Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[rzombie1988]

you clearly never watched paris nice. . . .

You are correct. It's not a GT though and GT Contador is a little different.

 

[sagard]

Cadel needs AC and AS to waste a stage or two playing their typical patty cake games up a high mountain. If those two decide to work together, he will still have trouble. Then he has to find a strong climber like Sanchez and get on his wheel. Lastly of course he has to stay healthy and avoid bad luck.

 

[Andre.J]

Evans will need a 5 minute lead on all GC Contenders heading into the mountains for him to have a chance.

 

[Dermie]

HHmmm interesting, did Cadel have a 4 1/2 minute lead when Contador beat Cadel into second by 30 secs previously??

 

[rzombie1988]

That was 2007 and he would have been further down if Rasmussen wasn't robbed. He was over 5 minutes down on Rasmussen before Rasmussen got kicked off. All I'm going to say is when Levi Leipheimer gets on the podium, it's not a strong year. No Andy that year either and Frank was not up to that level at that point. No Lance, Vino got kicked off and Menchov didn't quite develop yet. Sastre was there though as was Valverde.

Don't even get me started on 2006, where Cadel was 4'11" down on OSCAR PEREIRO.

 

[Parrulo]

HHmmm interesting, did Cadel have a 4 1/2 minute lead when Contador beat Cadel into second by 30 secs previously??

wasn't that back in 2007 when contador was 24 and evans 30? so one still developing himself as a rider and the other at the absolute top of his game (a game that he hasn't shown in what? 3 seasons?) for the mountains+ itt if contador is indeed in good shape evans would need like 10 minutes because if contador needs that kind of time he will for it and get it.

btw you proly don't know about this because. . . well because there isn't cycling outside july but contador put 7 minutes into nibali during this years giro even tho he "soft" pedalled what? 3 mountain top finishs and a time trial? and last year nibali finished on the podium of the giro nearly a minute over evans even tho he was a last minute addition to the race who arguably wasn't at the very top of his form and was also domesticing or super domesticing for the eventual winner basso.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

HHmmm interesting, did Cadel have a 4 1/2 minute lead when Contador beat Cadel into second by 30 secs previously??

cadel beat ac by 2.30+ in the ITT km at 07' tour.

Ac was therefore about 3 minutes beter in the mountains.
The difference between the 2 has presumebly opened not closed.

The only factor helping cadel here, is that AC rode the giro.

But Schleck and a couple others are also superior climbers.

Evans has his work cut out for him. And unfortunately for him his TT weapon isn't as deadly as it once was.

Agree, an in form and recovered AC will put minutes into Cuddles in the mountains, but Gesink, JVDB, Wiggens are not the most attacking riders in the peloton.... and as for the Shack Non-Attackers... Pfft.

lol based on what? Last tour?

 

[M Sport]

HHmmm interesting, did Cadel have a 4 1/2 minute lead when Contador beat Cadel into second by 30 secs previously??

If we are quoting irrelevant statistics here then how about the year Contador beat Cadel by 45 minutes? 2009.

 

[Kender]

Don't even get me started on 2006, where Cadel was 4'11" down on OSCAR PEREIRO.

take away the stage where oscar gained 30 minutes on 1 stage because the peloton were a bunch of idiots and that statement is obsolete

 

[Parrulo]

lol based on what? Last tour?

even based on last year's tour VdB2 was one of the most aggressive riders lol july sure is a funny month here

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

take away the stage where oscar gained 30 minutes on 1 stage because the peloton were a bunch of idiots and that statement is obsolete

Evans was still clobbered by Floyd Landis.

Evans does not have the class to win by strength. He needs luck. It could happen. Contador might be tired from the Giro. Schleck might not reach the extraterrestrial form that he magically manages to reach once per season. Either one could crash. There is a reasonable but not large chance that Evans could win this Tour.

 

[greenedge]

That's because Floyd was doped to the eyeballs. On Alpe De Huez Cadel should have ridden his own pace. That was his 1st GT as leader as well. In 2009 cadel had a bad GT admittedly but let's dismiss it as that. Base it on what he is doing this yr and has so far performed. He looks impressive and could carry on from last year's gap of 1:30 over Contador, but will hopefully have no crashes. That is a good buffer and anything could happen. JVDB had hard luck for him in the TTT hopefully he can be aggresive in the mountains.

 

[Spider1964]

even based on last year's tour VdB2 was one of the most aggressive riders lol july sure is a funny month here

Right? Whatever? Still think Cuddles finishes in front of VDB the lesser and Gesink. Sorry for finding a reason to (semi) support Cuddles. I'm sure the road will decide and not the forum mafia!

VDB the lesser the most attacking?? lol... Not IMO. But then opinions are fairly common around here... not always right though.

July sure is a funny month! Catch you throughout the year... you have a good day won't you

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

That's because Floyd was doped to the eyeballs. On Alpe De Huez Cadel should have ridden his own pace. That was his 1st GT as leader as well. In 2009 cadel had a bad GT admittedly but let's dismiss it as that. Base it on what he is doing this yr and has so far performed. He looks impressive and could carry on from last year's gap of 1:30 over Contador, but will hopefully have no crashes. That is a good buffer and anything could happen. JVDB had hard luck for him in the TTT hopefully he can be aggresive in the mountains.

Evans always has an excuse. I punctured at the wrong time. I fell and got a hangnail. I got sick. The winner was doped just like the rest of the top ten. Oh, woe is me. If it happened once then that would be one thing, but it happens every grand tour. Evans is the Australian George Hincapie. He never has what it takes to win the big one.

Personally I would not mind seeing Evans win, but it is a long shot.

 

[Dermie]

wasn't that back in 2007 when contador was 24 and evans 30? so one still developing himself as a rider and the other at the absolute top of his game (a game that he hasn't shown in what? 3 seasons?) for the mountains+ itt if contador is indeed in good shape evans would need like 10 minutes because if contador needs that kind of time he will for it and get it.

btw you proly don't know about this because. . . well because there isn't cycling outside july but contador put 7 minutes into nibali during this years giro even tho he "soft" pedalled what? 3 mountain top finishs and a time trial? and last year nibali finished on the podium of the giro nearly a minute over evans even tho he was a last minute addition to the race who arguably wasn't at the very top of his form and was also domesticing or super domesticing for the eventual winner basso.

Cycling outside July! even if I was racing with tdf riders (Colin Lewis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lewis) before Eddy started winning.
I am basing a lot of my opinions on the FACTS that stranger things have happened in the the toughest bike race on the planet than a guy winning who has placed well in it before, & is on form & has a good team. There are many riders who had it in the bag during the race, or were shoe ins before the race but looked very glum looking up at the podium from the crowd. Cadels got a lot of fight in him which is why he keeps on racing the July race, and any rider with the class to get 2nd in the tdf has got the class to go one better.
I did'nt put him as a dead cert!!!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

in this field and on this course he wouldn't have taken 2nd in 08 or 07 either.

 

[Spider1964]

Cycling outside July! even if I was racing with tdf riders (Colin Lewis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lewis) before Eddy started winning.
I am basing a lot of my opinions on the FACTS that stranger things have happened in the the toughest bike race on the planet than a guy winning who has placed well in it before, & is on form & has a good team. There are many riders who had it in the bag during the race, or were shoe ins before the race but looked very glum looking up at the podium from the crowd. Cadels got a lot of fight in him which is why he keeps on racing the July race, and any rider with the class to get 2nd in the tdf has got the class to go one better.
I did'nt put him as a dead cert!!!

Hey Dermie... now don't go introducing FACTS to these here forums.. lightning will strike you down

Nice BIO BTW. Always interesting to have ex-riders posting.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Interesting look inside the BMC Team car during the TTT.

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/video/494137/BMC-Team-Car

 

[UpTheRoad]

The majority of the wind comes from this forum. Anyone with half a brain knows that Evans will lose time to Contador. Contador has to make up over one and a half minutes. If he keeps taking time out of Evans but can't shake off Schleck it comes down to the time trial. Contador would have to do the ride of his life to make up 90 seconds on Schleck. He could not put 90 seconds into Schleck last year and this year he has the Giro in his legs also. Schleck would have to do a Rasmussen to lose the race. Evans can afford to lose time to Contador on some stages but also has to worry about losing time to Schleck so it will be difficult. No one seems to consider that it is also possible for Schleck or Contador to have a bad day which Gesink, Evans and co would be hoping for. I doubt that Contador will dominate every mountain stage as some people seem to think and if he keeps dragging Schleck along with him I don't think he can win. He is a very good time triallist but he is not Cancellara. I can't see a Leipheimer/Cunego Tour De Suisse scenario developing in the TT.

In 2009, AC took 63 seconds out of AS at Arcalis and Verbier. If he can do the same in 2011, he will only have to make up roughly 40 seconds in the TT. Definitely doable.

Even with the Giro effort, I don't think AC will have his 2010 form, and who knows what kind of form AS is in? People expect him to match his form from last year, and he might have peaked correctly again this year, but that is still to be determined.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Interesting look inside the BMC Team car during the TTT.

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/video/494137/BMC-Team-Car

Interesting, thank you

 

[M Sport]

I am basing a lot of my opinions on the FACTS that stranger things have happened in the the toughest bike race on the planet than a guy winning who has placed well in it before, & is on form & has a good team. There are many riders who had it in the bag during the race, or were shoe ins before the race but looked very glum looking up at the podium from the crowd.

That rider is Cadel, twice he was the favorite or should have had it in the bag and threw it away, looking up at the top step of the podium when he could have been there.

It's just not going to happen for him, if he was 27 or 28 he may have a chance in the future but even then I doubt it. Only one rider in the last 80 years has converted two second places into a future tour win (Joop Zoetemelk), statistically winners don't go through more than one second place and then win. Add to that the age factor and his temperament and really he is relying on something akin to a perfect storm to win, 4-5 riders will have to fall over from here for that to happen.

 

[just some guy]

That rider is Cadel, twice he was the favorite or should have had it in the bag and threw it away, looking up at the top step of the podium when he could have been there.

It's just not going to happen for him, if he was 27 or 28 he may have a chance in the future but even then I doubt it. Only one rider in the last 80 years has converted two second places into a future tour win (Joop Zoetemelk), statistically winners don't go through more than one second place and then win. Add to that the age factor and his temperament and really he is relying on something akin to a perfect storm to win, 4-5 riders will have to fall over from here for that to happen.

Andys screwed then as well.

 

[M Sport]

Andys screwed then as well.

Let's hope so

Realistically he's probably the best chance of breaking the jinx.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Interesting, thank you

Did you find it funny how Lelangue was continually yelling at all the riders to go in front of Santaromita after their turns from the 2nd km?

 

[No_Balls]

That's because Floyd was doped to the eyeballs. On Alpe De Huez Cadel should have ridden his own pace. That was his 1st GT as leader as well. In 2009 cadel had a bad GT admittedly but let's dismiss it as that. Base it on what he is doing this yr and has so far performed. He looks impressive and could carry on from last year's gap of 1:30 over Contador, but will hopefully have no crashes. That is a good buffer and anything could happen. JVDB had hard luck for him in the TTT hopefully he can be aggresive in the mountains.

And what has he done so far that is so impressive? Stayed on the bike?