Cancellara

[Berzin]

Back in the Lance years I weighed an eighth of a ton and would be sore for three days after walking up 4 flights of stairs....

Quite a bombastic way of saying you were a bit overweight and out of shape. An eighth of a ton...who talks like that?

In 2007 I weighed 152 lbs. and was hammer-curling 100 with either arm. The human body is capable of stunning change under controlled adaptation. No illicit activity is required.

Hammer curling 100 lbs. with either arm at 152...yeah, riiiiiiight...

The human body is not all that capable of making such stunning progress unless you are a freak. Most average people make average gains at best.

Sorry, brother. I call BS to your little internet tale. I don't believe a word of it. This is beside the fact that you are obfuscating the actual issue at hand with this lie of yours.

 

[Anonymous]

I must say, you must be very perceptive if you can tell if he is trying. I'm sure that your ability to accurately assess the performances of other riders makes you much in demand as you possess skills that the ordinary person lacks.

ok he didnt appear to have to put in anywhere near the same effort as the others, he beat everyone by a country mile, but where as everyone else looked like they where on the limit, breathing, body motion, shoulders, etc normal physical signs that point to being on the physical limit, cancellera appeared to show any such signs, and as such appeared to me to be riding within himself...

im am one of the beleivers, one of the good guys, but today i saw something that even i find, well, the best time trialling performance i have ever seen in 30 years

 

[grumpyphil]

I believe Cancellera is clean and I've always believed it. While I wouldn't claim to be a "friend," I've met him on several occasions on a social basis and you cannot imagine anyone on earth less likely to be a doper. It's impossible to prove a negative but look at what happened today. Vino, who I'm pretty sure is getting his *** tested to death, got buried by Fabian.
The man is just super strong. Notice that he has never turned in the typical doper results...he has never gone out and buried the competition for days in a row. If the RR was tom'r and he buried everyone, I'd suspect something. Obviously that's not on the agenda and I will be hoping Spartacus gets a second gold.
In any case, he's destined to be a cycling icon.

 

[Escarabajo]

(0.69)*(0.38 m2) would put his CdA to 0.262 which I think is way too much. It is not very fruitful to try to split CdA to Cd and A because first of all these variables change depending on yaw angle and on the other hand they are pretty meaningless separated. Obviously Fab is much bigger and not in a Superman position but just for a reference Boardmans CdA for Superman position has been estimated 0.180 m2 and Indurain in his hour record would be somewhere 0.24-0.25.

Wind would change any estimate. It doesn't matter if the route is loop, the wind doesn't cancel out. Think about a situation where you have to ride against say 30 m/s wind. You won't move. It doesn't help if at another point you get that wind on your tail. Same for the climbs. Any change to completely flat and windless position slows down.

I apreciate your input. As I was writting this Irealized that Moser CdA was 0.51 x 0.42 = 0.214 and probably closer to the values that we are expecting for Cancellara. Now as I am saying this Big Boat just came in and commented that his team mate was slower than him and put 490 Watts. I don't know where he got his values from but is that's true that means that my calculations are on the lower side. I have used these combinations just by using other riders power tabs and fine tunning for this ride. Now If i used two other websites I get the following:

516 Watts (No wind)http://www.mne.psu.edu/lamancusa/ProdDiss/Bicycle/bikecalc1.htm
525 Watts (CdA = 0.2625 for a rider like Cancellara) (No Wind)
http://www.noping.net/english/

After adding some mechanical losses (3%) I get around 508 watts. If I used the Moser Factor I get 416 watts with no wind. Which I think is in the low side. There must be some hard side wind if we are going to get to the 500 watts mark.

This leads me to the second point:

Wind. The energy equation times speed gives you the power equation. This equation is not vectorial so in mathematical terms it should cancel out. In reality it does not. Because conditions are never ideal. It is impossible. You always get wind at an angle. How do i account for that? I need a power tab to fine tune it. No other way around. Besides wind conditions change over time also. Even the air could be denser or lighter after some time.

 

[BikeCentric]

I believe Cancellera is clean and I've always believed it. While I wouldn't claim to be a "friend," I've met him on several occasions on a social basis and you cannot imagine anyone on earth less likely to be a doper. It's impossible to prove a negative but look at what happened today. Vino, who I'm pretty sure is getting his *** tested to death, got buried by Fabian.
The man is just super strong. Notice that he has never turned in the typical doper results...he has never gone out and buried the competition for days in a row. If the RR was tom'r and he buried everyone, I'd suspect something. Obviously that's not on the agenda and I will be hoping Spartacus gets a second gold.
In any case, he's destined to be a cycling icon.

He already is an icon; he's been the best TT'er in the sport for about 4 years now and a darn good Classics rider as well.

What we believe about him or think of his personality has nothing to do with whether he does or does not do PED's as we've seen demonstrated by countless cyclists in the past.

Now personally I will give him the benefit of the doubt because: yes he puts out huge power but he is big musclebound guy and puts out huge flat-ground power; he cannot climb up long grades as one would expect from a big strong TT'er. Would it surprise me if he tests positive for something? Not in the least; a lot of these guys test positive very often and it should no longer be a surprise to anyone that knows anything about the sport.

 

[Escarabajo]

(0.69)*(0.38 m2) would put his CdA to 0.262 which I think is way too much. It is not very fruitful to try to split CdA to Cd and A because first of all these variables change depending on yaw angle and on the other hand they are pretty meaningless separated. Obviously Fab is much bigger and not in a Superman position but just for a reference Boardmans CdA for Superman position has been estimated 0.180 m2 and Indurain in his hour record would be somewhere 0.24-0.25.

Wind would change any estimate. It doesn't matter if the route is loop, the wind doesn't cancel out. Think about a situation where you have to ride against say 30 m/s wind. You won't move. It doesn't help if at another point you get that wind on your tail. Same for the climbs. Any change to completely flat and windless position slows down.

I apreciate your input. As I was writting this Irealized that Moser CdA was 0.51 x 0.42 = 0.214 and probably closer to the values that we are expecting for Cancellara. Now as I am saying this Big Boat just came in and commented that his team mate was slower than him and put 490 Watts. I don't know where he got his values from but is that's true that means that my calculations are on the lower side. I have used these combinations just by using other riders power tabs and fine tunning for this ride. Now If i used two other websites I get the following:

516 Watts (No wind)http://www.mne.psu.edu/lamancusa/ProdDiss/Bicycle/bikecalc1.htm
525 Watts (CdA = 0.2625 calculated in the website for a rider like Cancellara) (No Wind)
http://www.noping.net/english/

After adding some mechanical losses (3%) I get around 508 watts. If I used the Moser Factor I get 416 watts with no wind. Which I think is in the low side. There must be some hard side wind if we are going to get to the 500 watts mark.

This leads me to the second point:

Wind. The energy equation times speed gives you the power equation. This equation is not vectorial so in mathematical terms it should cancel out. In reality it does not. So you are correct. Because conditions are never ideal. It is impossible. You always get wind at an angle. How do i account for that? I need a power tab to fine tune it. No other way around. Besides wind conditions change over time also. Even the air could be denser or lighter after some time. So the best way to estimate Cancellara's power is by using somebody else power tab information that was riding the same time trial.

A rule of thumb for calculating frontal area in m2 is as follows:

(0.007184*(Weight, Kg^0.425)*((Height, cm)^0.725))*(1/2)*(0.36)

It is just an aproximation.

 

[Anonymous]

Would it surprise me if he tests positive for something? Not in the least; a lot of these guys test positive very often and it should no longer be a surprise to anyone that knows anything about the sport.

i think thats my point of view.. if he tested positive tommoro i wouldnt be surprised, but i would be very very dissapointed

 

[karlboss]

Your ball park power figures calculating using speed as the basis are going to get close, but reveal frustrating little. I could guess his power would have been up around the 500W mark. Any wind on an out and back or loop slows you down, not cancel out.
You can't tell how hard a guy is going by watching. Think about all the times you see someone sitting comfortably on a climb and then all of a sudden they aren't there any more, or the other way a guy who struggles but hangs in forever. It takes plenty of effort not to rock your shoulders so the guy sitting still is just better disciplined not going easier.
Most impressive TT for me Ullrich 2003.

Hammer curling 100lbs at 152...I know some gymnasts, they couldn't do it and still call it a hammer curl. I see your point, little different for elite athletes supposedly already close to that ideal mark of power and weight.

I think sparticus could be a tour rider, but he'd have to take a chance and drop muscle. It has worked for some in the past, but he is on the gravy train able to reliably win TTs and take the odd classic.

 

[BigBoat]

The Tour of California TT power data showed the "lesser" TT rider Cancellara's man Gustov Larsson average 486 watts to a 3rd place finish was it....Then a bunch of what I'd call excuses as to why his power was so high sprouted; RE: THe SRM wouldnt zero, Gustov weighs more than whats listed on his webpage; etc, etc.

 

[workingclasshero]

I believe Cancellera is clean and I've always believed it. While I wouldn't claim to be a "friend," I've met him on several occasions on a social basis and you cannot imagine anyone on earth less likely to be a doper

oh that's right it's you with the wife who was getting ........ hmm, won't go there again

 

[usedtobefast]

it's that great swiss cheese he eats.

 

[Anonymous]

it's that great swiss cheese he eats.

gruyere?...

 

[Willow22]

Thanks Escarabajo for doing the calc's. Even though it can't be totally 100%accurate without knowing exact wind etc., I think it is still worthwhile and interesting to look at. Out of curiousity, say it is 6.2w/kg, is that feasible for a clean athlete over a 1hr effort? From memory of the contador thread i think yes, but not sure so thought i'd ask.

 

[Escarabajo]

Thanks Escarabajo for doing the calc's. Even though it can't be totally 100%accurate without knowing exact wind etc., I think it is still worthwhile and interesting to look at. Out of curiousity, say it is 6.2w/kg, is that feasible for a clean athlete over a 1hr effort? From memory of the contador thread i think yes, but not sure so thought i'd ask.

Not only in that thread, but in the other thread where they discussed how much power can a clean rider put out, it is discussed about some high marks established by other riders like Greg Lemond and Eddy Merckx. I know Merckx marked around 452 watts for his hour record. That put him around 6.2-6.3 Watts/Kg. Greg in an interviewed said that he could put around 450 watts at the beginning of a Tour. So that would put him around the same neighborhood. Other numbers post 1990 would be pure speculation IMHO.
I have these two riders as my benchmark for good reasons already discussed.

Here is the interview with Greg Lemond

http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/oralhistory/lemond.html

Having said that, if Cancellara don't share his power files we will truly never know for sure what his power output is. The calculation for a time trial is a little trickier than the one done for the mountains. We can only rely on the power done by other rider if we have one.

 

[Willow22]

Not only in that thread, but in the other thread where they discussed how much power can a clean rider put out, it is discussed about some high marks established by other riders like Greg Lemond and Eddy Merckx. I know Merckx marked around 452 watts for his hour record. That put him around 6.2-6.3 Watts/Kg. Greg in an interviewed said that he could put around 450 watts at the beginning of a Tour. So that would put him around the same neighborhood. Other numbers post 1990 would be pure speculation IMHO.
I have these two riders as my benchmark for good reasons already discussed.

Thanks man, it's nice to know there's some hope.

 

[No Chain]

Congrats to Spartacus. Great performance.

 

[_frost]

I apreciate your input. As I was writting this Irealized that Moser CdA was 0.51 x 0.42 = 0.214 and probably closer to the values that we are expecting for Cancellara.

I'd put him around 0.23-0.24 (this is just a wild guess). Any guess is worth just a guess. Body shape has effect in addition to body size. What I have sometimes taken a note is how others have to pedal hard to follow Cancellara in straight downhill stretch (see eg. 2008 TDF). It should be the other way the lead man in a downhill should pedal like grazy and others just relax on the slipstream. This would suggest that Fab is more slippery than his size lets understand. Obviously judging something based on few seconds on tv-screen is a very bad argument for anything.

Now as I am saying this Big Boat just came in and commented that his team mate was slower than him and put 490 Watts. I don't know where he got his values from but is that's true that means that my calculations are on the lower side.

That's from Gustav-Erik Larsson's ToC ITT, eg. here
http://www.velonews.com/article/88344/gustav-larsson-s-third-place-power-data-from-the-solvang

This leads me to the second point:

Wind. The energy equation times speed gives you the power equation. This equation is not vectorial so in mathematical terms it should cancel out. In reality it does not. So you are correct. Because conditions are never ideal. It is impossible. You always get wind at an angle. How do i account for that? I need a power tab to fine tune it. No other way around. Besides wind conditions change over time also. Even the air could be denser or lighter after some time. So the best way to estimate Cancellara's power is by using somebody else power tab information that was riding the same time trial.

You are right about the mathematics of the power equation but just think about it for a sec. You forget the very simple and obvious! In a climb, headwind, bad road, whatever is the obstacle that slows you down, you spent more time than you can gain back having equivalent speed advantage back in a downhill, tailwind,etc. Riding at 10 m/s for 10km and then back 20m/s for another 10km does not equal 15 m/s average it is 20000m/[(10000m/10m/s)+(10000m/20m/s)] = 13.33m/s

 

[El Imbatido]

I believe Cancellera is clean and I've always believed it. While I wouldn't claim to be a "friend," I've met him on several occasions on a social basis and you cannot imagine anyone on earth less likely to be a doper.

I am not claiming he is a doper and for the sake of the sport i hope he isn't. But that argument makes no sense to me. Tyler Hamilton is a great example. One of the nicest guys but also was busted for PED's. Floyd Landis is also another example. Apparently a really nice guy but again did PEDs

 

[Anonymous]

I am not claiming he is a doper and for the sake of the sport i hope he isn't. But that argument makes no sense to me. Tyler Hamilton is a great example. One of the nicest guys but also was busted for PED's. Floyd Landis is also another example. Apparently a really nice guy but again did PEDs

agreed.. i dont think ive met him and hes a lovely guy, sadly in this day and age is proof that someone isnt doping.. ive met linford christie.. he was a lovely guy too..

 

[peloton]

ive always beleived cancellera was the best, and generally think he is clean

but today.. good god, he went past people like they werent there, peddaling at speeds i dont think ive ever seen, effortless, without even trying, no breathing, nothing, i have never seen someone so easily and singlehandedly destroy everyone..

that in itself gives me doubts.. id love to beleive, but today just, well my jaw dropped and i sat there staring at the tv unable to beleive what i was seeing..

This is exactly how I feel too. I want to believe, but I have never seen so dominant performance before.

 

[issoisso]

agreed.. i dont think ive met him and hes a lovely guy, sadly in this day and age is proof that someone isnt doping.. ive met linford christie.. he was a lovely guy too..

It's nothing to do with "this day and age", really. Some of the nicest guys you can think of in the history of sport were busted for doping. Pollentier was arguably the nicest, most altruistic sportsman you can find anywhere....he got busted trying to swap his urine with someone else's.

It's one of those myths that couldn't be further from the truth "he can't be doped, he's a nice guy/honest guy". It's right up there with "He looks like he's suffering, so he can't be doped". But in the end those two facts have as much to do with the rider being dopes as whether or not he likes raspberry juice

 

[issoisso]

agreed.. i dont think ive met him and hes a lovely guy, sadly in this day and age is proof that someone isnt doping.. ive met linford christie.. he was a lovely guy too..

Right on, but it's nothing to do with "this day and age" specifically. Some of the nicest guys you can think of in the history of sport were busted for doping. Pollentier was arguably the nicest, most altruistic sportsman you can find anywhere....he got busted trying to swap his urine with someone else's.

It's one of those myths that couldn't be further from the truth "he can't be doped, he's a nice guy/honest guy". It's right up there with "He looks like he's suffering, so he can't be doped". But in the end those two facts have as much to do with the rider being doped as whether or not he likes raspberry juice

 

[Izoard]

Given his history in the TT, the course, the location, and his strength (which is, umm, his strenth!), I'll give FC the benefit of the doubt. At least for now.

Having said this, I can feel your doubt dimspace. I too get skeptical with every "superhuman" performance I see, so I get a bit concerned when I see such a thorough smackdown on others. But I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt ...

Now, on the other hand. If AC or LL rode the TT and were anywhere close to FC, I'd really believe that (sarcasm x2)

 

[Escarabajo]

I'd put him around 0.23-0.24 (this is just a wild guess). Any guess is worth just a guess. Body shape has effect in addition to body size. What I have sometimes taken a note is how others have to pedal hard to follow Cancellara in straight downhill stretch (see eg. 2008 TDF). It should be the other way the lead man in a downhill should pedal like grazy and others just relax on the slipstream. This would suggest that Fab is more slippery than his size lets understand. Obviously judging something based on few seconds on tv-screen is a very bad argument for anything.

Point well taken. just using a number similar to Indurains CdA of 0.23 I get around 453 watts. This power with no wind.

We are still left with empty hands because of the wind conditions (?). I could swing the calculations back over 500 watts. But if there was not much wind, 453 watts is absolutely very doable for a big guy like Cancellara.

That's from Gustav-Erik Larsson's ToC ITT, eg. here
http://www.velonews.com/article/88344/gustav-larsson-s-third-place-power-data-from-the-solvang

It won't work. Different conditions. The only thing that we can get from this is his max power and power/weight ratio numbers as a reference. But we can not use these numbers to tune Cancellara's power numbers.

You are right about the mathematics of the power equation but just think about it for a sec. You forget the very simple and obvious! In a climb, headwind, bad road, whatever is the obstacle that slows you down, you spent more time than you can gain back having equivalent speed advantage back in a downhill, tailwind,etc. Riding at 10 m/s for 10km and then back 20m/s for another 10km does not equal 15 m/s average it is 20000m/[(10000m/10m/s)+(10000m/20m/s)] = 13.33m/s

You are thinking speed. Need to do the calculations with energy values.

 

[_frost]

You are thinking speed. Need to do the calculations with energy values.

Explain?

Example out and back 20km route, CdA 0.25, mass 80Kg, windspeed 5m/s, slope 0, Rho 1.226, crr 0.004, constant power 300w

Headwind speed: 9,02m/s, time spent 1108.65 s
Tailwind speed: 15.35m/s, time spent 651.55 s
Total time: 1760.20 s
Average speed: 11.36 m/s

Same with no wind: speed = average speed 11.97 m/s

More wind - more difference until at some point the headwind is so strong that you actually move backwards (well in theory)

(Calculated with my own Vba function so might be a bit inaccurate)