Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Menchov has more GTs to his credit than Evans but that's it. Look at when they have been in the thick of things togther. Who takes responsibility, not Menchov. There are several occasions where they have been the "hang close and take back time in the TT" contenders in the group chasing and it was always down to Evans to do the chasing with maybe a few lackluster pulls from Menchov in the final K or 2. Maybe I'm just thinking of the Alpe D'Huez in '08, but it seems to me this has happened on three or four occasions.

Menchov was cooked because he was the only one who tried to follow Sastre's attack. He was happy to be in the Evans group after that.

But yes, on other occasions he has failed to take responsibility. It's as if he loses his motivation if can't win anymore. For the stage OR for GC. Evans always gives it his all. No matter what. Different personalities, that's what it boils down to.

 

[greenedge]

The only time Menchov has beaten Evans at the TDF was in 10. And Evans crashed ( hairline fracture ) And he had the yellow jersey. And he's won the rainbow jersey. And he has now won the yellow jersey.

 

[theyoungest]

The only time Menchov has beaten Evans at the TDF was in 10. And Evans crashed ( hairline fracture ) And he had the yellow jersey. And he's won the rainbow jersey. And he has now won the yellow jersey.

Yes. He's clearly more allround, and more dedicated when things don't go his way (in which case Menchov simply gives up).

But he won the yellow jersey when Menchov wasn't even there. I think it's ridiculous that Menchov didn't get invited to this year's Tour. He deserved to be there, and a Menchov on top form could have challenged Evans IMO.

 

[Zoncolan]

Menchov on top form could have challenged Evans IMO.

Based on physical performance, yes.
But seriously, with all those crashes, do you really think Menchov would be one of the few favorites not to lose time?
GT wise, I'd say they are at similar level. Overall, Cadel is way better.

 

[El Pistolero]

Based on physical performance, yes.
But seriously, with all those crashes, do you really think Menchov would be one of the few favorites not to lose time?
GT wise, I'd say they are at similar level. Overall, Cadel is way better.

Same could have been said about Cadel Evans.

 

[uphillstruggle]

Evans is a better cyclist than Menchov because Evans is very good at 1 day races too and because Evans targets many races in 1 season.

.

So is Valverde a better cyclist than Contador?

 

[cineteq]

So is Valverde a better cyclist than Contador?

So Valverde = Menchov?

 

[HiCadence]

I'd like to see Evan's do a Giro - Tour double and see where he end's up in the top 10.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'd like to see Evan's do a Giro - Tour double and see where he end's up in the top 10.

Nowhere as seen last year.

 

[woodie]

Nowhere as seen last year.

I daresay a broken elbow didn't help.

 

[El Pistolero]

I daresay a broken elbow didn't help.

I daresay he didn't have a broken elbow. He had the very same injury as Contador in the Giro 2008 in fact. But keep on using bull**** arguments.

 

[just some guy]

I daresay he didn't have a broken elbow. He had the very same injury as Contador in the Giro 2008 in fact. But keep on using bull**** arguments.

Trolling again El Pisti

Bored are you ?

 

[woodie]

I daresay he didn't have a broken elbow. He had the very same injury as Contador in the Giro 2008 in fact. But keep on using bull**** arguments.

For the record I don't think Cadel could do a Giro Tour double and there's no need to attack me. Calm down. He had a fractured arm.

This whole thread is rediculous really, so he didn't mention Contador, big woop, everyone knows, including Cadel, that if Contador can race next season he will be a threat.

 

[The Hitch]

So is Valverde a better cyclist than Contador?

I actually have argued that in the past. See best rider in every nation thread where I chose Valverde over Contador for Spain.

But the point is that Menchov and Evans are similar in gts whereas Contador is clearly way better than Valverde.

So Evans creates an advantage over Menchov in 1 day races whereas Valverde limits his losses to Contador in that department. Valverde also has a way way way better sprint, but Contador a better tt.

ATM i would probably give the edge to Contador, but we will see how it goes next season.

 

[El Pistolero]

For the record I don't think Cadel could do a Giro Tour double and there's no need to attack me. Calm down. He had a fractured arm.

This whole thread is rediculous really, so he didn't mention Contador, big woop, everyone knows, including Cadel, that if Contador can race next season he will be a threat.

He had a hairline fracture. I'm just answering your question: he already has done the Giro-Tour double, there are no excuses for it. Contador also crashed this Tour, part of the game. Contador also won the Giro back in 2008 with a similar injury.

 

[woodie]

He had a hairline fracture. I'm just answering your question: he already has done the Giro-Tour double, there are no excuses for it. Contador also crashed this Tour, part of the game. Contador also won the Giro back in 2008 with a similar injury.

I meant win them both. No there aren't excuses but there are reasons as to why either of them didn't perform to the best of their ability.

I didn't know that, full respect to Contador for that.

 

[El Pistolero]

I meant win them both. No there aren't excuses but there are reasons as to why either of them didn't perform to the best of their ability.

I didn't know that, full respect to Contador for that.

If the Giro was as easy as in 2009 and the Tour as easy as it is next year and if there was no Contador then Evans could win both. Otherwise never.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I daresay he didn't have a broken elbow. He had the very same injury as Contador in the Giro 2008 in fact. But keep on using bull**** arguments.

A hairline fracture is a break. To say that Evans had a broken elbow is factually correct. But yes, so did Contador when he won his 1st Giro. And Tyler Hamilton finished 4th in the TDF with a broken collarbone. Two hairline fractures, in his case.

 

[Angliru]

A hairline fracture is a break. To say that Evans had a broken elbow is factually correct. But yes, so did Contador when he won his 1st Giro. And Tyler Hamilton finished 4th in the TDF with a broken collarbone. Two hairline fractures, in his case.

Sammy Sanchez suffered a fairly serious fall on the Tourmalet stage of the 2010 Tour, resulting in a fracture of some kind, fought back to regain his position with the elite contenders, and still managed to finish the stage in the top 5 and hold on to his hopes of a podium finish.

 

[uphillstruggle]

So Valverde = Menchov?

No Valverde = Evans.

I see your argument Hitch and it seems reasonable to me. I suppose the question as to who is the best cyclist of the two comes down to your value judgement about the all rounder vs the dominant specialist. I think it's fair enough to say that Contador is the best GT rider of his generation and Valverde is the best all rounder. However, I would say most hold the best GT rider to be the best cyclist at the time.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If the Giro was as easy as in 2009 and the Tour as easy as it is next year and if there was no Contador then Evans could win both. Otherwise never.

Nobody in the péloton is doing the double with only five weeks between the Mortirolo-Stelvio double and the Grand Départ, even if the Tour parcours is one of the worst in living memory.

Evans was in the lead when his injury came to light in the Tour, sure, but that was after coming 5th and running out of steam in the Giro, and if you realistically think he could have stayed with Contador and Schleck, or even a relatively fresh Sánchez and Menchov, after fighting like a dog in the Ardennes and through the Giro, you are seriously optimistic about Cadel Evans' abilities.

 

[biker jk]

I'd like to see Evan's do a Giro - Tour double and see where he end's up in the top 10.

Yes, there's no doubt that Evans lacks the "performance" that allows Contador to achieve such feats.

 

[usedtobefast]

Evans win was a 1 off. he is a good guy. works hard. Alberto is just that much better.

 

[greenedge]

If Evans did have the yellow jersey/ no fracture Alberto and Andy would have had to work quite hard and attack. No silly dropping back behind Menchov and Samu allowed.

I am not saying Evans would have won the TDF that year ( Andy raced a good race ) exceptions being prologue, okish ITT, Mechanical problems, Frank and not being able to drop Contador on the Tourmalet and he was probably the form rider there that year, if only because of the fact Contador was not as strong.

I think Evans knew he would be tired but even so he still raced a tactically good race in 10. He still might have got in the top 5 if not for the hairline fracture. I think if he got to the point of having yellow and no crash he could have held on a bit.

Also Evans endurance is quite good. He did not race many GT's at younger ages and he has done 2 GT's a year quite constantly. He also competes at the WC and Olympics and gives a good showing of himself at races like T-A, F-W the Dauphinie.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans got into the maillot jaune by virtue of doing decently on the cobbles and not being dropped by more than 10 seconds on Morzine, a climb where pretty much no major contender save for Armstrong and Wiggins lost more than ten seconds. No way was Evans, after one of the toughest GTs in years, and after the great Ardennes campaign he had, holding on to Andy and Alberto on Madeleine. Sánchez left the others there too. Evans ran out of steam in the Giro, and he would have had even less left in the tank at the Tour. He's a much smarter rider now than he used to be, but his best double-GT showing is 2nd in the Tour, 4th in the Vuelta (in 2007) - and that in a pretty light Vuelta route. And of course, the Tour péloton is much faster than the Vuelta péloton, which is one of the main reasons the Tour-Vuelta double is perceived as much more doable than the Giro-Tour one.

Evans would have been 5th at absolute best in the 2010 Tour. Remember the guy that beat him in that horrendously difficult Giro? The guy that hadn't had to do it off the back of a tough Ardennes campaign? The guy that didn't have an injury? He finished 32nd at the Tour. Sastre, by contrast, had a difficult time of the Giro and finished 8th. But he'd had next to no other racing, and still could only manage 20th at the Tour.

Evans is good. He's really good. Sometimes even phenomenal. But he's not bionic. And that's before we consider that the 2010 BMC support team, well, half of it wasn't ready for ONE Grand Tour, let alone two. I place the 2010 Evans in the lower half of the top 10 at the Tour at best. Not because I don't rate him, but because I think people who think he'd have been in the top 5 or contending for the win really undersell how hard he'd had to work in his 41 race days to that point. Basso had roughly the same amount of race days, but had basically hidden in the péloton until we got to Trentino. Evans had been fighting for the win Down Under, at Tirreno-Adriatico, at the Critérium International and the Ardennes before we got to the Giro. His team needed him to. There's only so much recovery a man can have.

What about Vino? I hear you ask. He was 6th at the Giro and managed 16th at the Tour whilst being a super-domestique! Yes, but despite his successful season, he really hadn't shown his face in much until Trentino; he did hold his form impressively, admittedly, from LBL and through the Giro, but like Evans he faded from contention in the final week at the Giro, and he wasn't exactly trying to win the Tour; the pressure was off so he didn't need to worry about fighting to be in the front groups on flat stages, and could let himself drop time in the mountains (especially as he wanted the stage win, so dropping time was actually beneficial to this goal). Vino was successful at the Tour precisely because he didn't have that weight of expectation. And he still only managed 16th.