Cadel Evans......2010 TdF Champion?

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He doesn't have to attack with a minute advantage. He has to wheelsuck.....and we know he can do that....

He was slowly ridden out of Basso's wheel when in better shape than he is for this tour.

Contador could take 1 minute+ on him in at least 5 stages if he wished.

 

[ManInFull]

Yes, Evans can certainly wheel-suck, but he usally ends up getting dropped. Maybe he will find the strength to ride with whoever is strongest that particular day. How did Armstrong and Contador miss out on the elite group? Were they not as close to the front as they needed to be or did F. Schleck's crash slow them down?

 

[Publicus]

Can he do it? Where can he lose this race? He's got a minute on Contador to work with. Not a bad position.

Yes. Mountains.

 

[scribe]

Yes. Mountains.

Yes, he'll suck wheels and win this in the mountains?

 

[Publicus]

Yes, Evans can certainly wheel-suck, but he usally ends up getting dropped. Maybe he will find the strength to ride with whoever is strongest that particular day. How did Armstrong and Contador miss out on the elite group? Were they not as close to the front as they needed to be or did F. Schleck's crash slow them down?

The Frank Schleck crash caused the splits.

 

[scribe]

Yes, Evans can certainly wheel-suck, but he usally ends up getting dropped. Maybe he will find the strength to ride with whoever is strongest that particular day. How did Armstrong and Contador miss out on the elite group? Were they not as close to the front as they needed to be or did F. Schleck's crash slow them down?

Shrek's crash and bottle neck of the cobble stretch, and Cancellara driving the split.....were the causes of that selection.

Contador was even further back and bridged to armstrong's group. Then Armstrong had a mechanical and couldn't get close to the Contador group.

 

[Publicus]

I don't know. After the prologue, AC seems a bit more vulnerable in that discipline than one might expect.

I think it will be a lot like 2007. With Andy Schleck playing the part of Rassmussen for a bit. Cuddles is going to have some painful days in the Pyrenees, but will be in contact and looking to make gains in the TT (where he should claw back some time on AC (long and flat favors him over AC)).

But AC's prologue, IMO, demonstrated how strong he actually is this year. Pancake flat and he finishes in the top 10 (at 136 pounds)? That's impressive power he has to be putting out.

 

[Publicus]

Yes, he'll suck wheels and win this in the mountains?

No. You asked can he do it. Yes he can do it. Where could he lose it? In the mountains. He can't hold AC's wheel. Not one bit. That being said, AC has faltered in a similar course before (see 2007 TdF), so it's not impossible for Cadel to hold on for the win (hence the first answer).

 

[palmerq]

It would be nice for evans to win it(although there is a few guys i would prefer to win it ahead of him) and I think he would deserve such a win due to the way he has bee riding for a while now... but i think he will be beaten in the mountains quite badly and his hard season will catch up with him.

 

[Hugh Januss]

disturbing!!

Yeah, we didn't deserve that at all.

 

[BeachBum]

CAN he do it? Yes, but only if both Conti and Shrek Jr bonk badly or crash out. 2d or 3d seem a more realistic goal. Just like everybody else is saying, he will lose time in the big mtns. He will be one of the last dropped, along with Menchov, but they will be dropped.

 

[turtlesoup]

I see conto having a harder time making up the 30 secs on andy then 1 minute on cadel. Cadel had a horrible tour last year (dont care what he says about his team) and He had a really tough giro. Who the hell is going to pull him through the mountains?

 

[erader]

I see conto having a harder time making up the 30 secs on andy then 1 minute on cadel. Cadel had a horrible tour last year (dont care what he says about his team) and He had a really tough giro. Who the hell is going to pull him through the mountains?

really? you mean there are no TTs in this tour ?

ed rader

 

[Señor_Contador]

Come on guys. Do you really think Cadel stands a chance over the mountains?

Common sense please.

 

[scribe]

Come on guys. Do you really think Cadel stands a chance over the mountains?

Comon sense please.

I love these types of errors.

 

[turtlesoup]

really? you mean there are no TTs in this tour ?

ed rader

he is the TT champ of luxembourg (even if he did only beat 3 other guys), franks TT time in the recent tour de suisse made me think the schlecks spent alot of time practicing.

 

[Señor_Contador]

I love these types of errors.

I was going to say something but... forget it.

We're all soldiers in the Army of the Lord brother.

 

[ScottyMuser]

he is the TT champ of luxembourg (even if he did only beat 3 other guys), franks TT time in the recent tour de suisse made me think the schlecks spent alot of time practicing.

It doesn't really matter how much time you spend practising, Contador is SO much *quicker* that Schleck. Where Schleck is awesome is mountains. The wya he can ride in mountains (easily one of the top 2 mountain climbers of the lot) would indicate, usually, a useless time trial. And if he had been practising his time trialling, one would have expected him to at least show some of this on the prologue - where he lost 42 seconds to a (for him) poor Contador performance, coming in 122nd, and behind the likes of Rodriguez (and 12 seconds behind Frank)
The question for me is whether Schleck/Menchov (as both are, IMO, far superior in the harder mountains, especially considering Evans' fitness after completing the Giro won't be as high) can gain enough time on Evans so he can afford to drop a min in the ITT (which is the most realistically I can see Evans getting - his TTing isn't quite as good now as it was a few years ago as he has improved the ability to attack others or shallower climbs)
For me, a top 5 (as I said previously) for Evans would be a massive achievement, as I can't see him being able to stick with a group of, say, Conti/Schleck/Menchov/Wiggo/Basso/Kreuzeiger in the steeper moutains, if only because of lack of team strength).

 

[rghysens]

Unfortunately, I think Contador can and will put a minute into him in the mountains. But let's see.

In every single mountain stage, you mean?

 

[rhubroma]

Cadel will loose time in the mountains to Basso, Contador, and Schleck.

 

[Mario Cipollini]

Agreed that Cadel will lose minutes in the mountains to AC. Yet, as he hasn't lost the race in the first week in a team time trial, and has often performed very well in his second grand tour of the season... I'm hoping that Cadel can put himself through the pain box one more time and end up on the podium in Paris, which would be a fantastic effort, Go Cadel!

 

[Sydney Sider]

It doesn't really matter how much time you spend practising, Contador is SO much *quicker* that Schleck. Where Schleck is awesome is mountains. The wya he can ride in mountains (easily one of the top 2 mountain climbers of the lot) would indicate, usually, a useless time trial. And if he had been practising his time trialling, one would have expected him to at least show some of this on the prologue - where he lost 42 seconds to a (for him) poor Contador performance, coming in 122nd, and behind the likes of Rodriguez (and 12 seconds behind Frank)
The question for me is whether Schleck/Menchov (as both are, IMO, far superior in the harder mountains, especially considering Evans' fitness after completing the Giro won't be as high) can gain enough time on Evans so he can afford to drop a min in the ITT (which is the most realistically I can see Evans getting - his TTing isn't quite as good now as it was a few years ago as he has improved the ability to attack others or shallower climbs)
For me, a top 5 (as I said previously) for Evans would be a massive achievement, as I can't see him being able to stick with a group of, say, Conti/Schleck/Menchov/Wiggo/Basso/Kreuzeiger in the steeper moutains, if only because of lack of team strength).

Your comments were realistic about Evans until you put WIggo in the group with Menchov , Basso , Kreuzeiger ,Contador and Schleck .

If its only because of lack of team strength how can you include Wiggo in that group , yes Team Sky had a good day today but come the high mountains not a chance of Wiggo having much support

 

[unsheath]

I see conto having a harder time making up the 30 secs on andy then 1 minute on cadel. Cadel had a horrible tour last year (dont care what he says about his team) and He had a really tough giro. Who the hell is going to pull him through the mountains?

He took 40 seconds off him in 8km you donkey.

 

[karlboss]

If Cadel wheel sucks, he will lose. In all probability he will lose, but if he tries to hang with Contador in the mountains and then out TT him at best he'll drop 30 seconds per Mountain top finish and TT with him, and that is extraordinarily optimistic.

 

[2beeDammed]

a minute in a pretty good head start if you ask me. Evans can beat the evil Contador in the ITT and as long as he doesn't blow up in the Pyrenees it's his to loose