obviously can't count 2013 on pure strength either.

 

[Brullnux]

@Mr white

I should've said dominated his GC rivals.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Im also pretty confident Quintana had won that Vuelta, but that's never really discussed at this forum. Albeit not spectacular, I think his Giro performance in the last week showed what he was capable of. Contador in 2014 in Tour de France, on the other hand, is to this day still debated vividly..

Indeed. The other thing about 2014 Tour as well, is that if there was one rider who perhaps could have won without crashes, it was Froome not Contador. Froome is the rider who has dominated every other Tour since 2012 and is the rider who could potentially gain minutes in the TT.

Personally I think Contador was very, very lucky with how the GTs panned out in 2014. Firstly the crash in the Tour, when he was already a long way behind an on fire Nibali allowed him to re-focus and go for the Vuelta. And then, at the Vuelta, Quintana - the race leader and favourite crashed out, leaving him a straightforward path to victory against a below-par Froome.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Not sure why Contador is being referenced as a factor re. 2014. He hasn't finished in the top 3 of the Tour for six years now (seven if you don't include his 2010 result). It hardly diminishes Nibali's achievements that a rider with such a record crashed out early. It's ridiculous to speculate that Nibali would be beaten by a rider with that record, given the form he had that Tour, with a two minute lead. Froome, possibly would have had a chance, but it's hardly a major what if. It's not like Nibali just scraped by ahead of Pinot and Peraud - he absolutely destroyed the field and was a thoroughly worthy champion.

The bigger 'what if' in 2014, imo, is by how many minutes Quintana would have won the Vuelta had he not crashed out.

Because Contador was in amazing shape in 2014, anyone with a bit of cycling knowledge could see that.

The facts though are that Nibali was already well ahead of Froome - plus the likes of Contador and Pinot - by the time that Froome and Contador crashed out. Nothing Contador has done since 2010 suggests he would have come close to clawing back that time in the Tour. Even just about managing to hang on to Froome's wheel by his fingernails in the Dauphine doesn't change that. Nibali's form and numbers were the best we have ever seen him in that race, and he was the bookies favourite when the other riders crashed out. Therefore, the what ifs are pretty small.

The 2014 Vuelta is more interesting, because Quintana was in the leaders jersey and was the favourite for the race when he crashed out. That makes the 'what ifs' a lot stronger and more relevant for the Vuelta than for the Tour of that year.

https://cyclingtips.com/2014/10/vuelta-a-espana-climbing-speeds-how-should-we-interpret-the-data/

CyclingTips: How do they compare to Nibali in this year’s Tour de France plus Froome in last year’s Tour?

(...)

@ammattipyöräily: There were too few long climbs to calculate average power outputs. Anyway I think Contador and Froome weren’t as strong as Nibali in this year’s Tour and Froome in 2013 Tour.

Contador and Froome abandoned the Tour de France due to injuries. Obviously they weren’t in the best condition in Vuelta a España. The Tinkoff-Saxo owner Oleg Tinkov has said that Contador would have won the Tour de France despite Nibali leading Contador by 2.34 before stage ten.

In August I thought Tinkov was joking but I had to change my opinion after Vuelta a España. Contador was much stronger than I expected at Vuelta.

 

[DFA123]

That quote is all over the place. Makes no sense at all.

The only take away i see from it is that people were still fooled that Contador actually had a serious injury and wasn't training really hard for the month before the Vuelta. He was in best condition in the Vuelta, and was behind Quintana until the latter crashed out.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thats really no argument in my eyes. We can speculate and look into those numbers all we want, but when Ross Tucker says something like this: "So my overall assessment – Contador and Froome in the 2014 Vuelta were in the same kind of condition Froome had in the 2013 Tour de France."

Yeah, right. Froome were at least 1 level, rather 2 probably, above his 2014 Vuelta form in 2013 during Tour de France.