Evans isn't planning on winning in geelong, just showing up, his new attacking style isn't going to help him outsprint...well...anyone. Not a pure sprinters course but not far off it.
As far as winning the Tour goes, I don't rule him out, he was confident after the prologue and Dauphine, but then desperate after the TTT. After last year its hard not to see AC win again and again, though AS will be stronger again this year. This year there was daylight to anyone else. Hard to see that being made up in one year by anyone else. If I were to pick next most likely...I'd honestly say Evans.
Again I say you don't need a roster of mountain men, Evans said this in 2007, when the team included mcewen. At the time he wanted 2-3. I'd like to see lloyd follow and wegelius, but they still miss that one other contender to tag team with or super domestique climber.